FitzPatrick 1932

FitzPatrick 1932 is an early paper in the field of bankruptcy prediction. In a series of three articles in the monthly The Certified Public Accountant in 1932, Paul J. FitzPatrick presented data for 20 matched pairs of firms and discussed accounting ratios as indicators of bankruptcy. It is historically significant as an early attempt in this field, and it is notable also for its publishing a data set, now in the public domain. Beaver (1968), an important paper in accounting research which employs statistical analysis to a similar matched sample, cites the paper.

The dataset includes 13 accounting ratios calculated for 40 firms for each of three years. However some fields are missing for some firm-year observations.

Example data
Pair I.D. Survive? Industry Current ratio Quick ratio Net worth to fixed assets
1 0 Meat-packing 734 302 111
1 1 Meat-packing 426 221 121
2 0 Confections manufacture and sale 211 70 244
2 1 Confections manufacture and sale 629 312 298
3 0 Cereals manufacture and sale 85 42 47
3 1 Cereals manufacture and sale 493 261 177
4 0 Pianos manufacture and sale 203 91 287
4 1 Pianos manufacture and sale 793 544 621
5 0 Writing paper manuf and sale 468 197 187
5 1 Writing paper manuf and sale 286 144 178
6 0 Cane sugar and bananas prodn and sale 26 11 38
6 1 Cane sugar and bananas prodn and sale 139 133 110
7 0 Agriculture implement manufacturers 156 46 91
7 1 Agriculture implement manufacturers 325 126 225
8 0 Rubber footwear manufacture 287 196 210
8 1 Rubber footwear manufacture 223 132 260
9 0 Phonographs and records manufacture 138 54 114
9 1 Phonographs and records manufacture 414 226 261
10 0 Rubber tire industry 328 165 270
10 1 Rubber tire industry 347 160 258
11 0 Fish products production and sale 160 49 232
11 1 Fish products production and sale 135 47 100
12 0 Cotton textile industry of New England 282 66 124
12 1 Cotton textile industry of New England 392 133 134
13 0 Cotton textile industry of New England 99 71 75
13 1 Cotton textile industry of New England 160 65 142
14 0 Collars and shirts manufacture 2525 1275 118
14 1 Collars and shirts manufacture 2764 1541 591
15 0 Phonographs and records manufacture 274 153 304
15 1 Phonographs and records manufacture 555 351 345
16 0 Cotton textile industry of New England 51 22 78
16 1 Cotton textile industry of New England 171 49 129
17 0 Woolen textile industry 507 103 274
17 1 Woolen textile industry 226 55 261
18 0 Fertilizer manufacture 195 153 100
18 1 Fertilizer manufacture 761 573 125
19 0 Steel products manufacture 619 160 38
19 1 Steel products manufacture 584 216 144
20 0 Wholesale merchandise business 191 84 537
20 1 Wholesale merchandise business 170 109 635

References

FitzPatrick, Paul J., Ph.D. 1932. "A Comparison of the Ratios of Successful Industrial Enterprises With Those of Failed Companies". The Certified Public Accountant Beaver 1968. Journal of Accounting Research. (In three issues: October, 1932, p. 598-605; November, 1932, p. 656-662; December, 1932, p. 727-731.


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