Jeannine Bailliu

Jeannine Bailliu co-authored this research with her colleagues Mark Kruger, Argyn Toktamyssov and Wheaton Welbourn. Bailliu et al. (2016) used a Cobb-Douglas production function to forecast the growth of the Chinese economy to 2030. They used four key determinants: capital stock growth, labour growth, human capital growth and total factor productivity (TFP) growth.[2] Their research suggests that the Chinese economy is expected to decelerate its growth from its current 7% growth rate to roughly 5% by 2030. Their attribute this slow down in growth to a decrease in future investments.

Baillui and colleague Patrick Blagrave analyze the factors behind shocks in the Chinese economy and how these shocks effect the G-3 countries, United States, the euro area and Japan[8] Firstly, Baillui et al. (2010) find that foreign demand shocks are larger in China than other industrialized countries. This is namely due to the fact that China has a very open economy[8] and one of the world's largest manufacturers. Henceforth, demand shocks from the international market will greatly impact the Chinese economy. In addition, their research also suggests that real equilibrium exchange rates are not only a large driving force for the Chinese economy but for the international market as well. Lastly, Baillui et al. (2010) argue that China's economy adapts slower to shocks than other developed countries because their monetary policy is not as effective as the real exchange rate.[8]

Jeannine Bailliu and Christopher Hajzler suggest that growth in Emerging Market Economies (EME's) has slowed down since this 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Bailliu and Hajzler present structural reforms that could help increase productivity and thus help stimulate a substantial amount of growth following the financial crisis. Their research suggests that trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) liberalization, and strengthening property rights are key factors contributing to growth.[3] Bailliu and Hajzler also suggest that investments in infrastructure and reforms to product market regulation (PMR)[3] impact the level of growth in EME's. They mainly focus their research on emerging market economies such as China, India, Mexico, Brazil and Turkey.

In a conference held by the Bank of Canada in November 2000, Jeannine Bailliu and Robert Lafrance, and Jean-François Perrault presented a paper called "Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Growth in Emerging Markets."[4] They examine how exchange rates effect economic growth in 25 emerging market economies. Their findings suggest that flexible exchange rates are correlated with robust economic growth only when countries liberalize capital flows and already have an existing well-developed financial market.[4]

In July 2000, Bailliu published her paper on capital flows and economic growth in developing countries. Using data from 40 developing countries from 1975–95, Bailliu concludes that inward capital flows are positively correlated with economic growth in developing countries only when the country's domestic financial system is developed and stable.[9] She suggests that inward capital flows will have negative effects on economic growth if the country has a poorly developed banking system. This is because governments of countries with underdeveloped banking systems could use the capital inflows for risky rather than productive investment.[9]