Kevin Page

During the 2006 federal election campaign, the Conservative party promoted the creation of an independent Parliamentary Budget Office.[6] The position of a PBO was created through the Federal Accountability Act of 2006 when the Conservatives won the election.[6]

According to a Winnipeg Free Press, "at the time of his appointment, Page was an economist working within the Privy Council Office. He was the senior-most economist advising Prime Minister Stephen Harper." Page did not want the job as PBO but was encouraged by Harper's staff to interview for it.[7] According to the Winnipeg Free Press' Dan Lett, in his three decades with the federal government, Page had "forged a reputation as a frank, non-nonsense advisor and analyst".[7]

Page was the first Parliamentary Budget Officer, an independent officer of the Library of Parliament who reports to the Speakers of the House of Commons and Senate.[8] The Parliamentary Budget Officer's responsibilities include providing an independent analysis of the state of the economy, the nation's finances and the government's expenditure plan, and an analysis of the expenditure estimates of any government department or agency when requested to do so by a Parliamentary committee that's reviewing those estimates. The officer is also mandated to provide an estimate of costs for any proposal that falls within the jurisdiction of the Parliament of Canada.[1]

In his first two years, the PBO under Page "prepared five economic and fiscal updates and more than 20 research reports", and "provided assessments of cost estimates of policy initiatives proposed in legislation".[6] Page "appeared before both House and Senate committees on eight occasions in three years, more than most deputy ministers, let alone ministers". During that time the PBO had a budget of only $2.8-million and a staff of 11.[6] By September 2010 his staff dropped to nine.[6]

According to an article by the TBNewsWatch, during his tenure as PBO, Page "sparred with then prime minister Stephen Harper questioning "government estimates and issuing reports that [were] at odds with official [Conservative] government forecasts".[9]

Page released his fall 2008 fiscal analysis that said Canada was "headed toward a budget deficit" rejecting then-Minister of Finance, Jim Flaherty's post-election prediction that Canada "would avoid both a recession and a deficit".[7] Page's October 9, 2008 report contradicted the official federal government's estimate of the cost of the Canadian military mission in Afghanistan. The Parliamentary Budget Office report found that the cost would be from $14-billion to $18-billion by 2011 when Canadian troops would withdraw. This represents "billions more than Ottawa has estimated, and perhaps almost twice as high."[10]

In February 2009, Page challenged the federal government's optimistic budget projections with its stimulus package that he said was too small and therefore ineffective, given the severity of the Great Recession.[11]

In 2009 Canadian Business article Page was cited as saying, "There are former parliamentarians saying I should be held in contempt of Parliament and should be fired, but I’m okay with them saying that. That’s just part of the debate."[12] He has been unapologetic about his desire to give the Parliamentary Budget Office a significant role in informing Parliament and Canadians about government finances, saying "I went to the OECD, and they said the Americans have the best budget office, bar none. Why can't we be the best in five years? If that's overstepping my mandate, then I'm earning my money."[12][Notes 1]

Page published a scathing report on June 22, 2010 examining the fiscal impact of the Harper governments' Truth in Sentencing Act, a flagship of the administration's tough-on-crime agenda. The report said that the implementation of the act would cost over a billion dollars annually.[13][14]

According to Page's March 10, 2011 report, it would cost "$30 billion to buy and maintain" 65 -35 Joint Strike Fighter planes.[15][16] The federal government estimated the cost would be $9-billion.[15]

In September 2011, Page reported that federal expenditures were generally consistent with Budget 2011 plan.[17]

In February 2012, Jim Flaherty, then-Minister of Finance in the Harper government, described Page as "unbelievable, unreliable, incredible" during a "scrum with reporters". Flaherty was responding to questions about Page's PBO report that contrary to the Harper government's claim, Canada's Old Age Security (OAS) "system was sustainable" and affordable, and there was no need to "increase the age of entitlement from 65 to 67" for OAS and Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS).[18]

By December 2012 Page had taken the federal government to court to access more "information on $5.2 billion in budget cuts."[19] In June 2011 Page "sought a legal opinion on [the] power of direct request".[20] By September 2011, eleven months into the fiscal year of Budget 2012, the cabinet ministers still had submitted no spending plans representing a "$250-billion enterprise" with "80-plus departments and agencies".[20] Even the "Clerk [of the Privy Council]" said that the PBO had exceeded its mandate.[20] Page felt that the Office had a choice but to take the government to court.[20]

By September 2010, Page had announced he would not seek a second term as parliamentary budget officer.[6] Since it was established in 2008, the PBO was in a "constant battle with the federal government over his independence, inadequate budget and lack of staff".[6]

Just months before he left office, Page in an interview with iPolitics, observed changes in the way the federal government worked. In the late 1980s, with Conservative Brian Mulroney as Prime Minister, during debates on free trade or GST, "the Finance Department would release major papers on free trade impacts, calculations, there’d be a major debate. GST, the same thing: the big transition from a manufacturing sales tax. Analytical papers, lots of transparency, debate." He noted that that no longer exists.[20]

In 2013, Page was named as the Jean-Luc Pepin Research Chair, a Chair on Canadian Government honouring Jean-Luc Pépin at the University of Ottawa.[21][22]

In 2016, Page became the head of the newly created Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy (IFSD), a think tank with a focus on public finance and policy at the University of Ottawa.[23] It was funded by the Government of Ontario.[23] JLP works with a network of international and domestic organizations, such as the World Bank, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the National Governors Association.[23]

According to a 2013 Maclean's article, Page had the support of the University of Ottawa's then-President Allan Rock, to establish an institute that would "study the math of public policy", similar to the work of the Parliamentary Budget Office.[2]

In 2013, economist Philip Cross,[Notes 2] published a "scathing opinion piece" in the Financial Post, criticizing Page's alleged "partisan and adversarial style."[2][24] In a follow-up July 29, 2013 article co-published by the MLI and the Financial Post, the week after the University of Ottawa announced the creation of a "new institute to house Page as a fiscal watchdog" staffed "with current PBO members", Cross called for shutting down the PBO. Cross wrote that the launch of this institute "allows Allan Rock, ...one-time candidate for the Liberal leadership, to realize a life-long dream of heading an opposition party."[2][25][26]