Metaculus

Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions.[4] Users can contribute to the community prediction for any given question, leave comments and discuss prediction strategies with other users.[5] Users can suggest new questions which, after moderation, will be opened to the community.[6]

Users can earn points for successful predictions (or lose points for unsuccessful predictions), and track their own predictive progress.[7] The scoring awards points both for being right and for being more right than the community.[8]

In January 2020, Metaculus introduced the Bentham Prize, which awards bi-weekly monetary prizes of $300, $200 and $100 to the first, second and third most valuable user contributions.[9] The following month, Metaculus introduced the Li Wenliang prize, which awards a number of different monetary prizes to questions, forecasts and analyses related to the COVID-19 outbreak.[10]

Data scientist Max Wainwright and physicists Greg Laughlin and Anthony Aguirre launched the site in 2015.[11][12]

In June 2017, the Metaculus prediction was launched, which is a system for aggregating user's predictions.[13] The Metaculus prediction, on average, outperforms the median of the community's predictions when evaluated using the Brier or Log scoring rules.[14]

• Metaculus website