Opinion polling for the 2024 Belgian federal election

In the run up to the 2024 Belgian federal election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Belgium. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous federal election, held on 25 May 2019, to the present day. The results of the opinion polls conducted on a nationwide basis are usually split into separate numbers for the three Belgian regions. They are therefore split across the tables in the sections below, but seat projections for the Belgian Chamber are presented together.

Flanders

The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Flemish Region, and for polls conducted nationwide the part of the results related to the Flemish Region.

Date(s) conducted Polling firm Publisher Sample size N‑VA VB CD&V Open Vld sp.a Groen PVDA Others Lead Gov. Opp.
2 - 8 December 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [1] 1007 19.9% 26.3% 12.4% 12.0% 13.6% 8.1% 6.6% 1.1% 6.4% 46.1% 53.9%
2 - 8 October 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [2] 1001 22.2% 27.1% 10.6% 10.9% 13.7% 7.6% 6.0% 1.9% 4.9% 42.8% 57.2%
1 October 2020 De Croo Government formed with the Open Vld, sp.a, CD&V, Groen (Flemish), MR, PS and Ecolo (Walloon)
10 - 15 June 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [3] 951 20.0% 27.7% 11.8% 10.0% 12.5% 9.4% 7.3% 1.3% 7.7% 43.7% 56.3%
4 - 9 March 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir / De Morgen [4] 958 20.7% 28.0% 11.7% 10.3% 9.6% 8.8% 9.3% 1.9% 7.3% 40.4% 59.6%
29 Nov - 6 Dec 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [5] 999 22.1% 27.3% 11.4% 9.9% 8.9% 10.7% 8.4% 1.3% 5.2% 40.9% 59.1%
2–10 Sep 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [6] 1,000 22.7% 24.9% 11.7% 13.3% 8.4% 11.0% 6.2% 1.8% 2.2% 44.4% 55.6%
26 May 2019 federal election 25.5% 18.6% 14.2% 13.5% 10.8% 9.8% 5.6% 1.9% 6.9% 48.3% 51.6%

Wallonia

The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Walloon Region, and for polls conducted nationwide the part of the results related to the Walloon Region.

Date(s) conducted Polling firm Publisher Sample size PS MR Ecolo PTB cdH DéFI Others Lead Gov. Opp.
2 - 8 December 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [7] 995 23.2% 20.6% 15.6% 17.2% 10.3% 3.7% 9.7% 2.6% 59.4% 40.6%
2 - 8 October 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [2] 1001 21.1% 19.2% 17.8% 18.9% 9.7% 3.8% 9.5% 1.9% 58.1% 41.9%
1 October 2020 De Croo Government formed with the Open Vld, sp.a, CD&V, Groen (Flemish), MR, PS and Ecolo (Walloon)
10 - 15 June 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [3] 986 23.7% 20.5% 15.1% 18.7% 8.1% 4.7% 9.2% 3.2% 59.3% 40.7%
4 - 9 March 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir / De Morgen [4] 974 25.5% 19.6% 15.5% 18.6% 7.5% 5.1% 8.2% 5.9% 60.6% 39.4%
29 Nov - 6 Dec 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [5] 983 23.8% 20.5% 17.2% 16.5% 8.8% 4.7% 8.5% 3.3% 61.5% 38.5%
2–10 Sep 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [6] 992 22.9% 22.6% 16.2% 15.5% 8.5% 5.0% 9.3% 0.3% 61.7% 38.3%
26 May 2019 federal election 26.1% 20.5% 14.9% 13.8% 10.7% 4.1% 9.9% [nb 1] 5.6% 61.5% 38.5%

Brussels

The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Brussels Region, and for polls conducted nationwide the part of the results related to the Brussels Region.

Date(s) conducted Polling firm Publisher Sample size Ecolo PS MR PTB-
PVDA		 DéFI cdH N‑VA Open Vld VB CD&V Groen sp.a Others Lead Gov. Opp.
2 - 8 December 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [7] 533 19.5% 16.8% 15.0% 15.1% 11.5% 5.0% 4.9% 1.9% 3.7% 0.3% 2.8% 1.4% 0.6% 2.7% 57.7% 42.3%
2 - 8 October 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [2] 593 21.6% 19.1% 14.0% 12.1% 11.3% 3.2% 4.8% 2.4% 3.7% 1.7% 3.2% 2.3% 0.6% 2.5% 64.3% 35.7%
1 October 2020 De Croo Government formed with the Open Vld, sp.a, CD&V, Groen (Flemish), MR, PS and Ecolo (Walloon)
10 - 15 June 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [3] 580 19.1% 18.2% 17.4% 12.6% 10.9% 4.8% 4.9% 1.4% 3.7% 1.5% 1.8% 0.7% 3.0% 0.9% 60.1% 39.9%
4 - 9 March 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [4] 531 20.3% 20.5% 17.6% 12.2% 10.0% 3.8% 4.1% 0.9% 3.3% 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 3.6% 0.2% 63% 37%
29 Nov - 6 Dec 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [5] 526 19.7% 18.9% 16.2% 12.5% 12.0% 5.1% 4.8% 2.2% 1.9% 0.9% 2.8% 0.5% 2.2% 0.8% 61.2% 38.8%
2–10 Sep 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [6] 548 21.4% 19.2% 16.4% 11.0% 11.0% 4.9% 3.6% 2.4% 2.5% 0.2% 3.1% 1.0% 3.3% 2.2% 63.7% 36.3%
26 May 2019 Federal election[8] 21.6% 20.0% 17.5% 12.3% 10.3% 5.8% 3.2% 2.3% 1.6% 1.3% Ecolo PS 4.3% [nb 1] 1.6% 62.7% 37.3%

Seat projections

The graph and table below shows seat projections for the Belgian Chamber of Representatives when given by the reporting newspaper or polling firm.

By party
76 seats needed for majority
Date(s) conducted Polling firm Publishers N‑VA PS VB MR Ecolo CD&V Open
Vld		 PVDA-
PTB		 sp.a Groen cdH DéFI Others Lead Gov. Opp. Lead
2 - 8 December 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [9] 20 17 25 15 12 10 10 17 12 5 5 2 0 5 81 69 12
2 - 8 October 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [10][11] 21 17 25 14 14 10 10 16 12 5 4 2 0 4 82 68 14
10 - 15 June 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [12] 20 19 26 14 12 10 9 17 10 7 4 2 0 6 81 69 12
4 - 9 March 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [13] 19 19 26 14 13 10 9 19 7 8 4 2 0 7 80 70 10
29 Nov - 6 Dec 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [14] 20 18 27 14 13 10 8 18 6 9 5 2 0 7 78 72 6
2–10 Sep 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [15] 21 17 25 17 13 11 11 14 6 9 4 2 0 4 84 66 18
26 May 2019 Federal election 25 20 18 14 13 12 12 12 9 8 5 2 0 5 88 62 26

By political family

Tallies for each ideology and probable coalitions. In bold on dark grey, if the coalition commands an absolute majority, in italic on light grey, if the coalition needs DéFI's support (which implies it does not include the N-VA). + Note that "asymetrical" coalitions are now frequent: between 2007 and 2011, PS was part of each cabinet but not sp.a; and between 2014 and 2018, the Michel Government included CD&V but not cdH, as well as the N-VA, of which there is no equivalent in Wallonia.

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling
firm		 Ideologies Coalitions
Far-left Gr. Soc-
Dems		 Soc Libs Chr Dems Lib. Ntnl Cons. Far-right Left-
wing		 Big Olive Tree Olive Tree Purple-
Green [nb 2]		 Rainbow I or 'Vivaldi' + cdH National Unity Tripartite Rainbow II Purple-Yellow / Burgundy Swedish + cdH
[nb 3]		 centre-
right		 Right-
wing
02 - 10 December 2020 Ipsos 17 17 29 2 15 25 20 25 63 78 61 71 86 106 69 89 74 60 85 70
02 - 10 October 2020 Ipsos 16 19 29 2 14 24 21 25 64 78 62 71 86 107 67 88 74 59 84 70
10 - 15 June 2020 Ipsos 17 19 29 2 14 23 20 26 65 79 62 71 85 105 66 86 72 57 83 69
4 - 9 March 2020 Ipsos 19 21 26 2 14 23 19 26 66 80 61 70 84 105 63 82 68 56 82 68
29 Nov - 6 Dec 2019 ESOMAR 18 22 24 2 15 22 20 27 64 79 61 68 83 105 61 81 66 57 84 69
2–10 Sep 2019 ESOMAR 14 22 23 2 15 28 21 25 59 74 60 73 88 109 66 86 72 67 89 74
26 May 2019 Federal
Elections		 12 21 29 2 17 26 25 18 62 79 67 76 93 120 72 97 80 68 86 69

Notes
  1. Includes the People's Party, which dissolved in June 2019 after the elections
  2. Example of a Purple-Green coalition: Verhofstadt I Government
  3. Example of a Swedish coalition: Michel I Government

References
  1. "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste, N-VA zakt net onder de 20%". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 11 December 2020.
  2. "De Grote Peiling. Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste partij, sp.a blijft 'vooruit' gaan". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 20 October 2020.
  3. "GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft afgetekend de grootste, sp.a klimt naar derde plaats". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 19 June 2020.
  4. "Grote Peiling: Vlaams Belang wordt de grootste, ook PVDA scoort, N-VA zakt richting 20%". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 14 March 2020.
  5. "De Grote Peiling. Vlaams Belang stijgt tot ongekende hoogtes, Open Vld afgestraft". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 13 December 2019.
  6. "De Grote Peiling. Vlaams Belang wipt over N-VA naar eerste plaats, dramatische score voor CD&V en sp.a". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 13 September 2019.
  7. "Grand Baromètre: le gouvernement De Croo fait chuter la N-VA sous les 20%". Le Soir (French). 11 December 2020.
  8. "Federale verkiezingen 2019: alle uitslagen". 26 May 2019. Retrieved 10 December 2019.
  9. "#GrandBaromètre IProjection en sièges à la Chambre". December 12, 2020.
  10. "De Grote Peiling. Regering-De Croo verliest 5 zetels, maar behoudt ruime meerderheid". October 12, 2020.
  11. "Grand Baromètre: le gouvernement De Croo serait moins représentatif si les élections avaient lieu demain". October 12, 2020.
  12. "#GrandBaromètre Ipsos RTL-Soir-HLN: The Projection and Sessions à la Chambre". March 14, 2020.
  13. "Les francophones bien à gauche, La Flandre à droite". Le Soir (French). March 14, 2020.
  14. "Le Vlaams Belang s'envole, la Flandre à droite toute". Le Soir (French). 15 December 2019.
  15. "Grand Baromètre: le Vlaams Belang et la N-VA obtiennent la majorité flamande à la Chambre (infographie)". Le Soir (French). 14 September 2019.
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