PredPol

PredPol, Inc is a predictive policing company that attempts to predict property crimes using predictive analytics. PredPol is also the name of the software the company produces. PredPol began as a project of the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) and UCLA professor Jeff Brantingham. PredPol has produced a patented algorithm, which is based on a model used to predict earthquake aftershocks.

PredPol
TypePrivate
HeadquartersSanta Cruz
ProductsPredictive analytics
Websitewww.predpol.com

As of 2020, PredPol's algorithm is the most commonly used predictive policing algorithm in the U.S.[1][2] Police departments that use PredPol are given printouts of jurisdiction maps that denote areas where crime has been predicted to occur throughout the day.[3] The Los Angeles Times reported that officers are expected to patrol these areas during their shifts, as the system tracks their movements via the GPS in their patrol cars.[4] Scholar Ruha Benjamin called PredPol a "crime production algorithm," as police officers then more heavily patrol these predicted crime zones, expecting to see crime, which leads to a self-fulfilling prophecy.[1]

PredPol was created in 2010 and was a leading vendor of predictive policing technology by 2012.[5] Smithsonian magazine remarked in 2018 that no independent published research had ever confirmed PredPol's claims of its software's accuracy.[6] In March 2019, the LAPD's internal audit concluded that there were insufficient data to determine if PredPol software helped reduce crime.[4]

In October 2018 Cory Doctorow described the secrecy around identifying which police departments use PredPol.[7] PredPol does not share this information.[7] The information is not accessible to the public.[7] In February 2019 Vice followed up to report that many police departments secretly use PredPol.[8] According to PredPol in 2019, 60 police departments in the U.S. used PredPol, most of which were mid-size agencies of 100 to 200 officers. In 2019, several cities reported cancelling PredPol contracts due to cost. The city of Mountain View, California spent more than $60,000 on the program between 2013 and 2018, and Hagerstown, Maryland spent $15,000 a year on the service until 2018.[4]

In 2016 Mic reported that PredPol is racist for inappropriately accusing black people of crimes.[9]

In 2017 the Santa Cruz Police Department banned the use of PredPol unless police got explicit approval from the Santa Cruz City Council via a resolution requirement that stated predictive policing should not perpetuate racial biases.[10] PredPol CEO Brian MacDonald said it supported the city resolution's requirement that predictive policing should not perpetuate racial bias, because PredPol is confident its software is not racially biased and that it meets the conditions in the city's ordinance.[11]

Institutions like the Brennan Center have urged for transparency from these police departments, because in order for policymakers and auditors to evaluate these algorithms, audit logs of who creates and accesses the predictions need to be kept and disclosed.[12]

In 2018 the BBC compared PredPol to the film The Minority Report.[13]

In April 2020, LAPD, one of the oldest customer of PredPol, ended its program [14] without being able to measure the effectiveness of this product.[15]

References

  1. Benjamin, Ruha (2019). Race After Technology: Abolitionist Tools for the New Jim Code. Medford, MA: Polity. p. 83.
  2. Heaven, Will Douglas (July 17, 2020). "Predictive policing algorithms are racist. They need to be dismantled". MIT Technology Review.
  3. Wang, Jackie (2018). Carceral Capitalism. South Pasadena, CA: Semiotext(e). p. 241.
  4. Puente, Mark (July 3, 2019). "LAPD pioneered predicting crime with data. Many police don't think it works". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved November 22, 2020.
  5. Winston, Ali (April 26, 2018). "A pioneer in predictive policing is starting a troubling new project". The Verge.
  6. Rieland, Randy (March 5, 2018). "Artificial Intelligence Is Now Used to Predict Crime. But Is It Biased?". Smithsonian.
  7. Doctorow, Cory (October 30, 2018). "Is this the full list of US cities that have bought or considered Predpol's predictive policing services?". Boing Boing.
  8. Koebler, Jason; Haskins, Caroline (February 6, 2019). "Dozens of Cities Have Secretly Experimented With Predictive Policing Software". Vice.
  9. Smith IV, Jack (October 6, 2016). "(Exclusive) Crime-prediction tool PredPol amplifies racially biased policing, study shows". Mic.
  10. Miller, Susan (July 1, 2020). "Santa Cruz bans predictive policing -". GCN. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
  11. "Santa Cruz becomes first U.S. city to approve ban on predictive policing". Santa Cruz Sentinel. June 24, 2020. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
  12. "Predictive Policing Explained | Brennan Center for Justice". www.brennancenter.org. April 1, 2020. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
  13. Smith, Mark (October 30, 2018). "Can we predict when and where a crime will take place?". BBC.
  14. "LAPD will end controversial program that aimed to predict where crimes would occur". Los Angeles Times. April 21, 2020.
  15. "LAPD data programs need better oversight to protect public, inspector general concludes". Los Angeles Times. March 12, 2019.
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