Rationale for the Persian Gulf war

The casus belli of the invasion was likely the dire economic situation Iraq was positioned with in 1990. In January 1979, the Iranian Shah monarchy was overthrown and replaced by the supreme leader, Ruhollah Khomeini. To prevent the spread of Iranian Islamic extremism and other hegemonic claims of the Shatt Al Arab waterway, Iraq invaded Iran on the 22 September 1980. The Iran-Iraq was a devastating and killed more than one million individuals. The war resulted in the Iraqi army becoming the fourth biggest[1] in the world but also devastated its economy. Iraq owed $35 billion in short-time high interest loans and the cost of infrastructure damage amounted to over $230 billion.[2][3] In February 1989, Iraq established the Arab Cooperation Council which attempted to garner economic support. In 1989, Iraq provided financial aid to Jordan by providing free shipping. In 1989, Saddam accused of Kuwait of oil slant drilling under Rumaila oil field on the Iraqi border. In February 1990, Saddam Hussein believed that Iraq should be compensated for protecting the Middle East from the spread of radicalism. He suggested that Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) should write off Iraq's wartime loans. Kuwait and UAE did write off some of their loans. Saddam also hinted at his idea to invade Kuwait by saying, "Let the Gulf regimes know...that if they will not give this money to me, I will know how to get it." On the 18th July 1990, Saddam accused Kuwait and the UAE of exceeding Oil and Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quotas and requested that they lower their production. Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz said, "every $1 drop in the price of a barrel of oil caused a $1 billion drop in Iraq's annual revenues." It is estimated that Iraq lost $14 billion as a result of Kuwaiti overproduction.[4] These factors resulted in Iraq's terrible economy. The invasion meant that Iraq owned 20% of OPEC.

The Kuwatiti entity dates back to 1716 but maps as early as 1652 have outlined Kuwait's existence.[5] Kuwaiti sovereignty and independence predates Iraq by more than 200 years. On the 23 July 1923, the treaty of Lausanne established the new borders after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. This resulted in British exerting control of the Mandate of Mesopotamia and Palestine. The borders were arbitrary and served the interests of the British Empire and France. On the 3 October 1932, Iraq was given Independence and on the 14 July 1958, the Iraqi monarchy was replaced with a republic. In 1963, Iraq recognized Kuwait's borders and independence. Later, Saddam Hussein claimed that this was invalid as it was not ratified.[6] He also suggested that Kuwait had been carved out of the Iraq by the United Nations.

The only geographical barrier between Iraq and Kuwait is the Arabian desert. No fence existed until 1992 to prevent a possible re-invasion.

Kuwait is a highly strategic location. Kuwait lies on the delta of the Persian Gulf and has a coastal length of approximately 290 km. In contrast, Iraq is largely landlocked with a coastal length of only 60 km. Furthermore, Iraq has one major port, Umm Qasr through the Kuwaiti controlled Khor Abdullah waterway. As a result, Iraq's economical growth has been slowed due a lack of trading opportunities. Furthermore, the Khor Abudallah waterway is prone to crowding and was blocked by Iran during the Iran-Iraq war. Iraq also has a small navy and lacks a strong grip on the Persian Gulf.[7] Iraq failed to gain a lease on the strategically vital islands of Bubiyan, Warbah, and Failak. Kuwait also allowed Iraq's modified Al Hussein SCUD missiles to reach Qatar and Bahrain.

Kuwait is one of the richest countries in the world. As of 2017, Kuwait has the 15th largest GDP per capital of US$66,200.[8] In 1990, Kuwait had the most modern water treatment facilities in the Middle East. The invasion gave Iraq access to these riches.

The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait may be served to be an attack on the West. This is because Saddam believed that the USA was trying to an economic war upon Iraq. In the Iran-Iraq war, the USA had supported Iraq. This was undermined by the Iran–Contra affair, where the USA sold weapons to Iran. Saddam said, "[Kuwait and the UAE] are inspired by America to undermine Arab interests and security.[9]" Iraq hated Israel and on the 3 April 1990, he threatened to “make the fire (chemical weapons) eat up half of Israel.[10]” Saddam believed that the West used Israel as a spearhead against the Middle East and to spread Western propaganda. He also believed that Kuwait and the UAE were Western pawns. In this sense, some have argued that Iraq invaded Kuwait to fight back.

Some minor factors include Kuwait's negligence and limited defense especially since they were surrounded by several larger players. Furthermore, most Kuwaiti soldiers were on holidays and those who remained lacked adequate training, equipment, and morale. He also believed that the Soviet Union and France which were main traders and allies would back Iraq and refuse to condemn them.[11] This was not the case as the Soviet Union was more preoccupied with its inevitable dissolution, Mikhail Gorbachev wanted to maintain good relations with the United States, and they had little support to provide anyway. France quickly opposed the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Finally, Saddam also had a long-standing dream to establish a greater Arab Empire and unite fellow Arabs. The invasion of Kuwait may have been a stepping stone to achieve this ideal.

Between 1989 and 1990, the Soviet Union suffered from numerous revolutions in Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Romania, and East Germany.[18] This meant that the Soviet Union began to decay and by the 25 December 1991, the Soviet Union ceased to exist. During this time, international dynamics gradually switched from bipolarity to unipolarity with the US at the forefront of global affairs. It was a double-edged sword. The USA had a greater range to their influence but meant that "relatively small, peripheral and backward states will be able to emerge rapidly as threats not only to regional, but to world, security.[19]" These states would not be influenced by multiple superpowers and thus, would not be used as a proxy war.

The international context was crucial for Saddam's decision to invade in Kuwait and international condemnation. The USA's decision to intervene was a signaled to other nations that aggression would not go unchallenged. Secretary of State, Lawrence Eagleburger said, “If he succeeds, others may try the same thing.[20]” Former British Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, suggested that the intervention comforted other small states and safeguarded democracy.[21]

After World War Two, the USA followed a policy of non-involvement in the Middle East. On the 23 January 1980, the Carter administration established the USA's official foreign policy regarding the Middle East as:

“Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.[22]"

Ronald Reagan's rollback doctrine also had implications in the Middle East because the Soviet Union was involved in Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan.

"Our mission is to nourish and defend freedom of democracy. On every continent...[23]"