2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election

Parliamentary elections will be held in Bulgaria on 4 April 2021.[1]

2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election
4 April 2021
All 240 seats in the National Assembly
121 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
GERB Boyko Borisov 95
BSP Korneliya Ninova 70
DPS Mustafa Karadaya 25
OP Valeri Simeonov
Krasimir Karakachanov 		21
Volya Veselin Mareshki 12
Independents – 17
Revival Kostadin Kostadinov 0
DB Hristo Ivanov
Atanas Atanasov 		New
ITN Slavi Trifonov New
IS.BG Maya Manolova New
RzB Tsvetan Tsvetanov New

Electoral system

The 240 members of the National Assembly are elected by closed list proportional representation from 31 multi-member constituencies ranging in size from 4 to 16 seats. The electoral threshold is 4%.[2]

Coalitions

During The Greens' 2020 national meeting, the party representatives voted in favor of a coalition at "the next parliamentary election with the other two members of Democratic Bulgaria". The party representatives voted against a "coalition with any of the political parties in the current National Assembly" - namely, GERB, BSP, DPS, Volya and OP.[3]

The deputy chairman of ITN, Toshko Yordanov, said in an interview for the Bulgarian National Radio, that the party "will not enter a coalition with GERB, DPS or BSP".[4]

The cochairman of Democratic Bulgaria, Hristo Ivanov, stated in an interview for bTV, that "there will be no coalition with GERB, whether with or without Borisov".[5]

The chairman of Bulgaria for Citizens Movement, Dimitar Delchev, announced that his party was joining Izpravi se.BG during a public presentation of the citizens' platform at Slaveykov Square, in August 2020.[6] The same was done by the chairman of the Bulgarian chapter of Volt Europa - Nastimir Ananiev,[7] as well as the chairman of the party Movement 21 - Tatyana Doncheva.[8] The citizens' organization The System Kills Us announced their support for Nikola Vaptsarov as their representative within Izpravi se.BG.[9]

Opinion polls

The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data and exclude pollees that chose 'I will not vote' or 'I am uncertain'.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 GERB BSP DPS OP[lower-alpha 1] DB Volya ITN IS.BG Others / None Lead
Market Links (voters) 23–31 Jan 2021 500 – 28.6% 20.9% 11.9% 3.4% 10.7% – 15.5% 5.3% 3.8% 7.7%
Market Links (all) 23–31 Jan 2021 1,000 – 25.5% 22.5% 11.2% 4.3% 8% – 18.1% 6.6% 3.8% 3%
Trend (voters) 12–19 Jan 2021 1,008 ± 3.1% 27.6% 24.9% 10.3% 4% 6% 1.3% 11.8% 4.1% 10% 2.7%
Gallup (voters) 7–15 Jan 2021 1,010 ± 3.1% 25.6%[lower-alpha 2] 21.4% 12.2% 5.1% 6.9% 2.3% 13.8% 5% 7.6% 4.2%
Alpha Research (voters) 15–21 Dec 2020 504 – 29% 26.2% 8.6% 3.2% 7.3% – 12.2% 5.9% 7.6% 2.8%
Mediana 12–17 Dec 2020 954 – 24.2% 25.7% 10.8% 4.7% 3.4% 1.6% 17% 4.8% 7.8% 1.5%
Exacta 5–12 Dec 2020 1,025 – 28.8% 25.6% 8.4% 5.4% 6% – 14% 3.7% 8.1% 3.2%
Barometer 24–29 Nov 2020 847 – 33.5% 20.8% 13.2% 12.7% 5.2% 1.2% 6.2% 2.5% 4.8% 12.7%
Barometer 6–11 Nov 2020 882 – 33.6% 21.6% 12.3% 12% 5.1% 1.1% 6.1% 2.6% 5.7% 12%
Sova Harris 27 Oct–3 Nov 2020 1,000 ± 3.1% 26.6%[lower-alpha 2] 25.1% 8.7% 5.5% 8.4% 3.2% 11.4% 5.7% 5.4% 1.5%
Rego (voters) 21–27 Oct 2020 2,000 – 27.1% 26.3% 8.3% 2.8% 7.6% 1.1% 18.6% 3.9% 4.3% 0.8%
Specter (voters) 12–16 Oct 2020 1,016 – 22.9% 21.8% 10.4% 3.4% 12.2% 0.8% 16.1% 3.5% 8.9% 1.1%
Barometer 10–16 Oct 2020 866 – 32.7% 23.6% 12.4% 11.3% 4.7% 1.1% 6.1% 2.7% 5.3% 9.1%
Trend (voters) 3–10 Oct 2020 1,008 ± 3.1% 24.1% 23.6% 10.2% 3.8% 8.8% 1.6% 15.9% 3.9% 8.1% 0.5%
Gallup 1–9 Oct 2020 803 ± 3.5% 19.1% 19.8% 10.1% 3.4% 7.3% 2.6% 12.6% 3.7% 21.4% 0.7%
Alpha Research (voters) 21–30 Sep 2020 1,031 – 22.8% 21.8% 11% 4.2% 10.5% 0.3% 16.6% 5.1% 7.7% 1%
Market Links (voters)[lower-alpha 3] 18–26 Sep 2020 544 – 27.4% 27.2% 9.9% 2.7% 11.8% – 13.5% 3.1% 4.4% 0.2%
Market Links (all) 18–26 Sep 2020 1,058 – 24.6% 25.5% 11.7% 2.8% 10% – 17% 4.2% 4.2% 0.9%
Gallup 3–11 Sep 2020 807 ± 3.5% 18.6% 19% 10.7% 3.8% 7.3% 2.5% 11.7% 3.1% 22.6% 0.4%
Trend (voters) 29 Aug–5 Sep 2020 1,008 ± 3.1% 23.8% 23.4% 10.4% 3.9% 9.9% 1.2% 15.9% 4% 7.5% 0.4%
Sova Harris 19–25 Aug 2020 1,000 ± 3.1% 27.7%[lower-alpha 2] 24.5% 9.2% 4.4% 7% 3% 15.7% 4.5% 4% 3.2%
Barometer 3–11 Aug 2020 842 – 38.9% 18.9% 12.2% 11.7% 4.8% 1.7% 5.3% 1.9% 4.5% 20%
Trend (voters) 3–10 Aug 2020 1,010 ± 3.1% 24.2% 22.9% 9.8% 4.1% 10.1% 1.2% 14.9% 4.4% 8.4% 1.3%
Gallup 30 Jul–7 Aug 2020 811 ± 3.5% 20% 19.1% 9.4% 3.2% 7.9% 2.2% 10.9% 3.3% 24.1% 0.9%
CAM 1–5 Aug 2020 1,021 ± 3.1% 30.1%[lower-alpha 2] 19.7% 10.8% 4.3% 10.1% 2.1% 13.9% 5% 3.9% 10.4%
Market Links (voters) 28 Jul–3 Aug 2020 573 – 26.3% 24.7% 10.5% 5% 12.8% – 13.8% 2.5% 4.5% 1.6%
Market Links (all) 28 Jul–3 Aug 2020 1,093 – 23.3% 20.7% 9.6% 4.6% 10.1% – 23% 4% 4.7% 0.3%
Gallup Jul 2020 – ± 3.5% 27.4% 25.7% 8.5% 4.4% 3.2% 2.4% 8.6% 1.8% 17.9% 1.7%
Alpha Research 23–30 Jul 2020 1,017 – 26.7% 19.2% 8.3% 4.1% 12.3% 0.9% 18.8% 5.9% 3.9% 7.5%
Sova Harris 26 Jun–1 Jul 2020 1,000 – 37.4% 21.4% 7.7% 7.5% 4.2% 4.2% 9.1% 2.6% 5.8% 16%
Gallup Jun 2020 – ± 3.5% 29% 23.1% 7.9% 3.8% 3.2% 2.4% 7% 2.4% 21.3% 5.9%
Barometer 20–25 Jun 2020 828 – 37.5% 20.4% 11.2% 10.1% 3.4% 1.5% 3.8% 1.7% 10.5% 17.1%
Market Links (voters) 27 May–3 Jun 2020 483 – 34.1% 25.6% 9.8% 3.7%[lower-alpha 4] 8.5% – 9.8% – 8.5% 8.5%
Alpha Research 28 Apr–5 May 2020 1,000 – 33.4% 19.6% 10.3% 6.3% 5.9% 1.6% 14.6% – 8.2% 13.8%
Mediana 21–28 Feb 2020 1,008 – 29.4% 25.7% 13.3% 5.8% 2.7% 1.9% 12.9% – 8.3% 3.7%
Barometer 27 Feb 2020 – – 35.2% 24% 10.5% 9%[lower-alpha 4] 3.1% 1.4% 3.7% 1.6% 11.5% 11.2%
Trend 3–10 Feb 2020 1,007 ± 3.1% 30.6% 27.3% 10.1% 3.9%[lower-alpha 4] 6% 2% 10.7% – 9.4% 3.3%
Barometer (voters) 9–13 Jan 2020 873 – 35.5% 28.2% 11% 11% 3.2% – 3.6% – 7.5% 7.3%
Alpha Research 5–12 Dec 2019 1,017 – 29.8% 25% 10.7% 7.3%[lower-alpha 4] 7% 2.1% 11.8% – 6.2% 4.8%
Market Links (voters) 21–28 Nov 2019 448 – 29.4% 29.4% 8.2% 5.9% 10.6% 2.4% 10.6% – 4.7% 0%
Market Links (all) 21–28 Nov 2019 980 – 28.6% 25.4% 12.7% 6.3% 7.9% 1.6% 12.7% – 3.2% 3.2%
Trend 7–15 Nov 2019 1,008 ± 3.1% 35.6% 27.5% 10.3% 5.1% 4.6% 1.8% 7.6% – 7.3% 8.1%
Alpha Research 10–16 Sep 2019 1,023 – 29.6% 25.8% 11.8% 6.6% 5.6% 2.8% 11.4% – 6.3% 3.8%
Market Links (voters) 11–19 Jun 2019 429 – 34.9% 33% 9.1% 6.8% 6% 3.8% – – 6.4% 1.9%
Trend 5–12 Jun 2019 1,008 ± 3.1% 36.7% 29.1% 10.9% 7.6% 5.1% 1.8% – – 8.8% 7.6%
2019 European election 26 May 2019 – – 30.13% 23.53% 16.05% 9.29%[lower-alpha 5] 5.88% 3.51% – – 11.61% 6.6%
2017 election 26 Mar 2017 – – 32.65% 27.19% 8.99% 9.07% 5.36%[lower-alpha 6] 4.15% – – 12.59% 5.46%
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 GERB BSP DPS OP DB Volya ITN IS.BG Others / None Lead

Notes:

  1. Percentages might not include Ataka's results, as they left the coalition around mid-2019.
  2. In an electoral alliance with SDS.
  3. The original source data had percentages that totaled 100.2 due to rounding. Due to a lack of better data, the same is true for the recalculated percentages.
  4. Results of VMRO only, no information on NFSB's results, which are probably counted as 'Others'.
  5. Combined results, but the three parties were competing on their own own. Ataka won 1.04% of the vote, NFSB won 1.11% and VMRO won 7.14%.
  6. Combined results of separate coalitions led by Yes, Bulgaria! and DSB. The former achieved a result of 2.88%, while the later won 2.48% of the vote.


Graphical representation of recalculated data:

Note: The above data does not include Barometer polls, due to claims by other pollsters and media that the agency only has 1 employee.[10]

References
  1. Президентът насрочи парламентарните избори на 4 април Dnevnik, 14 January 2021
  2. Bulgaria IFES
  3. Владислав Панев и Борислав Сандов бяха преизбрани за съпредседатели на „Зелено движение“ The Greens, 28 September 2020
  4. За партията на Слави Трифонов са забранени съюзи с ГЕРБ, БСП и ДПС OFF News, 7 October 2020
  5. Христо Иванов: Коалиция с ГЕРБ няма да има със или без Борисов OFF News, 11 October 2020
  6. youtube.com
  7. youtube.com
  8. youtube.com
  9. youtube.com
  10. When the numbers 'smell fishy'. How a party-colored agency sends something and BNT shows it. // Svobodnaevropa.bg. Visited on 5 February 2021.
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