David Rothman (statistician)

David Rothman (August 9, 1935 – c. June 12, 2004) was an American statistician, public policy advisor, and Bowl Championship Series computer rankings author.

David Rothman
Born(1935-08-09)August 9, 1935
Bronx, New York, United States
Diedc. June 12, 2004(2004-06-12) (aged 68)
Hawthorne, California, United States
OccupationStatistician, Public Policy
Spouse(s)Yolanda Rothman (1938–2011) (m.1959–1966) (divorced) 2 children

Early life and childhood

David Rothman was one of three children born and raised in Bronx, New York to Lena (1912–2004) and Morris Rothman (1908–1993). Morris Rothman was a furrier. In his youth David scored well in a national math contest. Piano composition was his hobby. David was pulled out of the Bronx High School of Science in his junior year on a full Ford Foundation Scholarship to the University of Wisconsin. David Rothman's IQ was off the charts and could not be measured, claimed family members who knew of the situation. He was a fantastic classical piano musician but did not wish to perform publicly, according to his mother Lena Rothman, as told to her niece Doris.

Education

Rothman graduated from Bronx Science (later called Bronx High School of Science) in 1951. He continued on to University of Wisconsin–Madison, completing a B. S. degree in mathematics in 1955 followed by a master's degree. He then went on to Harvard Graduate School of Public Administration (later renamed John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University), completing a M. S. degree in public administration in 1959.

Career

Rothman spent many years working as a private-sector aerospace statistician for companies like Lockheed Corporation, Agbabian Associates, and Rocketdyne. Through Rocketdyne, he was part of the enormous scientific technical talent pool utilized by NASA to achieve the Apollo program Moon landing. Through Agbabian Associates, he was part of the scientific technical talent pool utilized by NASA to analyze the mechanical structure used in the space shuttle reloading facility called the Vehicle Assembly Building.

As part of Rothman's interests in United States public policy (such as voting in relation to Arrow's impossibility theorem), he advocated for the creation of a new United States Constitution. Under this new Constitution there would be the addition of a seven-member fourth branch of government. This new branch's function would have been to police and, if warranted, remove members from the other branches for cause. He authored a book about his ideas.

Although Rothman only appeared on television once and presented once as a keynote speaker of a statistical conference in New York City, he also was the founder of a public policy think tank, FACT (Foundation for the Analysis of Competitions and Tournaments),[1] through which he will be best remembered as one of the original Bowl Championship Series computer rankings authors (1999–2002).[2][3]

David Rothman's ranking system was a computerized mathematical ranking system fully developed by himself. It was unbiased and gained notice and popularity from Bowl Championship Series (BCS) administrators, his peers and the public. His system has the advantage that was readily available to anyone who asked to use it, and it was nonproprietary.

Rothman would have liked his system to have been widely used in tournaments in college sports such as basketball and football, where standings of teams were available and coaches and schools could reproduce rankings quickly. This system only used the margin of the score and the name of the team to arrive at a ranking. He believed that the BCS organization could rely on his system because it was adequate and sufficient, and convinced them to use his system as one of the computer ranking systems used in determining their championship game participants. (Rothman had been selecting a national champion using his system since 1968.)

In 2002 when the revised BCS rules required all participating computer rankings to remove any weighting toward margin of victory, Rothman opted to drop out of the BCS, rather than make the necessary changes in his system. Rothman's system by design was indirectly incorporating margin of victory.

Rothman's ranking system was fairly accurate on a weekly basis. It is a common practice for the parties of interest to look at ranking data and look for values held by each participating team and measured either favorably or against that team. Rothman believed that it was evident that the success and validity of his system, which performed on a predictive basis, arose because he used the margin of victory as a factor.

FACT National Champions

The Foundation for the Analysis of Competitions and Tournaments selected the following NCAA Division I college football national champions.

SeasonChampion(s)RecordCoach
1968Ohio State10–0Woody Hayes
1969Penn State11–0Joe Paterno
Texas11–0Darrell Royal
1970Nebraska11–0–1Bob Devaney
Notre Dame10–1Ara Parseghian
Texas10–1Darrell Royal
1971Nebraska13–0Bob Devaney
1972USC12–0John McKay
1973Ohio State10–0–1Woody Hayes
1974Oklahoma11–0Barry Switzer
1975Ohio State11–1Woody Hayes
Oklahoma11–1Barry Switzer
1976Pittsburgh12–0Johnny Majors
1977Arkansas11–1Lou Holtz
Notre Dame11–1Dan Devine
Texas11–1Fred Akers
1978Alabama11–1Bear Bryant
Oklahoma11–1Barry Switzer
USC12–1John Robinson
1979Alabama12–0Bear Bryant
1980Florida State10–2Bobby Bowden
Georgia12–0Vince Dooley
Nebraska10–2Tom Osborne
Pittsburgh11–1Jackie Sherrill
1981Clemson12–0Danny Ford
1982Penn State11–1Joe Paterno
1983Auburn11–1Pat Dye
Nebraska12–1Tom Osborne
1984Florida9–1–1Galen Hall
1985Oklahoma11–1Barry Switzer
1986Miami11–1Jimmy Johnson
Penn State12–0Joe Paterno
1987Miami12–0Jimmy Johnson
1988Notre Dame12–0Lou Holtz
1989Miami11–1Dennis Erickson
Notre Dame12–1Lou Holtz
1990Colorado11–1–1Bill McCartney
Georgia Tech11–0–1Bobby Ross
Miami10–2Dennis Erickson
Washington10–2Don James
1991Washington12–0Don James
1992Alabama13–0Gene Stallings
1993Florida State12–1Bobby Bowden
1994Nebraska13–0Tom Osborne
Penn State12–0Joe Paterno
1995Nebraska12–0Tom Osborne
1996Florida12–1Steve Spurrier
1997Nebraska13–0Tom Osborne
1998Tennessee13–0Phillip Fulmer
1999Florida State12–0Bobby Bowden
2000Oklahoma13–0Bob Stoops
2001Miami12–0Larry Coker
2002Ohio State14–0Jim Tressel
2003LSU13–1Nick Saban
2004USC[4]11–0[5]Pete Carroll
2005Texas13–0Mack Brown
2006Florida13–1Urban Meyer
Ohio State12–1Jim Tressel

Hobbies

David Rothman's major hobby was genealogy, and his work in this area was credited in a book by Simon Louvish, Monkey Business (1999), about the Marx Brothers, by whom he was fascinated and wanted to make a film from Minnie's arrival to New York to Groucho's death. Rothman supplied Louvish material on Laurel and Hardy for another book. Rothman had also done some work on the family of Senator Joseph I. Lieberman . Many of David's boxes of paperwork were mailed by his sister Susan Rothman to their cousin Doris Rennert Hochman in West Palm Beach. Unfortunately not realizing the possible value of said materials, they were disposed of.

Rothman was a member of the American Statistical Association and the Prometheus Society. He was discussed in a February 1968 issue of TIME magazine as the first person who used computers to predict the outcome of football games.

Death

Rothman was found dead in his Hawthorne, California residence on June 16, 2004. The coroner later ruled that the cause of death was atherosclerotic heart disease.

References

  1. "FACT College Football Standings"
  2. "What is in a Computer Ranking?"
  3. "COLLEGE FOOTBALL; Margin of Victory Falls in Bowl Rating"
  4. The FWAA stripped USC of its 2004 Grantland Rice Trophy and vacated the selection of its national champion for 2004. The BCS also vacated USC's participation in the 2005 Orange Bowl and vacated USC's 2004 BCS National Championship and the AFCA Coaches' Poll Trophy was returned.ref1, ref2
  5. Record reflects vacated wins against UCLA and against Oklahoma in the BCS Championship game on January 4, 2005 as mandated by the NCAA Archived December 5, 2010, at the Wayback Machine.
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