Opinion polling for the next Australian federal election

In the leadup to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have been conducting regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about the electorate's views on major party leaders.

Graphical summary
Two-party-preferred vote.
Primary vote.
Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the last election. Local regression trends for each party are shown as solid lines.

Voting intention
Date Brand Firm Interview mode Sample size Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP OTH UND L/NP ALP UND
27 January – 1 February 2021 Essential[1] Essential Online 1092 37% 35% 10% 3% 7% 8% 44% 47% 8%
27–30 January 2021 Newspoll[2] YouGov Online 1512 42% 36% 10% 3% 9% – 50% 50% –
18 January 2021 Essential[1] Essential Online – 40% 33% 10% 3% 7% 7% 48% 45% 7%
14 December 2020 Essential[1] Essential Online – 37% 35% 8% 4% 7% 9% 45% 46% 9%
30 November 2020 Essential[1] Essential Online – 41% 33% 8% 4% 6% 8% 43% 49% 8%
25–28 November 2020 Newspoll[3] YouGov Online 1511 43% 36% 11% 2% 8% – 51% 49% –
16 November 2020 Essential[1] Essential Online – 38% 35% 9% 4% 6% 7% 45% 47% 7%
14–15, 21–22 November 2020 Morgan Poll[4] Roy Morgan Online 2824 42% 34% 12% 4% 8% – 50.5% 49.5% –
4–7 November 2020 Newspoll[5] YouGov Online 1510 43% 35% 11% 3% 8% – 51% 49% –
2 November 2020 Essential[1] Essential Online – 39% 35% 9% 3% 5% 9% 44% 46% 9%
14–19 October 2020 Essential[6] Essential Online – 39% 35% 9% 3% 7% 8% 48% 45% 8%
12 October 2020 Essential[6] Essential Online – 40% 33% 9% 3% 5% 9% 47% 44% 9%
8–10 October 2020 Newspoll[7] YouGov Online 1527 44% 34% 11% 3% 8% – 52% 48% –
5 October 2020 Essential[6] Essential Online – 39% 34% 9% 5% 6% 7% 47% 46% 7%
21 September 2020 Essential[6] Essential Online – 41% 31% 10% 4% 5% 9% 49% 42% 8%
16–19 September 2020 Newspoll[8] YouGov Online 2068 43% 34% 12% 3% 8% – 51% 49% –
7 September 2020 Essential[6] Essential Online – 38% 32% 10% 3% 9% 8% 45% 47% 8%
26–29 August 2020 Newspoll[9] YouGov Online 1507 41% 36% 11% 3% 9% – 50% 50% –
24 August 2020 Essential[6] Essential Online – 39% 35% 9% 4% 6% 7% 47% 45% 7%
8–9, 15–16 August 2020 Morgan Poll[10] Roy Morgan Telephone/Online 2841 46% 32.5% 11% 3% 7.5% – 54% 46% –
10 August 2020 Essential[6] Essential Online – 38% 34% 9% 4% 5% 10% 46% 44% 10%
5–8 August 2020 Newspoll[11] YouGov Online 1509 43% 33% 11% 4% 9% – 52% 48% –
23–26 July 2020 Essential[12] Essential Online 1058 38% 35% 9% 4% 6% 8% 45% 47% 8%
11–12, 18–19 July 2020 Morgan Poll[13] Roy Morgan Telephone/Online 2589 43.5% 33.5% 11% 2.5% 9.5% – 51.5% 48.5% –
15–18 July 2020 Newspoll[14] YouGov Online 1850 44% 34% 10% 4% 8% – 53% 47% –
13 July 2020 Essential[12] Essential Online 1054 37% 34% 10% 4% 6% 9% 45% 46% 9%
29 June 2020 Essential[12] Essential Online 1079 39% 33% 9% 4% 6% 8% 47% 45% 8%
24–27 June 2020 Newspoll[15] YouGov Online 1521 42% 35% 11% 3% 9% – 51% 49% –
22 June 2020 Essential[12] Essential Online 1079 39% 33% 10% 5% 6% 7% 48% 46% 7%
13–14, 20–21 June 2020 Morgan Poll[16] Roy Morgan Telephone/Online 2593 42.5% 34.5% 10.5% 4% 8.5% – 50.5% 49.5% –
15 June 2020 Essential[12] Essential Online 1087 38% 35% 9% 5% 7% 7% 47% 47% 7%
8 June 2020 Essential[12] Essential Online 1073 40% 33% 9% 4% 6% 8% 47% 45% 8%
3–6 June 2020 Newspoll[17] YouGov Online 1512 42% 34% 12% 4% 8% – 51% 49% –
13–16 May 2020 Newspoll[18] YouGov Online 1504 43% 35% 10% 3% 9% – 51% 49% –
18–19, 25–26 April 2020 Morgan Poll[19] Roy Morgan Telephone/Online 2806 43.5% 33% 11.5% 3% 9% – 51.5% 48.5% –
22–25 April 2020 Newspoll[20] YouGov Online 1519 41% 36% 12% 4% 7% – 50% 50% –
1–3 April 2020 Newspoll[21] YouGov Online 1508 42% 34% 13% 5% 6% – 51% 49% –
11–14 March 2020 Newspoll[22] YouGov Online 1501 40% 36% 12% 4% 8% – 49% 51% –
27 February 2020 COVID-19 pandemic declared a national emergency
19–22 February 2020 Newspoll[23] YouGov Online 1513 38% 34% 13% 4% 11% – 49% 51% –
20 January – 3 February 2020 ANU poll[24] ANU CATI & Online 3249 34.8% 33.4% 14.7% – 10.5% – – – –
4 February 2020 Adam Bandt replaces Richard Di Natale as Greens leader
29 January – 1 February 2020 Newspoll[25] YouGov Online 1510 38% 35% 13% 4% 10% – 48% 52% –
8–11 January 2020 Newspoll[26] YouGov Online 1505 40% 36% 12% 4% 8% – 49% 51% –
January 2020 Australian bushfire season peaks
4–8 December 2019 Newspoll[27] YouGov Online 1503 42% 33% 11% 5% 9% – 52% 48% –
21–23 November 2019 Newspoll[28] YouGov Online[29] 1519 41% 33% 12% 5% 9% – 51% 49% –
7–10 November 2019 Newspoll[30] YouGov IVR/Online 1682 40% 35% 12% 7% 6% – 50% 50% –
17–20 October 2019 Newspoll[31] YouGov IVR/Online 1634 42% 33% 13% 6% 6% – 51% 49% –
26–29 September 2019 Newspoll[32] YouGov IVR/Online 1658 42% 33% 13% 6% 6% – 51% 49% –
5–7 September 2019 Newspoll[33] YouGov IVR/Online 1661 43% 35% 12% 5% 5% – 51% 49% –
15–18 August 2019 Newspoll[34] YouGov IVR/Online 1623 42% 34% 11% 4% 9% – 51% 49% –
25–28 July 2019 Newspoll[35] YouGov IVR/Online 1601 44% 33% 11% 3% 9% – 53% 47% –
30 May 2019 Anthony Albanese replaces Bill Shorten as Labor leader
18 May 2019 election 41.44% 33.34% 10.4% 3.08% 11.74% N/A 51.53% 48.47% N/A

Preferred Prime Minister
Date Brand Firm Interview mode Sample size Preferred Prime Minister Morrison Albanese
Morrison Albanese Don't Know Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know
27–30 January 2021 Newspoll[2] YouGov Online 1512 57% 29% 14% 63% 33% 4% 41% 43% 16%
December 2020 Essential[36] Essential Online 1071 50% 24% 26% 62% 28% 10% 43% 29% 28%
25–28 November 2020 Newspoll[3] YouGov Online 1511 60% 28% 12% 66% 30% 4% 44% 41% 15%
4–6 November 2020 Newspoll[5] YouGov Online 1510 58% 29% 13% 64% 31% 5% 43% 39% 18%
8–10 October 2020 Newspoll[7] YouGov Online 1527 57% 28% 15% 65% 31% 4% 39% 43% 18%
16–19 September 2020 Newspoll[8] YouGov Online 2068 59% 27% 14% 65% 31% 4% 39% 40% 21%
26–29 August 2020 Newspoll[9] YouGov Online 1507 58% 29% 13% 64% 32% 4% 43% 41% 16%
6–9 August 2020 Essential[37] Essential Online 1010 52% 22% 26% 66% 23% 11% 44% 30% 26%
5–8 August 2020 Newspoll[11] YouGov Online 1509 60% 25% 15% 68% 29% 3% 41% 38% 15%
15–18 July 2020 Newspoll[14] YouGov Online 1850 59% 26% 15% 68% 27% 5% 41% 40% 19%
9–12 July 2020 Essential[38] Essential Online 1054 50% 27% 23% 63% 27% 10% 44% 28% 28%
24–27 June 2020 Newspoll[15] YouGov Online 1521 58% 26% 16% 68% 27% 5% 42% 40% 18%
3–6 June 2020 Newspoll[17] YouGov Online 1512 56% 26% 18% 66% 29% 5% 41% 38% 21%
2 June 2020 Essential[39] Essential Online 1059 53% 23% 24% 65% 26% 9% 43% 30% 27%
13–16 May 2020 Newspoll[18] YouGov Online 1504 56% 29% 15% 66% 30% 4% 44% 37% 19%
5 May 2020 Essential[40] Essential Online 1093 50% 25% 25% 64% 27% 9% 42% 27% 31%
22–25 April 2020 Newspoll[41] YouGov Online 1508 56% 28% 16% 68% 28% 4% 45% 34% 21%
2–5 April 2020 Essential[42] Essential Online 1069 46% 27% 27% 59% 31% 10% 44% 29% 27%
1–3 April 2020 Newspoll[43] YouGov Online 1508 53% 29% 18% 61% 35% 4% 45% 36% 19%
11–14 March 2020 Newspoll[44] YouGov Online 1501 42% 38% 20% 41% 53% 6% 40% 40% 20%
11 March 2020 Essential[45] Essential Online 1096 40% 35% 25% 41% 49% 10% 41% 33% 26%
19–22 February 2020 Newspoll[46] YouGov Online 1513 40% 41% 19% 38% 58% 4% 39% 44% 17%
11 February 2020 Essential[47] Essential Online 1056 36% 36% 28% 39% 52% 9% 41% 31% 28%
29 January – 1 February 2020 Newspoll[48] YouGov Online 1510 38% 43% 19% 37% 59% 4% 43% 40% 17%
7–11 January 2020 Essential[49] Essential Online 1081 36% 39% 25% 40% 52% 8% 43% 30% 27%
8–11 January 2020 Newspoll[26] YouGov Online 1505 39% 43% 18% 37% 59% 4% 46% 37% 17%
5–8 December 2019 Essential[50] Essential Online 1035 n/a n/a n/a 45% 43% 12% 39% 28% 33%
8 December 2019 Newspoll[27] YouGov Online 48% 34% 18% 45% 48% 7% 40% 41% 19%
23 November 2019 Newspoll[28] YouGov Online 46% 35% 19% 43% 52% 5% 38% 45% 17%
12 November 2019 Essential[51] YouGov Online 44% 28% 29% 45% 41% 14% 37% 34% 29%
10 November 2019 Newspoll[30] YouGov IVR/Online 46% 32% 22% 46% 43% 11% 42% 37% 21%
20 October 2019 Newspoll[31] YouGov IVR/Online 47% 32% 21% 47% 45% 8% 37% 44% 19%
15 October 2019 Essential[52] Essential Online 43% 28% 29% 47% 38% 15% 40% 29% 31%
29 September 2019 Newspoll[32] YouGov IVR/Online 50% 31% 19% 47% 43% 10% 39% 40% 21%
17 September 2019 Essential[53] Essential Online 46% 25% 29% 49% 36% 15% 36% 31% 33%
5–7 September 2019 Newspoll[33] YouGov IVR/Online 48% 28% 24% 49% 39% 12% 35% 40% 25%
1 September 2019 YouGov[54] YouGov Online 46% 23% 31% n/a% n/a% n/a% n/a% n/a% n/a%
22 August 2019 Essential[55] Essential Online 44% 28% 28% 48% 37% 15% 38% 29% 33%
15–18 August 2019 Newspoll[56] YouGov IVR/Online 48% 30% 22% 48% 42% 10% 41% 34% 25%
25–28 July 2019 Newspoll[57] YouGov IVR/Online 48% 31% 21% 51% 36% 13% 39% 36% 25%
17–21 July 2019 Essential[58] Essential Online 44% 26% 30% 48% 34% 18% 39% 24% 37%
19–23 June 2019 Essential[59] Essential Online 43% 25% 32% 48% 36% 16% 35% 25% 40%

Sub-national polling

NSW
Date Firm Sample size Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
26 August–28 November 2020 Newspoll[60] 2304 44% 36% 11% 1% 8% 51% 49%
14–15, 21–22 November 2020 Roy Morgan[4] 2824 – – – – – 53.5% 46.5%
8–9, 15–16 August 2020 Roy Morgan[10] 2841 – – – – – 56.5% 43.5%
3 June–8 August 2020 Newspoll[61] 457-2034 42% 37% 11% 1% 9% 49% 51%
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020 Roy Morgan[13] 2589 – – – – – 52.5% 47.5%
11 March–16 May 2020 Newspoll[62] 472-1905 42% 36% 11% 2% 9% 50% 50%
7–8 December 2019 Newspoll[63] 930-1472 42% 35% 10% 2% 12% 51% 49%
18 May 2019 election 42.54% 34.56% 8.71% 1.31% 12.88% 51.78% 48.22%

VIC
Date Firm Sample size Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
26 August–28 November 2020 Newspoll[60] 2160 39% 39% 14% 0% 8% 45% 55%
14–15, 21–22 November 2020 Roy Morgan[4] 2824 – – – – – 46.5% 53.5%
8–9, 15–16 August 2020 Roy Morgan[10] 2841 – – – – – 48% 52%
3 June–8 August 2020 Newspoll[61] 457-2034 37% 40% 14% 1% 8% 44% 56%
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020 Roy Morgan[13] 2589 – – – – – 46.5% 53.5%
11 March–16 May 2020 Newspoll[62] 472-1905 39% 40% 13% 1% 7% 45% 55%
7–8 December 2019 Newspoll[63] 930-1472 40% 38% 12% 1% 11% 47% 53%
18 May 2019 election 38.58% 36.86% 11.89% 0.95% 11.72% 46.86% 53.14%

QLD
Date Firm Sample size Primary vote 2pp vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
26 August–28 November 2020 Newspoll[60] 1879 45% 29% 12% 9% 5% 57% 43%
14–15, 21–22 November 2020 Roy Morgan[4] 2824 – – – – – 54.5% 45.5%
8–9, 15–16 August 2020 Roy Morgan[10] 2841 – – – – – 60% 40%
3 June–8 August 2020 Newspoll[61] 457-2034 46% 27% 10% 11% 6% 59% 41%
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020 Roy Morgan[13] 2589 – – – – – 58% 42%
11 March–16 May 2020 Newspoll[62] 472-1905 42% 28% 13% 11% 6% 56% 44%
7–8 December 2019 Newspoll[63] 930-1472 40% 29% 12% 13% 6% 55% 45%
1 September 2019 YouGov Galaxy 40% 29% 12% 13% 6% 55% 45%
18 May 2019 election 43.70% 26.68% 10.32% 8.86% 10.44% 58.44% 41.56%

SA
Date Firm Sample size Primary vote 2pp vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
26 August–28 November 2020 Newspoll[60] 600 44% 36% 10% 1% 9% 51% 49%
14–15, 21–22 November 2020 Roy Morgan[4] 2824 – – – – – 48% 52%
8–9, 15–16 August 2020 Roy Morgan[10] 2841 – – – – – 57.5% 42.5%
3 June–8 August 2020 Newspoll[61] 457-2034 43% 36% 10% 0% 11% 50% 50%
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020 Roy Morgan[13] 2589 – – – – – 53% 47%
11 March–16 May 2020 Newspoll[62] 472-1905 40% 37% 12% 0% 11% 47% 53%
18 May 2019 election 40.57% 35.38% 9.61% 0.84% 13.60% 49.29% 50.71%

WA
Date Firm Sample size Primary vote 2pp vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
26 August–28 November 2020 Newspoll[60] 779 43% 32% 13% 7% 5% 53% 47%
14–15, 21–22 November 2020 Roy Morgan[4] 2824 – – – – – 51% 49%
8–9, 15–16 August 2020 Roy Morgan[10] 2841 – – – – – 53.5% 46.5%
3 June–8 August 2020 Newspoll[61] 457-2034 45% 31% 13% 8% 3% 54% 46%
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020 Roy Morgan[13] 2589 – – – – – 53.5% 46.5%
11 March–16 May 2020 Newspoll[62] 472-1905 44% 31% 12% 9% 4% 55% 45%
18 May 2019 election 43.79% 29.80% 11.62% 5.31% 9.48% 55.55% 44.45%

TAS
Date Firm Sample size Primary vote 2pp vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
14–15, 21–22 November 2020 2824 – – – – – 52% 48%
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020 Roy Morgan[13] 2589 – – – – – 42% 58%
18 May 2019 election 34.60% 33.61% 10.12% 2.79% 18.88% 44.04% 55.96%

Government approval rating

Individual polls
Date Firm Right
Direction		 Wrong
Direction		 Can't
Say		 GCR[64] Lead
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020 Roy Morgan 48% 34% 18% 114 +14%
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020 Roy Morgan[65] 49% 34.5% 16.5% 114.5 +14.5%
June 13/14 & 23/24 2020 Roy Morgan[66] 53.5% 29.5% 17% 124 +24%
May 16/17 & 23/24 2020 Roy Morgan 54.5% 29.5% 16% 125 +25%
18–26 April 2020 Roy Morgan[19] 51.5% 27.5% 21% 124 +24%
29 February–8 March 2020 Roy Morgan[19] 37% 47% 16% 90 –10%
22–30 June 2019 Roy Morgan[67] 43.5% 39% 17.5% 104.5 +4.5%

References
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  64. GCR is known as the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating which is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is "going in the right direction" and the percentage who say the country is "going in seriously the wrong direction".
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  67. "Government Confidence jumps after L-NP win Election". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 2020-05-02.
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