Opinion polling for the next Slovak parliamentary election
In the run up to the next Slovak parliamentary election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Slovakia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.
The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 29 February 2020, to the present day. The next paraliamentary election is scheduled to be held 24 February 2024, though it may be held earlier if a snap election is called.
Party vote
Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty. Agencies FOCUS and AKO can be considered as more trusted and reputable agencies because of their membership in the Slovak Association of Research Agencies and ESOMAR.
Graphical summary of the opinion polls conducted by all agencies
| Date | Polling firm |
Sample size |
OĽaNO [lower-alpha 1] |
Smer– SD |
Sme Rodina | Kotlebovci– ĽSNS[lower-alpha 2] |
PS-SPOLU[lower-alpha 3] | SaS | Za ľudí | KDH | MKÖ-MKS[lower-alpha 4] | SNS | Dobrá voľba | Vlasť | Most– Híd |
Hlas– SD |
Lead | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | SPOLU | SMK-MKP | MF[lower-alpha 5] | Ö-S[lower-alpha 6] | ||||||||||||||||
| 12-19 Jan 2021 | Focus[1] | 1005 | 10.1% | 9.1% | 5.1% | 9.7% | 5.2% | 1% | 13.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | - | - | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2% | 24.3% | 11% |
| 17-19 Dec 2020 | AKO[2] | 1000 | 14.2% | 9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 0.5% | 16.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 22.8% | 6.6% |
| 8-14 Dec 2020 | Focus[3] | 1000 | 11% | 9.8% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 6% | 0.4% | 15.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.3% | – | 0.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2% | 20.1% | 5.1% |
| 18–25 Nov 2020 | Focus[4] | 1,004 | 14% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 1% | 12.1% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 3.3% | – | 0.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 19.1% | 5.1% |
| 6–11 Nov 2020 | Median SK[5] | 1,018 | 16.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 1.5% | 12.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | – | – | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 20.3% | 3.7% |
| 21–26 Oct 2020 | Actly[6] | 1,000 | 14.7%[lower-alpha 7] | 10.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 1.1% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 1.6% | – | – | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 26.5% | 11.8% |
| 7–15 Oct 2020 | Focus[7] | 1,014 | 15.1% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 5.4% | 0.3% | 10.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | – | 0.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 18.7% | 3.6% |
| 1–9 Oct 2020 | AKO[8] | 1,000 | 15.3% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 1.8% | 13.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 18.8% | 3.5% |
| 14–18 Sep 2020 | Median SK[9] | 1,007 | 17.0% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 1.3% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 2.3% | – | – | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | – | 16.9% | 0.1% |
| 26 Aug–2 Sep 2020 | Focus[10] | 1,022 | 18.4% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 0.6% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | – | 0.7% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 16.2% | 2.2% |
| 7–17 Jul 2020 | AKO[11] | 1,000 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | – | – | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 16.7% | 6.8% |
| 17–24 Jun 2020 | Focus[12] | 1,009 | 21.2% | 19.0% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 0.8% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | – | 2.2% |
| 20.3% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 0.8% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 19.3%[lower-alpha 8] | 1.0% | |||
| 14–21 May 2020 | Focus[13][14] | 1,011 | 22.9% | 21.6% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 0.2% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | – | – | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | – | 1.3% |
| 21.8% | 9.6%[lower-alpha 9] | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | – | – | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 21.4%[lower-alpha 9] | 0.4% | ||||
| 15–19 Apr 2020 | Focus[15] | 1,016 | 24.4% | 21.8% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 2.8% | – | – | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | – | 2.6% | |
| 14–17 Apr 2020 | AKO[16] | 1,000 | 29.9% | 18.3% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 0.9% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | N/A | 11.6% | ||
| 18–21 Mar 2020 | Focus[15] | 1,023 | 23.3% | 21.6% | 11.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 1.3% | N/A | 1.7% | |||
| 29 February 2020 | 2020 elections | 25.0% | 18.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | N/A | 6.7% | ||||
| Lead | ||||||||||||||||||||
| OĽaNO [lower-alpha 1] |
Smer– SD |
Sme Rodina | Kotlebovci– ĽSNS[lower-alpha 2] |
PS | SPOLU | SaS | Za ľudí | KDH | SMK-MKP | MF[lower-alpha 5] | Ö-S[lower-alpha 6] | SNS | Dobrá voľba | Vlasť | Most–Híd | Hlas– SD | ||||
| PS-SPOLU[lower-alpha 3] | MKÖ-MKS[lower-alpha 4] | |||||||||||||||||||
Seat projections
| Date | Polling firm |
OĽaNO[lower-alpha 1] | Smer–SD | Sme Rodina | Kotlebovci– ĽSNS[lower-alpha 2] |
PS-SPOLU[lower-alpha 3] | SaS | Za ľudí | KDH | MKÖ-MKS[lower-alpha 4] | SNS | Dobrá voľba | Vlasť | Most–Híd | Hlas– SD |
Govt. | Opp. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | SPOLU | SMK-MKP | MF[lower-alpha 5] | Ö-S[lower-alpha 6] | ||||||||||||||||
| 17-19 Dec 2020 | AKO[2] | 26 | 17 | 11 | 11 | 12 | – | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 43 | 67 | 83 |
| 8-14 Dec 2020 | Focus[3] | 21 | 19 | 10 | 16 | 12 | – | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 41 | 62 | 88 |
| 18–25 Nov 2020 | Focus[4] | 26 | 18 | 11 | 18 | 11 | – | 22 | – | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 35 | 59 | 91 |
| 7–15 Oct 2020 | Focus[7] | 27 | 19 | 13 | 18 | 10 | – | 20 | – | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 34 | 60 | 90 |
| 1–9 Oct 2020 | AKO[8] | 29 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 12 | – | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 35 | 71 | 79 |
| 26 Aug–2 Sept 2020 | Focus[10] | 35 | 21 | 17 | 16 | 11 | – | 19 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 31 | 71 | 79 |
| 7–17 Jul 2020 | AKO[11] | 44 | 20 | 12 | 15 | 10 | – | 18 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 31 | 74 | 76 |
| 17–24 June 2020 | Focus[12] | 41 | 37 | 25 | 18 | 12 | – | 17 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | N/A | 83 | 67 |
| 37 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 11 | – | 16 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 36 | 71 | 79 | ||
| 14–21 May 2020 | Focus[13][14] | 43 | 41 | 21 | 18 | 12 | – | 15 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | N/A | 79 | 71 |
| 40 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 10 | – | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 39 | 69 | 81 | ||
| 15–19 Apr 2020 | Focus[15] | 45 | 40 | 21 | 17 | 14 | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | N/A | 79 | 71 | |
| 14–17 Apr 2020 | AKO[16] | 56 | 34 | 18 | 12 | 12 | – | 18 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | N/A | 92 | 58 |
| 18–21 Mar 2020 | Focus | 47 | 43 | 23 | 15 | – | 12 | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | N/A | 92 | 58 | |
| 29 February 2020 | 2020 elections | 53 | 38 | 17 | 17 | – | 13 | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | – | N/A | 95 | 55 | |||
| Date | Polling firm |
Govt. | Opp. | |||||||||||||||||
| OĽaNO [lower-alpha 1] | Smer–SD | Sme Rodina | Kotlebovci– ĽSNS[lower-alpha 2] |
PS | SPOLU | SaS | Za ľudí | KDH | SMK-MKP | MF[lower-alpha 5] | Ö-S[lower-alpha 6] | SNS | Dobrá voľba | Vlasť | Most–Híd | Hlas– SD | ||||
| PS-SPOLU[lower-alpha 3] | MKÖ-MKS[lower-alpha 4] | |||||||||||||||||||
Notes
- OĽaNO ran a common list in last election with NOVA, Kresťanská únia, and ZMENA ZDOLA under its name and it's polled as one party.
- K-ĽSNS ran a common list in last election with KDŽP-Aliancia za Slovensko, Národná Koalícia, Doma Dobre, and Priama Demokracia under its name.
- Progressive Slovakia and SPOLU ran a common list in last election.
- SMK ran a common list in last elections with Maďarské Forum, and Maďarská Spolupatričnosť under name MKO-MKS.
- Magyar fórum-Maďarské forúm
- Összefogás-Spolupatričnosť
- OĽaNO-NOVA - 14.7%, KÚ - 1.1%
- As Peter Pellegrini's New Party in Scenario that new party of Prime Minister Peter Pellegrini is founded.
- Scenario: Former Prime Minister Peter Pellegrini leaves Smer-SD and founds new party.
References
- https://dennikn.sk/2238820/focus-hlas-sa-splha-k-25-percentam-olano-ma-10-percent-spor-premiera-so-sulikom-uz-pripravil-o-preferencie-aj-sas/?ref=tit1
- https://ako.sk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ag.AKO-VOLEBNE-PREF-DECEMBER-2020.pdf
- https://www.focus-research.sk/files/n276_Volebne%20preferencie%20politickych%20stran_december%202020.pdf
- "Prieskum: Z konfliktu SaS a OĽaNO ťaží Sulík, rastie aj Pellegriniho Hlas". SME.sk (in Slovak). 29 November 2020. Retrieved 29 November 2020.
- https://domov.sme.sk/c/22535266/prieskum-volby-by-vyhral-hlas-lsns-aj-smeru-preferencie-klesaju.html?ref=njct
- https://www.ta3.com/clanok/1195764/do-parlamentu-by-sa-dostalo-sedem-stran-ukazal-prieskum.html
- https://www.focus-research.sk/files/n274_Volebne%20preferencie%20politickych%20stran_oktober%202020.pdf
- https://slovensko.hnonline.sk/2229557-prieskum-pellegriniho-hlas-prvykrat-predbehol-olano-vyrazne-rastie-sas
- https://www.tvnoviny.sk/domace/2007850_prieskum-pellegriniho-strana-hlas-uz-dobehla-olano
- https://www.focus-research.sk/files/n273_Volebn%C3%A9%20preferencie%20politick%C3%BDch%20str%C3%A1n%20august-september%202020.pdf
- https://ako.sk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ag.AKO_VOLEBNE_PREF_JUL_2020.pdf
- https://www.tvnoviny.sk/na-telo/2000971_s-pellegrinim-aj-bez-neho-exkluzivny-prieskum-ukazuje-ako-by-nova-strana-zamiesala-preferenciami
- http://www.focus-research.sk/files/n271_Volebne%20preferencie%20politickych%20stran_maj%202020.pdf
- https://dennikn.sk/1913435/prieskum-focusu-pellegriniho-strana-by-predbehla-smer-a-tesne-by-sa-dotiahla-na-olano/?ref=tit1
- http://www.focus-research.sk/files/n270_Volebne%20preferencie%20politickych%20stran_april%202020.pdf
- https://ako.sk/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/ag.AKO-VOLEBN%C3%89_PREF_APRIL-2020_.pdf
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