Post-election pendulum for the 2003 New South Wales state election

The Mackerras New South Wales election pendulum, 2005 shows the state of the major political parties ahead of the 2007 New South Wales state election. The table shows seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly arranged in the form of a Mackerras Pendulum. The figures have been calculated on the basis of a redistribution completed in 2005.

A uniform swing against the incumbent Labor Party government would deliver seats on the left of the table to the opposition Liberal and National parties. A swing in the government's favour would deliver seats on the right of the table to Labor.

MPs shown in italics did not contest the 2007 election.

Very safe seats
District Member Party Margin District Member Party Margin
Port Maccquarie Rob Oakeshott [1] Independent 31.9 points
Cabramatta Reba Meagher Labor 31.8 points
Marrickville Carmel Tebbutt [2] Labor 31.6 points
Liverpool Paul Lynch Labor 30.8 points
Northern Tablelands Richard Torbay [1] Independent 30.0 points
Lakemba Morris Iemma Labor 28.8 points
Canterbury Linda Burney Labor 27.6 points
Wollongong Noreen Hay Labor 27.4 points
Shellharbour [3] Marianne Saliba Labor 27.0 points
Mount Druitt Richard Amery Labor 26.8 points
Auburn Barbara Perry Labor 26.5 points
Bankstown Tony Stewart Labor 26.4 points
Fairfield Joe Tripodi Labor 26.0 points
Smithfield Carl Scully Labor 25.9 points
Blacktown Paul Gibson Labor 24.9 points
Keira David Campbell Labor 24.0 points
Heffron Kristina Keneally Labor 23.9 points
Maroubra Michael Daley Labor 23.5 points
Macquarie Fields Steven Chaytor Labor 22.6 points Albury Greg Aplin Liberal 22.5 points
Wallsend John Mills Labor 20.1 points Davidson Andrew Humpherson Liberal 20.9 points

Safe seats
District Member Party Margin District Member Party Margin
Campbelltown Graham West Labor 19.6 points
Granville Kim Yeadon Labor 19.4 points
Kogarah Cherie Burton Labor 19.3 points
East Hills Alan Ashton Labor 18.6 points
Cessnock Kerry Hickey Labor 18.5 points
Balmain [4] Sandra Nori[5] Labor 17.6 points
Swansea Vacant[6] Labor 17.1 points
Toongabbie Pam Allan[7] Labor 16.7 points
Mulgoa Diane Beamer Labor 16.6 points
Rockdale Frank Sartor Labor 16.0 points
Newcastle Bryce Gaudry Labor[8] 15.4 points Murrumbidgee Adrian Piccoli National 18.9 points
Strathfield Virginia Judge Labor 14.9 points Ku-ring-gai Barry O'Farrell Liberal 18.8 points
Blue Mountains Bob Debus Labor 14.8 points Sydney Clover Moore [9] Independent 15.0 points
Ryde John Watkins Labor 14.7 points Barwon Ian Slack-Smith National 14.7 points
Oatley [10] Kevin Greene Labor 14.2 points Hawkesbury Steven Pringle Liberal[11] 14.6 points
Parramatta Tanya Gadiel Labor 13.5 points Myall Lakes John Turner National 13.9 points
Bathurst Gerard Martin Labor 13.4 points Wakehurst Brad Hazzard Liberal 13.2 points
Charlestown Matthew Morris Labor 13.3 points Wagga Wagga Daryl Maguire Liberal 12.7 points
Coogee Paul Pearce Labor 13.2 points Burrinjuck Katrina Hodgkinson National 12.4 points
Riverstone John Aquilina Labor 13.1 points North Shore Jillian Skinner Liberal 12.3 points
Heathcote Paul McLeay Labor 12.3 points Coffs Harbour Andrew Fraser National 11.9 points
Wyong Paul Crittenden Labor 12.2 points Vaucluse Peter Debnam Liberal 10.9 points
Lake Macquarie Jeff Hunter Labor 11.6 points Castle Hill [12] Michael Richardson Liberal 10.8 points

Fairly safe seats
District Member Party Margin District Member Party Margin
Maitland John Price Labor 9.8 points
The Entrance Grant McBride Labor 9.6 points
Miranda Barry Collier Labor 8.9 points
Drummoyne Angela D'Amore Labor 8.8 points
Menai Alison Megarrity Labor 8.4 points Oxley Andrew Stoner National 9.7 points
Camden Geoff Corrigan Labor 8.3 points Ballina Don Page National 9.1 points
Londonderry Allan Shearan Labor 8.2 points Cronulla Malcolm Kerr Liberal 8.6 points
Gosford Marie Andrews [13] Labor 8.2 points Lismore Thomas George National 8.1 points
Kiama Matt Brown Labor 8.1 points Epping Andrew Tink Liberal 7.6 points
Port Stephens John Bartlett Labor 7.2 points Willoughby Gladys Berejiklian Liberal 7.4 points
Penrith Karyn Paluzzano Labor 6.6 points Upper Hunter George Souris National 7.2 points

Marginal seats
District Member Party Margin District Member Party Margin
Orange Russell Turner National 5.9 points
Clarence Steve Cansdell National 5.3 points
Bega Andrew Constance Liberal 4.7 points
Pittwater Alex McTaggart [14] Independent 5.4 points Goulburn Peta Seaton[15] Liberal 4.5 points
Wollondilly New seat Labor 4.6 points Hornsby Judy Hopwood Liberal 4.2 points
Monaro Steve Whan Labor 4.4 points Baulkham Hills Wayne Merton Liberal 4.0 points
Tweed Neville Newell Labor 4.0 points Lane Cove Anthony Roberts Liberal 2.8 points
Tamworth Peter Draper [1] Independent 1.9 points South Coast Shelley Hancock Liberal 1.6 points
Manly David Barr [14] Independent 1.2 points Murray-Darling Peter Black [16] Labor −1.4 points
Dubbo Dawn Fardell [1] Independent 0.3 points Terrigal [17] Chris Hartcher Liberal 0.6 points

Independents

A version of the table published in The Australian on 19 February 2007 [18] showed all seats as effectively Coalition or Labor depending on the favoured major party among the electorate's voters. On this interpretation, Clover Moore's seat of Sydney is shown on the government side, alone among the seven sitting independents.

Notes
  1. Two-candidate preferred result against Nationals
  2. Two-candidate preferred result against Liberals shown. Two-candidate preferred result against Greens, who polled second, was 10.0 points
  3. Seat formerly known as Illawarra
  4. Seat formerly known as Port Jackson
  5. Two-candidate preferred margin to Liberals shown. Two-candidate preferred margin to Greens, who polled second in this electorate, is 7.1 points
  6. Seat formerly held by Milton Orkopoulos. No by-election held after MP's resignation.
  7. Allen held now-abolished district of Wentworthville, but is not running again.
  8. Gaudry is recontesting the seat as an independent
  9. Margin to ALP shown
  10. Seat formerly known as Georges River
  11. Pringle is recontesting the seat as an independent
  12. Electorate formerly known as The Hills
  13. Andrews currently represents the now-abolished seat of Peats
  14. Two-candidate preferred result against Liberal Party
  15. Seaton represented the now-abolished seat of Southern Highlands
  16. Notional National Party seat
  17. Seat formerly known as Gosford
  18. "The Australian | The Australian Homepage | TheAustralian". Theaustralian.news.com.au. Retrieved 16 July 2010.
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