Post-election pendulum for the 2018 Victorian state election

The Labor party won the 2018 state election by winning 55 of the 88 lower house seats. The coalition won 27 seats (Liberal 21 and Nationals 6) while the Greens and independents won 3 each.

Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."[1]

Pendulum

The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the cross benches according to the percentage-point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

LABOR SEATS - 2018
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Bayswater Jackson Taylor ALP 0.39%
Hawthorn John Kennedy ALP 0.42%
Nepean Chris Brayne ALP 0.91%
Northcote Kat Theophanous ALP 1.71% v GRN
Mount Waverley Matt Fregon ALP 1.85%
Box Hill Paul Hamer ALP 2.11%
Bass Jordan Crugnale ALP 2.39%
Ringwood Dustin Halse ALP 2.82%
Burwood Will Fowles ALP 3.31%
Melton Steve McGhie ALP 4.29%
South Barwon Darren Cheeseman ALP 4.60%
Richmond Richard Wynne ALP 5.46% v GRN
Fairly safe
Geelong Christine Couzens ALP 6.23% v IND
Narre Warren South Gary Maas ALP 6.90%
Pascoe Vale Lizzie Blandthorn ALP 8.58% v IND
Monbulk James Merlino ALP 8.60%
Werribee Tim Pallas ALP 8.78% v IND
Eltham Vicki Ward ALP 9.09%
Frankston Paul Edbrooke ALP 9.74%
Narre Warren North Luke Donnellan ALP 9.76%
Safe
Wendouree Juliana Addison ALP 10.26%
Cranbourne Pauline Richards ALP 10.98%
Bellarine Lisa Neville ALP 11.45%
Bentleigh Nick Staikos ALP 11.92%
Carrum Sonya Kilkenny ALP 11.95%
Bendigo East Jacinta Allan ALP 12.11%
Buninyong Michaela Settle ALP 12.24%
Ivanhoe Anthony Carbines ALP 12.36%
Niddrie Ben Carroll ALP 12.59%
Mulgrave Daniel Andrews ALP 12.71%
Mordialloc Tim Richardson ALP 12.90%
Albert Park Martin Foley ALP 13.13%
Macedon Mary-Anne Thomas ALP 13.18%
Sunbury Josh Bull ALP 14.33%
Altona Jill Hennessy ALP 14.57%
Keysborough Martin Pakula ALP 14.85%
Oakleigh Steve Dimopoulos ALP 15.78%
Essendon Danny Pearson ALP 15.86%
Yan Yean Danielle Green ALP 17.03%
Bundoora Colin Brooks ALP 17.42%
Clarinda Meng Heang Tak ALP 17.43%
Sydenham Natalie Hutchins ALP 17.86%
Tarneit Sarah Connolly ALP 18.02%
Bendigo West Maree Edwards ALP 18.55%
Lara John Eren ALP 19.14%
Very safe
Yuroke Ros Spence ALP 20.26%
Preston Robin Scott ALP 20.70% v GRN
St Albans Natalie Suleyman ALP 21.54%
Williamstown Melissa Horne ALP 22.07%
Dandenong Gabrielle Williams ALP 23.93%
Mill Park Lily D'Ambrosio ALP 24.9%
Kororoit Marlene Kairouz ALP 25.65%
Thomastown Bronwyn Halfpenny ALP 27.19%
Footscray Katie Hall ALP 28.11%
Broadmeadows Frank McGuire ALP 30.28%
COALITION SEATS - 2018
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Ripon Louise Staley LIB 0.02%
Caulfield David Southwick LIB 0.27%
Sandringham Brad Rowswell LIB 0.64%
Gembrook Brad Battin LIB 0.79%
Hastings Neale Burgess LIB 1.07%
Brighton James Newbury LIB 1.12%
Forest Hill Neil Angus LIB 1.16%
Ferntree Gully Nick Wakeling LIB 1.64%
Croydon David Hodgett LIB 2.12%
South-West Coast Roma Britnell LIB 2.31%
Eildon Cindy McLeish LIB 2.44%
Benambra Bill Tilley LIB 2.45% v IND
Evelyn Bridget Vallence LIB 2.65%
Warrandyte Ryan Smith LIB 3.88%
Kew Tim Smith LIB 4.78%
Mornington David Morris LIB 5.00%
Polwarth Richard Riordan LIB 5.40%
Rowville Kim Wells LIB 5.69%
Bulleen Matthew Guy LIB 5.77%
Fairly safe
Malvern Michael O'Brien LIB 6.1%
Narracan Gary Blackwood LIB 7.26%
Safe
Ovens Valley Tim McCurdy NAT 12.63%
Gippsland South Danny O'Brien NAT 15.33%
Euroa Steph Ryan NAT 15.44%
Gippsland East Tim Bull NAT 17.59%
Very safe
Lowan Emma Kealy NAT 23.48%
Murray Plains Peter Walsh NAT 23.95%
CROSSBENCH SEATS - 2018
Mildura Ali Cupper IND 0.34% v NAT
Brunswick Tim Read GRN 0.57% v ALP
Melbourne Ellen Sandell GRN 1.32% v ALP
Morwell Russell Northe IND 1.84% v ALP
Shepparton Suzanna Sheed IND 5.3% v LIB
Prahran Sam Hibbins GRN 7.54% v LIB

References

  1. "State Election 2018 - Summary - Victorian Electoral Commission". www.vec.vic.gov.au. Retrieved 2018-12-11.
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