Statewide opinion polling for the 2004 United States presidential election

This article provides a collection of statewide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the 2004 United States presidential election. All candidates involved in polling are John Kerry, against incumbent President George W. Bush

Opinion polling

Alabama

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)

Poll Source	Date administered (2004)	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	October 21–30	42%	53%	11	Not reported	Not reported
WKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSA	October 25–27	39%	57%	18	634 LV	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	October 6–20	41%	53%	12	Not reported	Not reported
WKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSA	October 1–3	34%	62%	28	600 LV	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	September 15–28	40%	56%	16	Not reported	Not reported
American Research Group	September 13–16	40%	54%	14	600 LV	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	September 3–14	42%	53%	11	416 LV	±5%
Alabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research Center	August 30–31	34%	54%	20	482 LV	Not reported
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	August 1–26	42%	53%	11	500 LV	±5%
WKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSA	August 21–23	37%	58%	21	599 LV	±4.1%
Alabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research Center	July 22–28	34%	56%	22	590 LV	Not reported
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	June 1–30	38%	52%	14	Not reported	±5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	May 1–31	36%	57%	21	Not reported	±5%
Alabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research Center	May 4–6, 17–20	37%	56%	19	785 RV	±3.5%
Mobile Register/University of South Alabama	May 10–13	35%	55%	20	400 RV	±5%
WKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSA	May 1–3	36%	55%	19	743 LV	±3.7%
University of South Alabama	March 15–18	27%	59%	32	405 A	±5%

Three-way race

Poll Source	Date administered (2004)	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Ralph Nader	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
Alabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research Center	October 11–13	32%	56%	1%	24	546 LV	±4%
Mobile Register/University of South Alabama	September 27–30	22%	59%	1%	37	519 LV	±4.3%
Alabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research Center	August 9–12	34%	51%	1%	17	Not reported	Not reported
Mobile Register/University of South Alabama	May 10–13	29%	54%	5%	25	400 RV	±5%

Alaska

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)

Three-way race

Poll Source	Date administered (2004)	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Ralph Nader	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
American Research Group	September 9–11	30%	57%	5%	27	600 LV	±4%
Dittman Research	June 23–30	33%	56%	5%	23	511 RV	±4%

Arizona

10 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)

Poll Source	Date administered (2004)	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA	October 28–30	41%	56%	15	599 LV	±4.1%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	October 26	45%	50%	5	500 LV	±4.5%
The Arizona Republic/Market Solutions Group	October 18–19	40%	47%	7	600 LV	±4%
KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA	October 17–19	43%	54%	11	616 LV	±4%
Zogby Interactive	October 15–18	47%	50%	3	Not reported	Not reported
Northern Arizona University	October 7–11	44%	49%	5	401 LV	±5%
KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA	October 5–7	41%	55%	14	599 LV	±4.1%
Zogby Interactive	October 2–5	47%	50%	3	Not reported	Not reported
The Arizona Republic/Market Solutions Group	October 2–4	38%	48%	10	601 LV	±4%
SurveyUSA	September 27–29	44%	53%	9	Not reported	Not reported
KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA	September 21–23	43%	54%	11	631 LV	±4%
Bradenton.com/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research	September 13–14	39%	50%	11	625 LV	±4%
The Arizona Republic/Market Solutions Group	September 3–5	38%	54%	16	600 LV	±4%
KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University	August 19–22	39%	47%	8	400 RV	±4.9%
The Arizona Republic/Market Solutions Group	July 30–August 1	45%	48%	3	601 LV	±4%
KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University	July 15–17	42%	41%	1	Not reported	±5%
KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA	July 12–14	41%	53%	12	767 LV	±3.6%
Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll)	June 30–July 7	36%	46%	10	Not reported	Not reported
Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll)	April 29–May 4	42%	46%	4	555 RV	±4.2%
KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University	April 23–26	38%	41%	3	410 RV	±4.8%
KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA	March 17–18	42%	51%	9	634 LV	±4%
KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University	February 19–22	46%	44%	2	430 RV	±4.7%
KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA	February 18–19	44%	52%	8	534 RV	±4.3%
Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll)	January 6–12	38%	48%	10	704 A	±3.7%
KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University	November 14–17, 2003	33%	51%	18	Not reported	Not reported

Three-way race

Poll Source	Date administered (2004)	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Ralph Nader	Michael Badnarik	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University	October 19–21	42%	49%	N/A	1%	7	Not reported	Not reported
KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University	September 23–26	38%	53%	N/A	1%	15	Not reported	Not reported
Zogby Interactive	September 13–17	48%	49%	3%	N/A	1	Not reported	Not reported
American Research Group	September 11–14	43%	49%	1%	N/A	6	600 LV	±4%
KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University	June 24–27	35%	47%	2%	N/A	12	400 RV	±4.9%
The Arizona Republic/Market Solutions Group	June 10–13	41%	44%	2%	N/A	3	600 RV	±4%
KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University	May 20–23	38%	43%	2%	N/A	5	377 RV	±5.1%
Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll)	April 29–May 4	37%	45%	7%	N/A	8	555 RV	±4.2%

Arkansas

6 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)

Poll Source	Date administered	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA	October 30–November 1	46%	51%	5	550 LV	±4.3%
MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research	October 27–29	43%	51%	8	625 LV	±4%
KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA	October 23–25	45%	51%	6	649 LV	±3.9%
KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA	October 15–17	46%	51%	5	617 LV	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	October 11	45%	51%	6	Not reported	Not reported
SurveyUSA	October 1–3	44%	53%	9	Not reported	Not reported
KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA	September 27–29	44%	53%	9	579 LV	±4.2%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	September 12–25	44%	51%	7	500 LV	±5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	August 1–26	43%	49%	6	Not reported	±5%
KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA	August 20–22	47%	48%	1	567 LV	±4.2%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	July 1–31	46%	46%	Tied	Not reported	±5%
KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA	July 6–8	47%	49%	2	546 LV	±4.3%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	June 1–30	46%	45%	1	Not reported	±5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	May 1–31	43%	48%	5	Not reported	±5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	May 2	45%	45%	Tied	500 LV	±4.5%
KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA	April 14–15	45%	47%	2	565 LV	±4.2%
Arkansas State University	March 1–April 8	43%	51%	8	418 A	±5%

Three-way race

Poll Source	Date administered	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Ralph Nader	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	October 25–30	46.9%	50.1%	0.5%	3.2	620 LV	±3.9%
Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group/Opinion Research Associates	October 18–20	48%	48%	1%	Tied	500 LV	±4.5%
University of Arkansas	October 5–20	44%	53%	2%	9	618 LV	±3.5%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	October 13–18	48.4%	49.7%	0.2%	1.3	516 LV	±4.3%
Arkansas Democrat-Gazette/Zogby International	October 10–11	44.6%	46.2%	2%	1.6	503 LV	±4.5%
Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group/Opinion Research Associates	October 4–6	43%	52%	1%	9	502 LV	±4.5%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	September 30–October 5	46.9%	46.7%	0.7%	0.2	545 LV	±3.6%
American Research Group	September 15–17	45%	48%	2%	3	600 LV	±4%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	September 13–17	46.6%	46.5%	2.2%	0.1	582 LV	±4.1%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	August 30–September 3	45.9%	47.6%	0.6%	1.7	574 LV	±4.1%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	August 16–21	48.2%	45.6%	0.8%	2.6	508 LV	±4.4%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	July 26–30	46.4%	47.9%	0.5%	1.5	503 LV	±4.4%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	July 19–23	44.6%	47.4%	2%	2.8	512 LV	±4.3%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	July 6–10	44.5%	46.7%	4.4%	2.2	508 LV	±4.4%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	June 15–20	46.8%	44.7%	2.1%	2.1	505 LV	±4.4%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	June 1–6	43.5%	51.2%	1.6%	7.7	699 LV	±3.7%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	May 18–23	44.5%	49.3%	1.2%	4.8	497 LV	±4.5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	May 2	45%	45%	0%	Tied	500 LV	±4.5%

California

55 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)

Poll Source	Date administered	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
KABC-TV Los Angeles/KPIX-TV San Francisco/KXTV-TV Sacramento/KGTV-TV San Diego/SurveyUSA	October 29–31	54%	43%	11	767 LV	±3.6%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	October 17–30	53%	43%	10	Not reported	Not reported
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)	October 21–27	49%	42%	7	1,086 LV	±3.2%
KABC-TV Los Angeles/KPIX-TV San Francisco/KXTV-TV Sacramento/KGTV-TV San Diego/SurveyUSA	October 23–25	53%	44%	9	743 LV	±3.7%
Los Angeles Times	October 14–18	58%	40%	18	925 LV	±3%
KABC-TV Los Angeles/KPIX-TV San Francisco/KXTV-TV Sacramento/KGTV-TV San Diego/SurveyUSA	October 15–17	53%	43%	10	703 LV	±3.8%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	October 5–11	51%	43%	8	Not reported	Not reported
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	September 29–October 5	53%	42%	11	864 LV	±4%
KABC-TV Los Angeles/KPIX-TV San Francisco/KXTV-TV Sacramento/KGTV-TV San Diego/SurveyUSA	October 2–4	51%	43%	8	748 LV	±3.7%
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)	September 30–October 3	49%	40%	9	586 LV	±4.3%
San José State University	September 27–October 1	48%	42%	6	600 LV	±4%
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)	September 24–29	49%	41%	8	549 LV	±4.3%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	September 19–25	53%	40%	13	848 LV	±4%
Los Angeles Times	September 17–21	55%	40%	15	861 LV	±3%
Public Policy Institute of California	September 12–19	51%	39%	12	1,151 LV	±3%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	September 11–17	55%	39%	16	Not reported	Not reported
American Research Group	September 11–13	52%	41%	11	600 LV	±4%
KABC-TV Los Angeles/KPIX-TV San Francisco/KXTV-TV Sacramento/KGTV-TV San Diego/SurveyUSA	September 6–8	52%	42%	10	598 LV	±4.1%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	August 27–September 3	50%	42%	8	608 LV	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	August 16–26	51%	42%	9	654 LV	Not reported
KABC-TV Los Angeles/KPIX-TV San Francisco/KXTV-TV Sacramento/KGTV-TV San Diego/SurveyUSA	August 16–18	49%	46%	3	589 LV	±4.1%
Public Policy Institute of California	August 4–11	54%	38%	16	1,117 LV	±3%
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)	July 30–August 4	53%	41%	12	633 LV	±4.1%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	July 1–31	55%	37%	18	Not reported	±3%
San José State University	June 28–July 2	50%	39%	11	608 LV	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	June 1–30	52%	38%	14	Not reported	±3%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	May 1–31	49%	41%	8	Not reported	±3%
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)	May 18–24	55%	40%	15	647 RV	±4%
KABC-TV Los Angeles/KPIX-TV San Francisco/KXTV-TV Sacramento/KGTV-TV San Diego/SurveyUSA	May 4–6	46%	45%	1	635 LV	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	April 17–24	51%	40%	11	502 LV	±5%
Los Angeles Times	April 17–21	53%	41%	12	1,265 RV	±3%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	March 5–11	53%	44%	9	445 LV	±5%
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)	February 18–22	53%	41%	12	958 RV	±3.3%
Los Angeles Times	February 18–22	53%	40%	13	560 LV	±4%
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)	January 5–13	39%	48%	9	929 RV	±3.4%
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)	September 25–October 1, 2003	42%	46%	4	Not reported	±4.5%
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)	September 3–7, 2003	42%	45%	3	649 RV	±4.0%

Three-way race

Poll Source	Date administered (2004)	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Ralph Nader	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
Los Angeles Times	September 17–21	53%	40%	2%	13	861 LV	±3%
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)	July 30–August 4	51%	40%	2%	11	633 LV	±4.1%
KABC-TV Los Angeles/KPIX-TV San Francisco/KXTV-TV Sacramento/KGTV-TV San Diego/SurveyUSA	July 23–25	53%	41%	3%	12	711 LV	±3.8%
Public Policy Institute of California	June 30–July 14	49%	38%	5%	11	1,378 LV	±2.7%
San José State University	June 28–July 2	46%	38%	7%	8	608 LV	±4%
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)	May 18–24	51%	39%	4%	12	647 RV	±4%
Los Angeles Times	April 17–21	49%	39%	6%	10	1,265 RV	±3%

Colorado

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)

Poll Source	Date administered	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
KUSA-TV Denver/SurveyUSA	October 30–November 1	47%	50%	3	705 LV	±3.8%
Zogby International (Daily Tracking)	October 29–November 1	47%	49%	2	601 LV	±4.1%
KUSA-TV Denver/KOAA-TV Colorado Springs/SurveyUSA	October 28–30	46%	52%	6	626 LV	±4%
Zogby International (Daily Tracking)	October 25–28	48%	47%	1	601 LV	±4.1%
Rocky Mountain News/News 4/Public Opinion Strategies	October 25–27	42%	51%	9	500 LV	±4.3%
Zogby International (Daily Tracking)	October 21–24	49%	45%	4	602 LV	±4.1%
League of Conservation Voters/Fairbank, Maslin & Associates (D)	October 15–21	48%	48%	Tied	400 LV	±4.9%
KUSA-TV Denver/KOAA-TV Colorado Springs/SurveyUSA	October 18–20	45%	52%	7	597 LV	±4.1%
The Pueblo Chieftain/Ciruli Associates	October 15–19	43%	50%	7	600 LV	±4%
Zogby Interactive	October 13–18	48%	49%	1	Not reported	Not reported
USA Today/CNN/Gallup	October 14–17	46%	51%	5	666 LV	±4%
KUSA-TV Denver/KOAA-TV Colorado Springs/SurveyUSA	October 5–7	44%	52%	8	598 LV	±4.1%
Denver Post/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research	October 4–6	41%	50%	9	630 LV	±4%
USA Today/CNN/Gallup	October 3–6	49%	49%	Tied	667 LV	±5%
Zogby Interactive	October 2–6	49%	48%	1	Not reported	Not reported
KUSA-TV Denver/KOAA-TV Colorado Springs/SurveyUSA	September 21–23	44%	52%	8	626 LV	±4%
The Pueblo Chieftain/Ciruli Associates	September 14–18	39%	51%	12	600 LV	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	August 19	47%	47%	Tied	500 LV	±4.5%
KUSA-TV Denver/KOAA-TV Colorado Springs/SurveyUSA	August 14–16	47%	47%	Tied	622 LV	±4%
Denver Post/Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	June 15–18	43%	48%	5	Not reported	Not reported
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	April 14	44%	49%	5	500 LV	±4.5%

Three-way race

Poll Source	Date administered (2004)	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Ralph Nader	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research	October 27–29	43%	50%	1%	7	625 LV	±4%
The Pueblo Chieftain/Ciruli Associates	October 15–19	42%	48%	2%	6	600 LV	±4%
USA Today/CNN/Gallup	October 14–17	45%	51%	1%	6	666 LV	±4%
MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research	October 14–16	43%	49%	1%	6	630 LV	±4%
Rocky Mountain News/News 4/Public Opinion Strategies	October 13–14	42%	47%	3%	5	400 LV	±4.9%
USA Today/CNN/Gallup	October 3–6	49%	49%	1%	Tied	667 LV	±5%
The Pueblo Chieftain/Ciruli Associates	September 14–18	38%	50%	3%	12	600 LV	±4%
Zogby Interactive	September 13–17	48%	49%	3%	1	Not reported	Not reported
Rocky Mountain News/News 4/Public Opinion Strategies	September 12–13	44%	45%	3%	1	500 LV	±4.3%
American Research Group	September 10–13	45%	46%	3%	1	600 LV	±4%
Rocky Mountain News/News 4/Public Opinion Strategies	March 31–April 1	40%	49%	4%	9	400 LV	±4.9%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	March 15–16	42%	46%	4%	4	500 LV	±4.5%

Six-way race

Poll Source	Date administered (2004)	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Ralph Nader	David Cobb	Michael Badnarik	Michael Peroutka	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	October 18	45%	50%	2%	0%	1%	0%	5	500 LV	±4.5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	September 29	44%	48%	3%	1%	1%	0%	4	500 LV	±4.5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	September 16	45%	46%	3%	1%	2%	1%	1	500 LV	±4.5%

Connecticut

7 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)

Poll Source	Date administered	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
Quinnipiac University	September 26–28	51%	44%	7	723 LV	±3.6%
Quinnipiac University	August 12–17	48%	40%	8	1,079 RV	±3%
Quinnipiac University	June 27–28	55%	34%	19	929 RV	±3.2%
Quinnipiac University	May 26–June 1	50%	38%	12	1,350 RV	±2.7%
University of Connecticut	February 26–29	49%	36%	13	448 RV	±4.5%
Quinnipiac University	November 12–18, 2003	47%	46%	1	1,600 RV	±2.5%
Quinnipiac University	October 1–7, 2003	48%	44%	4	1,519 RV	±2.5%
Quinnipiac University	July 23–29, 2003	43%	49%	6	1,384 RV	±2.6%
Quinnipiac University	April 22–28, 2003	37%	54%	17	1,239 RV	±2.8%

Three-way race

Poll Source	Date administered (2004)	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Ralph Nader	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
Quinnipiac University	September 26–28	50%	44%	2%	6	723 LV	±3.6%
American Research Group	September 12–14	54%	39%	1%	15	600 LV	±4%
Quinnipiac University	August 12–17	45%	38%	6%	7	1,079 RV	±3%
Quinnipiac University	June 27–28	50%	32%	9%	18	929 RV	±3.2%
Quinnipiac University	May 26–June 1	46%	36%	8%	10	1,350 RV	±2.7%
University of Connecticut	April 21–27	51%	33%	4%	18	501 RV	±4%
University of Connecticut	March 22–28	52%	33%	4%	19	511 RV	±4%

Delaware

3 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)

Poll Source	Date administered	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Ralph Nader	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
WHYY-TV/West Chester University	September 22–25	45.2%	37.6%	0.5%	7.6	590 RV	±3.9%
American Research Group	September 13–15	50%	41%	2%	9	600 LV	±4%

District of Columbia

3 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)

Poll Source	Date administered	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Ralph Nader	Lead Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
American Research Group	September 11–13	78%	11%	6%	67	600 LV	±4%

Florida

27 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)

Poll Source	Date administered	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Lead Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
Zogby International (Daily Tracking)	October 29–November 1	48%	48%	Tied	601 LV	±4.1%
WFLA-TV Tampa/WPTV West Palm/WKMG-TV Orlando/WTLV-TV Jacksonville/WFOR Miami/WKRG Pensacola/SurveyUSA	October 29–31	48%	49%	1	742 LV	±3.7%
MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research	October 27–29	45%	49%	4	625 LV	±4%
Zogby International (Daily Tracking)	October 25–28	47%	48%	1	601 LV	±4.1%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	October 27	45%	50%	5	500 LV	±4%
America Coming Together/Hamilton Beattie (D)	October 25–27	46%	48%	2	Not reported	Not reported
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking)	October 20–26	48%	48%	Tied	567 LV	±4%
American Research Group	October 23–25	49%	47%	2	600 LV	±4%
WFLA-TV Tampa/WPTV West Palm/WKMG-TV Orlando/WTLV-TV Jacksonville/WFOR Miami/WKRG Pensacola/SurveyUSA	October 22–24	50%	48%	2	749 LV	±3.7%
Zogby International (Daily Tracking)	October 21–24	46%	49%	3	602 LV	±4.1%
Quinnipiac University	October 15–19	47%	49%	2	808 LV	±3.5%
WFLA-TV Tampa/WPTV West Palm/WKMG-TV Orlando/WTLV-TV Jacksonville/WFOR Miami/WKRG Pensacola/SurveyUSA	October 15–17	50%	49%	1	601 LV	±4.1%
Miami Herald/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research	October 14–16	45%	48%	3	625 LV	±4%
InsiderAdvantage	October 12–14	48%	44%	4	Not reported	Not reported
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking)	October 8–14	46%	49%	3	684 LV	±4%
American Research Group	October 2–5	46%	48%	2	600 LV	±4%
Quinnipiac University	October 1–5	44%	51%	7	717 LV	±3.7%
WFLA-TV Tampa/WPTV West Palm/WKMG-TV Orlando/WTLV-TV Jacksonville/WFOR Miami/WKRG Pensacola/SurveyUSA	October 1–3	46%	51%	5	711 LV	±3.8%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking)	September 27–October 3	47%	51%	4	781 LV	±4%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup	September 24–27	43%	53%	10	704 LV	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking)	September 18–24	49%	48%	1	Not reported	±4%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup	September 18–22	47%	49%	2	674 LV	±4%
Quinnipiac University	September 18–21	43%	48%	5	819 RV	±3.4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	September 11–17	47%	48%	1	Not reported	±4%
WFLA-TV Tampa/WPTV West Palm/WKMG-TV Orlando/WTLV-TV Jacksonville/WFOR Miami/WKRG Pensacola/SurveyUSA	September 12–14	45%	51%	6	607 LV	±4.1%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup	August 20–22	47%	48%	1	671 LV	±4%
Quinnipiac University	August 5–10	49%	42%	7	1,094 RV	±3%
American Research Group	August 3–5	52%	44%	8	600 LV	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	July 1–31	47%	45%	2	Not reported	±4%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup	July 19–22	47%	50%	3	699 LV	±4%
Los Angeles Times	July 19–21	45%	45%	Tied	729 RV	±4%
Sayfie Review/InsiderAdvantage	July 19–20	46%	46%	Tied	687 RV	±4%
American Research Group	July 13–15	49%	45%	4	600 LV	±4%
WFLA-TV Tampa/WPTV-TV Palm Beach/WKRG-TV Mobile/WKMG-TV Orlando/WTLV-TV Jacksonville/SurveyUSA	July 9–11	47%	44%	3	732 LV	±3.7%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	June 1–30	48%	43%	5	Not reported	±4%
Quinnipiac University	June 23–27	46%	44%	2	1,209 RV	±2.8%
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation	June 22–23	41%	50%	9	750 RV	±4%
American Research Group	June 21–23	48%	46%	2	600 LV	±4%
WFLA-TV Tampa/WPTV-TV Palm Beach/WKRG-TV Mobile/WKMG-TV Orlando/WTLV-TV Jacksonville/SurveyUSA	June 12–14	43%	50%	7	723 LV	±3.7%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	May 1–31	46%	46%	Tied	Not reported	±4%
American Research Group	May 17–19	47%	47%	Tied	600 LV	±4%
America Coming Together/Hamilton Beattie (D)	April 29–May 9	50%	47%	3	1,000 LV	±3%
American Research Group	April 18–21	47%	47%	Tied	600 LV	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	April 13	47%	46%	1	500 LV	±4.5%
Tampa Tribune/News Channel 8/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research	March 30–April 1	43%	51%	8	625 RV	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	March 1–13	48%	45%	3	400 LV	±5%
St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Schroth, Eldon & Associates/The Polling Company	December 1–3, 2003	38%	51%	13	800 RV	±3.5%
Tampa Tribune/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research	November 17–19, 2003	34%	57%	23	625 RV	Not reported

Three-way race

Poll Source	Date administered (2004)	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Ralph Nader	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
American Research Group	October 30–November 1	50%	48%	1%	2	600 LV	±4%
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation	October 30–31	49%	44%	1%	5	700 LV	±4%
InsiderAdvantage	October 29–31	48%	48%	1%	Tied	400 LV	±5%
Quinnipiac University	October 27–31	43%	51%	1%	8	1,098 LV	±3%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup	October 27–30	49%	46%	0%	3	1,138 LV	±4%
New York Times Regional Newspapers/Florida Poll	October 23–27	48.3%	46.7%	1.5%	1.6	802 LV	±3%
Quinnipiac University	October 22–26	46%	49%	1%	3	944 LV	±3.2%
Los Angeles Times	October 22–26	43%	51%	2%	8	510 LV	±4%
American Research Group	October 23–25	46%	49%	1%	3	600 LV	±4%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup	October 21–24	43%	51%	1%	8	601 LV	±4.1%
St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Schroth, Eldon & Associates/The Polling Company Inc.	October 19–21	46%	46%	1%	Tied	800 LV	±3.5%
InsiderAdvantage	October 19–21	46%	46%	2%	Tied	Not reported	Not reported
Quinnipiac University	October 15–19	47%	48%	1%	1	808 LV	±3.5%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	October 13–18	48.9%	50.1%	0.3%	1.2	2,131 LV	±2.1%
University of North Florida	October 10–15	45%	44%	2%	1	614 LV	±4%
Univision/Washington Post	October 4–10	48%	48%	1%	Tied	655 LV	±4%
NBC2 News/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research	October 4–5	44%	48%	2%	4	625 LV	±4%
American Research Group	October 2–5	47%	45%	2%	2	600 LV	±4%
Quinnipiac University	October 1–5	44%	51%	0%	7	717 LV	±3.7%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	September 30–October 5	49.5%	49.1%	0.5%	0.4	1,925 LV	±2.2%
America Coming Together/Hamilton Beattie (D)	October 1–4	49%	47%	2%	2	800 LV	±3.5%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup	September 24–27	43%	52%	1%	9	704 LV	±4%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup	September 18–22	46%	49%	1%	3	674 LV	±4%
Quinnipiac University	September 18–21	41%	49%	5%	8	819 RV	±3.4%
American Research Group	September 17–20	46%	45%	2%	1	600 LV	±4%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	September 13–17	48.1%	47.6%	0.9%	0.5	1,669 LV	±2.4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	September 6–12	47%	48%	1%	1	Not reported	±4%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	August 30–September 3	49.4%	49.1%	0.6%	0.3	1,679 LV	±2.4%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup	August 20–22	46%	48%	2%	2	671 LV	±4%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	August 16–21	49.6%	49%	0.3%	0.6	1,421 LV	±2.6%
Quinnipiac University	August 5–10	47%	41%	4%	6	1,094 RV	±3%
American Research Group	August 3–5	50%	43%	2%	7	600 LV	±4%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	July 26–30	49.5%	46.7%	2%	2.8	1,587 LV	±2.5%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	July 19–23	48.4%	48.5%	0.9%	0.1	1,500 LV	±2.5%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup	July 19–22	46%	50%	1%	4	699 LV	±4%
Orlando Sentinel/WESH NewsChannel 2/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research	July 19–21	46%	48%	2%	2	625 LV	±4%
Los Angeles Times	July 19–21	44%	45%	2%	1	729 RV	±4%
American Research Group	July 13–15	47%	44%	3%	3	600 LV	±4%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	July 6–10	50.8%	44.2%	2.9%	6.6	1,156 LV	±2.9%
Quinnipiac University	June 23–27	43%	43%	5%	Tied	1,209 RV	±2.8%
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation	June 22–23	38%	48%	3%	10	750 RV	±4%
American Research Group	June 21–23	47%	46%	2%	1	600 LV	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	June 18–22	48%	42%	1%	6	Not reported	±4%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	June 15–20	46.1%	50.3%	0.5%	4.2	1,429 LV	±2.6%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	June 11–17	48%	44%	1%	4	Not reported	±4%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	June 1–6	49.5%	47.9%	0.6%	1.6	1,170 LV	±2.9%
Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive	May 18–23	49%	47.6%	1%	1.4	857 LV	±3.4%
American Research Group	May 17–19	46%	47%	3%	1	600 LV	±4%
American Coming Together/Hamilton Beattie (D)	April 29–May 9	48%	46%	3%	2	1,000 LV	±3%
American Research Group	April 18–21	45%	46%	3%	1	600 LV	±4%
American Research Group	March 3–4	45%	44%	4%	1	600 LV	±4%
St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Schroth, Eldon & Associates/The Polling Company	March 3–4	49%	43%	3%	6	800 RV	±3.5%

Five-way race

Poll Source	Date administered (2004)	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Ralph Nader	David Cobb	Michael Badnarik	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	August 24	47%	49%	2%	1%	1%	2	500 LV	±4.5%

Georgia

15 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)

Poll Source	Date administered (2004)	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
WXIA-TV Atlanta/SurveyUSA	October 28–30	41%	53%	12	628 LV	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	October 24–30	39%	54%	15	Not reported	±5%
Atlanta Journal-Constitution/WSB-TV/Zogby International	October 27–29	42%	52%	10	501 LV	±4.5%
WXIA-TV Atlanta/SurveyUSA	October 18–20	40%	57%	17	609 LV	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	October 14–20	38%	58%	20	Not reported	±5%
Atlanta Journal-Constitution/WSB-TV/Zogby International	October 13–15	41%	51%	10	503 LV	±4.5%
Atlanta Journal-Constitution/WSB-TV/Zogby International	October 6–8	39%	54%	15	501 LV	±4.5%
WXIA-TV Atlanta/SurveyUSA	October 5–7	39%	58%	19	594 LV	±4.1%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	September 24–30	39%	54%	15	Not reported	±5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	September 9–22	42%	53%	11	400 LV	±5%
WXIA-TV Atlanta/SurveyUSA	September 13–15	38%	58%	20	658 LV	±3.9%
American Research Group	September 11–13	42%	53%	11	600 LV	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	August 1–26	43%	54%	11	Not reported	±5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	July 1–31	42%	53%	11	Not reported	±5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	June 1–30	41%	52%	11	Not reported	±5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	May 1–31	39%	51%	12	Not reported	±5%

Three-way race

Poll Source	Date administered (2004)	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Ralph Nader	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
InsiderAdvantage	May 31–June 2	32%	49%	3%	17	Not reported	Not reported
Shapiro Research Group	February 5–9	44%	47%	1%	3	Not reported	Not reported

Hawaii

4 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)

Poll Source	Date administered (2004)	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
Star-Bulletin/KITV-4 News/SMS Research	October 17–20	45%	46%	1	612 LV	±4%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser/Ward Research	October 13–18	42.6%	43.3%	0.7	600 LV	±4%

Three-way race

Poll Source	Date administered (2004)	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Ralph Nader	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
American Research Group	September 7–11	51%	41%	4%	10	600 LV	±4%
Star-Bulletin/KITV-4 News/SMS Research	July 29–August 3	48%	41%	1%	7	681 RV	±3.7%

Idaho

4 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)

Poll Source	Date administered (2004)	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Ralph Nader	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
American Research Group	September 8–10	30%	59%	3%	29	600 LV	±4%
KTVB-TV/KIDO Radio/Greg Smith & Associates	June 8–10, 14	25%	55%	6%	30	400 LV	Not reported

Illinois

21 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)

Poll Source	Date administered (2004)	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV/Market Shares Corp.	October 16–19	50%	42%	8	700 LV	±4%
WBBM-TV Chicago/KSDK-TV St. Louis/SurveyUSA	October 4–6	55%	39%	16	644 LV	±4%
Daily Southtown/Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	October 4	52%	41%	11	500 LV	±4.5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	September 9–22	51%	42%	9	Not reported	±4%
Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV/Market Shares Corp.	September 17–20	49%	40%	9	700 LV	±4%
WBBM-TV Chicago/KSDK-TV St. Louis/SurveyUSA	September 12–14	49%	45%	4	618 LV	±4%
Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV/Market Shares Corp.	August 13–16	52%	38%	14	700 LV	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	July 1–31	54%	39%	15	Not reported	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	June 1–30	53%	37%	16	Not reported	±4%
WBBM-TV Chicago/KSDK-TV St. Louis/SurveyUSA	June 7–9	52%	39%	13	742 LV	±3.7%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	May 1–31	54%	38%	16	Not reported	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	March 12	48%	43%	5	500 LV	±4.5%
Daily Southtown/Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	March 3	52%	39%	13	448 LV	±4.5%

Three-way race

Poll Source	Date administered (2004)	John Kerry	George W. Bush	Ralph Nader	Margin	Sample size	Margin of error
American Research Group	September 13–16	49%	43%	2%	6	600 LV	±4%
Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV/Market Shares Corp.	May 21–24	53%	37%	4%	16	600 LV	±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	March 12	46%	41%	8%	5	500 LV	±4.5%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research	March 8–10	39%	47%	2%	8	625 RV	±4%

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