Sub-national opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election
Polling was conducted separately in the constituent countries of the United Kingdom. Of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, England had 533, Scotland had 59, Wales had 40 and Northern Ireland had 18.
England
Graph of opinion polls conducted
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 May 2015 | General Election results | – | 41.0% | 31.6% | 8.2% | 14.1% | 4.2% | 0.9% | 9.4% |
| 6 May 2015 | Survation[1] | 919 | 40% | 32% | 11% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 8% |
| 5–6 May 2015 | ComRes/Daily Mail, ITV News | 866 | 38% | 36% | 9% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
| 5–6 May 2015 | Lord Ashcroft[2] | 2,593 | 35% | 33% | 10% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 2% |
| 4–6 May 2015 | Survation/Daily Mirror | 3,566 | 34% | 32% | 10% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 2% |
| 3–6 May 2015 | ICM/The Guardian[3][n 1] | 1,727 | 37% | 37% | 8% | 13% | 4% | 1% | Tie |
| 3–6 May 2015 | ICM/The Guardian[3][n 2] | 1,330 | 38% | 37% | 8% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 4–5 May 2015 | Opinium | 2,493 | 37% | 35% | 8% | 12% | 7% | 1% | 2% |
| 4–5 May 2015 | Survation/Daily Mirror | 1,276 | 35% | 34% | 9% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| 3–5 May 2015 | ComRes/Daily Mail, ITV News | 880 | 38% | 34% | 8% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 4% |
| 3–5 May 2015 | BMG/May2015.com, New Statesman | 887 | 37% | 34% | 10% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 3% |
| 1–3 May 2015 | Lord Ashcroft[2] | 858 | 35% | 32% | 10% | 13% | 7% | 4% | 3% |
| 1–2 May 2015 | Survation/Mail on Sunday | 1,852 | 34% | 35% | 8% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| 30 Apr–1 May 2015 | Survation/Daily Mirror | 978 | 36% | 34% | 10% | 17% | 4% | <0.5% | 2% |
| 30 Apr 2015 | Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband broadcast on BBC One; Ask Nicola Sturgeon, Ask Leanne Wood and Ask Nigel Farage programmes also shown | ||||||||
| 28–30 Apr 2015 | ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror | 868 | 35% | 34% | 8% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% |
| 28–30 Apr 2015 | Opinium/The Observer | 1,658 | 37% | 34% | 7% | 14% | 6% | <0.5% | 3% |
| 27–28 Apr 2015 | ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail | 872 | 36% | 36% | 8% | 12% | 6% | 2% | Tie |
| 25–27 Apr 2015 | BMG/May2015.com | 877 | 39% | 31% | 11% | 15% | 4% | <0.5% | 8% |
| 24–26 Apr 2015 | Lord Ashcroft[2] | 870 | 37% | 32% | 9% | 12% | 8% | 1% | 5% |
| 24–26 Apr 2015 | ICM/The Guardian[3] | 863 | 39% | 32% | 7% | 15% | 6% | <0.5% | 7% |
| 24–25 Apr 2015 | Survation/Mail on Sunday | 879 | 36% | 31% | 9% | 20% | 4% | <0.5% | 5% |
| 21–24 Apr 2015 | Opinium/The Observer | 1,668 | 36% | 33% | 9% | 15% | 7% | 1% | 3% |
| 22–23 Apr 2015 | Survation/Daily Mirror | 1,072 | 36% | 29% | 10% | 20% | 5% | <0.5% | 7% |
| 21–22 Apr 2015 | ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail | 890 | 39% | 34% | 8% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 5% |
| 17–19 Apr 2015 | Lord Ashcroft[2] | 863 | 36% | 33% | 9% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 3% |
| 17–19 Apr 2015 | ICM/The Guardian[3] | 863 | 38% | 35% | 9% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 3% |
| 16–17 Apr 2015 | Opinium/The Observer | 1,655 | 38% | 32% | 9% | 14% | 6% | 1% | 6% |
| 16–17 Apr 2015 | Survation/Daily Mirror | 986 | 35% | 34% | 8% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 16 Apr 2015 | Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One | ||||||||
| 12–15 Apr 2015 | Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard | 600 | 35% | 37% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 1% | 2% |
| 10–12 Apr 2015 | Lord Ashcroft[2] | 870 | 34% | 36% | 9% | 14% | 6% | 1% | 2% |
| 10–12 Apr 2015 | ICM/The Guardian[3] | 900 | 41% | 35% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 1% | 6% |
| 8–9 Apr 2015 | Opinium/The Observer | 1,626 | 39% | 35% | 8% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 4% |
| 8–9 Apr 2015 | Survation/Daily Mirror | 838 | 33% | 36% | 9% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 3% |
| 7–8 Apr 2015 | ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail | 718 | 36% | 35% | 11% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| 2–3 Apr 2015 | Survation/Daily Mirror | 856 | 34% | 33% | 9% | 21% | 3% | <0.5% | 1% |
| 2–3 Apr 2015 | Opinium/The Observer | 1,710 | 35% | 34% | 7% | 15% | 7% | 1% | 1% |
| 2 Apr 2015 | Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV | ||||||||
| 30 Mar 2015 | Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign | ||||||||
| 28–29 Mar 2015 | ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail | 864 | 38% | 32% | 9% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 6% |
| 27–29 Mar 2015 | Lord Ashcroft[2] | 865 | 40% | 34% | 7% | 11% | 7% | 1% | 6% |
| 26 Mar 2015 | First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4 | ||||||||
| 24–25 Mar 2015 | Opinium/The Observer | 1,690 | 35% | 34% | 9% | 13% | 7% | <0.5% | 1% |
| 24–25 Mar 2015 | Survation/Daily Mirror | 851 | 34% | 34% | 8% | 20% | 4% | <0.5% | Tie |
| 20–22 Mar 2015 | ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail | 864 | 38% | 35% | 8% | 11% | 7% | 1% | 3% |
| 20–22 Mar 2015 | Lord Ashcroft[2] | 860 | 36% | 33% | 8% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 3% |
| 20–21 Mar 2015 | Survation/Mail on Sunday | 861 | 31% | 35% | 10% | 19% | 3% | 1% | 4% |
| 18–19 Mar 2015 | Opinium/The Observer | 1,702 | 37% | 33% | 7% | 14% | 7% | 1% | 4% |
| 13–15 Mar 2015 | Lord Ashcroft[2] | 863 | 34% | 29% | 8% | 18% | 9% | 3% | 5% |
| 13–15 Mar 2015 | ICM/The Guardian[3] | 910 | 38% | 37% | 6% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% |
| 10–12 Mar 2015 | Opinium/The Observer | 1,654 | 35% | 35% | 7% | 15% | 7% | <0.5% | Tie |
| 8–11 Mar 2015 | Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard | 863 | 34% | 37% | 8% | 14% | 6% | 1% | 3% |
| 6–8 Mar 2015 | Lord Ashcroft[2] | 859 | 36% | 31% | 5% | 18% | 9% | 1% | 5% |
| 3–6 Mar 2015 | Opinium/The Observer | 1,626 | 36% | 33% | 7% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 3% |
| 27 Feb–1 Mar 2015 | Lord Ashcroft[2] | 860 | 36% | 32% | 8% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 4% |
| 24–26 Feb 2015 | Opinium/The Observer | 1,679 | 35% | 36% | 7% | 14% | 6% | 1% | 1% |
| 23 Feb 2015 | Survation/Daily Mirror | 921 | 30% | 34% | 10% | 21% | 3% | 2% | 4% |
| 20–23 Feb 2015 | ComRes/Daily Mail | 865 | 36% | 32% | 7% | 14% | 9% | 2% | 4% |
| 20–22 Feb 2015 | Lord Ashcroft[2] | 867 | 32% | 38% | 6% | 13% | 8% | 2% | 6% |
| 17–20 Feb 2015 | Opinium/The Observer | 1,704 | 36% | 33% | 7% | 16% | 7% | 1% | 3% |
| 13–15 Feb 2015 | Lord Ashcroft[2] | 863 | 31% | 31% | 9% | 18% | 9% | 3% | Tie |
| 13–15 Feb 2015 | ICM/The Guardian[3] | 860 | 38% | 34% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 2% | 4% |
| 10–12 Feb 2015 | Opinium/The Observer | 1,713 | 35% | 35% | 8% | 15% | 5% | 1% | Tie |
| 8–10 Feb 2015 | Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard | 844 | 38% | 37% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 0% | 1% |
| 6–8 Feb 2015 | Lord Ashcroft[2] | 860 | 36% | 31% | 9% | 16% | 7% | 1% | 5% |
| 3–6 Feb 2015 | Opinium/The Observer | 1,947 | 33% | 35% | 7% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 2% |
| 30 Jan–1 Feb 2015 | Lord Ashcroft[2] | 857 | 34% | 30% | 8% | 17% | 10% | 1% | 4% |
| 25 Jan 2015 | Survation/Daily Mirror | 890 | 34% | 30% | 7% | 25% | 4% | <0.5% | 4% |
| 23–25 Jan 2015 | ComRes/The Independent | 852 | 33% | 29% | 9% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 4% |
| 22–25 Jan 2015 | Lord Ashcroft[2] | 859 | 33% | 34% | 5% | 17% | 9% | 2% | 1% |
| 16–19 Jan 2015 | ICM/The Guardian[3] | 863 | 32% | 35% | 8% | 14% | 10% | 1% | 3% |
| 16–18 Jan 2015 | Lord Ashcroft[2] | 871 | 31% | 27% | 9% | 17% | 12% | 4% | 4% |
| 11–13 Jan 2015 | Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard | 854 | 35% | 35% | 8% | 12% | 8% | 2% | Tie |
| 9–11 Jan 2015 | Lord Ashcroft[2] | 858 | 37% | 29% | 7% | 17% | 8% | 2% | 8% |
| 12–16 Dec 2014 | ICM/The Guardian[3] | 861 | 31% | 33% | 11% | 17% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
| 13–15 Dec 2014 | Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard | 840 | 36% | 31% | 9% | 14% | 10% | 0% | 5% |
| 12–14 Dec 2014 | ComRes/The Independent | 897 | 29% | 34% | 12% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 5% |
| 5–7 Dec 2014 | Lord Ashcroft[2] | 860 | 31% | 31% | 7% | 23% | 6% | 2% | Tie |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | – | 39.6% | 28.1% | 24.2% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 3.6% | 11.5% |
Scotland
Graph of opinion polls conducted
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Lab | Con | Lib Dem | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 May 2015 | General Election results | – | 50.0% | 24.3% | 14.9% | 7.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 25.7% |
| 4–6 May 2015 | YouGov/The Sun, The Times | 1,351 | 48% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 20% |
| 3–6 May 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,660 | 46% | 26% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 20% |
| 1–6 May 2015 | Panelbase/Wings over Scotland | 1,013 | 48% | 26% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 22% |
| 3 May 2015 | The Leaders' Debate featuring Ruth Davidson, Jim Murphy, Willie Rennie and Nicola Sturgeon broadcast on BBC One Scotland and BBC News | |||||||||
| 29 Apr–1 May 2015 | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,162 | 49% | 26% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 23% |
| 30 Apr 2015 | Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband broadcast on BBC One; Ask Nicola Sturgeon programme also shown | |||||||||
| 22–27 Apr 2015 | Ipsos MORI/STV News | 1,071 | 54% | 20% | 17% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 34% |
| 22–27 Apr 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,015 | 51% | 26% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <0.5% | 25% |
| 20–23 Apr 2015 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,044 | 48% | 27% | 16% | 4% | 3% | 2% | <0.5% | 21% |
| 16–20 Apr 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,111 | 49% | 25% | 17% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 24% |
| 1–19 Apr 2015 | TNS | 1,003 | 54% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 32% |
| 16 Apr 2015 | Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One | |||||||||
| 12 Apr 2015 | Four-way Scottish Leaders' Debate on BBC Scotland, for Sunday Politics Scotland | |||||||||
| 8–9 Apr 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,056 | 49% | 25% | 18% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 24% |
| 8 Apr 2015 | Six-way Scottish Leaders' Debate on BBC Scotland | |||||||||
| 18 Mar–8 Apr 2015 | TNS | 978 | 52% | 24% | 13% | 6% | <0.5% | 3% | 0% | 28% |
| 7 Apr 2015 | Four-way Scottish Leaders' Debate on STV | |||||||||
| 2 Apr 2015 | Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV | |||||||||
| 30 Mar–2 Apr 2015 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,006 | 45% | 29% | 14% | 4% | 4% | 2% | <0.5% | 16% |
| 26–31 Mar 2015 | YouGov/Scottish Sun | 1,864 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 3% | 2% | 2% | <0.5% | 17% |
| 30 Mar 2015 | Dissolution of the UK Parliament and the official start of the election campaign | |||||||||
| 26 Mar 2015 | First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4 | |||||||||
| 13–19 Mar 2015 | ICM/The Guardian | 1,002 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 16% |
| 12–17 Mar 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,027 | 47% | 26% | 16% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 21% |
| 10–12 March 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,049 | 46% | 27% | 18% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 19% |
| 6–10 Mar 2015 | Survation/Unison Scotland | 1,005 | 47% | 28% | 15% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 19% |
| 30 Jan–22 Feb 2015 | TNS | 1,001 | 46% | 30% | 14% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 16% |
| 12–17 Feb 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,011 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 17% |
| 29 Jan–2 Feb 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,001 | 48% | 27% | 15% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 21% |
| 14 Jan–2 Feb 2015 | TNS | 1,006 | 41% | 31% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 1% | 10% |
| 12–19 Jan 2015 | Ipsos MORI/STV News | 774 | 52% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 28% |
| 12–16 Jan 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,006 | 46% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 20% |
| 9–14 Jan 2015 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,007 | 41% | 31% | 14% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 10% | |
| 16–18 Dec 2014 | ICM/The Guardian | 1,004 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 17% |
| 15–18 Dec 2014 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 48% | 24% | 16% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 24% |
| 13 Dec 2014 | Jim Murphy becomes Leader of the Scottish Labour Party | |||||||||
| 9–11 Dec 2014 | YouGov/The Sun | 1,081 | 47% | 27% | 16% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 20% |
| 27 Nov | Release of Smith Commission Report | |||||||||
| 20 Nov | Nicola Sturgeon becomes First Minister of Scotland | |||||||||
| 6–13 Nov 2014 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 46% | 24% | 17% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 22% |
| 30 Oct–4 Nov 2014 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1,000 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 3% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 17% |
| 27–30 Oct 2014 | YouGov/The Times | 1,078 | 43% | 27% | 15% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 16% |
| 22–29 Oct 2014 | Ipsos Mori/STV | 769 | 52% | 23% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 6% | 1% | 29% |
| 24 Oct 2014 | Johann Lamont resigns as Leader of the Scottish Labour Party | |||||||||
| 29 Sep–1 Oct 2014 | Panelbase/SNP | 1,049 | 34% | 32% | 18% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 2% | |
| 19 Sep 2014 | Scottish independence referendum | |||||||||
| 4–8 Jul 2014 | Survation/Daily Record | 786 | 38% | 33% | 17% | 5% | 5% | 2% | <1% | 5% |
| 25–26 Jun 2014 | YouGov | Unknown | 31% | 39% | 16% | 5% | 10% | 8% | ||
| 6–10 Jun 2014 | Survation/Daily Record | 773 | 40% | 32% | 15% | 5% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| 22 May | European Parliament Elections, 2014 | |||||||||
| 11–15 Apr 2014 | Survation/Sunday Post | 808 | 36% | 36% | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | Tie |
| 4–7 Apr 2014 | Survation/Daily Record | 803 | 40% | 34% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| 6–7 Mar 2014 | Survation/Daily Record | 850 | 38% | 36% | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 17–18 Feb 2014 | Survation/Daily Mail | 805 | 38% | 33% | 17% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 5% |
| 29–31 Jan 2014 | Survation/Daily Mail | 776 | 30% | 39% | 16% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 9% |
| 4–8 Oct 2013 | Lord Ashcroft | 737 | 31% | 40% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 9% |
| 22 Feb–9 May 2013 | Lord Ashcroft | 6,659 | 23% | 45% | 16% | 8% | 5% | 2% | <1% | 22% |
| 17–28 Oct 2012 | Lord Ashcroft | 703 | 39% | 33% | 17% | 6% | 7% | 6% | ||
| 17–20 Jul 2012 | YouGov/Fabian Society | 1,029 | 29% | 43% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 14% |
| 18–21 May 2012 | YouGov | Unknown | 35% | 40% | 14% | 5% | 6% | 5% | ||
| 3 May 2012 | Scottish Local Elections, 2012 | |||||||||
| 22–24 Feb 2012 | YouGov | 1,053 | 30% | 42% | 17% | 7% | 4% | 12% | ||
| 5 May 2011 | Scottish Parliament Election, 2011 | |||||||||
| 26–29 Apr 2011 | YouGov/Scotsman | 1,108 | 28% | 42% | 17% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 14% |
| 19–21 Apr 2011 | YouGov | Unknown | 30% | 43% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 13% | ||
| 13–15 Apr 2011 | YouGov | Unknown | 28% | 43% | 16% | 9% | 5% | 15% | ||
| 25–28 Mar 2011 | YouGov | Unknown | 26% | 46% | 17% | 6% | 5% | 20% | ||
| 18–20 Oct 2010 | YouGov | Unknown | 26% | 44% | 18% | 7% | 5% | 18% | ||
| 31 Aug–3 Sep 2010 | YouGov | Unknown | 29% | 39% | 16% | 11% | 5% | 10% | ||
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | – | 19.9% | 42.0% | 16.7% | 18.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 22.1% |
Wales
Graph of opinion polls conducted
| Date(s)
conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Plaid | Lab | Con | Lib Dem | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 May 2015 | General Election results | – | 12.1% | 36.9% | 27.2% | 6.5% | 13.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 9.7% | |
| 4–6 May 2015 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,202 | 13% | 39% | 25% | 8% | 12% | 2% | 2% | 14% | |
| 30 Apr 2015 | Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband broadcast on BBC One; Ask Nicola Sturgeon, Ask Leanne Wood and Ask Nigel Farage programmes also shown | ||||||||||
| 28–30 April 2015 | YouGov/Plaid Cymru | 1,146 | 13% | 39% | 26% | 6% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 13% | |
| 22 Apr 2015 | Six-way Wales Election Debate held on ITV | ||||||||||
| 16 Apr 2015 | Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One | ||||||||||
| 13–15 April 2015 | YouGov/ITV Wales, Cardiff University | 1,143 | 12% | 40% | 26% | 6% | 13% | 4% | <0.5% | 14% | |
| 2 Apr 2015 | Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV | ||||||||||
| 26–31 Mar 2015 | YouGov/The Sun | 1,035 | 9% | 40% | 27% | 6% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 13% | |
| 30 Mar 2015 | Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign | ||||||||||
| 24–27 Mar 2015 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,189 | 11% | 40% | 25% | 5% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 15% | |
| 26 Mar 2015 | First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4 | ||||||||||
| 5–9 Mar 2015 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,279 | 10% | 39% | 25% | 5% | 14% | 6% | 1% | 14% | |
| 19–21 Jan 2015 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,036 | 10% | 37% | 23% | 6% | 16% | 8% | 1% | 14% | |
| 8–13 Jan 2015 | ICM/BBC Wales | 1,004 | 12% | 38% | 21% | 7% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 17% | |
| 2–3 Dec 2014 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,131 | 11% | 36% | 23% | 5% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 13% | |
| 19–22 Sep 2014 | ICM/BBC Wales | 1,006 | 13% | 39% | 23% | 5% | 16% | 2% | 1% | 16% | |
| 8–11 Sep 2014 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,025 | 11% | 38% | 23% | 6% | 17% | 5% | 1% | 15% | |
| 26 Jun–1 Jul 2014 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,035 | 11% | 41% | 25% | 5% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 16% | |
| 22 May 2014 | European Parliament Elections, 2014 | ||||||||||
| 12–14 May 2014 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,092 | 11% | 43% | 22% | 7% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 21% | |
| 11–22 Apr 2014 | YouGov/Cardiff University | 1,027 | 11% | 45% | 24% | 7% | 10% | 1% | 2% | 21% | |
| 21-24 Feb 2014 | ICM/BBC Wales | 1,000 | 15% | 45% | 24% | 6% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 21% | |
| 10–12 Feb 2014 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,250 | 11% | 47% | 22% | 7% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 25% | |
| 2–4 Dec 2013 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,001 | 12% | 46% | 21% | 8% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 25% | |
| 18–22 Jul 2013 | YouGov | 1,012 | 9% | 48% | 23% | 8% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 25% | |
| 18–20 Feb 2013 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,007 | 10% | 51% | 22% | 9% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 29% | |
| 2–4 Jul 2012 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,000 | 10% | 54% | 23% | 4% | 9% | 31% | |||
| 3 May 2012 | Welsh Local Elections, 2012 | ||||||||||
| 12–16 Apr 2012 | YouGov | 1,039 | 12% | 50% | 23% | 7% | 9% | 27% | |||
| 30 Jan–1 Feb 2012 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,008 | 11% | 50% | 25% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 25% | |
| 5 May 2011 | Welsh Assembly Election, 2011 | ||||||||||
| 2–4 May 2011 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,010 | 10% | 50% | 24% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 25% | |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | – | 11.3% | 36.2% | 26.1% | 20.1% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 3.4% | 10% | |
Northern Ireland
| Date(s)
conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | DUP | SF | SDLP | UUP | Alliance | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 May 2015 | General Election Results (NI only) | – | 25.7% | 24.5% | 13.9% | 16.0% | 8.6% | 10.3% |
| 11–24 Sep 2014 | LucidTalk/Belfast Telegraph | 1,089 | 26% | 24% | 15% | 12% | 6% | 17% |
| 7 Mar 2013 | 2013 Mid Ulster by-election. | |||||||
| 30 Sep 2013–28 Dec 2013 | Northern Ireland Life & Times[4] | 1,280 | 22% | 20% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 5% |
| 1 Oct 2012–10 Jan 2013 | Northern Ireland Life & Times[5] | 1,204 | 27% | 19% | 21% | 16% | 13% | 3% |
| 9 Jun 2011 | 2011 Belfast West by-election. | |||||||
| 01 Oct 2010–18 Dec 2010 | Northern Ireland Life & Times[5] | 1,205 | 24% | 15% | 23% | 21% | 13% | 4% |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results (NI only) | – | 25% | 26% | 16% | 15% | 6% | 12% |
London
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | UKIP | Lib Dem | Green | Others | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 April–1 May 2015 | YouGov/Evening Standard | 1,313 | 33% | 46% | 8% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 13% | |
| 30 Apr 2015 | Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband broadcast on BBC One; Ask Nicola Sturgeon, Ask Leanne Wood and Ask Nigel Farage programmes also shown | |||||||||
| 20–22 April 2015 | YouGov/Evening Standard | 1,032 | 32% | 44% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 12% | |
| 16 Apr 2015 | Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One | |||||||||
| 2 Apr 2015 | Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV | |||||||||
| 30 Mar 2015 | Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign | |||||||||
| 26–30 Mar 2015 | YouGov/Evening Standard | 1,064 | 34% | 45% | 8% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 11% | |
| 20–26 Mar 2015 | ICM/The Guardian | 1,003 | 32% | 42% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 1% | 10% | |
| 26 Mar 2015 | First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4 | |||||||||
| 20–24 Mar 2015 | ComRes/ITV News | 1,004 | 32% | 46% | 9% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 14% | |
| 27 Feb–2 Mar 2015 | YouGov/Evening Standard | 1,011 | 32% | 44% | 10% | 7% | 5% | <0.5% | 12% | |
| 19–23 Feb 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,096 | 34% | 42% | 9% | 8% | 6% | <0.5% | 8% | |
| 19–21 Jan 2015 | YouGov/Evening Standard | 1,034 | 32% | 42% | 10% | 7% | 8% | <0.5% | 10% | |
| 15–18 Dec 2014 | YouGov/Evening Standard | 1,385 | 33% | 41% | 9% | 9% | 6% | <0.5% | 8% | |
| 8–13 Aug 2014 | YouGov/Evening Standard | 1,200 | 34% | 41% | 9% | 10% | 3% | <0.5% | 7% | |
| 21–24 Jul 2014 | YouGov/Evening Standard | 1,350 | 35% | 45% | 8% | 8% | 4% | <0.5% | 10% | |
| 17–19 Jun 2014 | YouGov/Evening Standard | 1,115 | 35% | 42% | 10% | 8% | 4% | <0.5% | 7% | |
| 6–8 May 2014 | YouGov/Evening Standard | 1,422 | 31% | 44% | 10% | 11% | 2% | <0.5% | 13% | |
| 29 Apr 2014 | Survation | 774 | 26% | 42% | 15% | 12% | 2% | <0.5% | 16% | |
| 7–9 Apr 2014 | YouGov/Evening Standard | 1,209 | 34% | 42% | 11% | 9% | 3% | <0.5% | 8% | |
| 8–10 Oct 2013 | YouGov/Evening Standard | 1,231 | 32% | 45% | 9% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 13% | |
| 20–25 Jun 2013 | YouGov/Evening Standard | 1,269 | 29% | 48% | 10% | 9% | 2% | 3% | 19% | |
| 24–30 Apr 2012 | Opinium | 736 | 33% | 43% | 6% | 10% | 7% | 2% | 10% | |
| 27–29 Apr 2012 | YouGov/Evening Standard | 1,231 | 31% | 47% | 8% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 16% | |
| 20–22 Apr 2012 | YouGov/Evening Standard | 1,138 | 31% | 50% | 6% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 19% | |
| 13–15 Apr 2012 | YouGov/Evening Standard | 1,060 | 33% | 50% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 17% | |
| 12–15 March 2012 | YouGov/Evening Standard | 1,226 | 34% | 46% | 5% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 12% | |
| 7–10 Feb 2012 | YouGov/Evening Standard | 1,106 | 35% | 47% | 5% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 12% | |
| 10–16 Jan 2012 | YouGov | 1,349 | 34% | 44% | 5% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 10% | |
| 7–9 Jun 2011 | YouGov | 1,215 | 32% | 51% | 3% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 19% | |
| 5–8 Oct 2010 | YouGov | 1,271 | 38% | 42% | 2% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 4% | |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | – | 34.5% | 36.6% | 1.7% | 22.1% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | |
Notes
- Final General Election 2015 prediction poll published 7 May 2015 with an additional 463 respondents added to the data published the previous day
- Preliminary prediction poll published 6 May 2015
References
- Lyons Lowe, Damian (8 May 2015). "Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory". Survation. Retrieved 8 May 2015.
- Lord Ashcroft adjusts for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the party they tend to support. The England figures are based on a table that does not adjust for don't knows/refusers.
- ICM adjust for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the major party they tend to support. Percentages for England are based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.
- The question asked was "Which of these political parties do you feel closest to?", not a voting intention question.
- "NI Life and Times Survey - 2012 : POLPART2". Retrieved 3 January 2015.
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