2000 Mexican general election

General elections were held in Mexico on Sunday, July 2, 2000.

2000 Mexican general election
July 2, 2000
Turnout63.97%
 
Nominee Vicente Fox Francisco Labastida Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas
Party PAN PRI PRD
Alliance Alliance for Change – Alliance for Mexico
Home state Guanajuato Sinaloa Michoacán
States carried 19 + D.F. 11 1
Popular vote 15,989,636 13,579,718 6,256,780
Percentage 42.5% 36.1% 16.6%
States won by the presidential candidates (blue for Fox, green for Labastida and yellow for Cárdenas)
President before election

Ernesto Zedillo
PRI

 Elected President

Vicente Fox
PAN

Voters went to the polls to elect:

The presidential elections were won by Vicente Fox of the Alliance for Change, who received 43.4% of the vote,[1] the first time the opposition had won an election since the Mexican Revolution. In the Congressional elections the Alliance for Change emerged as the largest faction in the Chamber of Deputies with 224 of the 500 seats, whilst the Institutional Revolutionary Party remained the largest faction in the Senate with 60 of the 128 seats in the Senate.[2] Voter turnout was between 63 and 64% in the elections.[3]

This historically significant election made Fox the first president elected from an opposition party since Francisco I. Madero in 1910, and the first one in 71 years to defeat, with 42 percent of the vote, the then-dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).

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Presidential election

Some isolated incidents of irregularities and problems were reported. For example, one irregularity in the southern state of Campeche involved the European Union electoral observer Rocco Buttiglione and could have created problems for President Ernesto Zedillo had the PRI candidate won. Overall, however, electoral observers identified little evidence that those incidents were centrally coordinated (as opposed to led by local PRI officials), and critics concluded that those irregularities which did occur did not materially alter the outcome of the presidential vote, which had been more definitive than expected.

Civic organizations fielded more than 80,000 trained electoral observers, foreign observers were invited to witness the process, and numerous "quick count" operations and exit polls (not all of them independent) validated the official vote tabulation. The largest exit poll was organized by the U.S. firm Penn, Schoen & Berland, financed by a hitherto obscure outfit in Dallas called Democracy Watch. It emerged later that Democracy Watch had effectively been created by Vicente Fox campaign insiders to help prevent the success of any expected election fraud.

Numerous electoral reforms implemented since 1989 aided in the opening of the Mexican political system, and since then opposition parties have made historic gains in elections at all levels. The chief electoral concerns shifted from outright fraud to campaign fairness issues and, between 1995 and 1996, the political parties negotiated constitutional amendments to address these issues. The legislation implemented included major points of consensus that had been worked out with the opposition parties. Under the new laws, public financing predominated over private contributions to political parties, procedures for auditing parties were tightened, and the authority and independence of the electoral institutions were strengthened. The court system was also given greatly expanded authority to hear civil rights cases on electoral matters brought by individuals or groups. In short, the extensive reform efforts of the 1990s "leveled the playing field" for the parties.

Opinion polls

PRI candidate Francisco Labastida led in nearly all the polls throughout the first months of the campaign, although in the final two months his lead grew smaller; on the other hand, PAN candidate Vicente Fox was at second place in most of the polls, but in May and June his percentage of supporters increased and he led in many of the final polls.

Given that the overwhelming majority of the polls failed to predict Fox's victory and instead had indicated that Labastida would win by comfortable margins, it has been asserted that many of those polled lied about their preferences, fearing that if they stated support for an opposition party, they would be stripped by the PRI of the government assistance programs they were receiving. Indeed, the Reforma newspaper, which had predicted a Labastida victory in all of the polls they published during the campaign, attributed their mistake to the so-called fear factor.[4]

Poll source Date Fox
PAN		 Labastida
PRI		 Cárdenas
PRD		 Others
 Sample
size		 Ref.
Mund Opinion November 1999 39% 43% 18% 0% N/A [5]
Indermec November 1999 44% 39% 16% 0% N/A
GEA November 1999 38% 41.8% 16.5% 3.7% 1200
Reforma November 1999 33.3% 53.1% 9.9% 3.7% 1542
El Universal November 1999 33.8% 46.2% 11.7% 8.3% 1537
CEO November 1999 37% 47% 11% 4% 1500
Pearson (PRI) December 1999 34% 47% 13% 6% 1647
El Universal December 1999 39.2% 47.1% 12.5% 1.2% 1475
Milenio December 1999 37.8% 42.2% 17.8% 2.2% 1006
CEPROSEPP January 2000 32% 51% 11% 6% 1510
Reforma January 2000 38.6% 48.2% 12.0% 1.2% 1544
GAUSCC (PAN) January 2000 39% 45% 14% 2% 20 866
Pearson (PRI) January 2000 36.7% 49.7% 11.9% 1.7% 1678
GAUSSC (PAN) January 2000 42.4% 43.5% 13.0% 1.1% 1500
Milenio February 2000 41.1% 42.2% 14.5% 2.2% 1200
CEPROSEPP February 2000 32.4% 45.5% 16.1% 6.0% 1346
GEA February 2000 44% 36% 18% 2% 1113
Technomgmt. February 2000 34.5% 45.3% 17.2% 3.0% 2697
El Universal February 2000 38.8% 41.8% 15.7% 3.7% 1438
Reforma February 2000 38.6% 47.0% 13.2% 1.2% 1510
Reforma February 2000 37.8% 50.0% 11.0% 1.2% 2397
Mund Opinion February 2000 35.7% 40.5% 22.6% 1.2% 1182
CEPROSEPP March 2000 31.8% 46.1% 17.0% 5.1% 1322
Pearson (PRI) March 2000 33.4% 51.6% 13.6% 1.5% 1127
Milenio March 2000 39.3% 41.6% 16.9% 2.2% 1200
El Universal March 2000 39.7% 45.0% 12.7% 2.6% 1438
Reforma March 2000 38.6% 47.0% 13.3% 1.2% 1533
GEA March 2000 43.3% 38.8% 16.5% 1.4% 1200
Technomgmt. March 2000 32.3% 47.9% 17.0% 2.8% N/A
CEPROSEPP April 2000 31.2% 45.7% 17.6% 5.5% N/A
GAUSSC April 2000 41.4% 46.0% 12.3% 0.3% 1500
Technomgmt. April 2000 32.7% 47.4% 17.7% 2.2% N/A
Reforma April 2000 42% 45% 12% 1% 1647
Quantum April 2000 36.9% 50.4% 10.0% 2.7% 1920
El Universal April 2000 39.2% 42.2% 14.0% 4.5% 1074
Reuters/Zogby April 2000 46.3% 41.6% 9.3% 2.8% 1062
Pearson (PRI) May 2000 39% 45% 12% 4% 1590
Technomgmt. May 2000 39.1% 45.5% 12.5% 2.9% 8000
Reforma May 2000 40% 42% 16% 2% 1547
GEA May 2000 43.6% 38.6% 16.4% 1.4% N/A
El Universal May 2000 42.2% 35.9% 16.2% 5.7% 1787
Milenio May 2000 36% 43% 17% 4% 2005
CEO May 2000 39.0% 42.7% 15.1% 3.2% 2450
Alduncin 12 June 2000 41% 35% 20% 4% 2095
Alduncin 12 June 2000 41% 35% 20% 4% 2095
CEO 17 June 2000 39% 43% 15% 3% 2423
ARCOP 18 June 2000 43% 38% 17% 3% 1400
Fishers 18 June 2000 36% 42% 19% 3% 2750
GEA 18 June 2000 39% 38% 19% 3% 2287
Mund/Dalla 18 June 2000 36% 37% 27% 0% 1362
Reforma 18 June 2000 39% 42% 16% 3% 1545
Reuters 18 June 2000 41% 44% 15% 1% 1330
CM Político 19 June 2000 38% 41% 18% 3% 1800
D. Watch 19 June 2000 41% 36% 20% 3% 1542
Pearson 19 June 2000 39% 43% 15% 3% 1309
Milenio/Nielsen 23 June 2000 36% 42% 16% 6% N/A [6]

Election results
Candidate Party Votes %
Vicente Fox QuesadaNational Action Party (Representing Alliance for Change)15,989,63642.52
Francisco Labastida OchoaInstitutional Revolutionary Party13,579,71836.11
Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas SolórzanoParty of the Democratic Revolution (Representing Alliance for Mexico)6,256,78016.64
Gilberto Rincón GallardoSocial Democracy592,3811.58
Manuel Camacho SolísParty of the Democratic Center206,5890.55
Porfirio Muñoz LedoAuthentic Party of the Mexican Revolution156,8960.42
Other candidates30,4610.1
Invalid/blank votes788,157–
Total37,601,618100
Source: Nohlen

Results by state

Based on the official results of the Federal Electoral Institute

State Fox Labastida Cárdenas Rincón Camacho Muñoz Write-in None
Aguascalientes202,335127,13426,2649,4672,2021,389836,291
Baja California429,194319,47777,34014,5623,4703,08050714,965
Baja California Sur60,83456,23045,2292,107460364172,804
Campeche104,498106,34735,0902,4851,4061,2475599,309
Chiapas288,204469,392272,1825,3404,6594,0631,05644,551
Chihuahua549,177460,93176,81011,5694,4873,16660921,350
Coahuila398,800311,48077,39310,3922,1111,8801,45412,464
Colima106,44581,09923,3133,1591,028542394,377
Distrito Federal1,928,0351,060,2271,146,131149,31236,38318,8432,00975,669
Durango211,361222,89250,5926,1441,5791,4698599,294
Guanajuato1,128,780517,815121,48918,24810,8008,4732,87349,039
Guerrero174,962402,091332,0916,1792,9133,00395420,180
Hidalgo282,864355,565136,86112,3195,0344,07875819,997
Jalisco1,392,535941,962163,26945,49417,56711,1103,28748,736
México2,239,7501,637,714961,876121,13740,73327,2033,41692,743
Michoacán419,188441,871543,80413,0587,4446,4042,06030,448
Morelos290,639193,861124,36812,5392,9163,01013612,296
Nayarit107,417173,47963,1213,0921,1751,0243517,043
Nuevo León760,093615,90796,63720,4487,4782,6581,51927,201
Oaxaca301,195486,496282,58711,0748,3727,3051,85139,616
Puebla732,435698,974208,68820,1708,6097,8491,14244,305
Querétaro290,977192,62239,62910,5853,7688,67017013,849
Quintana Roo132,38394,20250,4872,399916729705,216
San Luis Potosí393,997324,23472,59911,0733,3062,28740722,673
Sinaloa230,777621,32990,4887,2052,1891,6751,29015,920
Sonora447,496292,267114,5806,4261,6721,3259413,269
Tabasco174,840269,519213,9835,8172,5991,73265514,036
Tamaulipas521,486445,73791,4269,3873,2106,9321,15719,659
Tlaxcala123,880127,16382,0735,1852,5081,450536,639
Veracruz1,066,7191,008,933491,79125,47411,34310,95698558,630
Yucatán328,503321,39227,2144,2581,34498760213,127
Zacatecas169,837197,336117,3756,2772,9081,99343912,461
Total15,989,63613,579,7186,256,780592,381206,589156,89631,461788,157

Voter demographics
The 2000 presidential vote by demographic subgroup
Demographic subgroup Fox Labastida Cárdenas Other % of
total vote
Total vote 42 36 16 6 100
Gender
Men 47 32 20 1 52
Women 43 40 14 3 48
Age
18-24 50 32 17 1 18
25-29 47 34 16 3 16
30-34 49 34 15 2 15
35-39 47 37 12 4 13
40-45 41 35 20 4 11
46-50 44 37 18 1 8
51-54 46 40 13 1 6
55-59 32 43 24 1 5
60+ 35 42 22 1 8
Education
None 30 46 21 3 8
Primary 35 46 18 1 34
Secondary 49 34 15 2 22
Preparatory 53 28 16 3 21
University 60 22 15 3 15
Employment
Public sector 41 37 19 3 18
Private sector 53 31 15 1 26
Self-employed 42 36 19 3 24
Student 59 19 17 5 5
Housewife 41 43 15 1 25
Region
North 50 37 12 1 23
Center-West 48 37 12 3 18
Center 43 34 20 3 35
South 41 37 20 2 24

Source: Exit poll published by the Reforma newspaper.[7]

Congress of the Union

Senate
Party Constituency PR Seats +/-
Votes % Votes %
Alliance for Change14,208,97338.114,339,96338.260-17
Institutional Revolutionary Party13,699,79936.713,755,78736.751+17
Alliance for Mexico7,027,94418.97,027,99418.816-1
Social Democracy669,7251.8676,3881.80New
Democratic Center Party521,1781.4523,5691.41New
Authentic Party of the Mexican Revolution275,0510.7276,1090.70New
Non-registered candidates31,0790.130,8920.10–
Invalid/blank votes852,106–854,459–––
Total37,285,85510037,534,6411001280
Source: Nohlen

Chamber of Deputies
Party Constituency PR Seats +/-
Votes % Votes %
Alliance for Change14,212,47638.214,323,64938.2224+95
Institutional Revolutionary Party13,720,45336.913,800,30636.9208–31
Alliance for Mexico6,948,20418.76,990,14318.765–67
Social Democracy698,6831.9703,5321.90New
Democratic Center Party428,5771.2430,8121.20New
Authentic Party of the Mexican Revolution272,4250.7273,6150.70New
Other parties30,3800.130,4520.10–
Invalid/blank votes863,262–868,516–––
Total37,174,46010037,421,0251005000
Source: Nohlen

References
  1. Nohlen, D (2005) Elections in the Americas: A data handbook, Volume I, p475 ISBN 978-0-19-928357-6
  2. Nohlen, p470
  3. Nohlen, p455
  4. Kuschik, Murilo (September 2000). Las encuestas y la elección del año 2000. Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales. p. 8. Retrieved 2 September 2019.
  5. Kuschik, Murilo (September 2000). Las encuestas y la elección del año 2000. Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales. p. 8. Retrieved 2 September 2019.
  6. Aznarez, Juan Jesus (24 June 2000). "Fox y Labastida empatan en los sondeos a una semana de las elecciones". El País. Retrieved 3 September 2019.
  7. Klesner, Joseph L. (March 2001). "The End of Mexico's One-Party Regime". PS: Political Science and Politics. 34 (1): 110. JSTOR 1350318.
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