2015 Nepal blockade

Separate Nepali ethnic groups have demanded their own regions. However their demands overlap and Kathmandu is forced to play favourites:
Black hash marks represent demand for a Madhesi State
Blue region represents Limbuwan autonomy demand
Orange region represents Tharuhat autonomy demand

A root problem is that the demands of Madheshis, backed by India,[4] are in direct opposition to the demands of two other groups, which puts Kathmandu in a quandary. Two ethnic groups – the Tharu and the Kiranti – have been enforcing bandh (a general strike or blockade) and agitating for full autonomy from Kathmandu. Madheshis have had clashes with Tharu protesters in addition to government forces, yet all these groups accuse Kathmandu of ordering excessive use of force by the police.[5][6]

Political intrigue is a recurring theme of Nepal. Since the Nepalese royal massacre of 2001, the country broke out into civil war that only ended in 2006, the victors being UCPN-M power brokers who forced Parliament and King Gyanendra to integrate them; the king later was forced to resign. The two main leaders of UCPN-M are ex-Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai and party head Prachanda. Despite their once powerful posts and many disgruntled members having left the party with a few cadres after disputes and failures to get economic and political traction, the party never suffered from fallout as great as it has in 2015, when Baburam Bhattarai on 26 September severed ties with Prachanda and the UCPN-M amidst the Constitutional crisis and early days of the blockade, reducing the once formidable UCPN-M to an also-run political force despite its 80/600 parliamentary representation.[7] Bhattarai stated "chances of me joining an old or a cracked house is out of option".[8] The ruling Nepali Congress itself had been under intense pressure due to failure to act on quake relief and the blockade, this and the UCPN-M split paved the way for Khadga Prashad Oli of CPN-UML to become PM on 11 October.

On 20 September 2015, the long-stalled Constitution of Nepal was passed with 90% approval from the representatives in Nepal's Constituent Assembly (CA). 66 members of Nepal's 598-strong Constituent Assembly, belonging to these groups, abstained from voting in protest.[9] By 20 September, more than 40 people including 8 police officers had been killed in clashes between the protesters and the police. Not all constitution passage related protests, deaths, nor bandh (strike) were ordered by or took place among Madhesis or in the Madhesh; there are various unresolved issues touched off by the passage of the constitution related to the multitude of races, political interests and castes in the diverse and developing country.[10] Nevertheless, the fuel crisis itself has direct relation to the Madhesh as it is the transit point for the vast majority of imports, two ethnic groups in the border region with India – Tharus and Madhesi people- have also been protesting against human rights violations, alleging that the new constitution marginalized them. There were also bandhs (strikes) declared in the Terai region, even before the constitutional passage, curtailing Terai business but otherwise not affecting the rest of the country.[11][12]

On the day that the fuel blockade began, Indian Express newspaper reported that India had demanded specific changes to the new Nepali constitution. While the Indian government denied this claim,[13] the Indian Express reporter stood by his or her original report restating that "these amendments/changes were communicated by New Delhi to Kathmandu". [14] In a report from The Economic Times, a personnel from the Indian Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) "confirmed that at least till the third week of September, they had orders from above to intercept fuel shipments to Nepal".[15] Nepali social media took to immediate protest against the alleged Indian interference with the hashtag #BackOffIndia as well as street agitation.[9] When news of the blockage of shipments reached the government, Kathmandu sent additional military forces to the border. Many leaders of various parties claimed India had infiltrated the Madhesh with Indian protesters, and Madheshi leaders refuted the infiltration allegations, stating that the Madheshis should not be mistaken for Biharis or other Indians.[16]

Due to an open border between Nepal and India, citizens of both countries can move freely, work, and live across borders without passports. Nepalese citizens moving along the border had long been an issue straining Nepal-India relations. Madheshis share strong socio-cultural ties to the neighbouring Indian states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.[9] India had expressed concerns over the violent protests, and had asked Nepal to take Madhesi interests into consideration.[17] The government of Nepal and the Nepalese media portrayed Madhesi movements as subversively backed by Indian infiltrators, and as an assault on their sovereignty; furthermore, some Nepalis felt the crisis was ultimately an attempt to absorb Nepal into India in whole or in part, citing the case of Nepali-dominated Sikkim.[18]

Some critics have tied India's actions to political interest in the 2015 Bihar Legislative Assembly election. Justice Markandey Katju claimed that the blockade is "directly connected with the Bihar assembly elections".[19] Likewise, General Ashok K. Mehta accuses the Indian Government of prioritizing an election victory in Bihar over Indian-Nepalese relations.[20]

Landlocked Nepal, due to its Himalayan location and extremely basic and fragile infrastructure depends on India for almost all its import needs. In 1989, India had closed 19 of the 21 border crossings, after a dispute over renegotiation of lapsed trade and transit treaties between the two countries. Nepal's increasing cooperation with China, including its purchase of Chinese weaponry, was seen as a major factor behind this blockade.[21] Nevertheless, India had warned against Nepal breaking the fuel stranglehold of India during the premiership of Girija Prasad Koirala.[22]

"We are deeply concerned over the incidents of violence resulting in death and injury in regions of Nepal bordering India following the promulgation of Constitution yesterday. Our freight companies and transporters have also voiced complaints about the difficulties they are facing in movement within Nepal and their security concerns, due to the prevailing unrest.

We had repeatedly cautioned the political leadership of Nepal to take urgent steps to defuse the tension in these regions. This, if done in a timely manner, could have avoided these serious developments."

Immediately after the press release, all the border crossings in Nepal witnessed unusual stoppage of goods and transportation vehicles from India to Nepal, even though much of the border crossings, apart from the ones in Province 2 had not witnessed substantial border obstructions.

The blockade has caused the only international airport to deny foreign carriers fuel,[23] contributing to isolating the landlocked nation from the outside world at a time when the country is still reeling from ongoing landslides blocking border trade with China following the devastating 2015 Nepal earthquake. Meanwhile, none of the $4 billion of internationally donated quake relief funds to the Nepali government have been dispersed to survivors even after many months, causing anger among Nepalis and international agencies alike.[24] The Nepali government decided to stop providing fuel to private automobiles including public transport and taxis for few days at the beginning so as to distribute the fuel to government and prioritized sector.[25] Some 2,000 factories are shut down as of 1 October.[26] The Nepal Oil Corporation alleged and sued Indian Oil Corporation for not allowing the majority of trucks to enter Nepal.[27] The unofficial "Indian Blockade" forced Nepalese to ride bicycles and also carpooling.[28]

The Nepal oil corporation is the only state-owned company which imports and distributes petroleum in Nepal. It does not have enough facility to store petroleum for even over weeks use. So the public was angry for not getting petrol, diesel, cooking gas (LPG), kerosene from the state oil corporation although they stood in line for days. The government of Nepal had imposed a rule to provide fuel to the public as well as private transportation on the basis of odd and even number plate system. Although this system was imposed the taxi drivers and private vehicle owners faced huge problems to stand their vehicles in line for two-three days or more but still not getting required fuel. The oil black marketeers saw this as a big opportunity and started bringing fuel from the border points with India and selling it in Kathmandu and other places for threefold prices. For instance, before the Madhesi blockade, a price of a liter of petrol in Kathmandu was Rupees 104 whereas, after the blockade, the public was forced to buy petrol from the black marketeers paying Rupees 300 to 450 for a liter.[29]

The government of Nepal failed to ease this fuel crisis and could not bring petroleum from China on time although it signed an agreement to buy one third of Nepal's petroleum requirement from the northern neighbor.[30] This agreement was seen as a cornerstone for Nepal to end the full dependency on only one country for petroleum imports.[31] The common Nepalese were hopeful to get fuel from the northern neighbor. The other Nepal-China border point, Tatopani in Sindhupalchowk district is not functional after the Nepal earthquake 2015 because of serious damages and obstructions.[32] China had also donated 1.3 million liters of petrol to Nepal after the fuel crisis through the Kerung border point.[33]

The Nepali government spoke of airlifting fuel and essential supplies when the talk with the Indian side was not fruitful.[34] India was repeatedly saying to solve the issue with the Madheshi people because they are the ones who were blocking the border points and disrupting supplies. The Indian trucks cannot go to Nepal because of the insecurity as the Terai part of Nepal was facing strikes from the period before the Nepal's new constitution was declared. Some reports also came in Nepali media that the Madheshi protesters were sitting on the Indian land and throwing stones at Nepal. The government of Nepal was also unable to convey true message to the International communities about the problem in Nepal at a time when some Nepali scholars were asking the government to Internationalize the issue as India had moved back from the Nepal India friendship treaty and violated the various International trade, transit and commerce laws. While in Kathmandu, the government had asked for International help to solve the fuel crisis which was hitting the Nepalese life very hard.[35] Nepal government started selling firewood in Kathmandu because there were acute shortage of cooking gas (liquified petroleum gas) that households were buying electrical induction cookers.[36] As Nepal faces big energy problems and power cuts, using induction cookers would not be a permanent alternative to cooking gas.

The Government of India denied imposing a blockade, stating that the truck drivers coming from India were not entering Nepal due to safety concerns resulting from the violent protests. India's Ministry of External Affairs stated that the border obstructions were a result of "unrest, protests, and demonstrations on the Nepalese side, by sections of their population."[27] The Government of Nepal contested India's claim, stating that there were no major security concerns that would prevent the trucks from entering Nepal. Nepal's spokesperson Laxmi Prasad Dhakal argued that the Madheshi protests had been happening since past few months, and Indian trucks had been entering Nepal until 23 September without any problems.[27]

On 1 October, Indian minister Sushma Swaraj officially denied Nepal's accusations. India's spokesperson Vikas Swarup pointed out that India had sent 4,310 trucks to the border, where they had been stranded. He argued that from there onwards, it was Nepal's responsibility to ensure that the trucks entered Nepal safely.[37] On the other hand, it is reported that the vehicles weren't allowed to enter Nepal by the Indian side thus resulting in long queues of Nepalese trucks stranded for days Inside the Indian border. The Indian Oil Corporation reportedly refused to fill the Nepalese trucks following instructions from higher authorities.

On 6 October, the Madheshi-centric Nepal Sadbhawana Party criticized the Nepali media reports blaming the blockade on India. Its President Rajendra Mahato stated that the blockade had been done by the Madheshi people and that India had nothing to do with it.[38] The Indians alleged that the Maoists, who dominate the Nepali politics, were promoting a false propaganda against India.[39] An editorial in the Nepali Times has claimed the Indian blockade is no longer about the Madhes and the constitution, but rather that India also seems to be opposed to KP Oli replacing Sushil Koirala as prime minister, and has a whole host of demands on security and other issues that we haven’t even heard about.[40]

Nepal has lobbied the United Nations on the obstruction.[42]

On 28 October, the Nepal Oil Corporation and PetroChina signed an agreement to import fuel from China,[43] the first fuel agreement ever between the two nations.[44] China also pledged to donate 1,300,000 L (290,000 imp gal; 340,000 US gal) of fuel to Nepal. [44] Nepal is planning to import a third of its fuel from China.[45]

As issue of post-quake vulnerability became lost in the increasingly vocal information war between Kathmandu and New Delhi,[59] a major humanitarian crisis has erupted at a time when international agencies are stretched very thin due to El Nino related agricultural disasters as well as exploding conflict in Syria, Yemen, and their spawned refugee crises. UNICEF has followed with a warning echoing US embassy statements about the looming humanitarian disaster, citing 3 million children at risk of disease and death in Nepal alone.[60] On a separate note, while governments focus on immediate needs and politics, misanthropes take advantage of the situation, in particular Human trafficking; some 400 girls who have entered India from Nepal have gone missing.[61]