2020 Hamburg state election

The 2020 Hamburg state election was held on 23 February 2020 to elect the members of the 22nd Hamburg Parliament. The outgoing government was a coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and The Greens led by First Mayor Peter Tschentscher. The election was marked by a decline for the SPD and right-of-centre parties, while The Greens doubled their vote share and number of seats, becoming the second largest party.[2] The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) suffered their worst ever result in Hamburg and their worst state election result in 68 years.[3] The Left achieved a small upswing. Alternative for Germany (AfD) declined in vote share and seat count compared to a previous election for the first time in its history. The Free Democratic Party fell narrowly short of the 5% electoral threshold to win proportional seats, in total winning only one seat from a direct mandate.

2020 Hamburg state election
23 February 2020[1]
All 123 seats in the Hamburg Parliament
62 seats needed for a majority
Turnout4,054,861 (63.2%)
6.7 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Peter Tschentscher Katharina Fegebank Marcus Weinberg
Party SPD Green CDU
Last election 58 seats, 45.6% 15 seats, 12.3% 20 seats, 15.9%
Seats won 54 33 15
Seat change 4 18 5
Popular vote 1,591,098 980,361 452,372
Percentage 39.2% 24.2% 11.2%
Swing 6.4 pp 11.9 pp 4.7 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Cansu Özdemir Dirk Nockemann Anna-Elisabeth von Treuenfels-Frowein
Party Left AfD FDP
Last election 11 seats, 8.5% 8 seats, 6.1% 9 seats, 7.4%
Seats won 13 7 1
Seat change 2 1 8
Popular vote 368,471 214,596 201,162
Percentage 9.1% 5.3% 4.9%
Swing 0.6 pp 0.8 pp 2.5 pp
Mayor before election

Peter Tschentscher
SPD

 Elected Mayor

Peter Tschentscher
SPD

After the election, the SPD renewed its coalition with the Greens.[4] Peter Tschentscher was re-elected Mayor on 10 June.[5]

Issues and campaign

Federal

The Hamburg state election was overshadowed by the Thuringia government crisis,[6] the resignation of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer as federal CDU leader,[7] and a terrorist attack targeting immigrants in Hanau which took place four days before the election.

Local

In the wake of the Thuringia government crisis, approximately 20% of the FDP's election posters in Hamburg were defaced or destroyed. Greens leader Katharina Fegebank stated that such actions "harmed democracy".[8][9]

Electoral system

The elections were conducted under a list proportional system in the same manner as the prior election. 71 seats were awarded directly in the 17 multi-mandate constituencies (of between 3-5 seats each) via open constituency lists, and the remaining 50 via at-large open state lists (German: landesliste) based on percentage of the overall vote with a 5% electoral threshold.

Each voter had a total of ten votes: five constituency votes for the direct candidates in the constituency, and five at-large votes for candidates on the state lists (or for state lists in their entirety). The five votes could be amassed all on one person, party, or list (accumulation) or could be distributed/split between different candidates, parties, or lists as desired (panachage). Voting privileges were passively awarded, meaning anyone over the age of 18 meeting eligibility requirements was automatically enrolled.

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 21st Hamburg Parliament.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2015 result
Votes (%) Seats
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands		 Social democracy Peter Tschentscher 45.6%
58 / 121
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands		 Christian democracy Marcus Weinberg 15.9%
20 / 121
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen		 Green politics Katharina Fegebank 12.3%
15 / 121
Linke The Left
Die Linke		 Democratic socialism Cansu Özdemir 8.5%
11 / 121
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei		 Classical liberalism Anna-Elisabeth von Treuenfels-Frowein 7.4%
9 / 121
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland		 German nationalism
Right-wing populism		 Dirk Nockemann 6.1%
8 / 121

Opinion polling
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 SPD CDU Grüne Linke FDP AfD Others Lead
2020 state election 23 Feb 2020 – 39.2 11.2 24.2 9.1 4.9 5.3 6.1 15.0
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 19–20 Feb 2020 1,184 39 12 24 8.5 5 6 5.5 15
INSA 12–17 Feb 2020 1,006 38 13 23 8 5 7 6 15
Universität Hamburg 2 Jan–14 Feb 2020 1,004 34 12 32 7 6 5 5 2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 11–13 Feb 2020 1,128 37 13 25 8 4.5 7 5.5 12
Infratest dimap 10–12 Feb 2020 1,003 38 14 23 8 5 6 6 15
Infratest dimap 30 Jan–4 Feb 2020 1,000 34 14 27 8 5 7 5 7
Trend Research Hamburg 24–29 Jan 2020 672 33 14 24 10 7 7 5 9
Infratest dimap 16–21 Jan 2020 1,002 32 16 27 8 6 7 4 5
Infratest dimap 2–7 Jan 2020 1,000 29 15 29 9 7 7 4 Tie
Forsa 18 Dec 2019–2 Jan 2020 1,009 29 16 26 10 7 7 5 3
Trend Research Hamburg 27–31 Dec 2019 678 32 13 23 13 8 8 4 9
Civey 22 Nov–20 Dec 2019 2,041 30.4 13.6 24.1 13.7 7.4 7.5 3.3 6.3
Infratest dimap 11–16 Dec 2019 1,004 28 17 26 11 6 7 5 2
Trend Research Hamburg 5–10 Nov 2019 652 32 13 23 12 7 8 4 9
INSA 23 Oct–4 Nov 2019 1,020 25 17 26 12 8 8 4 1
Trend Research Hamburg 6–11 Sep 2019 618 28 14 28 11 6 9 4 Tie
2019 European election 26 May 2019 – 19.8 17.7 31.2 7.0 5.6 6.5 12.2 11.4
pmg – policy matters 6–16 May 2019 1,002 30 16 22 11 9 10 2 8
Universität Hamburg 6 Jan–2 Mar 2019 1,069 35 15 29 9 6 4 3 6
Infratest dimap 18–21 Feb 2019 1,005 31 17 22 10 8 8 4 9
Forsa 27 Dec 2018–3 Jan 2019 1,004 30 14 24 11 9 7 5 6
Forsa 19 Mar–4 Apr 2018 1,001 36 16 18 12 7 7 4 18
pmg – policy matters 23 Feb–2 Mar 2018 1,025 28 22 15 14 8 10 3 6
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 – 23.5 27.2 13.9 12.2 10.8 7.8 4.5 3.7
Universität Hamburg 8 Sep–17 Nov 2016 1,004 48 18 16 8 5 4 2 30
Infratest dimap 31 Mar–5 Apr 2016 1,000 39 18 15 11 6 8 3 21
Trend Research Hamburg 14–18 Jan 2016 759 37 14 13 10 8 13 5 23
2015 state election 15 Feb 2015 – 45.6 15.9 12.3 8.5 7.4 6.1 4.2 29.7

Election result
Results for the direct mandates.

At one polling booth in Langenhorn, the results for the FDP and Greens were accidentally reversed, meaning the preliminary results placed the FDP only 121 votes above the threshold. The mistake was corrected in the official count which took place over 24 hours later.[10] Exit polls suggested that AfD would miss the threshold while FDP would exceed it, leading to early press reports of an AfD defeat and exclusion of its politicians from post-election debates.[11]

Summary of the 23 February 2020 election results for the Hamburg Parliament

Party Votes % +/-pp Seats +/- Seats %
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 1,591,098 39.2 6.4 54 4 43.9
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) 980,361 24.2 11.9 33 18 26.8
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 452,372 11.2 3.7 15 5 12.2
The Left (Linke) 368,471 9.1 0.6 13 2 10.6
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 214,596 5.3 0.8 7 1 5.7
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 201,162 4.9 2.5 1 8 0.8
Die PARTEI (PARTEI) 56,775 1.4 0.5 0 ±0 0
Volt Germany (VOLT) 52,241 1.3 1.3 0 ±0 0
Others 137,785 3.4 0 ±0 0
Total 4,054,861 100.0 123 2
Voter turnout 63.2 6.7
Popular vote
SPD
 
 39.24%
B'90/GRÜNE
 
 24.18%
CDU
 
 11.16%
DIE LINKE
 
 9.09%
AfD
 
 5.29%
FDP
 
 4.96%
Other
 
 6.09%
Bürgerschaft seats
SPD
 
 43.90%
B'90/GRÜNE
 
 26.83%
CDU
 
 12.20%
DIE LINKE
 
 10.57%
AfD
 
 5.69%
FDP
 
 0.81%

Government formation

Mayor Tschentscher stated that exploratory talks with the Greens were "the first priority", but that "we will also - if the majorities are confirmed - approach the CDU and hold a conversation." Marcus Weinberg of the CDU stated he was "ready for talks" with the SPD. Lead candidate for the Greens Katharina Fegebank called for "More red-green, with strong greens in the government." Cansu Özdemir of The Left stated her party wished to remain a strong opposition force.[12]

The SPD and Greens came to a coalition agreement at the end of May. The SPD took 7 ministries and the Greens 4, a net gain of one for the Greens.[4] The vote for Mayor took place on 10 June, and Tschentscher was re-elected Mayor with 87 votes in favour, 34 against, and 2 abstentions. The new cabinet was also approved with 83 votes in favour, 38 against, and 2 abstentions.[5]

See also

References
  1. "Hamburger: Am 23. Februar 2020 neue Bürgerschaft wählen". Retrieved 2019-05-05.
  2. "Merkel 'slumps in Hamburg as Greens surge'". BBC News. 2020-02-23. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
  3. Reuters (2020-02-23). "Merkel's CDU suffers worst ever result in Hamburg elections". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
  4. "Regierungbildung in Hamburg: Grüne benennen Senatoren". NDR.de. 31 May 2020.
  5. "Bürgerschaft wählt Tschentscher und bestätigt Senat". Ndr.de. 10 June 2020.
  6. "Germany's FDP to seek dissolution of Thuringia state assembly: source". Reuters. 2020-02-06. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
  7. "Merkel's crisis-hit CDU launches leadership race". Yahoo News. 2020-02-24. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
  8. "Hass-Welle gegen FDP 800 Zerstörte Plakate und Parteiaustritte in Hamburg (in German)". Hamburger Morgenpost. 2020-02-10. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
  9. "Bereits 800 FDP-Wahlplakate in Hamburg zerstört (in German)". Welt. 2020-02-24. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
  10. "Hamburg-Wahl 2020: Katastrophe für FDP besiegelt - Merz spricht von „Desaster" für CDU (in German)". Merkur.de. 2020-02-24. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
  11. "Hamburger Bürgerschaftswahl: Darum lagen die Prognosen für die AfD so daneben (in German)". Welt. 2020-02-24. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
  12. "Was sagen Hamburger Politiker zum Wahlausgang?". NDR.de. 23 February 2020.
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