2021 Berlin state election
The 2021 Berlin state election is expected to be held on 26 September 2021 to elect the 19th Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.[1][2] The current government is coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), The Left, and The Greens led by Governing Mayor Michael Müller. Müller will not run for re-election as Mayor, and federal minister Franziska Giffey will instead lead the SPD in the election.[3]
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All 130 seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (plus overhang and leveling seats) 66+ seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Election date
The last election took place on 18 September 2016. The Abgeordnetenhaus has a term of five years, so the next regular elections must take place no later than September 2021.[2] Federal Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer has recommended that the election take place on the same date as the 2021 German federal election, which is expected to be held on 26 September 2021.[1]
Electoral system
The Abgeordnetenhaus is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 78 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 52 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation, distributed in each of Berlin's twelve boroughs. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Abgeordnetenhaus is 130 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Abgeordnetenhaus; parties that fall below this threshold are excluded from the Abgeordnetenhaus. However, parties which win at least one single-member constituency are exempt from the threshold and will be allocated seats proportionally, even if they fall below 5%.[2]
Background
In the previous election held on 13 March 2016, the SPD remained the largest party with 21.6% of the vote, a loss of 5.7 percentage points. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) was the second largest party with 17.6%, a loss of 5.7 points. The Left overtook The Greens to become the third largest party on 15.6%, while The Greens won 15.2%. Alternative for Germany (AfD) contested their first election in Berlin, winning 14.2%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) re-entered the Abgeordnetenhaus with 6.7%.
The SPD had led a coalition with the CDU since 2011, but this government lost its majority in the election. The SPD subsequently formed a coalition with The Left and The Greens.
Parties
The table below lists parties currently represented in the 18th Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Name | Ideology | Lead candidate |
Leader(s) | 2016 result | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||
SPD | Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands |
Social democracy | Franziska Giffey | Franziska Giffey Raed Saleh |
21.6% | 38 / 160 | |
CDU | Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands |
Christian democracy | Kai Wegner | Kai Wegner | 17.6% | 31 / 160 | |
Linke | The Left Die Linke |
Democratic socialism | Klaus Lederer | Katina Schubert | 15.6% | 27 / 160 | |
Grüne | Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen |
Green politics | Bettina Jarasch | Nina Stahr Werner Graf |
15.2% | 27 / 160 | |
AfD | Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland |
German nationalism Right-wing populism |
Nicolaus Fest | 14.2% | 25 / 160 | ||
FDP | Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei |
Classical liberalism | Christoph Meyer | 6.7% | 12 / 160 |
Campaign
Lead candidates
On 5 October 2020, the Greens nominated Bettina Jarasch, spokeswoman for integration and refugees, as their lead candidate for the election. She previously served as chairwoman of the state party from 2011 to 2016.[4] She was formally elected as lead candidate on 12 December.[5]
On 9 October, was state CDU leader Kai Wegner was selected as his party's lead candidate.[6]
Prior to the election, incumbent mayor Michael Müller voiced his desire to move into federal politics rather than seek another term. On 30 November 2020, the state party executive nominated Federal Minister for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth Franziska Giffey as lead candidate for the election. She was simultaneously elected co-leader of the Berlin branch of the party alongside parliamentary group leader Raed Saleh.[6][3]
On 8 December, The Left nominated incumbent Deputy Mayor and Senator for Culture Klaus Lederer as its lead candidate for the election. Lederer is noted as one of the most popular politicians in Berlin, achieving consistently high approval ratings.[7]
Opinion polling
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
SPD | CDU | Linke | Grüne | AfD | FDP | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
INSA | 11–18 Dec 2020 | 1,002 | 18 | 22 | 16 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
INSA | 28 Sep–5 Oct 2020 | 1,007 | 18 | 21 | 16 | 20 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 1 |
Infratest dimap | 15–19 Sep 2020 | 1,001 | 15 | 22 | 15 | 26 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
INSA | 7–13 Jul 2020 | 1,012 | 16 | 21 | 18 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
Infratest dimap | 22–25 Apr 2020 | 1,002 | 20 | 23 | 14 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
Forsa | 29 Jan–6 Feb 2020 | 1,011 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 25 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 8 |
INSA | 10–18 Dec 2019 | 1,006 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 23 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
Forsa | 12–19 Dec 2019 | 1,005 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 22 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
Forsa | 21–28 Nov 2019 | 1,006 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 25 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 8 |
Infratest dimap | 11–16 Nov 2019 | 1,003 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 23 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
Forsa | 22–31 Oct 2019 | 1,002 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 25 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 7 |
Forsa | 17–26 Sep 2019 | 1,002 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 24 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 7 |
INSA | 10–16 Sep 2019 | 1,018 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 24 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Forsa | 20–29 Aug 2019 | 1,003 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 24 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 7 |
Forsa | 17–25 Jul 2019 | 1,001 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 25 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 7 |
Forsa | 17–27 Jun 2019 | 1,004 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 25 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
Forsa | 20–27 May 2019 | 1,006 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Infratest dimap | 30 Apr–3 May 2019 | 1,000 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 23 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
Forsa | 16–25 Apr 2019 | 1,005 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 25 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
INSA | 5–8 Apr 2019 | 1,030 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 12 | 9 | 6 | Tie |
INSA | 19–28 Mar 2019 | 1,003 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 25 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
Forsa | 20–28 Feb 2019 | 1,001 | 17 | 20 | 18 | 22 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
Forsa | 22–31 Jan 2019 | 1,002 | 16 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 1 |
Forsa | 11–19 Dec 2018 | 1,009 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 23 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 5 |
INSA | 10–17 Dec 2018 | 1,007 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 21 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 3 |
Forsa | 19–29 Nov 2018 | 1,003 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 23 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
Infratest dimap | 14–17 Nov 2018 | 1,002 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 24 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
INSA | 23 Oct–2 Nov 2018 | 1,019 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 5 |
Forsa | October 2018 | 1,005 | 15 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 3 |
Forsa | 19–27 Sep 2018 | 1,005 | 16 | 17 | 22 | 18 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
Forsa | 21–30 Aug 2018 | 1,004 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 2 |
Forsa | 16–26 Jul 2018 | 1,009 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 17 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 2 |
INSA | 9–16 Jul 2018 | 1,012 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 14 | 7 | 9 | Tie |
Forsa | 20–28 Jun 2018 | 1,009 | 19 | 18 | 21 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 2 |
Forsa | 22–31 May 2018 | 1,004 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 1 |
Infratest dimap | 9–12 May 2018 | 1,000 | 18 | 21 | 22 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 1 |
Forsa | 17–26 Apr 2018 | 1,001 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 7 | Tie |
INSA | 3–9 Apr 2018 | 1,039 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 5 | Tie |
Forsa | 19–28 Mar 2018 | 1,003 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 6 | Tie |
Forsa | 12–22 Feb 2018 | 1,006 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
Forsa | 15–25 Jan 2018 | 1,008 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 1 |
Forsa | 12–21 Dec 2017 | 1,002 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 8 | Tie |
Forsa | 13–23 Nov 2017 | 1,002 | 18 | 21 | 18 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 3 |
Forsa | 17–26 Oct 2017 | 1,011 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 1 |
Forsa | 26 Sep–5 Oct 2017 | 1,002 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 9 | Tie |
Infratest dimap | 6–9 Sep 2017 | 1,000 | 21 | 23 | 19 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 2 |
Forsa | 22–30 Aug 2017 | 1,005 | 19 | 21 | 17 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 2 |
Forsa | 18–27 Jul 2017 | 1,007 | 20 | 22 | 18 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 2 |
Forsa | 22–29 Jun 2017 | 1,003 | 21 | 22 | 17 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 1 |
Forsa | 16–24 May 2017 | 1,001 | 22 | 23 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 1 |
Infratest dimap | 17–20 May 2017 | 1,000 | 22 | 24 | 17 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 2 |
Forsa | 19–27 Apr 2017 | 1,002 | 24 | 20 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 4 |
Forsa | 20–30 Mar 2017 | 1,005 | 25 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 5 |
Forsa | 13–23 Mar 2017 | 1,004 | 25 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
Forsa | 16–26 Jan 2017 | 1,008 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 9 | Tie |
Forsa | 12–23 Dec 2016 | 1,003 | 20 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 8 | Tie |
Forsa | 14–24 Nov 2017 | 1,001 | 19 | 20 | 16 | 17 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 1 |
Infratest dimap | 21–23 Nov 2016 | 1,003 | 21 | 19 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 2 |
Forsa | 19–27 Oct 2016 | 1,002 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 2 |
2016 state election | 18 Sep 2016 | – | 21.6 | 17.6 | 15.6 | 15.2 | 14.2 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.0 |
Notes
- Klaud Lederer was elected on the Left list in the 2016 election, but resigned from the Abgeordnetenhaus in January 2017.
- Leader, not lead candidate.
- Leader, not lead candidate.
References
- "The date for the Abgeordnetenhaus election in 2021 is approaching". Government of Berlin. 20 November 2020.
- "Wahlen". Berlin Ministry for the Interior and Sport.
- "SPD state executive nominates Franziska Giffey as the top candidate". Der Spiegel. 30 November 2020.
- "Bettina Jarasch is to become the Green top candidate". T-Online. 5 October 2020.
- "Berlin Greens choose Jarasch as the top candidate". Rundfunk Berlin-Brandenburg. 12 December 2020.
- "Kai Wegner wants to be mayoral candidate of the CDU in Berlin". Der Spiegel. 9 October 2020.
- "Left nominates Senator for Culture Klaus Lederer as lead candidate". Der Tagesspiegel. 8 December 2020.