Missouri's 4th congressional district

Missouri's 4th congressional district consists of west central Missouri. The district is predominantly rural and relatively conservative; George W. Bush defeated John Kerry 64% to 35% in the 2004 election and John McCain defeated Barack Obama 61% to 38% in the 2008 election. The district is currently represented by Vicky Hartzler, a Republican. She was first elected in the 2010 election, defeating 34-year Democratic incumbent Ike Skelton. It stretches from Columbia to the southern suburbs of Kansas City, including a sliver of Kansas City itself.

Missouri's 4th congressional district
Missouri's 4th congressional district since January 3, 2013
Representative	Vicky Hartzler R–Harrisonville
Population (2019)	775,664
Median household income	$53,237[1]
Cook PVI	R+17[2]

This district had historically been a Democratic Party stronghold. Antipathy to the Republican Party had its origins in the American Civil War and the infamous General Order 11. The Union Army ordered evacuation of the county in an attempt to reduce support for and the power of bushwhacker guerrillas. After the Civil War, there was disfranchisement of white males (mostly Democrats) who had been active for the Confederacy until they took loyalty oaths, or until 1870. The area was filled with conflict between Missouri's Radicals, who joined the Republicans, and Conservatives, who were Democrats. By 1880 former secessionists dominated Missouri's congressional delegation and state legislature.

Gradually this area developed a character similar to Yellow Dog Democrat districts in the South. Until 2010, only one Republican had been elected here since the Great Depression, and only for one term. However, several demographic trends have converged to erode the Democratic base in this district. First, as the New York Times election maps show, the predominantly rural counties lining the Missouri River have sharply trended Republican between the 2000 Senate election and the 2006 election, following trends across the South.[3]

Secondly, population losses in Kansas City resulted in the 4th gradually losing much of its share of heavily Democratic Jackson County to the Kansas City-based 5th district. As late as 1973, it included the eastern portion of Kansas City itself, and until 1983, the district stretched as far as Independence on Kansas City's eastern border. To compensate for this, large portions of heavily Republican Southwest Missouri were reassigned from the neighboring 7th district.[4] The result of these trends resulted in a dramatic collapse of Democratic support in the district. Al Gore, John Kerry, and Barack Obama won less than 40% of the vote here. It ultimately presaged Skelton's defeat by Hartzler in 2010. Since Skelton's defeat, no Democrat has managed even 40 percent of the vote.