Opinion polling for the 2010 Australian federal election
This article provides a list of federal opinion polls that were conducted between the 2007 election and 2010 election.
JWS poll of 28,000
A JWS Research "mega-poll", published by Fairfax, polled an Australian record 22,000 voters in 54 marginal seats and a further 6,000 in safe seats late in the campaign. It revealed a national two-party preferred vote for Labor of 51.6 percent. Losses in Queensland and New South Wales were offset by the gains of Dunkley, McEwen (both 57 percent), and Cowper and Boothby (both 54 percent), with a total of 79 Labor, 68 coalition, 3 independent.[1][2]
Newspoll
Newspoll federal polling, published in The Australian, consists of voting intention, better prime minister and leader satisfaction-dissatisfaction ratings, and is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas nationwide, Friday to Sunday, usually each fortnight. Sampling sizes consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ± 3 percentage points.
Voting intention
(<) – since July 2010, Newspoll has not provided a separate Liberal and National primary vote, therefore from 23–25 July 2010 the Liberal column displays the coalition primary vote.
| Political parties | Two-party-preferred | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | Lib | Nat | Grn | Oth | ALP | Lib/Nat | ||||
| 17–19 Aug 2010 | 36.2% | 43.4% | < | 13.9% | 6.5% | 50.2% | 49.8% | |||
| 13–15 Aug 2010 | 38% | 41% | < | 14% | 7% | 52% | 48% | |||
| 6–8 Aug 2010 | 38% | 42% | < | 13% | 7% | 52% | 48% | |||
| 30 Jul – 1 Aug 2010 | 37% | 44% | < | 12% | 7% | 50% | 50% | |||
| 23–25 Jul 2010 | 40% | 42% | < | 12% | 6% | 52% | 48% | |||
| 16–18 Jul 2010 | 42% | 34% | 4% | 12% | 8% | 55% | 45% | |||
| 25–27 Jun 2010 | 42% | 37% | 3% | 10% | 8% | 53% | 47% | |||
| 18–20 Jun 2010 | 35% | 36% | 4% | 15% | 10% | 52% | 48% | |||
| 28–30 May 2010 | 35% | 38% | 3% | 16% | 8% | 51% | 49% | |||
| 14–16 May 2010 | 37% | 40% | 3% | 12% | 8% | 50% | 50% | |||
| 30 Apr-2 May 2010 | 35% | 38% | 5% | 10% | 12% | 49% | 51% | |||
| 16–18 Apr 2010 | 43% | 37% | 3% | 10% | 7% | 54% | 46% | |||
| 26–28 Mar 2010 | 43% | 35% | 3% | 12% | 7% | 56% | 44% | |||
| 12–14 Mar 2010 | 39% | 37% | 4% | 11% | 9% | 52% | 48% | |||
| 26–28 Feb 2010 | 40% | 37% | 4% | 9% | 10% | 52% | 48% | |||
| 12–14 Feb 2010 | 39% | 36% | 4% | 12% | 9% | 53% | 47% | |||
| 29–31 Jan 2010 | 40% | 37% | 4% | 12% | 7% | 52% | 48% | |||
| 15–17 Jan 2010 | 40% | 34% | 4% | 12% | 10% | 54% | 46% | |||
| 4–6 Dec 2009 | 43% | 34% | 4% | 11% | 8% | 56% | 44% | |||
| 27–29 Nov 2009 | 43% | 30% | 5% | 12% | 10% | 57% | 43% | |||
| 13–15 Nov 2009 | 43% | 33% | 4% | 11% | 9% | 56% | 44% | |||
| 30 Oct – 1 Nov 2009 | 41% | 36% | 5% | 10% | 8% | 52% | 48% | |||
| 16–18 Oct 2009 | 48% | 30% | 4% | 10% | 8% | 59% | 41% | |||
| 28 Sep – 1 Oct 2009 | 46% | 31% | 4% | 10% | 9% | 58% | 42% | |||
| 18–20 Sep 2009 | 43% | 33% | 5% | 11% | 8% | 55% | 45% | |||
| 4–6 Sep 2009 | 44% | 35% | 4% | 10% | 7% | 55% | 45% | |||
| 21–23 Aug 2009 | 44% | 34% | 4% | 9% | 9% | 55% | 45% | |||
| 7–9 Aug 2009 | 45% | 33% | 4% | 10% | 8% | 57% | 43% | |||
| 24–26 Jul 2009 | 46% | 34% | 4% | 9% | 7% | 57% | 43% | |||
| 10–12 Jul 2009 | 43% | 34% | 5% | 11% | 7% | 55% | 45% | |||
| 26–28 Jun 2009 | 44% | 32% | 5% | 10% | 9% | 56% | 44% | |||
| 12–14 Jun 2009 | 41% | 36% | 4% | 11% | 8% | 53% | 47% | |||
| 29–31 May 2009 | 43% | 35% | 3% | 10% | 9% | 55% | 45% | |||
| 15–17 May 2009 | 46% | 34% | 3% | 9% | 8% | 56% | 44% | |||
| 1–3 May 2009 | 42% | 35% | 3% | 11% | 9% | 55% | 45% | |||
| 17–19 Apr 2009 | 47% | 33% | 4% | 9% | 7% | 58% | 42% | |||
| 3–5 Apr 2009 | 47% | 32% | 4% | 9% | 8% | 58% | 42% | |||
| 20–22 Mar 2009 | 45% | 32% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 56% | 44% | |||
| 7–9 Mar 2009 | 44% | 32% | 4% | 10% | 10% | 56% | 44% | |||
| 20–22 Feb 2009 | 47% | 33% | 3% | 9% | 8% | 58% | 42% | |||
| 6–8 Feb 2009 | 48% | 32% | 4% | 8% | 8% | 58% | 42% | |||
| 16–18 Jan 2009 | 43% | 35% | 4% | 10% | 8% | 54% | 46% | |||
| 5–7 Dec 2008 | 48% | 32% | 3% | 10% | 7% | 59% | 41% | |||
| 21–23 Nov 2008 | 42% | 33% | 5% | 11% | 9% | 55% | 45% | |||
| 7–9 Nov 2008 | 44% | 35% | 3% | 9% | 9% | 55% | 45% | |||
| 24–26 Oct 2008 | 44% | 36% | 3% | 9% | 8% | 54% | 46% | |||
| 10–12 Oct 2008 | 41% | 34% | 4% | 13% | 8% | 55% | 45% | |||
| 19–21 Sep 2008 | 42% | 34% | 4% | 10% | 10% | 55% | 45% | |||
| 5–7 Sep 2008 | 44% | 34% | 3% | 11% | 8% | 56% | 44% | |||
| 22–24 Aug 2008 | 45% | 34% | 4% | 8% | 9% | 56% | 44% | |||
| 8–10 Aug 2008 | 47% | 33% | 5% | 9% | 6% | 57% | 43% | |||
| 25–27 Jul 2008 | 47% | 33% | 4% | 10% | 6% | 57% | 43% | |||
| 11–13 Jul 2008 | 43% | 33% | 5% | 11% | 8% | 55% | 45% | |||
| 27–29 Jun 2008 | 44% | 34% | 5% | 10% | 7% | 55% | 45% | |||
| 13–15 Jun 2008 | 46% | 29% | 4% | 12% | 9% | 59% | 41% | |||
| 30 May – 1 Jun 2008 | 46% | 33% | 4% | 10% | 7% | 57% | 43% | |||
| 16–18 May 2008 | 47% | 34% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 57% | 43% | |||
| 2–4 May 2008 | 47% | 33% | 4% | 9% | 7% | 57% | 43% | |||
| 18–20 Apr 2008 | 51% | 30% | 4% | 9% | 6% | 61% | 39% | |||
| 4–6 Apr 2008 | 48% | 32% | 3% | 10% | 7% | 59% | 41% | |||
| 14–16 Mar 2008 | 47% | 31% | 4% | 11% | 7% | 59% | 41% | |||
| 29 Feb – 2 Mar 2008 | 51% | 28% | 3% | 10% | 8% | 63% | 37% | |||
| 15–17 Feb 2008 | 46% | 33% | 3% | 10% | 8% | 57% | 43% | |||
| 18–20 Jan 2008 | 46% | 32% | 3% | 12% | 7% | 58% | 42% | |||
| 2007 Election | 43.4% | 36.6% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 52.7% | 47.3% | |||
| 20–22 Nov 2007 | 44% | 39% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 52% | 48% | |||
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. | ||||||||||
Leader ratings
| Date | Labor Gillard |
Liberal Abbott |
|---|---|---|
| 17–19 Aug 2010 | 50% | 37% |
| 13–15 Aug 2010 | 50% | 35% |
| 6–8 Aug 2010 | 49% | 34% |
| 30 Jul – 1 Aug 2010 | 50% | 35% |
| 23–25 Jul 2010 | 50% | 34% |
| 16–18 Jul 2010 | 57% | 27% |
| 25–27 Jun 2010 | 53% | 29% |
| Rudd | Abbott | |
| 18–20 Jun 2010 | 46% | 37% |
| 28–30 May 2010 | 49% | 33% |
| 14–16 May 2010 | 49% | 33% |
| 30 Apr – 2 May 2010 | 50% | 32% |
| 16–18 Apr 2010 | 56% | 29% |
| 26–28 Mar 2010 | 59% | 27% |
| 12–14 Mar 2010 | 55% | 30% |
| 26–28 Feb 2010 | 55% | 30% |
| 12–14 Feb 2010 | 55% | 27% |
| 29–31 Jan 2010 | 58% | 26% |
| 15–17 Jan 2010 | 57% | 25% |
| 4–6 Dec 2009 | 60% | 23% |
| Rudd | Turnbull | |
| 27–29 Nov 2009 | 65% | 14% |
| 13–15 Nov 2009 | 63% | 22% |
| 30 Oct-1 Nov 2009 | 63% | 19% |
| 16–18 Oct 2009 | 65% | 19% |
| 28 Sep-1 Oct 2009 | 67% | 18% |
| 18–20 Sep 2009 | 65% | 17% |
| 4–6 Sep 2009 | 67% | 19% |
| 21–23 Aug 2009 | 66% | 19% |
| 7–9 Aug 2009 | 65% | 17% |
| 24–26 Jul 2009 | 66% | 16% |
| 10–12 Jul 2009 | 64% | 19% |
| 26–28 Jun 2009 | 65% | 18% |
| 12–14 Jun 2009 | 57% | 25% |
| 29–31 May 2009 | 57% | 24% |
| 15–17 May 2009 | 58% | 24% |
| 1–3 May 2009 | 64% | 19% |
| 17–19 Apr 2009 | 67% | 19% |
| 3–5 Apr 2009 | 67% | 18% |
| 20–22 Mar 2009 | 65% | 20% |
| 7–9 Mar 2009 | 61% | 21% |
| 20–22 Feb 2009 | 64% | 20% |
| 6–8 Feb 2009 | 62% | 20% |
| 16–18 Jan 2009 | 60% | 22% |
| 5–7 Dec 2008 | 66% | 19% |
| 21–23 Nov 2008 | 63% | 21% |
| 7–9 Nov 2008 | 62% | 22% |
| 24–26 Oct 2008 | 59% | 25% |
| 10–12 Oct 2008 | 54% | 26% |
| 19–21 Sep 2008 | 54% | 24% |
| Rudd | Nelson | |
| 5–7 Sep 2008 | 62% | 16% |
| 22–24 Aug 2008 | 65% | 14% |
| 8–10 Aug 2008 | 68% | 12% |
| 25–27 Jul 2008 | 66% | 14% |
| 11–13 Jul 2008 | 65% | 14% |
| 27–29 Jun 2008 | 64% | 15% |
| 13–15 Jun 2008 | 68% | 13% |
| 30 May – 1 Jun 2008 | 66% | 17% |
| 16–18 May 2008 | 70% | 12% |
| 2–4 May 2008 | 72% | 9% |
| 18–20 Apr 2008 | 71% | 10% |
| 4–6 Apr 2008 | 73% | 9% |
| 14–16 Mar 2008 | 70% | 10% |
| 29 Feb – 2 Mar 2008 | 73% | 7% |
| 15–17 Feb 2008 | 70% | 9% |
| 18–20 Jan 2008 | 68% | 11% |
| 30 Nov – 2 Dec 2007 | 61% | 14% |
| Rudd | Howard | |
| 20–22 Nov 2007 | 47% | 44% |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^Remainder were "uncommitted". | ||
| Gillard | Abbott | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied |
| 17–19 Aug 2010 | 44% | 43% | 42% | 50% |
| 13–15 Aug 2010 | 44% | 38% | 43% | 46% |
| 6–8 Aug 2010 | 43% | 41% | 41% | 49% |
| 30 Jul – 1 Aug 2010 | 42% | 40% | 44% | 46% |
| 23–25 Jul 2010 | 41% | 37% | 40% | 46% |
| 16–18 Jul 2010 | 48% | 29% | 36% | 51% |
| 25–27 Jun 2010 | N/A (new) | N/A (new) | 42% | 41% |
| Rudd | Abbott | |||
| 18–20 Jun 2010 | 36% | 55% | 38% | 49% |
| 28–30 May 2010 | 36% | 54% | 37% | 49% |
| 14–16 May 2010 | 39% | 51% | 42% | 45% |
| 30 Apr – 2 May 2010 | 39% | 50% | 45% | 43% |
| 16–18 Apr 2010 | 50% | 41% | 46% | 40% |
| 26–28 Mar 2010 | 51% | 39% | 44% | 43% |
| 12–14 Mar 2010 | 48% | 41% | 47% | 38% |
| 26–28 Feb 2010 | 51% | 40% | 48% | 38% |
| 12–14 Feb 2010 | 50% | 40% | 44% | 37% |
| 29–31 Jan 2010 | 50% | 38% | 41% | 39% |
| 15–17 Jan 2010 | 52% | 34% | 40% | 35% |
| 4–6 Dec 2009 | 58% | 32% | N/A (new) | N/A (new) |
| Rudd | Turnbull | |||
| 27–29 Nov 2009 | 56% | 34% | 36% | 50% |
| 13–15 Nov 2009 | 56% | 34% | 34% | 50% |
| 30 Oct – 1 Nov 2009 | 59% | 32% | 32% | 51% |
| 16–18 Oct 2009 | 63% | 28% | 32% | 54% |
| 28 Sep – 1 Oct 2009 | 67% | 21% | 33% | 48% |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^Remainder were "uncommitted". | ||||
Roy Morgan
The Roy Morgan poll consists of two different sampling. There is a face to face interview and a phone interview to sample voting intention, which is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas nationwide.
| Political parties | Two-party-preferred | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | Lib | Nat | Grn | Oth | ALP | Lib/Nat | ||||
| 7–8 Aug 2010 | 43% | 33.5% | 3.5% | 15.5% | 2% | 57.5% | 42.5% | |||
| 31 July – 1 Aug 2010 | 44% | 39% | 2% | 10% | 4% | 53% | 47% | |||
| 24–25 July 2010 | 43.5% | 35% | 2% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 55.5% | 44.5% | |||
| 17–18 July 2010 | 44.5% | 35% | 4.5% | 10.5% | 4% | 56% | 44% | |||
| Polling conducted by Roy Morgan. | ||||||||||
References
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