Opinion polling for the 2014 Ukrainian parliamentary election

In the run up to the 2014 Ukrainian parliamentary election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Ukraine. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 28 October 2012, to the day the next election was held, on 26 October 2014.

Party vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The percentages that overcome the 5% election threshold[1] are displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is bolded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date Polling firm PoR Fatherland UDAR Svoboda CPU Poroshenko Bloc Radical CP SU SR PF[lower-alpha 1] Others Lead
12–21 Oct Gorshenin Institute [lower-alpha 2] 10.4 [lower-alpha 3] 3 2.8 24.2 7.4 5.4 4 5.3 7.9 7.1[lower-alpha 4] 13.8
9–18 Oct KIIS, Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation [lower-alpha 2] 4.7 [lower-alpha 3] 2 2.8 20.5 8.6 3.3 3.75 5.8 6.8 9.75[lower-alpha 5] 11.9
1–8 Oct Rating [lower-alpha 2] 6.9 [lower-alpha 3] ~4 4.5 33.5 12.8 4.6 7.8 5.4 8.9 ~11.6[lower-alpha 6] 20.7
24 Sep – 5 Oct GfK Ukraine 8.7 29.9 7.6 7.3 7.0 21.2
19–22 Sep Active Group [lower-alpha 2] 6.3 [lower-alpha 3] 4 2.9 40.8 11.7 8.2 4.7 2.0 6.6 12.8 29.1
15–21 Sep All-Ukrainian Sociological Service[lower-alpha 7] [lower-alpha 2] 11.7 [lower-alpha 3] 9.4 2.4 40.5 12.5 6.6 4.7 3.2 6.6 2.4 28
12–21 Sep KIIS, Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation [lower-alpha 2] 7.8 4.3 4.7 4.5 39.5 10.4 6.9 5.2 2.6 5.8 8.2 29.1
5–12 Sep UISPP (NAPS) 2.0 7.9 4.6 4.6 4.2 31.5 12.7 6.6 6.3 3.0 8.1 8.7 18.8
5–10 Sep SOCIS 1.9 8.1 [lower-alpha 3] 4.5 2.9 45.7 13.7 8.1 4.4 2.0 5.6 3.1 32.0
23 Aug – 2 Sep KIIS 3.8 6.1 [lower-alpha 3] 4.4 4.6 37.1 13.1 9.7 7.8 2.9 6.4 2.3 24.0
2014 parliamentary election campaign
14–25 Aug GfK Ukraine 2 13[lower-alpha 8] 6 4 3 16 14 7 6 1 -[lower-alpha 9] 2 2
16–23 Jul KIIS 2.7 17.4 11.5 6.9 3.9 11.1 22.2 11.5 5.3 3.3 - 4.2 4.8
28 Jun – 10 Jul Rating 3.8 16.6[lower-alpha 10] 8.7 4.8 4.4 27.8 11.5 5.3 4.0 1.0 - 7.6 11.2
2014 presidential election
8–18 May Democratic Initiative Foundation 3[lower-alpha 11] 10.4 6.8 3.1 5.2 22.4 4.5 NP[lower-alpha 2] 4.2 1.2 - 4.3[lower-alpha 12] 12
8–13 May Rating 9[lower-alpha 13] 17.4 13.1 6.6 6.3 26.6 7.2 6.8 – 0.8 - 6.2 9.2
25–29 Apr Razumkov Centre 11.6[lower-alpha 13] 20.3 12.2 5.2 6.5 31.1 5.7 – – - - 7.4 10.8
14–26 Mar International Republican Institute[lower-alpha 7][lower-alpha 14] 9.5 25.5 19 8 6.5 17.5 – – – - - 16 6.5
14–19 Mar SOCIS, KIIS, Rating, Razumkov Centre 13.6 22.2 16.4 5.2 6.9 21.6 5.7 – – - - 8.5 0.6
1–6 Mar Social Monitoring Centre[lower-alpha 7] 16.6 21.7 19.8 6.5 7.9 13.7 4.4 – – - - 9.5 0.9
24 Feb – 4 Mar SOCIS 12.9 22.7 22.3 6.5 7.1 18.9 3.7 – – - - 5.9 0.4
28 Feb – 3 Mar KIIS[lower-alpha 7] 16.2 24 25.4 7.1 10.8 4.6 5.4 – – - - 6.7 1.4
2014 Ukrainian revolution
24 Jan – 1 Feb SOCIS 29.2 21.4 23.4 5.6 5.8 9.8 1.1 – – - - 3.5 5.8
17–26 Jan SOCIS 29.2 20.2 23.8 6.7 7.6 9.4 0.7 – – - - 2.3 5.4
2014 calendar year
23–27 Dec R&B Group[lower-alpha 7] 36.6 22.1 21.8 9.4 7.1 – – – – - - 3.1 14.5
7–17 Dec Rating[lower-alpha 7] 28.1 23.6 22.1 7.8 7.6 4.9 1.0 – – - - 4.7 4.5
30 Sep – 8 Oct Razumkov Centre[lower-alpha 7] 27.7 27.9 21 7 9.3 – 0.8 – – - - 6.2 0.2
26 Sep – 6 Oct Rating 27.0 26 21 9 10 – – – – - - 7.0 1.0
15–25 Sep R&B Group[lower-alpha 7] 32.9 27.9 19.9 7.9 9.1 – – – – - - 2.5 5.0
2013 calendar year
28 October 2012 2012 election results 30 25.6 14 10.5 13.2 – 1.08 – – - - 6.9 4.4
Notes:
  1. A new party led by Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Oleksandr Turchynov that was formed after several people left Fatherland on 21 August 2014 (see People's Front).
  2. In this poll this party was either not polled as an independent party, or its results were categorised in its "Others"-section.
  3. In this poll UDAR and Yuri Lutsenko were polled along with the Bloc of Petro Poroshenko.
  4. In this poll 19% of respondents who intend to vote had not decided whom to vote for and 3.5% were unable to answer the question.
  5. In this poll 32% of respondents who intend to vote had not decided whom to vote for.
  6. In this poll, Opposition Bloc received 5.1%, thus overcoming the threshold required to enter the Rada.
  7. This survey shows its poll results without disregarding those who are undecided or said they will abstain from voting (either physically or by voting blank). To obtain results comparable to other surveys and the official election results, the result shown in this table will be that obtained, with a simple rule of three, from disregarding undecided and/or abstaining voters from the totals offered in the survey.
  8. The party would gain this result if Arseniy Yatsenyuk would be on its party list
  9. The possible results for a possible (new) party of Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Oleksandr Turchynov were not polled
  10. In this poll Front for Change, which is part of the Fatherland coalition, was polled independently and received 3.4% of decided votes.
  11. For the results of Strong Ukraine see SU section in this table.
  12. In this poll 23.1% of respondents had not decided whom to vote for and 11.8% had stated that they would not take part in the election.
  13. Including Strong Ukraine.
  14. Some opinion polls round their data so that in the end up showing a .0 or a .5 value. This practise is maintained for these polls when disregarding undecided and/or abstaining voters from the totals so as to avoid different interpretations of the same value.

References
  1. (in Ukrainian) Poll: Council to pass seven parties, Ukrayinska Pravda (25 July 2014)
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