Opinion polling for the 2018 Mexican general election

Opinion polling was carried out prior to the 2018 Mexican general election.

The 2018 Mexican election features nine registered political parties, including the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), National Action Party (PAN), Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), and the newly formed National Regeneration Movement (Morena).

Coalition backgrounds

Todos por México

PRI, which held the presidency from 1929 to 2000 and is currently in power under President Peña Nieto, is primarily a center-right party. It will be contesting the elections in a coalition alongside the Ecological Green Party of Mexico and the New Alliance Party (Mexico) under the coalition "Todos por México" ("Everyone for Mexico").

Por México al Frente

PAN is a center-right, Christian democracy[1] party which held the presidency in 2 sexenios from 2000-2012.

PRD grew out of the PRI in 1986 as the leftists who created the Corriente Democrática (Democratic Current) within PRI split off. It came quite close to claiming the presidency in 2006. Surprisingly, the PRD decided to form a coalition with the right-wing PAN, and they will contest the elections alongside Citizens' Movement in a coalition called "Por México al Frente" ("For Mexico, to the Front").[2][3][4][5]

Juntos Haremos Historia

MORENA, created in 2014 by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, affectionately called AMLO, is a left-leaning party which split from the PRD.[6] It will contest the elections as a coalition with the Labor Party (PT) and the Social Encounter Party (PES), called "Juntos Haremos Historia" ("Together we'll make history").

By coalitions

Pollster Date
Other None Not mentioned
Mitofsky July 2017 21.7% 16.7% 15.9% 5.5% 3.0% 37.2%
Mitofsky August 2017 21.2% 16.4% 14.8% 4% 3.9% 39.7%
Parametría[7] September 2017 32% 23% 15% 14% 16%
Reforma[8] September 2017 24% 31% 28% 8%
México Elige[9] October 2017 22.5% 36.1% 21.8% 11.4% 8.2%
El Financiero[10] November 2017 18% 24% 22% 21% 15%
El Economista[11] December 2017 23.1% 22.6% 21.4% 7.4% 0.6% 24.9%
Parametría[12] January 2018 32% 42% 26% 12% 18%
Arias Consultores[13] January 2018 18.1% 50.1% 15.5% 6.5% 9.8%
SABA[14] Feb 4-12, 2018 12.3% 38.5% 10.3% 11.3% 29%
Revista 32[15] Feb 15-16, 2018 18.1% 46.2% 18.0% 5.8% 11.8%
Revista 32[16] Mar 19-23, 2018 15.9% 44.6% 17.8% 6.6% 15.1%
Parametría[17] Mar 23-28, 2018 25% 36% 20% 7% 5% 5% 2%
Revista 32[18] April 23-25, 2018 18.1% 46.9% 13.6% 4.1% 17.3%

    By candidates (January–June 2018)

    Historical trend of voting intentions for the candidates for the Mexican presidency in 2018.
    Agency Date Obrador Anaya Meade Zavala Rodríguez Other/None
    Parametría[19] January 31% 19% 20% 10% 2% 19%
    SDP Noticias[20] Jan 7-9 38.1% 17.7% 26.1% 7.9% 2.9% 7.3%
    Mitofsky[21] January 23.6% 20.4% 18.2% 10%
    Focus Asesores[22][23] January 47% 11% 11% 5% 2% 28%
    Arias Consultores[24] Jan 23-25 56.2% 14.3% 16.3% 6.5% 2.5% 4.1%
    El Universal[25] Jan 19-25 32% 26% 16% 4% 2% 4.1%
    El Financiero[26] Jan 27-31 38% 27% 22% 7% 3% 3%
    Parametría[27] Jan 25-Feb 2 34% 23% 18% 7% 2% 16%
    Mendoza Blanco[28] Feb 2-4 30% 26% 16% 3% 2% 23%
    SDP Noticias[29] Feb 2-6 38.4% 19.5% 25.7% 7.2% 2.6% 6.8%
    Mitofksy[30] Feb 9-11 27.1% 22.3% 18.0%
    Reforma[31] Feb 8-11 33% 25% 14% 4% 2% 22%
    SABA[32] Feb 4-12 38.3% 12.5% 10.3% 8.0% 1.9% 29%
    Parámetro[33] Feb 9-11 30.5% 23.8% 23.3% 3.9% 2.0% 16.5%
    Fox News[34] Feb 9-11 40% 31% 20% 9%
    Revista 32[35] Feb 15-16 48.2% 16.3% 17.8% 4.2% 2.5% 10.9%
    Massive Caller[36] February 30.55% 24.78% 15.4% 7.23% 2% 20.04%
    El Pais[37] March 37.8% 29.2% 23.8% 5.7% 2.6%
    Parametría[38] Feb 24-Mar 1 35% 21% 16% 10% 5% 13%
    Bloomberg[39] March 8 42.2% 27.4% 20.6% 4% 1.6%
    Indemerc[40] March 8-10 44.1% 15.1% 10.9% 8.2% 2% 19.7%
    El Financiero[41] March 9-14 42% 23% 24% 7% 2% 2%
    Arias Consultores[42] March 19-23 47.8% 14.6% 18.1% 6.2% 13.2%
    Parametría[43] March 23-28 38% 20% 16% 13%
    Gii 360[44] March 30-April 3 43% 19% 13% 7% 18%
    Berumen y Asociados[45] April 3–5 42% 31.1% 21.9% 5%
    SDP Noticias[46] April 11–14 41.9% 19.7% 22.7% 9% 2.5%
    Reforma[47] April 12–15 48% 26% 18% 5% 3%
    Bloomberg[48] April 15 47.8% 26.6% 17.9% 5.1%
    SDP Noticias[49] April 25–28 41.4% 24.7% 22.2% 4.8% 3.1% 3.8%
    Revista 32[50] April 23–25 50.9% 17.8% 13.5% 2.2% 2.8% 13.8%
    La Silla Rota[51] April 25-28 45% 29% 18% 5% 3%
    Reforma[52] April 26-30 48% 30% 17% 3% 2%
    Varela y Asociados[53] April 28-May 4 47.5% 33.1% 16.2% 1.7% 1.4%
    El Financiero[54] April 26-May 2 46% 26% 20% 5% 3%
    Ipsos[55] May 11-15 43% 24% 16% 2% 15%
    SDP Noticias[56] May 18-19 42.4% 25.8% 24.2% 0.6% 3.3% 3.7%
    Eje Central[57] May 21-22 49% 26% 21% 4%
    Reforma[58] May 24-27 52% 26% 19% 4%
    Parametría[59] May 23-29 54% 24% 17% 3% 2%
    Varela y Asociados[60] May 30-June 4 50.6% 29.5% 17.6% 2.2%
    BGC[61] May 31-June 4 47% 29% 21% 3%
    De Las Heras Demotecnia[62] June 10-13 50% 25% 19% 5% 1%
    Arias Consultores[63] June 13-15 62% 19.8% 13.7% 3.3%
    Reforma[64] June 20-24 51% 27% 19% 3%
    BGC[65] June 22-25 49% 26% 21% 4%
    El Financiero[66] June 15-23 54% 21% 22% 3%
    Presidential election July 1 53.19% 22.28% 16.41% 0.06% 5.23%

    By candidates (April–December 2017)

    Pollsters Date Obrador Zavala Chong Mancera Rodríguez Anaya Ávila Valle Nuño Meade Other None Not mentioned
    El Financiero April 2017 29% 32% 27% 8% 4%
    El Universal April 2017 33% 27% 13% 6% 4%
    32% 16% 6% 20%
    32% 26% 6% 13%
    GEA-ISA June 2017 18% 6% 4% 2% 7% 5% 4%
    Reforma July 2017 31% 26% 15% 7% 1% 15% 5%
    30% 26% 14% 6% 5% 1% 14% 4%
    30% 27% 14% 9% 1% 14% 5%
    32% 17% 8% 17% 1% 20% 5%
    33% 17% 16% 8% 1% 19% 6%
    El Financiero July 2017 30% 28% 24% 10% 8%
    Mitofsky August 2017 25.9% 19.7% 14.8% 4.4% 4.6%
    24.9% 15.4% 5.2% 3.8% 20.5%
    26.3% 15.7% 4.5% 4.9% 19.8%
    25.9% 18.7% 5.1% 5% 13.6%
    26.2% 19.3% 5% 4.5% 12.8%
    25.6% 4.9% 5.2% 20.1% 13.1%
    México Elige[9] October 2017 36.7% 14.7% 19.6% 5.3% 2.2%
    Reforma November 2017 31% 8% 2% 19% 17% 1% 10% 12%
    GCE[67][68] December 2017 27.8% 9.7% 6.3% 4.2% 9.2% 21.5% 0.3% 7.5% 13.5%
    Massive Caller[69] December 2017 27.2% 9% 9% 18.1% 20.4% 4.3% 18.2%

    By political parties

    Pollster Date
    PRI
    PAN
    PRD
    MORENA
    PT
    PVEM
    MC
    NA
    PES
    Other No-one Not mentioned
    Parametría August 2015 29% 23% 9% 21% 8% 5% 2% 3%
    GEA-ISA March 2016 33% 16% 7% 7% 4% 17% 18%
    Mitofsky March 2016 21.5% 16.4% 10.8% 11.7% 0.6% 1.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.5% 4.3% 14% 16.7%
    Mitofsky May 2016 22.3% 18.6% 8.7% 12.1% 0.8% 1.2% 1.9% 0.7% 0.9% 4.6% 28.2%
    GEA-ISA June 2016 28% 19% 5% 11% 6% 11% 21%
    El Financiero June 2016 29% 28% 8% 19% 1% 3% 2% 3% 1% 6%
    Mitofsky July 2016 19.6 20% 8.1% 12.2% 1.1% 1.3% 1.9% 1% 1.1% 2.8% 30.9%
    Reforma August 2016 22% 27% 6% 18% 5% 3% 11% 8%
    GEA-ISA September 2016 22% 23% 8% 9% 7% 15% 15%
    Parametría September 2016 27% 30% 10% 21% 2% 5% 1% 2% 2% 3%
    Mitofsky September 2016 19.5% 20.2% 7.8% 12.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% 0.9% 1% 3.3% 31.2%
    El Financiero November 2016 28% 29% 11% 18% 5%
    Reforma December 2016 22% 27% 5% 22% 3% 5% 11% 5%
    Massive Caller January 2017 12.8% 20.48% 5.5% 21.68% 1.6% 8.5% 5.2% 23.9%
    Reforma January 2017 17% 24% 10% 27% 2% 4% 10% 6%
    El Financiero February 2017 22% 25% 9% 25% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% 6%
    Mitofsky February 2017 13% 18.8% 5.1% 15.9% 0.8% 1.4% 1.7% 1.1% 0.7% 3.0% 38.5%
    México Elige February 2017 12.4% 21.0% 1.2% 36.9% 0.2% 0.4% 3% 0.5% 0.6% 14.5%
    GEA-ISA March 2017 19% 20% 7% 15% 5% 17% 18%
    El Financiero April 2017 28% 29% 10% 21% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 4%
    Excelsior April 2017 19% 21% 8% 26% 2% 24%
    El Universal April 2017 13% 27% 6% 33% 4%
    El Universal April 2017 13% 23% 6% 24% 3% 4% 4% 4% 2% 17%
    Parametría[12] January 2018 25% 24% 5% 30% 12% 18%
    SDP Noticias[29] Feb 2-6, 2018 20.6% 13.6% 2.8% 36.0% 1.1% 2.7% 3.1% 2.4% 1.3% 11.2% 5.4%
    SABA[70] Feb 4-12 9.4% 9.9% 1.7% 30.4% 0.4% 0.8% 1.6% 0.1% 8.4% 0.6% 15.7% 16.8%
    Parametría[17] Mar 23-28 15% 15% 5% 29% 3% 2% 3% 3% 1% 6% 1% 2% 15%
    Gii 360[71] March 30-April 3, 2018 12% 14% 2% 34% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 6% 26%

    References

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