Opinion polling for the November 2015 Turkish general election

In the leadup to the November 2015 general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. These polls only include Turkish voters nationwide and do not take into account Turkish expatriates voting abroad.

The results tend to vary widely (see opinion polls in Turkey for further information). Opposition parties tend to regard such polls as unreliable and have presented legislation to Parliament tightening restrictions on how opinion polls conduct their research. After the previous election in June 2015, the polling company ORC issued a written statement apologising for the inaccuracies in their pre-election polls. KONDA, another polling company, made an apology for similar reasons after their predictions varied widely with the actual result after the 2014 presidential election.

Polling accuracy

The following table shows the most accurate polling companies based on the last opinion polls conducted by each company before the June 2015 vote (held on 7 June 2015), taking into account the domestic-only vote shares won in the election.

Party Actual vote
7 June 2015
Most accurate pollster
Pollster Poll date Predicted vote Error margin
AKP40.7ANAR27 May40.5 0.2
CHP25.1MAK18–26 May24.9 0.2
ORC30 May – 1 June25.3 0.2
MHP16.5Gezici2 June16.5 0.0
HDP13.0Konda30–31 May12.6 0.4
Overall most accurateANAR27 May 0.9

Controversies

According to media reports, Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) government has attempted to suppress polling companies who publish polls predicting that the AKP will lose seats in the election.

Gezici Research and Polling Company have had some of their pollsters arrested in February and September 2015, after predicting that the AKP will lose power in the next election.[1]

Vote share polling

Graphical summary

Opinion polling since the June general election

Poll results

Date Pollster Sample AKP CHP MHP HDP Others Lead
1 NovElection results
Domestic vote only
46,555,26749.325.612.010.62.523.7
24–29 OctAndy-Ar[2]2,40043.727.114.013.02.216.6
24–25 OctKonda[3][4]3,57441.727.914.213.82.313.8
24–25 OctA&G[5]4,53647.225.313.512.21.821.9
24–25 OctGezici[6]4,86443.026.114.912.23.816.9
22–24 OctMetropoll[7]2,57643.325.914.813.42.617.4
21–24 OctORC[8]2,65043.327.414.012.23.115.9
22 Oct
The first of a series of pre-election restrictions come into force, banning the publication of opinion polls
17–21 OctKurd-Tek[9]2,59239.128.114.414.24.211.0
16–20 OctAKAM[10]24,54040.528.214.314.22.812.3
16–20 OctBetimar[11]2,00044.325.513.613.03.618.8
13–19 OctKonsensus[12]2,00243.028.613.111.93.414.4
17–18 OctKonda[3][4]?41.528.014.712.73.1
12–17 OctGezici[13][14]4,86441.327.015.612.53.614.3
12–17 OctMAK[15]43.527.813.612.13.015.7
12–16 OctArgetus[16]4,47243.126.215.112.63.016.9
10–16 OctPerspektif[17]1,25542.327.614.712.82.614.7
10–15 OctDenge[18]43.425.913.713.63.417.5
8–15 OctSonar[19]3,00040.527.315.213.13.913.2
10 Oct
Twin bombings target a peace rally in Ankara
5–9 OctSamer[20]4,14441.426.915.413.92.414.5
4–7 OctMetroPoll[21]2,52642.526.316.313.01.916.2
3–6 OctAndy-Ar[22]1,76442.627.115.212.13.015.5
3–4 OctKonda[3][4]?41.029.214.812.22.8
3–4 OctGezici[23][24]4,86040.827.615.813.62.213.2
28 Sep – 1 OctTÜSİAR[25]3,04143.026.414.612.14.016.6
26–27 SepGezici[26]4,86039.828.217.312.32.411.6
17–24 SepLRC[26]2,42538.926.017.912.34.912.9
23 SepAKAM[27][28]1,21438.927.714.514.64.311.2
19–23 SepMAK[29]5,50043.726.714.111.54.117.0
22 Sep
The two HDP ministers in the interim election government resign and are replaced by independents
19–21 SepAda[30]3,00044.727.612.911.83.017.1
18 Sep
Deputy Prime Minister and MHP Ankara MP Tuğrul Türkeş defects to the AKP
12–15 SepORC[31][32]2,76044.027.813.411.03.816.2
2–15 SepKURD-TEK[33][34]5,34838.526.717.514.62.811.8
12–13 SepGezici[35]5,00039.328.116.813.52.311.2
5–13 SepKonsensus[36]1,50043.327.613.812.62.715.7
27 Aug – 13 SepANAR-Denge-GENAR-Pollmark[37]157,90744.225.414.012.53.918.8
12 Sep
Ahmet Davutoğlu is re-elected as AKP leader unopposed during the party's 5th Ordinary Congress
5–12 SepSonar[38]2,50038.228.018.213.71.910.2
5–6 SepKonda[3][4][39]?41.724.816.412.34.8
2–5 SepMetroPoll[40]2,54041.427.315.313.03.214.1
3 SepVaryans[41]15,00043.926.214.112.33.517.7
2 SepKamuAR[42]5,24942.326.018.711.91.216.3
28 Aug
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu forms Turkey's first ever interim election government
22–25 AugORC[43]2,45043.727.514.311.23.316.2
24 Aug
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan calls a snap general election scheduled for 1 November 2015
24 AugAKAM[44]1,62439.728.512.614.84.711.2
22–23 AugGezici[45]4,86038.927.816.313.53.511.1
19–23 AugArgetus[46]2,96042.625.515.412.54.017.1
21 AugMetroPoll[47]2,52041.725.515.714.72.416.2
20 AugCHP[48]38.828.714.613.84.110.1
18 Aug
AKP leader and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu returns the mandate to form a government to the
President after last-ditch coalition talks with the MHP break down
18 AugGezici[49]39.226.416.214.14.112.8
13 Aug
Coalition talks between the AKP and the CHP break down
13 AugAKP[50]43.825.515.412.52.818.3
8–11 AugAndy-Ar[51]1,50442.827.015.912.81.515.8
8–9 AugKonda[3][4]?43.625.514.712.83.4
7–9 AugORC[52]1,58044.126.815.610.72.817.3
4–8 AugMAK[53]5,50044.725.315.610.73.719.4
24 Jul – 4 AugSONAR[54]3,50042.925.217.010.35.617.2
27 JulAKAM[55]1,41239.927.513.814.54.412.4
21 Jul
İstanbul MP İhsan Özkes resigns from the CHP
20 Jul
A suicide bombing in Suruç kills 32 people and results in military operations against the
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)
11–15 JulORC[56]3,20043.527.015.510.93.116.5
4–5 JulGezici[57]4,86040.126.114.714.24.914.0
29 JunAndy-Ar[58]1,55642.827.315.411.72.815.5
24 JunMetroPoll[59]2,48341.625.116.212.94.216.5
8 JunIPSOS[60]1,75045.025.014.012.03.020.0
7 JunJune 2015 general election
Domestic vote only
45,121,77340.725.116.513.04.715.6
12 Jun 2011June 2011 general election
Domestic vote only
42,813,89649.826.013.011.223.8

Seat predictions

Date Pollster Sample AKP CHP MHP HDP Majority
22–24 OctMetroPoll[7]2,576
269 / 550
134 / 550
67 / 550
80 / 550
Hung
17–21 OctKurd-Tek[9]2,592
251 / 550
149 / 550
66 / 550
84 / 550
Hung
16–20 OctAKAM[10]24,540
254 / 550
140 / 550
69 / 550
87 / 550
Hung
16–20 OctBetimar[11]2,000
278 / 550
132 / 550
61 / 550
79 / 550
6
17–18 OctGezici[13][14]4,864
262 / 550
137 / 550
74 / 550
77 / 550
Hung
3–4 OctGezici[24]4,860
256 / 550
141 / 550
73 / 550
80 / 550
Hung
26–27 SepGezici[61]4,860
246 / 550
140 / 550
87 / 550
77 / 550
Hung
23 SepAKAM[62]1,214
243 / 550
149 / 550
72 / 550
86 / 550
Hung
27 Aug – 13 SepANAR-Denge-GENAR-Pollmark[63]157,907
276 / 550
129 / 550
65 / 550
80 / 550
2
24 AugAKAM[44]1,624
250 / 550
144 / 550
68 / 550
88 / 550
Hung
22–23 AugGezici[45]4,860
240 / 550
142 / 550
85 / 550
83 / 550
Hung
21 AugMetroPoll[47]2,520
259 / 550
133 / 550
74 / 550
84 / 550
Hung
20 AugCHP[48]
238 / 550
149 / 550
76 / 550
86 / 550
Hung
27 JulAKAM[55]1,412
254 / 550
147 / 550
63 / 550
86 / 550
Hung
7 JunJune 2015 general election
258 / 550
132 / 550
80 / 550
80 / 550
Hung
12 Jun 2011June 2011 general election
327 / 550
135 / 550
53 / 550
35 / 550
104

See also

References

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