Succession to the Saudi Arabian throne

The House of Saud controlled vast parts of the Arabian peninsula for two and a half centuries. The dynasty collapsed twice in the 1800s due to discord over succession. In 1890s, the Al Sauds were completely supplanted by the Al Rashid. The kingdom began to fight to restore itself through Emir Abdulaziz bin Abdul Rahman, known to the world as "Ibn Saud", and his capture of Riyadh in 1902.[7] After much tumult, Saudi Arabia became a kingdom in 1932.

As Ibn Saud conquered Arabia, he formed alliances by polygamous marriages to members of its biggest tribes. This strengthened his power within the Al Sauds and expanded his legitimacy in Arabia, not to mention nearly a hundred children, sixty of whom were boys. He died in 1953.[8]

When Ibn Saud first began the reconquest of his kingdom, he had a son named Turki, who was considered his likely heir, but he died during the great influenza epidemic of 1918–19, leaving a pregnant wife behind. It was unthinkable to have a baby as heir to a kingdom that was patently unstable, as the Emirate of Najd was in 1920. The Emir decided to leave the question open, leaving hope for one of his brothers or his second son Saud to eventually take over what would become a mighty kingdom.

In the late 1920s and early 30s, Ibn Saud's brother Muhammad bin Abdul-Rahman began to argue with him as to who would be next in line, his son Khalid, or Saud. In 1933, the king made his choice, and Prince Saud was declared Crown Prince.

Late in life, King ibn Saud declared that he wished that the Saudi succession would be via agnatic seniority and that Saud's heir presumptive would be his next, and more capable son, Faisal. Accordingly, when the old king died in 1953, Saud became king and Faisal was immediately declared Crown prince.

For the eleven years of his reign, the question of who was to succeed King Saud was considered a "done deal". However, as the war between the King and Crown Prince grew more heated in the early 1960s, the King let it be known that he was considering changing the line of succession from agnatic seniority to agnatic primogeniture and naming his eldest son Crown Prince. This was unacceptable to the rest of the Royal Clan, and at Faisal's request, Prince Muhammed led a palace coup which ousted the King in late 1964.[9]

Despite problems that led to his nickname "The Father of the Two Evils", Prince Mohammed was an intelligent and dynamic personality, leaving the possibility of another royal feud. During one of the times Faisal had taken over the government, he had appointed his half brother Khalid as Deputy Prime Minister in 1962, bypassing Muhammed. Secret negotiations as to the conditions to which Muhammed would step aside would last well after the reign of Faisal had begun, and Muhammed was technically Crown Prince from 1964 to 1965, when Khalid was declared to have the position, in the process disinheriting two other princes, Nasser and Saad, who were deemed "unworthy".

One of the reasons that Muhammed initially demured from standing down, was his distrust of the so-called Sudairi Seven, the sons of Ibn Saud's favorite wife. The eldest of the group, Prince Fahd, was Faisal's top choice. He was given the position of "second deputy Prime Minister" and at the same time, royal sources let it be known that Prince Abdullah, head of the National Guard, would be in line after him. Between the two, they would reign for thirty-three years.

As King Khalid's health began to rapidly decline, the problem of succession came back into the fore. Crown Prince Fahd wanted his next full brother, Defense Minister Prince Sultan, to become "heir to the heir", but there was a hitch: there were two brothers senior to Sultan, namely Princes Bandar and Musa'id. Prince Musa'id was in disgrace, his son having murdered King Faisal, but Bandar was a different matter.[10]

For much of his life, Bandar had stayed away from government, preferring private business. However, now he demanded his right to the succession, and Prince Sultan's Defense portfolio as well. He was asked to name his price for stepping aside and, seeing that his more powerful brothers were inimical to the idea of his accession, Bandar read the writing on the wall and accepted the offer of money. He is said to have named a high price, but the massive bribe, reputed to be in the tens of millions of USD (US$), was something the world's richest family could easily afford. Bandar accepted the money and yielded place to Prince Sultan.

King Fahd reigned over the kingdom from 1982 to 2005. King Abdullah ascended the throne in 2005 on his 81st birthday, whereupon Prince Sultan was automatically promoted to the position of crown prince. Most other surviving sons of Ibn Saud were elderly and bypassed. Crown Prince Sultan convinced the King to appoint the next Sudairi, Nayef, to the Second deputy spot. In 2011-12, both Sultan and Nayef died within months of each other, and a fourth Sudairi brother, Salman, became crown prince on 18 June 2012.

The purpose of the Council is to ensure the smooth transition of power in the event of incapacitation or death of the King or Crown Prince.

This, along with an earlier decree by King Fahd, opened the possibility of considering Abdul-Aziz's grandsons as viable candidates. Beyond age, the criteria for selection include:

• Support within the House of Saud
• Tenure in government
• Tribal affiliations and origins of a candidate's mother
• Religious persona
• Acceptance by the Ulema
• Support by the merchant community
• Popularity among the general Saudi citizenry.

The Council votes by secret ballot.[11][12]

With the promotion of Crown Prince Sultan's three successors deemed automatic, and the King's writ on the subject of the appointment of the second deputy PM (the honorific "deputy crown prince" being much more recent than the position itself). The Council has proved to be little more than a "rubber stamp."

After almost a year with the post of second deputy Prime Minister vacant. During this time, there were reports of an attempted coup.[13] In response to this, Prince Muqrin, the youngest son of Ibn Saud, was formally designated second deputy by royal decree in 2013. This meant that he was informally second in line, bypassing several senior princes. In order to make his place in the line of succession permanent and preclude any challenges by any of the dispossessed royals, King Abdullah polled each member of the Allegiance Council individually before announcing Muqrin's new title.[14] The Allegiance Council met on 27 March 2014, for an official vote, which was 75% yes and 25% no.[15]

As King Abdullah lay dying, a plot to change the line of succession was underway.[16] It was said that Chief of the Royal Court Khaled al-Tuwaijri was conspiring with others to oust Crown Prince Salman and replace him with either Prince Muqrin or the King's son Prince Mit'eb.[17]

Upon the death of King Abdullah on 23 January 2015, Salman ascended to the throne and Muqrin became crown prince.[1] At the same time, Muhammad bin Nayef, the Interior Minister and a supporter of Salman's, was appointed deputy crown prince, an act that was ratified by the Allegiance Council after the fact. Muhammad bin Nayef is the first grandson of Ibn Saud to enter the official line of succession.