2010 Taiwanese local elections

Local elections were held in Taiwan on 27 November 2010 to elect mayors, councillors, and village chiefs of special-municipalities (Kaohsiung, New Taipei, Taichung, Tainan and Taipei), known as the Five Municipalities Elections (Chinese: 五都選舉).[2] Mayoral candidates for the Kuomintang were elected in New Taipei, Taipei, and Taichung, while candidates for the Democratic Progressive Party were elected in Kaohsiung and Tainan. On the eve of the election, Sean Lien, son of former Vice President Chan Lien, was shot in face when he was campaigning for a Kuomintang New Taipei councillor candidate.

2010 Taiwanese local elections

27 November 2010 (2010-11-27)[lower-alpha 1][1]

5 mayors and others[lower-alpha 2]
Registered10,663,545
Turnout71.71% 5.96 pp[lower-alpha 3]
  First party Second party
 
Leader Ma Ying-jeou Tsai Ing-wen
Party Kuomintang DPP
Leader since 17 October 2009 20 May 2008
Last election 3 seats, 52.13% 2 seats, 45.23%
Seats won 3 2
Seat change
Popular vote 3,369,052 3,772,373
Percentage 44.54% 49.87%
Swing 7.59 pp 4.65 pp
Councillors 130 130
Township/city representatives 715 169

Elected magistrate/mayor party by seat

Earlier in the year on 12 June 2010, elections were held to elect representatives in township/city councils and village chiefs.

Results summary

Elected mayors and council composition in the 2010 Taiwanese local election
Subdivision Mayor Council
First party Seats[lower-alpha 4] Second party Seats Total seats
New Taipei City Eric Chu Kuomintang 30 DPP 28 66
Taipei City Hau Lung-pin Kuomintang 31 DPP 23 62
Taichung City Jason Hu Kuomintang 27 DPP 24 63
Tainan City Lai Ching-te DPP 27 Kuomintang 13 57
Kaohsiung City Chen Chu Kuomintang 29 DPP 28 66
Mayoral election results
Subdivision Electorate Turnout (%) Winner Runner-up Map
Name Votes % Name Votes %
New Taipei City 3,006,877 71.25 Eric Chu 1,115,536 52.61 Tsai Ing-wen 1,004,900 47.39
Taipei City 2,045,925 70.65 Hau Lung-pin 797,865 55.65 Su Tseng-chang 628,129 43.81
Taichung City 1,977,368 73.15 Jason Hu 730,284 51.12 Su Jia-chyuan 698,358 48.88
Tainan City 1,467,256 71.01 Lai Ching-te 619,897 60.41 Kuo Tien-tsai 406,196 39.59
Kaohsiung City 2,166,119 72.52 Chen Chu 821,089 52.80 Yang Chiu-hsing 414,950 26.68


Taipei

Electoral background

Polling

Poll source Date of completion Hau Lung-pin Su Tseng-chang Undecided
TVBSMay 26, 2010[6] 46%41%14%
Era TelevisionJune 11, 2010[7]39.3% 41.0%19.6%
Era TelevisionJune 22, 2010[8] 41.8%37.7%20.5%
China TimesJuly 15, 2010[9] 42.9%38.5%18.7%
TVBSJuly 20, 2010[10] 44%41%15%
I-tel ResearchAugust 19, 2010[11] 58.33%41.67%
TVBSAugust 25, 2010[12] 45%42%12%
Apple DailyAugust 29, 2010[13]43.12% 44.68%12.20%
I-tel ResearchSeptember 1, 2010[14]44.55% 55.45%
TVBSSeptember 8, 2010[15]42% 45%13%
China TimesSeptember 17, 2010[16]39.0% 41.2%19.8%
I-tel ResearchSeptember 20, 2010[17] 52.94%47.06%
United Daily NewsSeptember 26, 2010[18] 41%33%26%
Apple DailyOctober 3, 2010[19] 47.52%35.64%16.84%
TVBSOctober 6, 2010[20] 43%42%15%
Shih Hsin UniversityOctober 12, 2010[21] 33.2%30.1%36.7%
Liberty TimesOctober 21, 2010[22]36.84% 37.45%25.71%
United Daily NewsOctober 24, 2010[23] 48%37%15%
TVBSOctober 27, 2010[24] 46%40%14%
China TimesNovember 3, 2010[25] 42.7%42.1%15.2%
Wealth MagazineNovember 7, 2010[26]37.2% 38.5%24.3%
Shih Hsin UniversityNovember 8, 2010[27] 33.4%33.0%33.6%
Democratic Progressive PartyNovember 10, 2010[28]39.3% 40.8%19.9%
TVBSNovember 11, 2010[29] 49%39%12%
China TimesNovember 14, 2010[30] 47.3%39.6%13.2%

Predictions

Source Date of release Voter turnout Hau Lung-pin Su Tseng-chang
TVBSAugust 25, 2010[31]66% 51%49%
TVBSSeptember 8, 2010[32]67%48% 52%
I-tel ResearchOctober 4, 2010[33] 50.59%49.41%
United Daily NewsOctober 24, 2010[23]49% 51%
TVBSOctober 27, 2010[34]68% 50.3%49.7%
TVBSNovember 11, 2010[35]68% 53%47%
Global ViewsNovember 27, 2010[36]68% 50.6%48.5%

Municipal Mayoral Election

Party # Candidate Votes Percentage
Kuomintang 2 Hau Lung-pin (郝龍斌) 797,865 55.65%
Democratic Progressive Party 5 Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) 628,129 43.81%
Independent 4 Francis Wu (吳武明) 3,672 0.26%
Independent 3 Helen Hsiao (蕭淑華) 2,238 0.16%
Independent 1 Wu Yen-cheng (吳炎成) 1,832 0.13%
Total 1,433,736 100.00%
Voter turnout 70.65%

Municipal Councilmen Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Kuomintang 637,255 44.93% 31
Democratic Progressive Party 516,140 36.39% 23
New Party 74,116 5.23% 3
People First Party 65,550 4.62% 2
Taiwan Solidarity Union 36,302 2.56% 1
Green Party Taiwan 16,329 1.15% 0
Taiwan Constitution Association 188 0.01% 0
Independent 72,455 5.11% 2
Total 1,418,335 100.00% 62
Voter turnout 70.65%

Ward Chiefs Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Kuomintang 648,243 48.63% 247
Democratic Progressive Party 105,465 7.91% 41
Green Party Taiwan 964 0.07% 0
Independent 578,227 43.38% 168
Total 1,332,899 100.00% 456
Voter turnout 70.72%

New Taipei

Electoral background

Polling

Poll source Date of completion Eric Chu Li-luan Tsai Ing-wen Undecided
China TimesMay 24, 2010[40] 33.0%28.2%38.7%
TVBSMay 24, 2010[41]43% 44%14%
TVBSJuly 16, 2010[42] 46%40%14%
China TimesJuly 17, 2010[43]39.2% 39.8%21.0%
Era TelevisionJuly 21, 2010[44] 41.1%36.2%22.7%
Democratic Progressive PartyAugust 19, 2010[45] 44.2%44.1%11.7%
TVBSAugust 23, 2010[46] 47%40%13%
I-tel ResearchAugust 23, 2010[47]45% 55%
I-tel ResearchSeptember 7, 2010[48]43.9% 56.1%
Apple DailySeptember 11, 2010[49] 47.04%39.08%13.88%
China TimesSeptember 17, 2010[50] 42.1%38.1%19.8%
Democratic Progressive PartySeptember 23, 2010[51] 44.4%43.5%12.1%
United Daily NewsSeptember 27, 2010[52] 45%28%26%
I-tel ResearchSeptember 28, 2010[53] 55.63%44.38%
Apple DailyOctober 4, 2010[54] 48.49%35.13%16.38%
TVBSOctober 5, 2010[55] 47%35%17%
Democratic Progressive PartyOctober 7, 2010[56]43.1% 43.5%13.4%
Citizen's Association of TaiwanOctober 8, 2010[57] 37.9%35.3%26.8%
Shih Hsin UniversityOctober 10, 2010[58] 35.3%31.3%33.4%
China TimesOctober 17, 2010[59] 43%34%23%
Liberty TimesOctober 19, 2010[60] 35.81%34.00%30.19%
United Daily NewsOctober 27, 2010[61] 45%37%18%
TVBSOctober 29, 2010[62] 44%40%16%
China TimesNovember 2, 2010[63] 44%38%18%
Liberty TimesNovember 2, 2010[64]35.82% 38.49%25.69%
Wealth MagazineNovember 5, 2010[26] 39.3%34.3%26.4%
Decision Making ResearchNovember 6, 2010[65] 39.9%37.2%22.9%
Shih Hsin UniversityNovember 7, 2010[66] 33.5%30.4%36.1%
China TimesNovember 8, 2010[67] 45.6%41.6%12.8%
TVBSNovember 9, 2010[68] 45%38%17%
Democratic Progressive PartyNovember 12, 2010[69] 40.3%39.1%20.6%
Liberty TimesNovember 12, 2010[70]38.81% 39.29%21.90%

Predictions

Source Date of release Voter turnout Eric Chu Li-luan Tsai Ing-wen
TVBSAugust 23, 2010[71]69% 53%47%
I-tel ResearchOctober 4, 2010[72]49.56% 50.44%
United Daily NewsOctober 27, 2010[61] 55%45%
TVBSOctober 29, 2010[73]71% 51%49%
TVBSNovember 9, 2010[74]71% 51%49%
Global ViewsNovember 27, 2010[36]69.1% 48.9%51.1%

Municipal Mayoral Election

Party # Candidate Votes Percentage
Kuomintang 1 Eric Chu Li-luan (朱立倫) 1,115,536 52.61%
Democratic Progressive Party 2 Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) 1,004,900 47.39%
Total 2,120,436 100.00%
Voter turnout 71.25%

Municipal Councilmen Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Kuomintang 831,590 39.74% 30
Democratic Progressive Party 724,807 34.64% 28
People First Party 40,755 1.95% 0
New Party 18,807 0.90% 0
Taiwan Solidarity Union 33,789 1.61% 0
Green Party Taiwan 8,321 0.40% 0
Independent 434,368 20.76% 8
Total 2,092,437 100.00% 66
Voter turnout 71.29%

Ward Chiefs Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Kuomintang 645,761 32.68% 354
Democratic Progressive Party 75,790 3.84% 25
Chinese Reunification Party 1,912 0.10% 1
People First Party 208 0.01% 0
Independent 1,252,189 63.37% 652
Total 1,975,860 100.00% 1,032
Voter turnout 71.45%

Taichung

Electoral background


The newly created central municipality Taichung will be formed from the merging and elevation of Taichung County and Taichung City, both of which are currently county-level divisions of Taiwan. At present, both Taichung County and Taichung are under the administration of the Kuomintang, with the incumbent Taichung County Magistrate being Huang Chung-sheng and the incumbent Taichung City Mayor being Jason Hu Chih-chiang. The electoral composition of Taichung County is relatively balanced with only a slight overall inclination towards the Pan-Blue political camp, whereas Taichung City is commonly considered to be mildly leaning towards the Pan-Blue political camp. It is estimated that in Taichung County, approximately 52% of voters who identify themselves with political inclination support the Pan-Blue Coalition, whilst 48% support the Pan-Green Coalition.[37] In Taichung City, the proportion of Pan-Blue to Pan-Green supporters within voters who identify themselves with political inclination is approximately 55% to 45%.[37]

Polling

Poll source Date of completion Jason Hu Chih-chiang Su Jia-chyuan Undecided
Apple DailyMay 24, 2010[75] 53.40%35.39%11.21%
TVBSMay 25, 2010[76] 57%26%17%
United Daily NewsJune 4, 2010[77] 46%24%30%
Liberty TimesJune 9, 2010[78] 35.59%28.71%29.67%
Era TelevisionJuly 6, 2010[79] 44.6%32.5%22.9%
TVBSJuly 22, 20102[80] 51%31%19%
Era TelevisionJuly 27, 2010[81] 43.5%30.7%25.8%
I-tel ResearchAugust 26, 2010[82] 62%38%
TVBSAugust 27, 2010[83] 51%30%19%
I-tel ResearchSeptember 9, 2010[84] 52.25%47.75%
Democratic Progressive PartySeptember 15, 2010[85] 45%36%19%
China TimesSeptember 19, 2010[86] 41%35%25%
Apple DailySeptember 26, 2010[87] 51.82%36.26%11.92%
United Daily NewsSeptember 28, 2010[88] 43%25%29%
Democratic Progressive PartySeptember 29, 2010[89] 46.4%33.3%20.3%
I-tel ResearchSeptember 29, 2010[90] 59.57%40.43%
TVBSOctober 12, 2010[91] 47%34%18%
Shih Hsin UniversityOctober 12, 2010[92] 37.9%22.2%39.9%
Democratic Progressive PartyOctober 13, 2010[93] 45.7%35.3%19.0%
United Daily NewsOctober 27, 2010[61] 49%31%20%
Democratic Progressive PartyOctober 27, 2010[94] 40.5%35.4%24.1%
China TimesOctober 31, 2010[95] 43%33%23%
Liberty TimesNovember 5, 2010[96] 34.85%30.04%35.11%
Democratic Progressive PartyNovember 6, 2010[97] 40.1%35.1%24.8%
Shih Hsin UniversityNovember 9, 2010[98] 36.3%26.5%37.2%
China TimesNovember 12, 2010[99] 47.1%40.1%12.8%
Beterly ResearchNovember 15, 2010[100]28.9% 29.2%41.9%

Predictions

Source Date of release Voter turnout Jason Hu Chih-chiang Su Jia-chyuan
TVBSAugust 27, 2010[101]65% 58%42%
I-tel ResearchOctober 4, 2010[102] 57.28%42.72%
United Daily NewsOctober 27, 2010[61] 56%44%
Global ViewsNovember 27, 2010[36]64.1% 50.6%49.4%

Municipal Mayoral Election

Party # Candidate Votes Percentage
Kuomintang 2 Jason Hu Chih-chiang (胡志強) 730,284 51.12%
Democratic Progressive Party 1 Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全) 698,358 48.88%
Total 1,428,642 100.00%
Voter turnout 73.15%

Municipal Councilmen Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Kuomintang 531,365 37.64% 27
Democratic Progressive Party 460,345 32.61% 24
Taiwan Solidarity Union 24,396 1.73% 1
People First Party 9,247 0.66% 1
Independent 386,217 27.36% 10
Total 1,411,570 100.00% 63
Voter turnout 73.21%

Ward Chiefs Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Kuomintang 465,827 34.40% 227
Democratic Progressive Party 54,623 4.03% 18
Independent 833,529 61.56% 379
Total 1,353,979 100.00% 624
Voter turnout 73.31%

Tainan

Electoral background


The newly created central municipality Tainan will be formed from the merging and elevation of Tainan County and Tainan City, both of which are currently county-level divisions of Taiwan. The incumbent Tainan County Magistrate Su Huan-chih and the incumbent Tainan City Mayor being Hsu Tain-tsair are both members of the Democratic Progressive Party. Having been under the administration of the Democratic Progressive Party for the past seventeen and thirteen years respectively, both Tainan County and Tainan City are commonly considered to be strongholds of the Pan-Green political camp.[39] It is estimated that in both the county and the city, approximately 60% of voters who identify themselves with political inclination support the Pan-Green Coalition, whilst 40% support the Pan-Blue Coalition.[37]

Polling

Poll source Date of completion William Lai Ching-te Kuo Tien-tsai Undecided
TVBSMay 20, 2010[103] 59%22%19%
TVBSJuly 27, 2010[104] 53%25%22%
Era TelevisionAugust 17, 2010[105] 47.7%18.9%33.4%
I-tel ResearchAugust 27, 2010[106] 67.21%32.79%
TVBSAugust 31, 2010[107] 53%25%21%
I-tel ResearchSeptember 13, 2010[108] 75.42%24.58%
China TimesSeptember 18, 2010[109] 52%21%27%
United Daily NewsSeptember 29, 2010[110] 44%20%33%
I-tel ResearchSeptember 30, 2010[111] 66.43%33.57%
TVBSOctober 13, 2010[112] 50%28%22%
Shih Hsin UniversityOctober 16, 2010[113] 36.2%23.3%40.5%
Liberty TimesOctober 23, 2010[114] 44.07%16.73%39.2%
United Daily NewsOctober 29, 2010[115] 48%24%28%
China TimesOctober 29, 2010[116] 52%23%25%
TVBSNovember 4, 2010[117] 47%34%18%
Shih Hsin UniversityNovember 13, 2010[118] 37.7%22.0%40.3%
Democratic Progressive PartyNovember 13, 2010[119] 51.3%25.9%22.8%

Predictions

Source Date of release Voter turnout William Lai Ching-te Kuo Tien-tsai
TVBSAugust 31, 2010[120]67% 64%36%
I-tel ResearchOctober 4, 2010[121] 66.79%33.21%
United Daily NewsOctober 29, 2010[115] 58%42%
TVBSNovember 4, 2010[122]71% 56%44%
Global ViewsNovember 27, 2010[36]61.7% 62.5%37.5%

Municipal Mayoral Election

Party # Candidate Votes Percentage
Democratic Progressive Party 2 William Lai Ching-te (賴清德) 619,897 60.41%
Kuomintang 1 Kuo Tien-tsai (郭添財) 406,196 39.59%
Total 1,026,093 100.00%
Voter turnout 71.01%

Municipal Councilmen Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Democratic Progressive Party 378,139 37.01% 27
Kuomintang 288,861 28.27% 13
People First Party 5,774 0.57% 0
New Party 810 0.08% 0
Taiwan Solidarity Union 4,701 0.46% 0
Taiwan Public Opinion Party 138 0.01% 0
Independent 343,300 33.60% 17
Total 1,021,723 100.00% 57
Voter turnout 71.09%

Ward Chiefs Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Kuomintang 191,288 19.56% 124
Democratic Progressive Party 69,780 7.13% 40
Independent 717,077 73.31% 588
Total 978,145 100.00% 752
Voter turnout 71.17%

Kaohsiung

Electoral background


The newly created central municipality Kaohsiung will be formed from the merging of Kaohsiung County and the current central municipality Kaohsiung City. The incumbent Kaohsiung Municipal Mayor Chen Chu and the incumbent Kaohsiung County Magistrate Yang Chiu-hsing are both members of the Democratic Progressive Party. Having been under the administration of the Democratic Progressive Party for the past twelve years, the electoral composition of Kaohsiung City has a slight overall inclination towards the Pan-Green political camp.[123] On the other hand, Kaohsiung County has been under the control of Tangwai members and the Democratic Progressive Party for 25 years, is widely considered to be solidly in the Pan-Green political camp.[38][39] It is estimated that in Kaohsiung County, approximately 60% of voters who identify themselves with political inclination support the Pan-Green Coalition, whilst 40% support the Pan-Blue Coalition.[37]

Polling

Poll source Date of completion Chen Chu  Yang Chiu-hsing Huang Chao-shun Undecided
TVBSMay 27, 2010[124] 62%26%12%
Era TelevisionJuly 13, 2010[125] 45.4%25.4%11.7%17.5%
TVBSJuly 29, 2010[126] 43%26%16%15%
Apple DailyAugust 3, 2010[127] 43.75%27.18%20.49%8.58%
Era TelevisionAugust 3, 2010[128] 43.6%23.8%11.5%21.2%
United Daily NewsAugust 4, 2010[129] 44%23%13%19%
Democratic Progressive PartyAugust 9, 2010[130] 53.7%22.6%15.3%8.4%
TVBSAugust 10, 2010[131] 46%28%14%12%
I-tel ResearchAugust 16, 2010[132] 54.35%36.96%8.70%
Liberty TimesAugust 18, 2010[133] 46%19%7%28%
I-tel ResearchAugust 31, 2010[134] 48.36%20.49%31.15%
TVBSSeptember 2, 2010[135] 46%22%16%16%
I-tel ResearchSeptember 17, 2010[136] 56.45%25.81%17.74%
China TimesSeptember 18, 2010[137] 45.5%20.2%14.9%19.3%
Apple DailySeptember 23, 2010[138] 36.39%24.60%18.05%20.96%
United Daily NewsSeptember 26, 2010[18] 37%24%14%23%
Democratic Progressive PartySeptember 27, 2010[139] 46.0%26.3%12.4%15.3%
TVBSSeptember 28, 2010[140] 42%21%18%19%
The Commons DailySeptember 29, 2010[141] 31.7%18.8%7.3%42.4%
Apple DailySeptember 29, 2010[142] 38.30%22.48%19.61%19.61%
China TimesSeptember 30, 2010[143] 42.8%21.1%13.8%22.3%
Democratic Progressive PartyOctober 12, 2010[144] 47.0%21.7%14.8%16.5%
Shih Hsin UniversityOctober 14, 2010[145] 31.7%20.6%15.2%32.5%
TVBSOctober 25, 2010[146] 43%26%16%15%
China TimesOctober 28, 2010[147] 47.1%23.4%10.3%19.2%
Liberty TimesOctober 30, 2010[148] 43.27%18.52%7.8%30.41%
United Daily NewsOctober 31, 2010[149] 39%29%16%16%
TVBSNovember 7, 2010[150] 41%28%16%15%
Democratic Progressive PartyNovember 9, 2010[151] 47.2%25.6%12.5%14.7%
Shih Hsin UniversityNovember 11, 2010[152] 34.1%18.2%15.3%32.4%
Liberty TimesNovember 15, 2010[148] 45.03%16.76%11.51%26.37%
China TimesNovember 15, 2010[153] 46.0%24.0%13.7%16.3%

Predictions

Source Date of release Voter turnout Chen Chu  Yang Chiu-hsing Huang Chao-shun
TVBSSeptember 2, 2010[154]72% 52%26%22%
I-tel ResearchOctober 4, 2010[155] 52.74%25.34%21.92%
TVBSOctober 25, 2010[156]74% 46%31%23%
United Daily NewsOctober 31, 2010[149] 44%35%21%
TVBSNovember 7, 2010[157]73% 45%33%21%
KuomintangNovember 15, 2010[158] 41.52%27.68%30.80%
Global ViewsNovember 27, 2010[36]69.7% 55.6%39.2%5.2%

Municipal Mayoral Election

Party # Candidate Votes Percentage
Democratic Progressive Party 3 Chen Chu (陳菊) 821,089 52.80%
Independent 1 Yang Chiu-hsing (楊秋興) 414,950 26.68%
Kuomintang 2 Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順) 319,171 20.52%
Total 1,555,210 100.00%
Voter turnout 72.52%

Municipal Councilmen Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Kuomintang 601,083 39.08% 29
Democratic Progressive Party 564,397 36.70% 28
People First Party 30,355 1.97% 1
New Party 1,317 0.09% 0
Taiwan Solidarity Union 27,171 1.77% 0
Independent 313,586 20.39% 8
Total 1,537,889 100.00% 66
Voter turnout 72.60%

Ward Chiefs Election

Party Votes Percentage Seats
Kuomintang 393,136 26.81% 242
Democratic Progressive Party 170,430 11.62% 96
Taiwan Solidarity Union 85 0.01% 0
Independent 902,836 61.56% 555
Total 1,466,487 100.00% 893
Voter turnout 72.72%

Implications and reactions

A forum entitled "Policy Direction after Five Metropolitan Elections in Taiwan", organized by the Institute for National Policy Research on Monday, November 29, 2010, concluded that although the Kuomintang won three of the five mayoral positions, in terms of the overall votes won, the real victor was in fact the Democratic Progressive Party.[159]

Raymond Burghardt, chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, said that the way both parties handled the shooting which wounded Sean Lien, son of former vice-president Lien Chan, "was also a sign of political maturity."[160]

Taiwanese political scientist Hsu Yung-ming believed that the elections signalled the era of the new "Four Heavenly Kings" Tsai Ing-wen, Chen Chu, William Lai and Su Jia-chyuan within the Democratic Progressive Party.[161]

See also

Notes

  1. Township/city council and village elections in counties were held on 12 June 2010
    • 314 councillors
    • 3,757 village chiefs in municipalities
    • 2,322 township/city council representatives
    • 4,074 village chiefs in counties
    Figures in this infobox are for mayor elections unless otherwise noted
  2. Compared to the 2 municipal mayor elections of 2006
  3. Bold figures indicate majority

References

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