2013 Norwegian parliamentary election

A parliamentary election was held in Norway on 8 and 9 September 2013 to elect all 169 members of the unicameral Norwegian Parliament. The centre-right coalition obtained 96 seats, while the incumbent red–green coalition government obtained 72 seats and the Green Party obtained one. The Labour Party won the largest share (30.8%) of the votes cast, with the Conservatives coming second (26.8%), after increasing its share by 9.6 percentage points.

2013 Norwegian parliamentary election
8 and 9 September 2013
All 169 seats in the Norwegian Parliament
85 seats were needed for a majority
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Jens Stoltenberg Erna Solberg Siv Jensen
Party Labour Conservative Progress
Leader's seat Oslo Hordaland Oslo
Last election 64 seats, 35.4% 30 seats, 17.2% 41 seats, 22.9%
Seats won 55 48 29
Seat change 9 18 12
Popular vote 874,769 760,232 463,560
Percentage 30.8% 26.8% 16.3%
Swing 4.5 pp 9.6 pp 6.6 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Knut Arild Hareide Liv Signe Navarsete Trine Skei Grande
Party Christian Democratic Centre Liberal
Leader's seat Hordaland Sogn og Fjordane Oslo
Last election 10 seats, 5.5% 11 seats, 6.2% 2 seats, 3.8%
Seats won 10 10 9
Seat change 1 7
Popular vote 158,475 155,357 148,275
Percentage 5.6% 5.5% 5.2%
Swing 0.1 pp 0.7pp 1.4pp
  Seventh party Eighth party
 
Leader Audun Lysbakken Hanna E. Marcussen
Harald A. Nissen
Party Socialist Left Green
Leader's seat Hordaland
Last election 11 seats, 6.2% 0 seats, 0.4%
Seats won 7 1
Seat change 4 1
Popular vote 116,021 79,152
Percentage 4.1% 2.8%
Swing 2.1pp 2.4pp
Prime Minister before election

Jens Stoltenberg
Labour

 Elected Prime Minister

Erna Solberg
Conservative

Elections in Norway are held on a Monday in September, usually the second or third Monday, as determined by the king-in-council (i.e. the government). In 2013, the election was held on the second Monday. Each municipality was permitted to open some or all of its polling stations on the day before the nationwide election day. This option was exercised by 206 of the 428 municipalities.[1][2] The main period for early voting was 12 August to 6 September, it was also possible to make an even earlier vote after 1 July by contacting the municipal government.[3]

The election was the fourth for incumbent Prime Minister of Norway Jens Stoltenberg, whose party was previously defeated in the 2001 parliamentary election, but who won both the 2005 parliamentary election and the 2009 parliamentary election (though in the latter election, the opposition narrowly received more votes than the coalition) leading the red–green coalition. Had he been re-elected, Stoltenberg would have been the first prime minister in Norway to be elected for three consecutive terms.

The election ended with a victory for the four opposition right-of-center parties, which won a total of 96 seats out of 169 (85 needed for a majority). The biggest gain was by the Conservative Party, which took 26.8% of the vote, while the governing red–green coalition lost ground; following convention, Stoltenberg's government resigned and handed over power in October. The Labour Party, however, remained the largest party in parliament with 30.8% of the popular vote. The Progress Party also lost ground, but nevertheless became a participant in the new government.

Among the smaller parties, the centrist Liberal Party and Christian Democrats emerged holding the balance of power. Both had campaigned for a change in government. On 30 September the two parties announced that they would support a minority coalition of the Conservative and Progress parties, but they would not participate in the cabinet themselves. The two smaller members of the red–green coalition both lost ground. The Centre Party lost only one seat and maintained a sizable parliamentary delegation, while the Socialist Left Party only narrowly reached the election threshold of 4%. The Green Party, which had not declared support for either bloc, received its first ever member of parliament with a single seat from Oslo.

System

The election used party-list proportional representation in nineteen multi-member constituencies, one for each of the counties of Norway.

The number of members to be returned from each constituency varies between 4 and 19. To determine the apportionment of the 169 seats amongst the 19 counties, a two-tier formula is used, based on population and geographic size. Each inhabitant counts one point, while each square kilometer counts 1.8 points.[4]

150 of the seats are regular district seats. These are awarded based on the election results in each county, and are unaffected by results in other counties. Nineteen of the seats (one for each county) are leveling seats which are given to parties that win fewer seats than their share of the national popular vote entitles them to. A party must win 4% of the popular vote in order to win compensation seats, but may still win district seats even if it fails to reach this threshold. The system for apportioning seats is biased in favour of rural areas since the area of the county is a factor, but the system of compensation seats reduces the effect this has on final party strength.[5]

The total number of seats in the parliament remained unchanged at 169, but population changes meant that some counties gained or lost seats. Hedmark, Sogn og Fjordane, Nord-Trøndelag, Nordland and Troms all lost one seat each. Akershus, Hordaland and Rogaland gained one each, whilst Oslo gained two.

Parties

Parliamentary parties
  • Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet), leader: Jens Stoltenberg. The Labour Party was the largest party in the 2009–2013 Storting, and the majority party in Stoltenberg's Second Cabinet. They got 35.4% of the votes and won 64 seats in the 2009 election. The party is primarily social democratic.
  • Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet), leader: Siv Jensen. The Progress Party was the largest opposition party in the 2009–2013 Storting, but have been the third-largest party in most public opinion polls of early 2013. The party is primarily right-libertarian.
  • Conservative Party (Høyre), leader: Erna Solberg. The Conservative Party was the second-largest opposition party in the 2009–2013 Storting, with 17.2% of the votes in the last elections. However, the party has been the largest opposition party in most of the public opinion polls in early 2013.
  • Socialist Left Party (Sosialistisk Vensterparti), leader: Audun Lysbakken. The Socialist Left Party was the second-largest government party. It is a democratic socialist party.
  • Centre Party (Senterpartiet), leader: Liv Signe Navarsete. The Centre Party was the third-largest party in the current government. It is agrarian, staunchly eurosceptic and serves the interests of farmers and people in rural areas.
  • Christian Democratic Party (Kristelig Folkeparti), leader: Knut Arild Hareide. The Christian Democratic Party was represented with 10 members of the 2009–2013 Storting.
  • Liberal Party (Venstre), leader: Trine Skei Grande. The Liberal Party is a centrist and liberal party. They earned 3.9% of the votes in the 2009 elections, and thus they were only represented with 2 seats in parliament, due to their failure at passing the electoral threshold of 4% on a nationwide scale.
  • Green Party (Miljøpartiet de Grønne), leader: Hanna Marcussen, Harald A. Nissen. The Greens experienced what has been described as a breakthrough in the 2011 Norwegian local elections. In this election the Greens won their first parliamentary seat.

Extra-parliamentary parties
  • Red Party (Rødt), leader: Bjørnar Moxnes. The Red Party is a communist political party on the far-left. With 1.3% of the votes, the party failed to get any parliamentary seats in the 2009 general election.
  • Pensioners' Party (Pensjonistpartiet), leader: Einar Lonstad. Following the last legislative election in Norway, the Pensioners' Party became the 9th largest party, with 0.4% of the votes. The party's primary aim is to promote the interests of pensioners and elderly people. It ran in only 12 counties.
  • Christian Unity Party (Kristent Samlingsparti), leader: Morten Selven. The party is a Christian ultra-conservative party. Running in only 12 counties, it received 0.2% of the votes in the 2009 election.
  • The Christians (De Kristne), leader: Erik Selle. The party, founded in 2011 in Bømlo, participated in the local elections in Bømlo and received 6.5% of the votes and two representatives in the local council. The party is founded on Christian conservative values, and is considered to lie between the Christian Democratic and the Christian Unity parties on the political spectrum. It ran in all counties.
  • The Democrats (Demokratene i Norge), leader: Elisabeth Rue Strencbo. A nationalist and populist party, it received 0.1% of the votes in the 2009 election. It ran in all counties.
  • Liberal People's Party (Det Liberale Folkeparti), leader: Vegard Martinsen. The party is libertarian, and advocates minimal government. It received below 0.1% percent of the votes in the 2009 election, and ran in only six counties.
  • Coastal Party (Kystpartiet), leader: Bengt Stabrun Johansen. A national conservative party, known for defending the rights of fishermen and whalers in northern Norway. It received only 0.2% of the vote in the 2009 elections, but in 2001 won as much as 10% in Nordland county, where it secured a single seat in the national parliament, held by the well-known whaling activist Steinar Bastesen. The party ran in all counties.
  • Pirate Party (Piratpartiet), leader: Øystein Jakobsen. Founded on the basis of the better-known international Pirate Parties in late 2012, its main cause is transparency in government. This was the party's first election. It ran in all counties.
  • Communist Party (Norges Kommunistiske Parti), leader: Svend Haakon Jacobsen. The Marxist–Leninist party is one of the oldest in Norway, dating back to 1923. It received under 0.1% of the votes in the 2009 election. It ran in seven counties.
  • People's List Against Oil Drilling in Lofoten, Vesterålen and Senja (Folkeliste mot oljeboring i Lofoten, Vesterålen og Senja), first candidate: Øystein Meier Johannessen. A single-issue party against oil drilling in the Lofoten, Vesterålen and Senja, an issue of great debate in Norway. This was the first election for the party, which ran a single candidate in Nordland.
  • People's Power (Folkemakten), leader: Siv Gørbitz. The party was founded in 2012, and advocates direct democracy. It fielded a single candidate in Hordaland.
  • Society Party (Samfunnspartiet), leader: Øystein Meier Johannessen. An anarchist party. It received below 0.1% of the votes in the 2009 election. It only ran in four counties.
  • A Hospital for Alta (Sykehus til Alta). First participation by this single-issue party which advocated the building of a new and modern hospital in Alta and ran only in Finnmark.

Leadership changes

Liberal Party

Lars Sponheim, who had been leader of the Liberal Party since 1996, stepped down in 2010. Trine Skei Grande was elected new leader on 18 March 2010.[6]

Christian Democratic Party

Dagfinn Høybråten, who had been leader of the Christian Democratic Party since 2004, stepped down on 30 April 2011. Knut Arild Hareide was elected leader on the same day.

Socialist Left Party

Kristin Halvorsen, who had been leader of the Socialist Left Party since 1997, stepped down in early 2012. Audun Lysbakken was elected as the new leader of the party on 11 March 2012.[7]

Red Party

Turid Thomassen, who had been leader of the Red Party since 2010, stepped down in early 2012. Bjørnar Moxnes was elected as the new leader on May 6, 2012.[8]

Campaign

Going into the campaign, the governing red–green coalition were far behind in the polls. Several polls had also shown that a "blue-blue" coalition of the Conservative and Progress parties might gain a majority.

The Labour Party continued to criticize the non-socialist opposition for being unable to propose a coalition that was endorsed by all parties. The Conservative Party desired a four-party coalition of all the opposition parties. The Liberal Party and Christian Democrats wanted a coalition with the Conservatives, while the Progress Party declared that they would not support a government they were not participating in. The opposition parties criticized the sitting government for health care queues and not making more use of private providers, for failure to invest in infrastructure, and for high tax rates.

The Green Party had never been in parliament before, but performed strongly in several polls, some even showing them above the threshold which would give them a sizable delegation in parliament. The Greens did not declare support for either the red–green or non-socialist blocs, but the Conservative Party considered the Greens to be well on the left side of the political spectrum. As their showings in polling rose, they began to face criticism for highly radical proposals. Nonetheless, the environmentally oriented Liberal and Socialist Left parties expressed worry that the Greens could become a spoiler by taking votes from them.

The Conservative Party's image branding of its leader Erna Solberg tried to take a softer tone after she had been dubbed in the media as "Iron Erna" when she tightened immigration rules as local government minister about a decade ago. Instead, their election website had shown her with pictures of hearts and of her smiling. The party's campaign issues included for secure jobs, healthcare, education and better roads.[9] It also campaigned for abolishing the inheritance tax, means-testing for welfare recipients, tax incentives for private savings, simplifying procurement rules to make it easier for smaller businesses to offer for government tenders and the deregulation of alcohol sales.[10]

The 2011 Norway attacks were not a central issue of the campaign. All the main parties had strongly condemned both the attacks and the political ideology of the perpetrator. When Stoltenberg accused the Conservatives of poor leadership skills for failing to offer a united alternative to the red–green coalition, Solberg retorted by pointing out that the Gjørv Report had cited poor leadership prior to the attacks. The retort provoked a negative reaction and was described as legitimate but unwise by the political commentator Frank Aarebrot.[11] 33 survivors of the attacks ran for parliament on a Labour ticket, with four being elected,[12] but their status as survivors was not a campaign issue.[13] The Progress Party focused less on this issue and more on healthcare and infrastructure.

Opinion polls

In the run up to the election, various organizations conducted opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Below is a month by month average of all opinion polls.

For the smaller parties, the election threshold of 4% became a threat. Several opinion polls showed the Socialist Left Party below the threshold, and on August 18 the party called a press conference declaring that the future of a political force left of Labour was at stake.[14] In the lead-up to the election, opinion polls consistently predicted a victory for the Conservative-led coalition.[15][16]

Polling period[15] Government Opposition Other Ap+Sp+SV H+FrP+KrF+V Lead
Ap Sp SV H FrP KrF V
September 2013 29.4% 5.1% 5.0% 27.0% 16.0% 6.1% 5.5% 6.0% 39.5% 54.6% +15.1
August 2013 29.0% 5.3% 4.3% 28.9% 15.2% 5.4% 5.3% 6.5% 38.6% 54.8% +16.2
July 2013 28.0% 4.6% 3.9% 31.6% 16.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.5% 36.5% 58.2% +21.7
June 2013 28.6% 4.5% 4.3% 32.0% 16.4% 5.3% 4.2% 4.6% 37.4% 57.9% +20.5
May 2013 28.9% 4.5% 4.7% 31.8% 16.0% 5.3% 4.7% 4.2% 38.1% 57.8% +19.7
April 2013 27.7% 4.8% 5.0% 32.6% 16.5% 5.1% 4.5% 3.8% 37.5% 58.7% +21.2
March 2013 28.1% 4.8% 4.4% 32.4% 16.8% 4.7% 5.2% 3.5% 37.3% 59.1% +21.8
February 2013 28.4% 4.7% 4.9% 32.9% 15.6% 5.3% 4.5% 3.6% 38.0% 58.3% +20.3
January 2013 28.6% 4.4% 4.1% 33.6% 15.9% 5.5% 4.4% 3.2% 37.1% 59.4% +22.3
December 2012 28.6% 4.7% 4.3% 32.0% 16.2% 5.3% 5.2% 3.5% 37.6% 58.7% +21.1
November 2012 29.6% 4.5% 4.4% 31.4% 17.0% 5.0% 4.9% 3.0% 38.5% 58.3% +19.8
October 2012 27.8% 4.4% 4.1% 33.9% 17.2% 5.0% 4.5% 3.2% 36.3% 60.6% +24.3
September 2012 29.2% 4.3% 3.9% 33.5% 16.6% 5.2% 3.9% 3.4% 37.4% 59.2% +21.8
August 2012 30.2% 4.4% 4.0% 31.6% 17.3% 4.6% 4.7% 3.3% 38.6% 58.2% +19.6
July 2012 29.8% 4.8% 3.9% 30.5% 18.4% 5.0% 4.4% 2.9% 38.5% 58.3% +19.8
June 2012 29.9% 4.7% 4.3% 32.0% 16.2% 4.7% 4.8% 3.4% 38.9% 57.7% +18.8
May 2012 30.8% 4.6% 4.2% 30.9% 16.0% 5.1% 4.7% 3.6% 39.6% 56.7% +17.1
April 2012 30.5% 5.1% 4.5% 29.4% 17.3% 5.1% 5.2% 3.0% 40.1% 57.2% +17.1
March 2012 32.9% 5.3% 4.5% 27.9% 16.3% 5.4% 4.6% 3.1% 42.7% 54.2% +11.5
February 2012 34.4% 5.1% 4.8% 27.9% 14.4% 5.1% 5.3% 2.9% 44.3% 52.5% +8.2
January 2012 34.7% 5.0% 4.1% 29.3% 13.7% 5.3% 4.9% 3.0% 43.8% 53.2% +9.4
Previous election
14 September 2009		 35.4% 6.2% 6.2% 17.2% 22.9% 5.5% 3.9% 2.5% 47.8% 49.5% +1.7

Seat predictions

The total number of seats in the parliament will remain 169, but due to changes in the population, some counties will gain or lose seats. Hedmark, Sogn og Fjordane, Nord-Trøndelag, Nordland and Troms all lose one seat each. Akershus, Hordaland and Rogaland gain one each, whilst Oslo gains two.

Polling period[15] Government Opposition Ap+Sp+SV H+FrP+KrF+V Lead
Ap Sp SV H FrP KrF V
September 2013 54 9 9 46 30 10 9 72 95 +23
August 2013 51 9 8 53 27 10 9 68 99 +31
July 2013 52 8 1 58 30 9 10 61 107 +46
June 2013 52 7 7 57 30 8 7 66 102 +36
May 2013 51 7 8 57 30 8 7 66 102 +36
April 2013 50 8 8 56 30 8 8 66 102 +36
March 2013 51 8 7 57 30 7 8 66 102 +36
February 2013 51 8 8 57 28 9 7 67 102 +35
January 2013 54 7 7 57 28 10 7 68 101 +33
December 2012 51 8 7 55 30 9 8 66 102 +36
November 2012 52 8 7 54 31 8 8 67 101 +34
October 2012 52 7 7 57 31 8 7 66 103 +37
September 2012 54 8 1 61 31 10 3 63 105 +42
August 2012 54 8 1 57 32 8 8 63 105 +42
July 2012 54 9 1 55 33 9 8 64 105 +41
June 2012 55 7 7 55 28 8 8 69 99 +30
May 2012 55 8 7 54 28 8 8 70 98 +28
April 2012 53 9 7 49 33 8 9 69 99 +30
March 2012 59 9 7 47 30 9 8 75 94 +19
February 2012 64 8 8 46 25 9 9 80 89 +9
January 2012 62 9 7 50 23 9 8 78 90 +12
Previous election
14 September 2009		 64 11 11 30 41 10 2 86 83 +3

Election

The voting centres closed at 19:00 GMT and the publication of exit polls followed.[17]

Results
Summary of the 9 September 2013 Norwegian parliamentary election results
Parties Votes Seats
# % ∆pp # ∆# %
Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet) 874,769 30.8 −4.5 55 −9 32.5
  Conservative Party (Høyre) 760,232 26.8 +9.6 48 +18 28.4
  Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet) 463,560 16.3 −6.6 29 −12 17.2
  Christian Democratic Party (Kristelig Folkeparti) 158,475 5.6 0.0 10 0 5.9
  Centre Party (Senterpartiet) 155,357 5.5 −0.7 10 −1 5.9
  Liberal Party (Venstre) 148,275 5.2 +1.4 9 +7 5.3
  Socialist Left Party (Sosialistisk Venstreparti) 116,021 4.1 −2.1 7 −4 4.1
  Green Party (Miljøpartiet De Grønne) 79,152 2.8 +2.4 1 +1 0.6
  Red Party (Rødt) 30,751 1.1 −0.3 0 0
  The Christians (De Kristne) 17,731 0.6 +0.6 0 0
  Pensioners' Party (Pensjonistpartiet) 11,865 0.4 0.0 0 0
  Pirate Party (Piratpartiet) 9,869 0.3 +0.3 0 0
  Coastal Party (Kystpartiet) 3,311 0.1 −0.1 0 0
  Democrats in Norway (Demokratene i Norge) 2,214 0.1 +0.1 0 0
  Christian Unity Party (Kristent Samlingsparti) 1,722 0.1 −0.1 0 0
  Liberal People's Party (Det Liberale Folkepartiet) 909 0.0 0.0 0 0
  Communist Party of Norway (Norges Kommunistiske Parti) 611 0.0 0.0 0 0
  Hospital to Alta (Sykehus til Alta) 467 0.0 0.0 0 0
  Society Party (Samfunnspartiet) 295 0.0 0.0 0 0
  LoVeSe (Folkeliste mot oljeboring i Lofoten, Vesterålen og Senja) 268 0.0 0.0 0 0
  People's Power (Folkemakten) 175 0.0 0.0 0 0
  Centre-right coalition
(Conservative Party, Progress Party, Christian Democratic Party, Liberal Party)		 1,530,542 54.0 +4.4 96 +13 56.8
  Red–green coalition
(Labour Party, Centre Party, Socialist Left Party)		 1,146,147 40.4 −7.3 72 −14 42.6
Total 2,836,029 100.0 – 169 – 100.0
Blank votes 12,874 0.5 +0.1
Invalid votes 3,255 0.1 0.0
Turnout 2,851,014 78.3 +1.9
Electorate 3,641,753
Source: KRD

Seats by county
For a complete list of representatives, see List of members of the parliament of Norway, 2013–17.
County Government Non-bloc Opposition Total
Ap Sp SV MDG H FrP KrF V
Østfold [18] 3 3 2 1 9
Akershus [19] 5 1 7 3 1 17
Oslo [20] 6 1 1 6 2 1 2 19
Hedmark [21] 3 1 1 1 1 7
Oppland [22] 3 1 1 1 1 7
Buskerud [23] 3 1 3 2 9
Vestfold [24] 2 2 2 1 7
Telemark [25] 3 1 1 1 6
Aust-Agder [26] 1 1 1 1 4
Vest-Agder [27] 2 2 1 1 6
Rogaland [28] 3 1 4 3 2 1 14
Hordaland [29] 4 1 1 6 2 1 1 16
Sogn og Fjordane [30] 1 1 1 1 4
Møre og Romsdal [31] 2 1 2 2 1 1 9
Sør-Trøndelag [32] 4 1 1 2 2 10
Nord-Trøndelag [33] 2 1 1 1 5
Nordland [34] 4 1 2 2 9
Troms [35] 2 1 2 1 6
Finnmark [36] 2 1 1 1 5
Total 55 10 7 1 48 29 10 9 169

Reactions

Conservative Party leader Erna Solberg said: "The voters had the choice between 12 years of red/green government or a new government with new ideas and new solutions".[9] Labour Party leader Jens Stoltenberg has conceded defeat, saying that the party tried "to do what almost no one has done, to win three elections in a row, but it turned out to be tough".[9] Progress Party leader Siv Jensen said: "We will ensure a solid footprint in a new government and if we are going to have good solutions, all four parties must have a place, all must be visible". Christian Democrat leader Knut Arild Hareide said: "The centre will play a key role. We and Trine Skei Grande (Liberal Party leader) have got a key role for the next four years. We are ready to put a new government in place".[16]

Several commentators noted in half-jest that all the parties had won something from the election. The four parties on the right gained a majority and were as such the victors, but also, for the defeated red–green coalition, there was a silver lining. The Labour Party's numbers in the polls rose during the campaign and they retained their status as the largest party. The Socialist Left Party had a historically bad election, but they succeeded at climbing over the election threshold and retained seven seats, as compared with a mere two seats had they fallen under. The Centre Party did better than expected, and emerged from eight years in government with about the same amount of support as before. Meanwhile, the Green Party could celebrate their first ever member of parliament.[37]

Analysis

University of Bergen politics professor Frank Aarebrot said of the election campaign that it was dominated by classical welfare issues such as better care for the elderly, improved hospitals and better schools. At the same time he pointed out that no party called for Norwegians to pay privately for such things as hospital visits, college education or elderly care.[9][38]

Government formation

The Conservative Party was said to be looking for coalition talks with the Progress Party, Liberal Party and the Christian Democrats.[9] Solberg said that while staying committed to cutting taxes, reducing the size of government and improving health care, she acknowledged a need to make policy concessions. "We will all have to give and take to get a policy stance that has a firm direction and will last over time. All three (other parties) will be tough negotiators in issues close to their hearts".[16] Four-party talks involved the Conservatives, Progress Party (FrP), Christian Democrats (KrF) and Liberals.[39] FrP demanded Siv Jensen become the new finance minister.[40]

On September 30, the four parties on the right announced that they had reached an agreement for a minority cabinet consisting of the Conservative and Progress parties with confidence and supply from the Liberal and Christian Democratic parties.[41]

References
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