2014 Saxony state election

The 2014 Saxony state election was held on 31 August 2014 to elect the members of the 6th Landtag of Saxony. The incumbent coalition government of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Free Democratic Party (FDP) led by Minister-President Stanislaw Tillich was defeated as the FDP lost all its seats. The CDU subsequently formed a grand coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), and Tillich was re-elected as Minister-President.

2014 Saxony state election

31 August 2014

All 126 seats of the Landtag of Saxony
64 seats needed for a majority
Turnout1,637,499 (49.1%)
3.1%
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Stanislaw Tillich Rico Gebhardt Martin Dulig
Party CDU Left SPD
Last election 58 seats, 40.2% 29 seats, 20.6% 14 seats, 10.4%
Seats won 59 27 18
Seat change 1 2 4
Popular vote 645,414 309,581 202,396
Percentage 39.4% 18.9% 12.4%
Swing 0.8% 1.7% 2.0%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Frauke Petry Antje Hermenau
Volkmar Zschocke
Holger Szymanski
Party AfD Green NPD
Last election Did not exist 9 seats, 6.4% 8 seats, 5.6%
Seats won 14 8 0
Seat change 14 1 8
Popular vote 159,611 93,857 81,051
Percentage 9.7% 5.7% 4.9%
Swing New party 0.7% 0.7%

  Seventh party
 
Leader Holger Zastrow
Party FDP
Last election 14 seats, 10.0%
Seats won 0
Seat change 14
Popular vote 61,840
Percentage 3.8%
Swing 6.2%

Results for the direct mandates.

Minister-President before election

Stanislaw Tillich
CDU

Elected Minister-President

Stanislaw Tillich
CDU

Background

After the 2009 state election, held a month before the 2009 federal election, the CDU–SPD grand coalition left office and was replaced by a CDU-led coalition with the FDP. The FDP suffered a major decline in support nationally after 2009, culminating in their ejection from the Bundestag in the 2013 federal election. Thus, in the lead-up to the 2014 state election, the Saxony state government was the only government nationwide that included the FDP. It seemed unlikely this coalition could continue after the election, as polling indicated the FDP may not even pass the 5% threshold to enter the Landtag.

The largest opposition party was The Left. Polling indicated that a coalition between The Left, the SPD and The Greens may have been able to secure a majority, but this option was rejected by both the SPD and the Greens prior to the election.

For the SPD, the state election in Saxony was their second electoral test (after the European elections) since becoming the junior partner in the federal grand coalition. Polls suggested that the public viewed the SPD's role in government as positive; issues that had been worked on by the government were primarily election promises of the SPD. Despite this, all polls showed that the SPD was headed for another third-place finish in the state election. The SPD's election campaign was centred on their lead candidate, Martin Dulig, who involved his family in the campaign. Dulig was also supported by former federal Chancellor Gerhard Schröder.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) was hoping to win seats in a state parliament for the first time. In both the 2013 federal election and the 2013 European elections, AfD had achieved its strongest results in Saxony (6.8% in the federal election and 10.1% in the European elections).[1]

The National Democratic Party (NPD) had won seats in Saxony in 2004 and retained them, with losses, in 2009. Polling and election results for the NPD had trended downwards since then, with most polls suggesting the party would not cross the 5% threshold and would thus lose their representation.

The Pirate Party won 1.9% of the vote in the previous state election. Despite polling in late 2011 and 2012 showing its support up to as much as 9% in Saxony, the party lost most of its popularity throughout 2013, and the party had averaged around 2% in Saxony since the end of the year.

Pre-election coalition talks

Polls suggested that the CDU would again be the largest party. Minister-President Tillich was therefore expected to lead coalition negotiations. In addition to the SPD, the Greens hoped for a coalition with the CDU, but a "black-green" coalition was considered unlikely because the Greens oppose coal mining in Saxony.[2]

Prior to the election, Tillich was open to coalitions with the FDP, the SPD, the Greens or AfD. Carsten Linnemann, the chairman of the CDU/CSU Business Association, stated that a coalition with the Greens was a viable alternative if the FDP did not obtain any seats.[3] Tillich did not rule out a coalition with AfD, though CDU general-secretary Peter Tauber spoke out against the possibility.[4]

The Left was unlikely to overtake the CDU, according to polls. The party wanted to form a coalition with the SPD in particular. The SPD, however, were sceptical about such an arrangement.[5]

The NPD was not considered in coalition discussions.

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 5th Landtag of Saxony.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2009 result
Votes (%) Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Stanislaw Tillich 40.2%
58 / 132
Linke The Left
Die Linke
Democratic socialism Rico Gebhardt 20.6%
29 / 132
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Martin Dulig 10.4%
14 / 132
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei
Classical liberalism Holger Zastrow 10.0%
14 / 132
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics Antje Hermenau
Volkmar Zschocke
6.4%
9 / 132
NPD National Democratic Party
Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Neo-Nazism Holger Szymanski 5.6%
8 / 124

Opinion polling

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
CDU Linke SPD FDP Grüne NPD Piraten AfD Others Lead
2014 state election 31 August 2014 39.4 18.9 12.4 3.8 5.7 4.9 1.1 9.7 4.1 20.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 27–28 Aug 2014 1,013 40.5 19 15 3 5.5 5 7 5 21.5
Infratest dimap 19–21 Aug 2014 1,002 40 19 14 3.5 6.5 5 7 5 21
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 18–20 Aug 2014 1,072 39 20 15 3 6 5 7 5 19
uniQma 6–10 Aug 2014 800 42 18 13 3 6 4 1 6 7 24
IM Field August 2014 1,003 43 20 14 3 7 3 5 5 23
INSA 23 Jul–1 Aug 2014 500 40 19 14 5 6 4 6 6 21
Infratest dimap 3–7 Jul 2014 1,000 42 21 13 4 7 3 7 3 21
Forsa 15 May–10 Jun 2014 1,002 42 18 15 3 6 3 8 5 24
uniQma 2–6 Jun 2014 800 45 16 13 3 6 3 2 7 5 29
Infratest dimap 24–28 Apr 2014 1,000 43 18 16 4 6 4 6 3 25
dimap 24 Feb–11 Mar 2014 2,001 45 17 15 4 6 4 6 ? 28
INSA 26 Feb–3 Mar 2014 1,003 43 22 15 2 5 1 7 5 21
uniQma 11–14 Dec 2013 800 49 15 17 2 6 1 2 6 2 32
Infratest dimap 9–15 Aug 2013 1,000 45 14 14 5 11 3 3 3 31
Emnid 1 Feb–6 Mar 2013 1,025 43 19 16 5 7 4 4 2 24
dimap 10–24 Aug 2012 2,002 44 15 16 5 8 2 4 6 28
Infratest 27 Jun–1 Jul 2012 1,000 41 19 16 4 7 3 7 3 22
Emnid 16 Jan–12 Feb 2012 1,040 43 18 14 2 10 2 9 1 25
IfM Leipzig 4–7 Oct 2011 1,001 44 17 12 2 11 3 8 ? 27
dimap 4–17 Jul 2011 2,003 43 19 12 6 11 5 4 24
aproxima 4 Apr–29 May 2011 1,000 42 21 15 6 8 3 3 21
aproxima 9 Apr–9 Jul 2010 1,000 42 23 16 5 7 4 3 19
IfM Leipzig 9–10 Jun 2010 802 40 20 16 6 12 3 3 20
2009 state election 30 August 2009 40.2 20.6 10.4 10.0 6.4 5.6 1.9 4.9 19.6

Election result

Summary of the 31 August 2014 election results for the Landtag of Saxony

Party Votes % +/- Seats +/- Seats %
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 645,515 39.4 0.8 59 1 46.8
The Left (Linke) 309,581 18.9 1.7 27 2 21.4
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 202,396 12.4 2.0 18 4 14.3
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 159,611 9.7 New 14 New 11.1
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) 93,857 5.7 0.7 8 1 6.4
National Democratic Party (NPD) 81,051 4.9 0.7 0 8 0
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 61,840 3.8 6.2 0 14 0
Free Voters (FW) 26,434 1.6 0.2 0 ±0 0
Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutz) 18,611 1.1 1.0 0 ±0 0
Pirate Party Germany (Piraten) 18,157 1.1 0.8 0 ±0 0
Others 20,547 1.3 0 ±0 0
Total 1,637,499 100.0 126 6
Voter turnout 49.1 3.1
Popular Vote
CDU
39.41%
DIE LINKE
18.91%
SPD
12.36%
AfD
9.75%
B'90/GRÜNE
5.73%
NPD
4.95%
FDP
3.78%
Other
5.11%
Landtag seats
CDU
46.83%
DIE LINKE
21.43%
SPD
14.29%
AfD
11.11%
B'90/GRÜNE
6.35%

Government formation

Due to the ejection of the FDP from the Landtag, the CDU was forced to seek new coalition partners.[6] Minister-President Tillich ruled out a coalition with AfD.[7]

The CDU held exploratory talks with the Greens and the SPD. Talks with the Greens were inconclusive; the Greens claimed that education policy and energy policy were the sticking points. Antje Hermenau, the Greens' lead candidate, then resigned on 20 September.[8]

Coalition talks began on 19 September between the CDU and the SPD. On 9 November 2014, the SPD announced that 82.2% of its members had voted in favour of the coalition agreement between the CDU and SPD.[9]

References

  1. Reinbold, Fabian (7 August 2014). "Radtour mit der AfD in Sachsen: Viel Deutschland, wenig Alternativen". Spiegel Online (in German). Retrieved 2017-09-25.
  2. Sirleschtov, Antje (16 August 2014). "Tillich schließt Koalitionsgespräche mit AfD nicht aus". Der Tagesspiegel Online (in German). ISSN 1865-2263. Retrieved 2017-09-25.
  3. "Unions-Mittelstandschef Linnemann offen für Schwarz-Grün". Focus Online (in German). 2 August 2014. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
  4. "Bundes-CDU untersagt Bündnis mit AfD". Tagesschau. 26 August 2014. Archived from the original on 27 August 2014. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
  5. Machowecz, Martin (10 July 2014). "Rot-rote Koalition: Gehen die zusammen?". Zeit Online (in German). Archived from the original on 23 February 2017. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
  6. "German anti-euro party enters state parliament in Saxony elections". Deutsche Welle. 31 August 2014. Retrieved 2017-09-25.
  7. Brown, Stephen; Breidthardt, Annika (31 August 2014). "Merkel's conservatives set to hold Saxony, eurosceptics make breakthrough". Reuters U.K. Retrieved 2017-09-25.
  8. "Sächsische Grüne verlieren ihr Aushängeschild". stern (in German). 20 September 2014. Retrieved 2017-09-25.
  9. "Mitgliedervotum". SPD Sachsen (in German). 7 October 2014. Retrieved 2017-09-25.
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