2015 Madeiran regional election

A regional election was held in Madeira on 29 March 2015, to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election was the first in which the former President of the Region, Alberto João Jardim, was not on the ballot as he earlier stated that he would step down as President and leader of the PSD-Madeira in January 2015.[1] On 29 December 2014, the PSD-Madeira elected Miguel Albuquerque as the new president of the party's regional section.[2] After winning the presidency, Albuquerque stated that he would not assume the Presidency of the Government without an election,[3] so Alberto João Jardim asked President Aníbal Cavaco Silva to dissolve the Parliament and call an election, which was scheduled for 29 March.[4]

2015 Madeiran regional election
29 March 2015
47 seats to the Legislative Assembly of Madeira
24 seats needed for a majority
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Miguel Albuquerque José Manuel Rodrigues Victor Freitas
Party PSD CDS–PP PS
Last election 25 seats, 48.6% 9 seats, 17.6% 11 seats, 22.4%[lower-alpha 1]
Seats won 24 7 6
Seat change 1 2 5
Popular vote 56,569 17,489 14,574
Percentage 44.4% 13.7% 11.4%
Swing 4.2 pp 3.9 pp 11.0 pp
The most voted party in each municipality.
President before election

Alberto João Jardim
PSD

 President-designate

Miguel Albuquerque
PSD

The campaign for the regional legislative election in Madeira ran from 15 to 27 March 2015.

The results showed that the Social Democrats were reelected for the 11th time in a row and, again, with an absolute majority of 24 seats, against the 25 seats won in 2011. The People's Party was again the second most voted party and the coalition between the Socialists and other smaller parties called Change suffered a huge defeat by winning fewer votes and seats compared to the combined total of the parties in 2011. Together for the People was the surprise of the election winning 10.3% of the vote and winning 5 seats. The Unitary Democratic Coalition increase their result by one MP and the Left Bloc returned to the regional parliament with 2 seats.[5]

The turnout in these elections was the lowest ever, with 49.6% of voters casting a ballot.

Electoral system

The 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region.[6]

Parties

The parties that will contest the election and their leaders, are:[7]

Opinion polling

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Opinion polls
Date(s) Conducted Polling Firm PSD CDS-PP PS[lower-alpha 1] PTP[lower-alpha 1] CDU PND PAN[lower-alpha 1] MPT[lower-alpha 1] BE JPP Others Lead
29 March 2015 Election Results 44.4 13.7 11.4 w. PS 5.5 2.1 w. PS w. PS 3.8 10.3 8.8 30.6
21–23 Mar Universidade Católica 49.0 11.0 18.0 w. PS 5.0 2.0 w. PS w. PS 3.0 6.0 6.5 31.0
16–18 Mar Eurosondagem 46.7 12.5 19.5 w. PS 4.8 1.6 w. PS w. PS 2.5 5.5 6.9 27.2
9–12 Mar Eurosondagem 43.3 11.1 22.5 w. PS 4.8 1.7 w. PS w. PS 2.2 7.7 6.7 20.8
2015
11–14 Nov Eurosondagem 33.1 16.9 26.6 4.6 5.5 1.8 2.6 2.3 2.5 Did not exist 4.1 6.5
3–5 Nov Eurosondagem 30.9 17.0 27.0 5.5 5.2 2.3 2.1 1.7 2.5 5.8 3.9
18–22 Jul Eurosondagem 32.1 17.9 22.6 3.6 5.2 2.2 2.6 5.7 2.1 6.0 9.5
25 May 2014 EP Elections 31.0 w. PSD 22.6 6.6 4.8 2.3 3.3 10.0 3.7 15.7 8.4
8–14 Jan Eurosondagem 33.9 20.1 25.5 4.0 5.3 2.1 1.3 1.2 2.2 4.4 8.4
2014
29 September 2013 Local Elections 34.8 13.0 25.8 0.7 5.3 N/A 1.2 1.6 0.4 17.2 9.0
2013
24–25 May Eurosondagem 43.9 21.2 13.5 4.4 3.9 3.7 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.1 22.7
2012
9 October 2011 Election Results 48.6 17.6 11.5 6.9 3.8 3.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 2.6 31.0

Seats

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 24 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira.

Date(s) Conducted Polling Firm PSD CDS-PP PS[lower-alpha 1] PTP[lower-alpha 1] CDU PND PAN[lower-alpha 1] MPT[lower-alpha 1] BE JPP Others
29 March 2015 Election Results 24 7 6 w. PS 2 1 w. PS w. PS 2 5 0
21–23 Mar Universidade Católica 23 / 27 4 / 6 8 / 10 w. PS 2 / 3 0 / 1 w. PS w. PS 1 / 2 2 / 3 0 / 1
16–18 Mar Eurosondagem 24 / 25 6 / 7 10 / 11 w. PS 2 0 / 1 w. PS w. PS 1 2 / 3 0
9–12 Mar Eurosondagem 22 / 23 5 / 6 11 / 12 w. PS 2 0 / 1 w. PS w. PS 1 4 0
2015
9 October 2011 Election Results 25 9 6 3 1 1 1 1 0 Did not exist 0

Summary of votes and seats
 Summary of the 29 March 2015 Legislative Assembly of Madeira elections results
Parties Votes % ±pp swing MPs MPs %/
votes %
2011 2015 ± % ±
Social Democratic 56,57444.364.22524151.062.11.15
People's 17,48813.713.997214.894.31.09
Change Coalition[A] 14,57311.4311.0116512.7710.61.12
Together for the People 13,11410.28N/AN/A5N/A10.64N/A1.03
Unitary Democratic Coalition[B] 7,0605.541.81214.252.10.77
Left Bloc 4,8493.802.10224.254.31.12
New Democracy 2,6352.071.21102.130.01.04
Portuguese Workers' Communist 2,1371.67N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
Socialist Alternative Movement 1,7151.34N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
National Renovator 1,0520.82N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
Citizen Platform[C] 9030.71N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
Total valid 122,100 95.74 1.6 47 47 0 100.00 0.0 —
Blank ballots 1,1160.870.2
Invalid ballots 4,3233.391.5
Total 127,539 100.00
Registered voters/turnout 257,23249.587.8
A Coalition between the PS, PTP, PAN and the MPT. The 11 seats from 2011 are the sum of PS, PTP, PAN and MPT seats.
B Portuguese Communist Party (2 MPs) and "The Greens" (0 MPs) ran in coalition.
C People's Monarchist Party (0 MPs) and Democratic Party of the Atlantic (0 MPs) ran in coalition.
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PSD
 
 44.36%
CDS-PP
 
 13.71%
CM (PS-PTP-PAN-MPT)
 
 11.43%
JPP
 
 10.28%
CDU
 
 5.54%
BE
 
 3.80%
PND
 
 2.07%
PCTP/MRPP
 
 1.67%
MAS
 
 1.34%
Others
 
 1.53%
Blank/Invalid
 
 4.26%
Parliamentary seats
PSD
 
 51.06%
CDS-PP
 
 14.89%
CM (PS-PTP-PAN-MPT)
 
 12.67%
JPP
 
 10.64%
CDU
 
 4.25%
BE
 
 4.25%
PND
 
 2.13%

See also

Notes
  1. PS, PTP, PAN and MPT will contest the election in a electoral coalition called Change. The polling for the coalition wil be shown in the PS column.

References
  1. Alberto João Jardim anuncia abandono da política em 2015, TSF, 24 November 2012. Retrieved 22 June 2014.
  2. Miguel Albuquerque é o novo presidente do PSD/Madeira, Diário de Notícias, 29 December 2014. Retrieved 29 December 2014.
  3. Jardim escreveu, Passos ligou. Albuquerque é o novo líder do PSD-Madeira - sem inseguranças, Expresso, 29 December 2014. Retrieved 29 December 2014.
  4. Eleições na Madeira marcadas para 29 de Março, Radio Renascença, 28 January 2015. Retrieved 28 January 2015.
  5. Madeira. PSD ganha maioria absoluta por pouco , Expresso, 29 March 2015. Retrieved 29 March 2015.
  6. Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição para a Assembleia Legislativa da Região Autónoma da Madeira 2007
  7. Sorteio das Candidaturas - ALRAM 2015, Comissão Nacional de Eleições, 17 February 2015. Retrieved 20 February 2015.
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