2019 Madeiran regional election

Regional elections were held on 22 September 2019[1] to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira in Portugal. All 47 members of the Assembly were up for election.

2019 Madeiran regional elections
22 September 2019
47 seats to the Legislative Assembly of Madeira
24 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout55.5% 5.8 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Miguel Albuquerque Paulo Cafôfo[lower-alpha 1] Rui Barreto
Party PSD PS CDS–PP
Leader since 10 January 2015 19 January 2018
(PRGM candidate)		 22 July 2018
Last election 24 seats, 44.4% 5 seats[lower-alpha 2] 7 seats, 13.1%
Seats before 24 5 7
Seats won 21 19 3
Seat change 3 14 4
Popular vote 56,449 51,207 8,246
Percentage 39.4% 35.8% 5.8%
Swing 4.9 pp [lower-alpha 2] 7.9 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Élvio Sousa Edgar Silva
Party JPP CDU
Leader since 27 January 2015 1996
Last election 5 seats, 10.3% 2 seats, 5.5%
Seats before 5 2
Seats won 3 1
Seat change 2 1
Popular vote 7,830 2,577
Percentage 5.5% 1.8%
Swing 4.8 pp 3.7 pp
The most voted party in each parish.
President before election

Miguel Albuquerque
PSD

 President-designate

Miguel Albuquerque
PSD

The Social Democratic Party continued their 43-year streak of being the largest party in the Madeiran legislature, but failed to hold on to their absolute majority, and would require a coalition for the first time to remain in power. The party won 39% of the votes, a decrease of 5%, and lost 3 members of the regional party. In the electoral map, the PSD lost the two biggest cities in Madeira, Funchal and Santa Cruz to the PS, although by less than 2% of the vote. Overall, the PSD still won the majority of municipalities, obtaining victory in 7 of the 11 in Madeira.

The Socialist Party surged in these elections, polling just two seats and 3.6% behind the PSD. It was the best showing of the PS in a regional election in Madeira going back to the first regional elections in 1976, two years after the fall of the dictatorship. The party won 4 of the 11 municipalities in Madeira. The People's Party lost a lot of votes and seats in these elections, winning just 3 seats and 5.8% of the vote. Together for the People (JPP) also suffered a big setback by losing 2 members and almost 5% of the votes. It even failed to obtain second place in their traditional bastion of Santa Cruz, falling behind the PS and PSD. The Unitary Democratic Coalition lost 1 of their 2 seats, and lost 3.7% of votes compared to 2015. The Left Bloc was wiped from the regional Assembly completely and only won 1.7% of the votes. These elections were fought mainly between the PSD and PS, and many left-wing voters opted to vote tactically for the PS to prevent another PSD victory, but by doing so, they hurt the chances of smaller left-wing parties and alliances such as the Left Bloc and CDU.[2]

The turnout in these elections increased compared to the previous one for the first time in over a decade, with 55.5% of voters casting a ballot, compared with the record-low 49.6% in the 2015 elections.

Electoral system

The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region.[3]

Parties

Current composition

The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.

Name Ideology Leader 2015 result
Votes (%) Seats
PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social-Democrata		 Liberal conservatism Miguel Albuquerque 44.4%
24 / 47
CDS-PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático Social – Partido Popular		 Conservatism Rui Barreto 13.1%
7 / 47
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista		 Social democracy Emanuel Câmara[lower-alpha 1]
Paulo Cafôfo		 11.4%
[lower-alpha 2]
5 / 47
PTP Portuguese Labour Party
Partido Trabalhista Português		 Social democracy Quintino Costa
1 / 47
JPP Together for the People
Juntos pelo Povo		 Centrism Élvio Sousa 10.3%
5 / 47
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português		 Communism Edgar Silva 5.5%
[lower-alpha 3]
2 / 47
B.E. Left Bloc
Bloco de Esquerda		 Democratic socialism Paulino Ascenção 3.8%
2 / 47
Ind. Independent
Independente		 Gil Canha (elected for the now extinct PND)
1 / 47

Parties running in the election

17 parties are in the ballot for the 2019 Madeira regional election. The parties that will contest the election and their lead candidates, are: (parties/coalitions are ordered by the way they will appear on the ballot)[4]

Campaign period

Party slogans
Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs
PSD « Cumprir no rumo certo » "Delivering on the right track" [15]
CDS–PP « Este é o momento » "This is the moment" [16]
PS « Coragem para mudar » "Courage to change" [17]
JPP « Dar voz aos Madeirenses » "Giving voice to Madeirans" [18]
BE « A Madeira para todos » "Madeira for all" [19]
CDU « CDU, o voto que conta » "CDU, the vote that counts" [20]

Candidates' debates
2019 Madeiran regional election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     I  Invitee    P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-invitee 
PSD
Albuquerque		 PS
Cafôfo		 CDS–PP
Barreto		 BE
Ascenção		 CDU
Silva		 JPP
Sousa		 Refs
19 Sep RTP Madeira, RTP3 Gil Rosa P P P P P P [21]

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Polling

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout JPP CDU PTP PAN MPT O Lead
2019 Regional Election 22 Sep 2019 N/A 55.5% 39.4
21		 5.8
3		 35.8
19		 5.5
3		 1.8
1		 1.7
0		 1.0
0		 1.5
0		 0.4
0		 0.5
0		 6.6
0		 3.6
UCP-CESOP 22 Sep 2019 6,000 ? 37–41
19/23		 5–7
2/3		 34–38
17/21		 3–5
1/2		 1–3
0/1		 1–3
0/1		 - 1–2
0/1		 - - - 3
Eurosondagem 15–17 Sep 2019 1,525 ? 36.0
19		 8.0
4		 33.6
17/18		 2.5
1		 4.5
2		 4.0
2		 0.7
0		 ?
0/1		 - ?
0/1		 10.7
0/1		 2.4
Intercampus 2–16 Sep 2019 1,503 ? 39.0
21		 9.3
5		 33.1
17		 3.4
1		 3.9
2		 2.2
1		 - - - - 9.1
0		 5.9
UCP-CESOP 14–15 Sep 2019 1,375 ? 38
19/23		 5
2/3		 29
14/18		 4
2/3		 3
1/2		 5
2/3		 - 2
1		 1.5
0/1		 1.5
0/1		 11
0		 9
Eurosondagem 21–24 Jul 2019 1,519 ? 33.3
18/19		 7.1
3/4		 31.9
17/18		 4.2
2		 4.0
2		 6.9
3/4		 0.5
0		 - - - 12.0
0/1		 1.4
2019 EP Elections 26 May 2019 N/A 38.5 37.2 8.1 25.8 N/A 3.0 5.3 1.3 3.7 N/A 1.6 14.0 11.4
CDS-PP internal 8 Feb 2019 ? ? 36.0
19/20		 8.0
4/5		 33.0
18/19		 4.0
2		 3.0
1		 3.0
1		 2.0
0/1		 - - - 11.0
0		 3.0
Eurosondagem 14–17 Jan 2019 1,510 ? 34.7
18/19		 8.0
4		 36.9
19/20		 4.8
2		 3.6
1/2		 4.0
2		 0.9
0		 - - - 7.1
0		 2.2
Eurosondagem 26–28 Nov 2018 748 ? 34.2
18		 10.6
5		 33.9
18		 6.5
3		 3.4
1		 4.0
2		 1.6
0		 - - - 5.8
0		 0.3
Intercampus 21–26 Nov 2018 400 ? ?
19		 ?
2		 ?
23		 ?
2		 ?
1		 ?
0		 ?
0		 ?
0		 ?
0		 ?
0		 ?
0		 ?
Eurosondagem 19–24 Jul 2018 1,018 ? 36.3
18/19		 7.1
3/4		 35.7
18/19		 6.0
3		 4.8
2		 3.9
2		 1.2
0		 - - [lower-alpha 5] 5.0
0		 0.6
Eurosondagem 5–7 Feb 2018 1,018 ? 38.5
20/21		 5.9
3		 33.2
17/18		 6.8
3		 3.1
1		 4.9
2		 1.4
0		 - - 6.2
0		 5.3
Eurosondagem 22–24 Oct 2017 1,017 ? 36.3
19		 6.0
3		 33.6
17		 6.5
3		 4.5
2		 4.1
2		 2.1
1		 - - 6.9
0		 2.7
2017 Local Elections 1 Oct 2017 N/A 54.2 33.6 9.1 29.1 10.2 2.4 0.7 1.7 N/A 0.6 12.6 4.5
Eurosondagem 7–9 Jun 2017 1,010 ? 40.4
21/22		 5.4
2/3		 30.0
15/16		 4.7
2		 4.9
2		 5.9
2		 1.9
2		 - - 6.8
0		 10.4
Eurosondagem 14–16 Mar 2017 1,017 ? 38.0
20/21		 8.6
4		 27.2
14/15		 4.1
2		 5.0
2/3		 6.93 1.3
–		 - - 8.90 10.8
2015 Legislative Election 4 Oct 2015 N/A 48.9 37.8 6.0 20.9 6.9 3.6 10.7 1.4 1.8 1.4 13.5 16.9
2015 Regional Election 29 Mar 2015 N/A 49.6 44.4
24		 13.7
7		 11.4[lower-alpha 2]
5		 10.3
5		 5.5
2		 3.8
2		 [lower-alpha 2]
1		 [lower-alpha 2]
0		 [lower-alpha 2]
0		 10.9
1		 30.7

Results

On election night, the centre-right PSD and national-conservative CDS said they were willing to form a coalition government.[22]

 Summary of the 22 September 2019 Legislative Assembly of Madeira elections results
Parties Votes % ±pp swing MPs MPs %/
votes %
2015 2019 ± % ±
Social Democratic 56,44939.424.92421344.686.41.13
Socialist 51,20735.76[lower-alpha 2]5191440.4329.81.13
People's 8,2465.768.07346.388.51.11
Together for the People 7,8305.474.85326.384.31.17
Unitary Democratic Coalition 2,5771.803.72112.132.11.18
Left Bloc 2,4891.742.12020.004.20.0
People–Animals–Nature 2,0951.46[lower-alpha 2]0000.000.00.0
United Party of Retirees and Pensioners 1,7661.23N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
React, Include, Recycle 1,7491.22N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
Labour 1,4261.00[lower-alpha 2]1010.002.10.0
Alliance 7660.53N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
Liberal Initiative 7620.53N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
CHEGA 6190.43N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
Democratic Republican 6030.42N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
Portuguese Workers' Communist 6010.421.30000.000.00.0
Earth 5070.35[lower-alpha 2]0000.000.00.0
National Renovator 2740.190.60000.000.00.0
Total valid 139,966 97.74 2.1 47 47 0 100.00 0.0 —
Blank ballots 7000.490.5
Invalid ballots 2,5341.771.6
Total 143,200 100.00
Registered voters/turnout 258,00555.505.8
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PSD
 
 39.42%
PS
 
 35.76%
CDS-PP
 
 5.76%
JPP
 
 5.47%
CDU
 
 1.80%
BE
 
 1.74%
PAN
 
 1.46%
PURP
 
 1.23%
RIR
 
 1.22%
PTP
 
 1.00%
Alliance
 
 0.53%
IL
 
 0.53%
Others
 
 1.81%
Blank/Invalid
 
 2.26%
Parliamentary seats
PSD
 
 44.68%
PS
 
 40.43%
CDS-PP
 
 6.38%
JPP
 
 6.38%
CDU
 
 2.13%

Maps
  • Most voted political force by parish.

See also

Notes
  1. The leader of the PS-Madeira is Emanuel Câmara, but he has nominated the mayor of Funchal, Paulo Cafôfo, as the PS candidate for the Presidency of the Madeira Government.
  2. PS, PTP, PAN and MPT contested the 2015 election in a electoral coalition called Change which received 11.4% of the vote.
  3. The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 2015 election jointly as the Unitary Democratic Coalition, and won a combined 5.5% of the vote and elected 2 MPs to parliament.
  4. Roberto Vieira is a former Earth Party (MPT) member.
  5. Did not exist.

References
  1. "Marcelo anuncia eleições legislativas em 6 de outubro", Sapo 24, 7 December 2018. Retrieved 7 December 2018.
  2. PSD ganha eleições na Madeira mas perde maioria absoluta. PS dispara, Jornal de Negócios, 22 September 2019. Retrieved 23 September 2019.
  3. Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição para a Assembleia Legislativa da Região Autónoma da Madeira 2007
  4. Sorteio das Candidaturas - ALRAM 2019, Comissão Nacional de Eleições, 14 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  5. Legislativas 2019: Filipe Rebelo é candidato do PDR às regionais na Madeira e às legislativas, Sapo24, 23 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  6. Eleições na Madeira: Chega diz que vai ser governo na região “custe o que custar”, Sapo24, 19 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  7. Eleições na Madeira: PNR defende redução de deputados de 47 para 30, Sapo24, 19 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  8. Eleições na Madeira: PAN ressurge na região e quer eleger dois deputados, Sapo24, 20 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  9. Eleições na Madeira: Aliança considera “estruturante” a eleição de um grupo parlamentar, Sapo24, 20 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  10. Eleições na Madeira: MPT quer ressurgir e eleger representação parlamentar, Sapo24, 20 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  11. Eleições na Madeira: PCTP/MRPP assume-se como o “partido dos pobres” e contra os “usurpadores” da autonomia, Sapo24, 21 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  12. Iniciativa Liberal quer eliminar cargo de Representante da República, Sapo24, 23 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  13. Eleições na Madeira: PURP promete “envolver as pessoas” e “lutar ferozmente” contra os lóbis, Sapo24, 22 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  14. Eleições na Madeira: RIR estreia-se com receio de ser prejudicado por candidato ter sido do MPT, Sapo24, 22 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  15. "ELEIÇÕES REGIONAIS DA MADEIRA DE 2019 – PSD". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  16. "ELEIÇÕES REGIONAIS DA MADEIRA DE 2019 – CDS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  17. "ELEIÇÕES REGIONAIS DA MADEIRA DE 2019 – PS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  18. "ELEIÇÕES REGIONAIS DA MADEIRA DE 2019 – JPP". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  19. "ELEIÇÕES REGIONAIS DA MADEIRA DE 2019 – BE". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  20. "ELEIÇÕES REGIONAIS DA MADEIRA DE 2019 – CDU". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  21. "Eleições da Madeira - Debates". RTP Madeira (in Portuguese). 19 September 2019. Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  22. Miguel Albuquerque admite "coligação de governo" com CDS-PP , Jornal de Negócios, 22 September 2019. Retrieved 23 September 2019.
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