2018 Longman by-election
A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Longman took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Susan Lamb.[1]
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The Division of Longman (Qld) in the House of Representatives | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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Registered | 111,652 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Turnout | 84.26% ![]() | |||||||||||||||||||||
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In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Labor to retain the electorate with an increased margin.[2]
The Liberal National Party's failure to win this seat for the ruling Coalition has been cited for the downfall of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull almost a month later on August 24.[3]
Background
Due to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing parliamentary eligibility crisis, Lamb and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day,[1] while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons.[4] The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history.[5] The others are:
Mark Latham, Labor leader between December 2003 and January 2005, voiced a robocall authorised by Pauline Hanson, in an attempt to discourage Labor voting and instead encouraged minor party voting.[6]
Key dates
Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[7]
- Thursday, 10 May 2018 – Speaker acceptance of resignation
- Friday, 15 June 2018 – Issue of writ
- Friday, 22 June 2018 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm)
- Thursday, 5 July 2018 – Close of nominations (12 noon)
- Friday, 6 July 2018 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon)
- Tuesday, 10 July 2018 – Start of early voting
- Saturday, 28 July 2018 – Polling day (8am to 6pm)
- Friday, 10 August 2018 – Last day for receipt of postal votes
- Sunday, 23 September 2018 – Last day for return of writs
Candidates
Candidates (11) in ballot paper order[8] | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Background | |
Liberal Democrats | Lloyd Russell | Business consultant.[9] | |
Australia First | Jim Saleam | Party leader. Contested Lindsay at the 2016 election and Cook at the 2013 election.[8] | |
Democratic Labour | Gregory Bell | Truck driver.[8] | |
Independent | Jackie Perkins | Self-employed mobile veterinarian.[10] | |
Science | James Noonan | Criminology and criminal justice graduate.[11] | |
One Nation | Matthew Stephen | Caboolture businessman. Ran in Sandgate at the 2017 state election.[12] | |
People | John Reece | Ran as an independent candidate in Longman at the 2010 federal election.[13] | |
Labor | Susan Lamb | Previous MP for Longman elected at the 2016 federal election.[14] | |
Liberal National | Trevor Ruthenberg | One-term MP for Kallangur elected at the 2012 state election.[15] | |
Country | Blair Verrier | Certified Practising Accountant (CPA).[16] | |
Greens | Gavin Behrens | Caboolture father and IT professional. Ran in Morayfield at the 2017 state election.[17] |
Polling
Date | Firm | Commissioned by | Sample | MoE[18] | Primary vote | TPP vote | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LNP | ONP | GRN | OTH | UND | ALP | LNP | ||||||
24−26 July 2018 | Newspoll | The Australian[19] | 1015 | ±3.1% | 40% | 36% | 14% | 5% | 5% | − | 51% | 49% | |
17−19 July 2018 | ReachTEL | Courier Mail[20][21] | 578 | ±4.1% | 35.8% | 37.9% | 13.9% | (OTH) | 4.3% | 3.9% | 49% | 51% | |
26 June 2018 | ReachTEL | Courier Mail[22][23] | 814 | ±3.4% | 39.0% | 35.5% | 14.7% | (OTH) | 6.6% | 4.1% | 49% | 51% | |
21 June 2018 | ReachTEL | Australia Institute[24] | 727 | ±3.6% | 39.1% | 34.9% | 14.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 50% | 50% | |
2 June 2018 | ReachTEL | Sky News[25] | >800 | ±3.5% | 35% | 38% | (OTH) | 2% | 14% | 11% | 48% | 52% | |
10 May 2018 | ReachTEL | Australia Institute[26] | 1277 | ±2.7% | 32.5% | 36.7% | 15.1% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 47% | 53% | |
2016 election | 35.4% | 39.0% | 9.4% | 4.4% | 11.8% | 50.8% | 49.2% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Labor | Susan Lamb | 35,203 | 39.84 | +4.45 | |
Liberal National | Trevor Ruthenberg | 26,170 | 29.61 | −9.40 | |
One Nation | Matthew Stephen | 14,061 | 15.91 | +6.50 | |
Greens | Gavin Behrens | 4,264 | 4.83 | +0.44 | |
Independent | Jackie Perkins | 2,379 | 2.69 | +2.69 | |
Liberal Democrats | Lloyd Russell | 1,762 | 1.99 | +1.99 | |
Country | Blair Verrier | 1,387 | 1.57 | +1.57 | |
Democratic Labour | Gregory Bell | 1,043 | 1.18 | +1.18 | |
Science | James Noonan | 970 | 1.10 | +1.10 | |
Australia First | Jim Saleam | 709 | 0.80 | +0.80 | |
People's Party | John Reece | 420 | 0.48 | +0.48 | |
Total formal votes | 88,368 | 93.93 | +2.46 | ||
Informal votes | 5,707 | 6.07 | −2.46 | ||
Turnout | 94,075 | 84.26 | −7.42 | ||
Two-party-preferred result | |||||
Labor | Susan Lamb | 48,116 | 54.45 | +3.66 | |
Liberal National | Trevor Ruthenberg | 40,252 | 45.55 | −3.66 | |
Labor hold | Swing | +3.66 | |||
See also
References
- "Citizenship drama flares again, with four MPs and one senator on the way out after High Court ruling: ABC 9 May 2018". Archived from the original on 9 May 2018. Retrieved 10 May 2018.
- "July 2018 Federal By-elections: Antony Green ABC". Archived from the original on 28 July 2018. Retrieved 28 July 2018.
- "How ScoMo used hapless Dutton to outfox Turnbull". News Corp. 2 September 2018. Archived from the original on 2 September 2018. Retrieved 10 April 2020.
- "Federal Member for Perth Tim Hammond quits politics for family, triggering WA by-election: ABC 2 May 2018". Archived from the original on 16 June 2018. Retrieved 29 June 2018.
- "Mark your calendars, the date has been set for five by-elections". ABC News. 24 May 2018. Archived from the original on 24 May 2018. Retrieved 24 May 2018.
- "One Nation unleashes Latham robocall ahead of Queensland by-election". ABC News. 9 July 2018. Archived from the original on 12 July 2018. Retrieved 9 July 2018.
- "2018 Longman by-election". Australian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 17 June 2018. Retrieved 17 June 2018.
- "2018 Longman by-election guide: Antony Green ABC". Archived from the original on 30 June 2018. Retrieved 23 June 2018.
- "Liberal Democrats QLD". Liberal Democratic Party. 6 June 2018.
- Dr Jackie Perkins: Facebook
- "Science Party names candidates for 2018 by-elections: 12 June 2018". Archived from the original on 15 June 2018. Retrieved 15 June 2018.
- "Matthew Stephen named as One Nation's Longman candidate". Courier-Mail. 10 May 2018. Retrieved 12 May 2018.
- "By-election 2018 endorsed candidates". Australian People's Party. Archived from the original on 7 March 2018. Retrieved 30 May 2018.
- "Labor's quadruple edge in the citizenship by-elections: Candidates, time, history and money". ABC. 10 May 2018. Archived from the original on 10 May 2018. Retrieved 10 May 2018.
- "Ex-Newman MP Trevor Ruthenberg gets the nod to fight for Longman". The Australian. 22 May 2018.
- "2018 Longman by-election: countryparty.org.au". Archived from the original on 19 June 2018. Retrieved 19 June 2018.
- Gavin Behrens: greens.org.au
- "Margin of error calculator". Archived from the original on 29 July 2018. Retrieved 29 July 2018.
- Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Longman and Braddon, 28 July 2018, archived from the original on 28 July 2018, retrieved 28 July 2018
- Longman by-election: ReachTEL poll indicates LNP will win - Courier Mail 21 July 2018
- "Super Saturday YouGov Galaxy and ReachTEL polls: Poll Bludger 23 July 2018". Archived from the original on 28 July 2018. Retrieved 28 July 2018.
- Longman by-election: Seat slipping away from Labor's Susan Lamb - Courier Mail 27 June 2018
- Longman ReachTEL poll exclusive: Key electorate fires warning shot at Shorten - Courier Mail 27 June 2018
- "Longman and Mayo: New Polling on Company Tax Cuts and Voter Priorities for Government Revenue - The Australia Institute 24 June 2018". Archived from the original on 24 June 2018. Retrieved 24 June 2018.
- ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman, 3 June 2018, archived from the original on 21 November 2018, retrieved 3 June 2018
- "Longman Polling" (PDF), The Australia Institute, 11 May 2018, archived (PDF) from the original on 12 May 2018, retrieved 12 May 2018
- "2018 Longman by-election results: AEC". Archived from the original on 25 April 2019. Retrieved 30 August 2018.
- "2018 Longman by-election results: ABC". Archived from the original on 30 June 2018. Retrieved 23 June 2018.
External links
- 2018 Longman by-election website: Australian Electoral Commission
- 2018 Longman by-election guide: Antony Green ABC
- 2018 Longman by-election guide: The Poll Bludger
- 2018 Longman by-election guide: The Tally Room
- By-elections aplenty: The Poll Bludger 10 May 2018
- Super Saturday July 28: The Poll Bludger 24 May 2018