2019 Afghan presidential election

Presidential elections were held in Afghanistan on 28 September 2019.[3] According to preliminary results, which runner-up Abdullah Abdullah appealed against, incumbent Ashraf Ghani was re-elected with 50.64% of the vote. After delays over disputed votes, Ashraf Ghani was declared the winner in the final results on 18 February 2020.[4] Abdullah Abdullah rejected the results and moved to set up his own parallel government and separate inauguration.[5] However, Ghani was officially sworn in for a second term on 9 March 2020.[6][7] The ensuing political crisis was not resolved until 16 May 2020, when Ghani and Abdullah signed a power-sharing deal in which Ghani would remain president and Abdullah would lead the peace talks with the Taliban when they start.[8]

2019 Afghanistan presidential election

28 September 2019
 
Nominee Ashraf Ghani Abdullah Abdullah
Party Independent National Coalition
Running mate Amrullah Saleh
Sarwar Danish[1][2]
Enayatullah Babur Farahmand
Asadullah Sadati[1][2]
Popular vote 923,592 720,841
Percentage 50.64% 39.52%

Map of the results of the election

President before election

Ashraf Ghani
Independent

Elected President

Ashraf Ghani
Independent

Background

The elections were originally scheduled for 20 April, but the Independent Election Commission announced on 26 December 2018 that they would be postponed until 20 July,[9][10] in order to resolve problems that became apparent during the October 2018 parliamentary elections. The additional time will be used to verify voter lists and train election workers on the new biometric identification system. On 20 March 2019, the IEC once again delayed the election, this time by two months from 20 July to 28 September. A spokesman blamed the delay on changes in election laws along with management and technical problems − the presidential vote then coincided with local council votes and delayed parliamentary elections in Ghazni Province.[11]

Electoral system

Presidential elections in Afghanistan are conducted using a two-round system. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the first round, a second round is held featuring the top two candidates from the first round.[12]

Campaign

One of the leading candidates, Mohammad Hanif Atmar, suspended his campaign in August 2019. Atmar's campaign said that the suspension was due to the poor security situation and the ongoing peace process.[13] The Taliban carried out attacks to disrupt the campaign. On 17 September 2019, a suicide bomber attacked the campaign rally of President Ashraf Ghani, killing 26 people and wounding 42. Less than an hour later, the Taliban carried out another suicide bomb attack near the US Embassy and the Afghan Defense Ministry, killing 22 people and wounding around 38.[14]

Voting

On 28 September 2019, several people headed to cast their vote despite the direct threats to the civilians from the Taliban. However, the turnout was a historical low, where only around 1.6 million showed up from the 9.7 million registered voters.[15] Despite low turnout, voting during election day was described by Reuters as being held in a "relative calm" situation, with 3 deaths and 37 injuries occurring due to "small-scale" Taliban attacks.[16] Al Jazeera also noted that in spite of the low voter turnout, violence was only "sporadic."[12] However, a tally held by The New York Times, which was based on conversations with local officials, found a death toll of "at least 30 security personnel and 10 civilians", and a number of "at least 40 security forces and 150 civilians" injured—which, according to the Times, was "much higher than the official reports, but in line with the average daily toll of the country’s long-running war."[17] Reports of low casualties were also backed by The Washington Post and Arab News.[18][19] Arab News journalist Sayed Salahuddin even stated that "the death toll was lower than on previous election days" and that conversations with Afghan residents suggested that "there was less violence than at last year’s parliamentary election."[18] Salahuddin also stated that "at some polling centers, security forces outnumbered voters."[18]

The election commission also resorted to biometric voter verification machines for the first time, which took the fingerprints and picture of every voter and recorded the time they cast their ballot. The technical system was opted to combat the growing fraudulent instances during elections in Afghanistan.[20]

Violence, Taliban threats, and widespread allegations of mismanagement and abuse marred the election. Turnout on election day was low.[21]

Candidates

There were 18 presidential candidates:[22][23]

Name Party affiliation Notes
Ashraf Ghani Incumbent President
Abdullah Abdullah National Coalition of Afghanistan Incumbent Chief Executive
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin former Prime Minister, former warlord, and current leader of Hezb-e Islami
Rahmatullah Nabil former Head of the National Directorate of Security
Noorullah Jalili
Faramarz Tamanna former Director General of the Center for Strategic Studies (Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
Shaida Mohammad Abdali Ambassador to India
Ahmad Wali Massoud
Noor Rahman Liwal IT expert and businessman[24]
Mohammad Shohab Hakimi
Mohammad Hakim Tursun
Abdul Latif Pedram Member of the Parliament
Nur ul-Haq Ulumi National United Party of Afghanistan former Minister of Interior
Mohammad Ibrahim Alokozai
Enayatullah Hafiz
Mohammad Hanif Atmar Truth and Justice former National Security Adviser and Minister of Interior (campaign suspended)
Ghulam Faruq Nejrabi
Zalmai Rassoul former Minister of Foreign Affairs (campaign suspended, supporting Ashraf Ghani)[25]

Opinion polls

The 2019 presidential election was the first in Afghanistan where opinion polls were funded and conducted by Afghan institutions.

Pollster Date(s) administered Sample Ghani Abdullah Hekmatyar Tamana Nabil Pedram Hanif Atmar Other Undecided Lead
Ind NCA Ind Ind Ind Ind Ind
OSRA 5 August–28 September 2019 11,337 40.9% 7.0% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 1.5% 20.4% 33.9%
OSRA 30 March–25 May 2019 2,405 35.1% 5.8% 2.5% 1.2% 3.3% 3.0% 43.3% 29.3%
Preliminary results[26] 22 Dec 2019 1,824,401 50.6% 39.5% 3.9% 1.0% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1%

Results

On 27 October 2019 Hawa Alam Nuristani, chief of the Independent Election Commission (IEC), announced that the preliminary presidential election results would be made public on 14 November, and that consultations with the other election commissioners which were taken to make the results more transparent had been completed.[27] She also stated that the publication of the election results was delayed for two reasons: an attempt to hack the commission's server and the picking of the digital lock of the commission's digital center.[27]

On 13 November, the commission announced that the results were being delayed a second time, indefinitely.[28]

The preliminary results were announced on 22 December,[29] and the definitive ones on 18 February 2020.

Candidate Votes %
Ashraf Ghani923,59250.64
Abdullah Abdullah720,84139.52
Gulbedin Hekmatyar70,2413.85
Rahmatullah Nabil33,9191.86
Faramarz Tamana18,0630.99
Sayed Noorullah Jalili15,5190.85
Abdul Latif Pedram12,6080.69
Enayatullah Hafiz11,3750.62
Mohammad Hakim Torsan6,5000.36
Ahmad Wali Masood3,9420.22
Mohammad Shahab Hakimi3,3180.18
Ghulam Farooq Najrabi1,6080.09
Mohammad Hanif Atmar1,5670.09
Noor Rahman Lewal8550.05
Invalid/blank votes
Total1,823,948100
Registered voters/turnout9,665,745≥18,87
Source: IEC

Results by province

Province Ghani % Abdullah % Total votes
Badakhshan 15,234 21.72% 39,246 55.96% 70,126
Baghis 2,374 24.56% 6,209 64.24% 9,664
Baghlan 5,828 19.26% 21,001 69.43% 30,245
Balkh 24,073 33.27% 40,078 55.39% 72,345
Bamyan 15,021 18.21% 55,795 67.66% 82,452
Daykundi 29,742 30.29% 62,521 63.68% 98,170
Farah 3,552 78.22% 539 11.86% 4,541
Faryab 5,090 19.38% 20,274 77.22% 26,252
Ghazni 19,258 26,946 51,922
Ghor 21,553 19,849 48,540
Helmand 30,784 4,876 37,841
Herat 34,199 56,117 116,210
Jowzjan 7,305 29,006 37,710
Kabul 166,617 141,882 349,082
Kandahar 59,548 3,728 68,514
Kapisa 4,599 7,089 14,114
Khost 75,109 96.45% 787 1.01% 77,866
Kunar 54,907 5,072 64,205
Kunduz 3,636 8,074 12,676
Laghman 22,769 469 25,930
Logar 13,344 503 14,196
Nangarhar 188,520 4,952 204,429
Nimruz 7,186 1,482 9,801
Nuristan 6,290 3,516 10,869
Paktia 35,657 1,643 38,386
Paktika 29,499 828 31,512
Panjshir 2,079 11.30% 15,343 83.41% 18,393
Parwan 7,783 20,448 33,211
Samangan 7,123 28,392 37,393
Sar-e Pol 6,154 26,325 34,203
Takhar 8,582 49,514 61,832
Uruzgan 3,518 936 5,434
Wardak 1,279 17,139 19,901
Zabul 5,380 262 5,983
Total 923,592 50.64% 720,841 39.52% 1,823,948
Source: IEC

Aftermath

The announcement of the results triggered a political crisis. Abdullah Abdullah rejected the results and called for the formation of a parallel government in northern Afghanistan.[30] On 22 February Abdullah appointed a new governor loyal to himself in Sar-e Pol Province.[31] American diplomat Zalmay Khalizad attempted to mediate between Ghani and Abdullah, but the two were unable to reach an agreement and both of them took the presidential oath of office at separate inauguration ceremonies on 9 March, with Ghani being sworn in for a second term.[6][7] Shortly afterwards, Ghani abolished the office of Chief Executive,[32] held by Abdullah, and Abdullah issued a statement saying that "Ghani is no longer president," and his decrees were invalid.[33]

On 23 March 2020, the United States announced that as a result of the political crisis it would reduce aid to Afghanistan by $1 billion. If Ghani and Abdullah do not reach an agreement, it may reduce aid further.[34] The political crisis was brought to an end on 17 May 2020, when Ghani and Abdullah signed a power-sharing deal.[8]

References

  1. "Afghan election: Tense wait after day of attacks". BBC News. 29 September 2019. Retrieved 23 April 2020.https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49794057
  2. Akhgar, Tameem; Gannon, Kathy (28 September 2019). "Top 5 Afghan presidential candidates in Saturday's election". Associated Press. Retrieved 23 April 2020.https://apnews.com/28bd4a495dca4e508c2eafc3ce62deb3
  3. "Heavy security as Afghans elect president". BBC News. 28 September 2019. Retrieved 28 September 2019.
  4. Mashal, Mujib (18 February 2020). "After 5-Month Delay, Ashraf Ghani Is Named Winner of Afghan Election". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 18 February 2020.
  5. "Afghanistan: Ghani, Abdullah set to hold parallel inaugurations". Al Jazeera. 8 March 2020. Retrieved 8 March 2020.
  6. "Amid Controversy, Ghani Takes Oath of Office". TOLOnews. Retrieved 9 March 2020.
  7. Qazi, Shereena. "Ghani sworn in as Afghan president, rival holds own inauguration". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 12 March 2020.
  8. "Rival Afghan leaders sign power-sharing deal". BBC News. 17 May 2020. Retrieved 18 May 2020.
  9. Afghan presidential election delayed by three months BBC News, 26 December 2018
  10. Afghan presidential elections postponed until July 20: official Al Jazeera, 30 December 2018
  11. Najafizada, Eltaf. "Afghanistan Presidential Election Once Again Delayed by Two Months". Bloomberg News. Retrieved 20 March 2019.
  12. "Afghanistan presidential election: All the latest updates". Al Jazeera. 28 September 2019. Retrieved 28 September 2019.
  13. "A Leading Afghan Presidential Candidate Suspends Campaign". Voice of America. Retrieved 17 August 2019.
  14. "Dozens killed by Taliban suicide bombings in Afghanistan". The Oxford Times. Retrieved 17 September 2019.
  15. "Afghan Elections Witness Historical Low Turnout Amid Taliban Threats". Ask The Truth. Retrieved 29 September 2019.
  16. Sediqi, Abdul Qadir; Jain, Rupam (28 September 2019). "Afghan presidential vote held in relative calm, but turnout low". Reuters. Retrieved 28 September 2019.
  17. "Afghanistan Election Draws Low Turnout Amid Taliban Threats". The New York Times. 28 September 2019. Retrieved 28 September 2018.
  18. Salahuddin, Sayed (28 September 2019). "Afghan voters defy Taliban attacks". Arab News. Retrieved 28 September 2019.
  19. "Afghan presidential vote spared major violence, but turnout sharply lower". The Washington Post. 28 September 2019. Retrieved 28 September 2019.
  20. "Afghanistan turns to biometrics to tackle election fraud". E-Nigeria. Archived from the original on 29 September 2019. Retrieved 27 September 2019.
  21. Kathy Gannon (29 September 2019), "Afghanistan faces possible political chaos after presidential election", Global News
  22. Ali Yawar Adili (11 February 2019). "Afghanistan's 2019 elections (2): Who is running to become the next president?". Afghanistan Analysts Network. Archived from the original on 11 April 2019. Retrieved 20 August 2019.
  23. Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan. "1398 Presidential Election Candidate List" (PDF). IEC AF. Retrieved 3 September 2019.
  24. "Noor Rahman Liwal's Official Website". Official Website.
  25. Ali Yawar Adili; Thomas Ruttig (16 September 2019). "Afghanistan's 2019 Election (7): Dithering over peace amid a lacklustre campaign". Afghanistan Analysts Network. Retrieved 19 September 2019.
  26. "Presidential Election Preliminary Results". Afghanistan 2019 Presidential Election. 22 December 2019. Retrieved 16 February 2020.
  27. https://tolonews.com/elections-2019/preliminary-election-result-announce-nov-14-iec
  28. "Afghanistan's Presidential Poll Results Delayed Again". Voice of America. Retrieved 15 November 2019.
  29. Pamela Constable (22 December 2019). "Afghanistan's Ghani wins slim majority in presidential vote, preliminary results show". The Washington Post. Retrieved 22 December 2019.
  30. "Will the Ghani-Abdullah rivalry undermine Afghan peace process?". Retrieved 24 February 2020.
  31. "Abdullah-Loyal Governor Installed in Sar-e-Pul". TOLOnews. Retrieved 24 February 2020.
  32. "Ghani, By Decree, 'Abolishes' Chief Executive Office". TOLOnews. Retrieved 12 March 2020.
  33. "'Ghani is No Longer President': Abdullah". TOLOnews. Retrieved 12 March 2020.
  34. "US slashes aid to Afghanistan after Pompeo visit to Kabul". AP NEWS. 23 March 2020. Retrieved 29 March 2020.
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