2020 Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) leadership election

The 2020 Liberal Democratic Party of Japan leadership election was held on 14 September 2020 to elect the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, three days before the National Diet was scheduled to hold a session to elect the new Prime Minister.[1] Initially scheduled to be held in September 2021, incumbent party president and the longest-serving Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, suddenly resigned on 28 August 2020, citing recent health concerns, prompting an election to select the President to serve the rest of Abe's term.[2][3][4]

2020 Liberal Democratic Party leadership election
14 September 2020[1]
535 delegates in total
268 or more delegate votes needed to win
 
Candidate Yoshihide Suga Fumio Kishida Shigeru Ishiba
LDP MPs 288 79 26
Prefectural votes 89 10 42
Total 377 89 68
President before election

Shinzo Abe

 Elected President

Yoshihide Suga

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga easily won the election, securing endorsements from a majority of voting members of the party in the days preceding the vote.[5] As the Liberal Democratic Party currently controls a majority in the National Diet as a member of the governing coalition, Suga successfully succeeded Abe as Japan's prime minister on 16 September 2020.

Background

Following several hospital visits which launched speculation into his health,[6][7] incumbent Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced during a press conference on 28 August 2020 that he would resign before the end of his final term in office due to a resurgence of his chronic ulcerative colitis. During the press conference, Abe announced that as a result the LDP is preparing for a leadership election to choose his successor, and that he would not endorse any specific candidate.[2][3][4]

Procedure

There are two ways by which the president could be elected in the leadership election: the first would be an open election in which voting power is given to both party members and members of the National Diet. Each would receive half of the voting power to elect the new president. The other method would allow the vote to be restricted to the Diet members and representatives from each of Japan’s 47 prefectures, which would add up to 535 electors.[8] According to an LDP lawmaker, Toshihiro Nikai, the party's secretary-general, decided on the second option.[9] To appear on the ballot, candidates must receive at least 20 nominations from the 394 Diet members in the LDP caucus.[10]

Timeline

2020
  • 28 August – Shinzo Abe announces his resignation as Prime Minister and party president. He will remain on until a successor is chosen.[2][3][4]
  • 29 August – Party officials announce the election will take place someday before, on, or after 15 September 2020.[11]
  • 31 August – Party officials announce the election will be held on 14 September 2020.[1]
  • 1 September – Former Foreign Affairs Minister Fumio Kishida and former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba officially announce their candidacies.[12]
  • 2 September – Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga officially announces his candidacy. [13]
  • 8 September – Campaign officially began. The candidates held a joint press conference.[14]
  • 9 September – The first of two public debate between the leadership candidates was held.[14]
  • 12 September – The second public debate between the leadership candidates was held.[14]
  • 14 September – The election was held; Yoshihide Suga wins on the first ballot with 377 votes.

Candidates

Declared
Candidate Notable positions Party faction District Announced Reference(s)
Shigeru Ishiba		 Member of the House of Representatives (since 1986)
Defense Minister (2007–2008)
2008, 2012 and 2018 LDP leadership candidate		 Suigetsukai
Tottori 1st district		 1 September [12]
Fumio Kishida		 Member of the House of Representatives (since 1993)
Minister of Foreign Affairs (2012–2017)
Acting Defense Minister (2017)		 Kōchikai
Hiroshima 1st district		 1 September [15]
Yoshihide Suga		 Chief Cabinet Secretary (since 2012)
Member of the House of Representatives (since 1996)
Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications (2006–2007)		 None
Kanagawa 2nd district		 2 September [13]

Declined

Endorsements
Endorsements of Shigeru Ishiba
Members of the National Diet
Prefectural politicians
Municipal politicians
Party factions
Other prominent individuals
Organizations
Media
Total endorsements: 1
Endorsements of Fumio Kishida
Members of the National Diet
Prefectural politicians
Municipal politicians
Party factions
Other prominent individuals
Organizations
Media
Total endorsements: 1
Endorsements of Yoshihide Suga
Members of the National Diet
Prefectural politicians
Municipal politicians
Party factions
  • Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Largest faction in the LDP; 98 members)[19][20][21]
  • Shikōkai (Second-largest faction in the LDP; 54 members)[19][20][21]
  • Heisei Kenkyūkai (Third-largest faction in the LDP; 54 members)[19][20][21]
  • Shisuikai (Fourth-largest faction in the LDP; 47 members)[19][20][21]
  • Kin-Mirai Seiji Kenkyūkai (Small faction in the LDP; 11 members)[19][20][21]
Other prominent individuals
Organizations
Media
Total endorsements: 10

Opinion polling

Nationwide
Polling firm/link Date of polling Sample size Fumio Kishida Shinjiro Koizumi Tarō Kōno Shigeru Ishiba Hakubun Shimomura Yoshihide Suga Undecided/NOTA Notes
Mainichi Shimbun/SSRC 9 September 2020 Unknown – – – 36% – 44% 20%
Asahi Shimbun 2-3 September 2020 1,130 5% – – 25% – 38% 32%
Nikkei/TV Tokyo 29-30 August 2020 Unknown 6% 14% 15% 28% – 11% 26%
Kyodo News 28-30 August 2020 1,050 7.5% 10.1% 13.6% 34.3% – 14.3% 20.2%

Results
Results[22]
Candidate Diet members Prefectural representatives Total points
Votes cast % Votes cast % Total votes %
Yoshihide Suga 288 73.1% 89 63.1% 377 70.5%
Fumio Kishida 79 20.1% 10 7.1% 89 16.6%
Shigeru Ishiba 26 6.6% 42 29.8% 68 12.7%
Total 394 100% 141 100% 535 100%

References
  1. "Japan's Shinzo Abe steps down as PM due to health concerns". The Asahi Shimbun. 31 August 2020. Archived from the original on 1 September 2020. Retrieved 31 August 2020.
  2. "Shinzo Abe: Japan's PM resigns for health reasons". BBC News. 28 August 2020. Archived from the original on 28 August 2020. Retrieved 28 August 2020.
  3. "Japan's PM Shinzo Abe resigns because of ill-health". Al Jazeera. 28 August 2020. Archived from the original on 28 August 2020. Retrieved 28 August 2020.
  4. "Japan's Shinzo Abe steps down as PM due to health concerns". National Post. 28 August 2020. Archived from the original on 14 September 2020. Retrieved 28 August 2020.
  5. Sugiyama, Satoshi (14 September 2020). "Yoshihide Suga set to become Japan's prime minister after winning LDP election". The Japan Times. Archived from the original on 14 September 2020. Retrieved 14 September 2020.
  6. "Shinzo Abe hospital visit stokes speculation over successor". Financial Times. 18 August 2020. Archived from the original on 21 August 2020. Retrieved 28 August 2020.
  7. "Japan's Shinzo Abe back to hospital over health worries". Euronews. 24 August 2020. Archived from the original on 28 August 2020. Retrieved 28 August 2020.
  8. "Japan's Leader Is Leaving. Here's How It Might Pick a New One". New York Times. 28 August 2020. Archived from the original on 28 August 2020. Retrieved 28 August 2020.
  9. "Race to succeed Abe kicks off with no clear favorite". 29 August 2020. Archived from the original on 29 August 2020. Retrieved 29 August 2020.
  10. "Japan set for new PM in weeks as Shinzo Abe's party plans speedy vote". Financial Times. 30 August 2020. Archived from the original on 30 August 2020. Retrieved 31 August 2020.
  11. "In race to replace Japan's Abe, loyalist Suga emerges as strong contender". Reuters. 29 August 2020. Archived from the original on 30 August 2020. Retrieved 29 August 2020.
  12. "Suga front-runner in Japan's LDP race as grassroots members excluded from vote". Mainichi Daily News. 1 September 2020. Archived from the original on 1 September 2020. Retrieved 1 September 2020.
  13. "Yoshihide Suga launches bid to become Japan's next prime minister". Al Jazeera. 2 September 2020. Archived from the original on 2 September 2020. Retrieved 2 September 2020.
  14. "Japan's LDP Leadership Race Candidates to Hold Public Debates on September 9, 12". New York Times. 3 September 2020. Archived from the original on 14 September 2020. Retrieved 5 September 2020.
  15. "Japan's Kishida Says Can Show Strength in Economic, Foreign Policy Fields". The New York Times. 2 September 2020. Archived from the original on 14 September 2020. Retrieved 4 September 2020.
  16. "Japan PM Abe resigns due to illness with many issues unresolved". Kyodo News. 28 August 2020. Archived from the original on 29 August 2020. Retrieved 29 August 2020.
  17. Kajimoto, Tetsushi; (ed..) Mallard, William (30 August 2020). "Japan's Koizumi won't seek to succeed Abe as PM, would back Kono: NHK". Reuters. Archived from the original on 30 August 2020. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  18. "Japan gov't spokesman Suga gains support of major faction in replacing Abe". Mainichi Daily News. 31 August 2020. Archived from the original on 14 September 2020. Retrieved 1 September 2020.
  19. "総裁選、竹下派が菅氏を支持　茂木外相の立候補は見送り". Asahi Shimbun (in Japanese). 2 September 2020. Archived from the original on 11 September 2020. Retrieved 12 September 2020.
  20. "菅氏優勢、5派閥が支持　自民党総裁選". Nihon Keizai Shimbun (in Japanese). 3 September 2020. Archived from the original on 4 September 2020. Retrieved 12 September 2020.
  21. Mulgan, Aurelia George (6 September 2020). "Suga's a sure bet in Japan's leadership election". East Asia Forum. Archived from the original on 7 September 2020. Retrieved 12 September 2020.
  22. "自民党総裁選結果 菅氏377票 岸田氏89票 石破氏68票". NHK (in Japanese). 14 September 2020. Retrieved 16 September 2020.
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