2021 United States gubernatorial elections

The 2021 United States gubernatorial elections will be held on November 2, 2021, in two states, New Jersey and Virginia. These elections formed part of the 2021 United States elections. The last regular gubernatorial elections for these two states were in 2017. Both seats are currently held by Democrats. The incumbent Governor of Virginia Ralph Northam is term-limited, while the Governor of New Jersey Phil Murphy is running for re-election.

For related races, see 2021 United States elections.
2021 United States gubernatorial elections
November 2, 2021
2 governorships
  Majority party Minority party
 
Leader Doug Ducey Michelle Lujan Grisham
Party Republican Democratic
Leader's seat Arizona New Mexico
Seats before 27 23
     Democratic incumbent      Term-limited Democrat
     No election

Election predictions

Several sites and individuals published predictions of competitive seats. These predictions looked at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan leanings of the state (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assigned ratings to each seat, with the rating indicating the predicted advantage that a party has in winning that seat.

Most election predictors use:

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean": slight advantage
  • "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe": near-certain chance of victory
State PVI Incumbent[1] Last
race		 Cook
February 1,
2021[2]		 270toWin
February 8,
2021[3]
New Jersey D+7 Phil Murphy (D) 56.0% D Solid D Safe D
Virginia D+1 Ralph Northam (D)
(Term-limited)		 53.9% D Likely D Likely D

Race summary
State Governor Party First elected Last race Status Candidates
New Jersey Phil Murphy Democratic 2017 56.0% D Running Jack Ciattarelli (R)[4]
Phil Murphy (D)[5]
Lisa Schnell (R)[6]
Hirsh Singh (R)[7]
Virginia Ralph Northam Democratic 2017 53.9% D Term-limited Lee Carter (D)[8]
Justin Fairfax (D)[9]
Jennifer Carroll Foy (D)[10]
Terry McAuliffe (D)[11]
Jennifer McClellan (D)[12]
Amanda Chase (R)[13]
Kirk Cox (R)[14]
Merle Rutledge Jr. (R)[15]
Kurt Santini (R)[16]
Princess Blanding (Liberation)[17]

New Jersey
Main article: 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election

Governor Phil Murphy was elected in 2017 with 56% of the vote.[18] He is eligible to run for re-election to a second term and has stated he will do so.

Republican Jack Ciattarelli was the earliest to announce his candidacy for the governorship in February 2018.[19] He was followed by New Jersey Republican Party chairman Doug Steinhardt, who announced his campaign in December 2020.[20] Potential candidates include former Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno,[21] former U.S. Representative Tom MacArthur[22] and former congressional candidate and radio talk show host Bill Spadea.

Virginia
Main article: 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election

Governor Ralph Northam was elected in 2017 with 53.9% of the vote.[23] He will be term-limited in 2021, as the Virginia Constitution does not allow governors to serve consecutive terms.

Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax, former Governor of Virginia Terry McAuliffe, State Senator Jennifer McClellan, State Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy and State Delegate Lee Carter have announced their candidacy for the Democratic nomination for the governorship.[10][8][24] Virginia Attorney General Mark Herring previously announced his intention to run for the governorship but withdrew from the race to seek reelection as attorney general.[25] Other potential Democratic candidates include former U.S. Representative and 2017 gubernatorial candidate Tom Perriello and political strategist Mike Henry.[26][27]

State Senator Amanda Chase announced her candidacy for the Republican nomination for the governorship in February 2020.[28][29] After initially indicating a brief attempt at an independent run because of the state Republicans' decision to hold a convention instead of a primary,[30] Chase later returned to seek her party's nomination once more.[13] Kirk Cox, the former Republican Speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates, filed the paperwork to run for the governorship in September 2020.[31] Other potential Republican candidates include State Senator Frank Wagner, 2017 gubernatorial nominee Ed Gillespie, Northern Virginia technology entrepreneur Pete Snyder, U.S. Representative Morgan Griffith, former U.S. Representative Barbara Comstock and U.S. Representative Denver Riggleman.[32] Riggleman is also considering running as an independent candidate.[33]

Princess Blanding, a teacher and sister of the late Marcus-David Peters, is the newly-founded Liberation Party's gubernatorial candidate.[17]

References
  1. Parentheses around an incumbent's name indicates that the incumbent is retiring, possibly due to term limits.
  2. "2022 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2021-02-03.
  3. "2021-22 Governor Elections: A First Look". 270toWin. Retrieved 2021-02-08.
  4. "Republican Says He Plans to Run for NJ Governor in 2021". US News & World Report. February 13, 2018.
  5. "Gov. Phil Murphy to begin process of running for a second term". News 12 New Jersey. October 2, 2020.
  6. "2021 Nj Gubernatorial Race - Lisa Schnell for Governor of NJ". lisa2021.com.
  7. Wildstein, David (November 9, 2020). "Singh launches bid for Governor against Murphy". New Jersey Globe. Sea of Reeds Media.
  8. Irby, Sarah. "Delegate Lee Carter announces run for Virginia governor". NBC 12. Gray Television Inc. Retrieved January 1, 2021.
  9. "Lt. Gov. Fairfax announces he will run for governor in 2021". Richmond Free Press. December 27, 2019. Retrieved February 2, 2020.
  10. Mattingly, Justin. "Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy files paperwork to run for governor". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
  11. Brown, Bob (December 8, 2020). "Terry McAuliffe to announce run for governor Wednesday". Retrieved December 8, 2020.
  12. "Sen. Jennifer McClellan announces her candidacy for governor". Richmond Free Press. June 25, 2020. Retrieved July 15, 2020.
  13. "Amanda Chase changes course, says she will participate in a Republican convention". VA Scope. December 11, 2020. Retrieved December 11, 2020.
  14. Schneider, Gregory (November 17, 2020). "Former Virginia House speaker Kirk Cox says he'll seek GOP nomination for governor". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  15. "Rutledge 2021".
  16. "Santini announces GOP bid for governor, visits Appomattox County". Times Virginian. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  17. Rockett, Ali (December 29, 2020). "Princess Blanding, sister of Marcus-David Peters, announces run for governor". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  18. "New Jersey Governor race results 2017". CNN. November 7, 2017.
  19. "Republican Says He Plans to Run for NJ Governor in 2021". US News & World Report. February 13, 2018.
  20. "Doug Steinhardt will run for governor against Phil Murphy". New Jersey Globe. December 10, 2020. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
  21. "Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno is leaving office, but probably not politics". NorthJersey.com. December 29, 2017.
  22. "'Recruitment failures' by Democrats giving MacArthur easier path to re-election". Politico. July 14, 2016.
  23. "Virginia Governor race results 2017". CNN. November 7, 2017.
  24. "Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe enters governor's race". AP News. December 9, 2020. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
  25. Vozzella, Laura. "Mark Herring to run again for Virginia attorney general, skipping governor's race". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved October 8, 2020.
  26. "Fairfax, Stoney - a rivalry with repercussions". Richmond Times-Dispatch. January 23, 2018.
  27. Vozzella, Laura (May 11, 2020). "Covid-19 puts crimp in 2021 race for Virginia governor". Washington Post.
  28. Vozzella, Laura. "Gun-toting state senator expected to announce bid for Virginia governor". Washington Post. Archived from the original on February 15, 2020. Retrieved February 17, 2020.
  29. Tyree, Elizabeth (February 17, 2020). "'I can't take it anymore'; Republican senator announces her bid for governor". WSET. Retrieved May 26, 2020.
  30. Oliver, Ned (December 5, 2020). "Chase promises to run as independent for governor after Va. GOP opts for convention over primary". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  31. Vozzella, Laura. "Former speaker Cox takes another step toward a 2021 bid for Virginia governor". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved October 8, 2020.
  32. Vozzella, Laura (May 11, 2020). "Covid-19 puts crimp in 2021 race for Virginia governor". Washington Post.
  33. "Could Riggleman win the governorship as an independent?". The Roanoke Times. Retrieved October 8, 2020.
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