2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia

The 2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia was held on November 3, 2020 and on January 5, 2021 (as a runoff), to elect the Class III member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Georgia. Democrat Raphael Warnock defeated appointed incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler. The first round of the election was held on November 3, 2020, however, no candidate received a majority of the vote, so the top two candidates—Warnock and Loeffler—advanced to a runoff on January 5, 2021.

2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia

November 3, 2020 (first round)
January 5, 2021 (runoff)
 
Candidate Raphael Warnock Kelly Loeffler
Party Democratic Republican
First round 1,617,035
32.90%
1,273,214
25.91%
Runoff 2,289,113
51.04%
2,195,841
48.96%

 
Candidate Doug Collins Deborah Jackson
Party Republican Democratic
First round 980,454
19.95%
324,118
6.60%
Runoff Eliminated Eliminated

Map key
Warnock:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Loeffler:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90–100%
Collins:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%

U.S. senator before election

Kelly Loeffler
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Raphael Warnock
Democratic

The election arose from the resignation of Republican Class III Senator Johnny Isakson in December 2019. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp appointed Loeffler to serve as Isakson's interim replacement on January 6, 2020. Because of this, Warnock's term will conclude on January 3, 2023, and he will have the option to run for reelection to a full term in 2022.

In accordance with Georgia law, no primary election took place for the special election; all candidates, regardless of party, were placed on the same ballot (known as a nonpartisan blanket primary), and the election was held on November 3, 2020. Warnock received the most votes with 32.9%, and Loeffler came in second with 25.9%. As no candidate received more than 50% of the vote, the top two candidates advanced to a runoff election on January 5, 2021.[1]

The runoff was held concurrently with the regular Georgia Class II Senate election, in which Democrat Jon Ossoff defeated incumbent Republican David Perdue, also in a runoff on January 5. Following the November 3, 2020 Senate elections, Republicans held 50 Senate seats and the Democratic caucus—consisting of 46 registered Democrats and two allied independents—held 48. Because of this, the two Georgia runoffs determined the balance of the United States Senate under the incoming Biden administration. Winning both races gave the Democratic caucus 50 Senate seats, an effective majority with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris casting tie-breaking votes. The extraordinarily high political stakes caused the races to attract significant attention nationwide and globally.

Major media outlets, including Decision Desk HQ, the Associated Press, The New York Times, and NBC News, called the election for Warnock in the early hours of January 6, just minutes after he apparently declared victory. Though Loeffler vowed to challenge the results after she returned from the electoral vote certification in Washington,[2] she conceded on January 7.[3] Ossoff and Warnock became the first Democrats to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Georgia since Zell Miller in the 2000 special election. Warnock is the first African-American senator from Georgia, as well as the first African-American Democrat from the South elected to the Senate.[4] Hours later, Ossoff was declared the winner in the regular Senate election.[5][6] The two elections mark the first time since 1994 that both Senate seats in a state have flipped from one party to the other in a single election cycle.

The election results were certified on January 19, 2021, with the senators-elect taking office on January 20.[7][8][9]

Background

On August 28, 2019, Isakson announced that he would resign from the Senate effective December 31 due to his deteriorating health.[10] This triggered a special election to fill the remainder of his term. On September 17, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp launched a website inviting Georgia citizens to submit their résumés in order to be considered for appointment.[11] President Donald Trump advocated the appointment of Representative Doug Collins.[12] Kemp appointed Loeffler to fill the seat until the 2020 special election; she took office on January 6, 2020.[13]

Candidates

Democratic Party

Despite the large number of candidates in the special election, by October 4, 2020, the Democratic Party had largely consolidated around Warnock's candidacy and had pressured other Democratic candidates, such as Matt Lieberman, to drop out to avoid vote-splitting.[14]

Advanced to runoff

Eliminated

Declined

Matt Lieberman
U.S. Senators
Individuals
Raphael Warnock
U.S. Presidents
  • Jimmy Carter, 39th President of the United States (1977-1981), Governor of Georgia (1971-1975)[36]
  • Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States (2009-2017), U.S. Senator from Illinois (2005-2008)[37]
U.S. Vice Presidents
U.S. Cabinet Members
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State Legislators
County officials
Local officials
Organizations
Individuals

Advanced to runoff

Eliminated

Withdrawn

  • Ervan Katari Miller, perennial candidate[83][84]
  • Wayne Johnson, former chief operating officer of the Office of Federal Student Aid[85] (remained on ballot)

Declined

Kelly Loeffler
U.S. President
U.S. Vice President
Federal officials
State officials
Organizations
Individuals
Doug Collins
Federal officials
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations

Declared

Declared

  • John "Green" Fortuin[84]

Declared

Special election

Polling

Jungle primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Doug
Collins (R)
Matt
Lieberman (D)
Kelly
Loeffler (R)
Ed
Tarver (D)
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Other Undecided
Landmark Communications November 1, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 24% 5% 27% 1% 38% 1%[lower-alpha 2] 3%
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 1,036 (LV) ± 3% 21% 8% 26% 3% 41% 1%[lower-alpha 3]
Emerson College October 29–31, 2020 749 (LV) ± 3.5% 27%[lower-alpha 4] 8% 24% 2% 38% 2%[lower-alpha 5]
Landmark Communications October 28, 2020 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 23% 9% 25% 1% 37% 2%[lower-alpha 6] 3%
Public Policy Polling October 27–28, 2020 661 (V) 19% 2% 27% 0% 46% 2%[lower-alpha 7] 4%
Monmouth University October 23–27, 2020 504 (RV) ± 4.4% 18% 4% 21% 3% 41% 7%[lower-alpha 8] 6%
504 (LV)[lower-alpha 9] 19% 22% 41%
504 (LV)[lower-alpha 10] 20% 22% 42%
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 23–26, 2020 1,041 (LV) ± 3.3% 23% 2% 22% 1% 48% 2%[lower-alpha 11] 2%
University of Georgia October 14–23, 2020 1,145 (LV) ± 4% 21% 4% 20% 1% 34% 5%[lower-alpha 12] 14%
Landmark Communications October 21, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 27% 24% 33%
Citizen Data October 17–20, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 19% 4% 23% 1% 41% 3% 10%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.3% 27% 12% 20% 2% 27% 2%[lower-alpha 13] 12%
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 13–19, 2020 759 (LV) ± 4.1% 17% 7% 23% 2% 32% 1%[lower-alpha 14] 18%[lower-alpha 15]
Opinion Insight (R)[upper-alpha 1] October 12–15, 2020 801 (LV) ± 3.46% 18%[lower-alpha 16] 3% 19% 1% 31% 14%[lower-alpha 17] 18%[lower-alpha 18]
Quinnipiac University October 8–12, 2020 1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% 22% 5% 20% 2% 41% 0%[lower-alpha 19] 9%
SurveyUSA October 8–12, 2020 677 (LV) ± 5.7% 20% 8% 26% 3% 30% 2%[lower-alpha 20] 12%
Data for Progress October 8–11, 2020 782 (LV) ± 3.5% 22% 10% 22% 30% 17%[lower-alpha 21]
Public Policy Polling October 8–9, 2020 528 (V) ± 4.3% 22% 3% 24% 0% 41% 2%[lower-alpha 22] 8%
Landmark Communications October 7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 23% 3% 26% 0% 36% 4%[lower-alpha 23] 8%
University of Georgia September 27 – October 6, 2020 1,106 (LV) ± 2.9% 21% 3% 22% 4% 28% 3%[lower-alpha 24] 19%
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.5% 25% 5% 21% 2% 38% 1%[lower-alpha 25] 7%
Hart Research Associates (D)[upper-alpha 2] September 24–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 21% 8%[lower-alpha 26] 28% 3% 28%
Quinnipiac University September 23–27, 2020 1,125 (LV) ± 2.9% 22% 9% 23% 4% 31% 0%[lower-alpha 27] 12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies September 23–26, 2020 789 (LV) ± 3.49% 16% 16% 25% 26% 3%[lower-alpha 28] 14%
Monmouth University September 17–21, 2020 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 22% 11% 23% 4% 21% 6%[lower-alpha 29] 13%
402 (LV)[lower-alpha 9] 23% 11% 23% 3% 23% 5%[lower-alpha 30] 12%
402 (LV)[lower-alpha 10] 24% 9% 23% 2% 25% 4%[lower-alpha 31] 12%
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 16–21, 2020 523 (LV) ± 4.9% 19% 7% 23% 4% 19% 1%[lower-alpha 32] 27%[lower-alpha 33]
University of Georgia September 11–20, 2020 1,150 (LV) ± 4.0% 21% 11% 24% 5% 20% 4%[lower-alpha 34] 16%
Data For Progress (D) September 14–19, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 22% 14% 21% 26% 17%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies September 12–17, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 19% 15% 26% 21% 5%[lower-alpha 35] 15%
GBAO Strategies (D)[upper-alpha 3] September 14–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 19% 11% 29% 5% 25%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[upper-alpha 4] August 30 – September 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 20% 10% 24% 7% 19% 1%[lower-alpha 36] 19%
Opinion Insight (R)[upper-alpha 1] August 30 – September 2, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 20%[lower-alpha 37] 4% 17% 1% 17% 13%[lower-alpha 38] 27%
HarrisX (D)[upper-alpha 5] August 20–30, 2020 1,616 (RV) ± 2.4% 21% 13% 26% 7% 16% 18%[lower-alpha 39]
SurveyUSA August 6–8, 2020 623 (LV) ± 5.3% 17% 13% 26% 3% 17% 2%[lower-alpha 40] 21%
HIT Strategies (D)[upper-alpha 6] July 23–31, 2020 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 18% 14% 22% 6% 14% 1%[lower-alpha 41] 23%
Monmouth University July 23–27, 2020 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 20% 14% 26% 5% 9% 8%[lower-alpha 42] 18%
402 (LV)[lower-alpha 9] 21% 14% 26% 5% 10% 6%[lower-alpha 43] 17%
402 (LV)[lower-alpha 10] 22% 13% 26% 4% 10% 6%[lower-alpha 44] 19%
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 7] July 11–16, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 20% 23% 19% 9% 20%
GBAO Strategies (D)[upper-alpha 3] July 6–9, 2020 600 (LV) 26% 19% 21% 9% 16%
Battleground Connect (R)[upper-alpha 8] July 6–8, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 26% 15% 17% 5% 10% 2%[lower-alpha 45] 26%
Gravis Marketing (R)[upper-alpha 9] July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 26% 11% 24% 9% 18% 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 10] June 25–26, 2020 734 (RV) ± 3.6% 23% 11% 21% 3% 20% 22%
MRG (D)[upper-alpha 11] June 18–23, 2020 1,259 (LV) 27% 13% 21% 23% 5%[lower-alpha 46] 12%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 34% 14% 12% 6% 18% 4%[lower-alpha 47] 12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 4–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 19% 17% 18% 9% 11%[lower-alpha 48] 26%
Cygnal (R)[upper-alpha 12] April 25–27, 2020 591 (LV) ± 4.0% 29% 12% 11% 4% 11% 2%[lower-alpha 49] 31%
Battleground Connect (R)[upper-alpha 8] March 31 – April 1, 2020 1,035 (LV) ± 3.01% 36% 11% 13% 3% 16% 4%[lower-alpha 50] 17%
Battleground Connect (R)[upper-alpha 8] March 24, 2020 1,025 (LV)[lower-alpha 51] 34% 18% 14% 5% 13% 15%
Battleground Connect (R)[upper-alpha 8] March 21, 2020 1,025 (LV)[lower-alpha 52] 32% 19% 15% 5% 12% 18%
Battleground Connect (R)[upper-alpha 8] March 12, 2020 1,025 (LV)[lower-alpha 53] 30% 18% 19% 5% 10% 18%
Battleground Connect (R)[upper-alpha 8] March 7, 2020 1,025 (LV)[lower-alpha 54] 29% 16% 20% 5% 12% 18%
University of Georgia February 24 – March 2, 2020 1,117 (LV) ± 2.9% 21% 11% 19% 4% 6% 8%[lower-alpha 55] 31%
Battleground Connect (R)[upper-alpha 8] February 26–27, 2020 1,050 (LV) ± 3.0% 28% 5% 20% 3% 13% 31%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 13] February 17–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 19% 18% 20% [lower-alpha 56] 7%[lower-alpha 57] 21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 8] December 16–18, 2019 600 (LV) 32% 42% 11% 16%

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[146] Tossup October 13, 2020
Inside Elections[147] Tossup December 14, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[148] Tossup October 8, 2020
Daily Kos[149] Tossup October 30, 2020
Politico[150] Lean R September 9, 2020
RCP[151] Lean R September 27, 2020
Niskanen[152] Likely R September 15, 2020
DDHQ[153] Tossup October 27, 2020
FiveThirtyEight[154] Lean D (flip) October 28, 2020
Economist[155] Tossup October 28, 2020

Results

Since no candidate won a majority of the vote on November 3, the top two finishers—Loeffler and Warnock—advanced to a January 5, 2021 runoff election.[156][157]

2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia[158]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Raphael Warnock 1,617,035 32.90
Republican Kelly Loeffler (incumbent) 1,273,214 25.91
Republican Doug Collins 980,454 19.95
Democratic Deborah Jackson 324,118 6.60
Democratic Matt Lieberman 136,021 2.77
Democratic Tamara Johnson-Shealey 106,767 2.17
Democratic Jamesia James 94,406 1.92
Republican Derrick Grayson 51,592 1.05
Democratic Joy Felicia Slade 44,945 0.91
Republican Annette Davis Jackson 44,335 0.90
Republican Kandiss Taylor 40,349 0.82
Republican Wayne Johnson (withdrawn) 36,176 0.74
Libertarian Brian Slowinski 35,431 0.72
Democratic Richard Dien Winfield 28,687 0.58
Democratic Ed Tarver 26,333 0.54
Independent Allen Buckley 17,954 0.37
Green John Fortuin 15,293 0.31
Independent Al Bartell 14,640 0.30
Independent Valencia Stovall 13,318 0.27
Independent Michael Todd Greene 13,293 0.27
Total votes 4,914,361 100.0

Runoff

The runoff election for Isakson's former seat was on January 5, 2021. The runoff election for the Georgia U.S. Senate seat held by Republican David Perdue was also decided in a January 5 runoff. Before the Georgia runoffs in the 2020 U.S. Senate elections, Republicans held 50 Senate seats and the Democratic caucus held 48.[159] Warnock declared victory on January 6, 2021.[160] If Democrats won the other Georgia runoff held on January 5, their caucus would gain control of the Senate, as the resultant 50–50 tie would be broken by Democratic vice president-elect Kamala Harris. If they lost the second race, Republicans would retain control.[161] The high political stakes caused the races to attract significant attention nationwide.[162][163][164] They were the third and fourth Senate runoff elections held in Georgia since runoffs were first mandated in 1964, after runoffs in 1992 and 2008.[165] It was also the third time that both of Georgia's Senate seats have been up for election at the same time, following double-barrel elections in 1914 and 1932. The Associated Press and other major news outlets called the race for Warnock in the early morning hours of January 6.[166] His win was attributed to heavy black voter turnout.[167]

The deadline for registration for the runoff election was December 7.[168] Absentee ballots for the runoff were sent out beginning on November 18, and in-person voting began on December 14.[169][170]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Kelly
Loeffler

Republican
Raphael
Warnock

Democratic
Undecided
[lower-alpha 58]
Margin
270 To Win December 16 – January 3, 2020 January 4, 2021 47.4% 50.2% 2.4% Warnock +2.8
RealClearPolitics December 14, 2020 – January 4, 2021 January 5, 2021 48.8% 49.3% 1.9% Warnock +0.5
538 November 9 – January 4, 2021 January 4, 2021 47.2% 49.4% 2.2% Warnock +2.2
Average 47.8% 49.6% 2.2% Warnock +1.8
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Loeffler (R)
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Other Undecided
Trafalgar Group January 2–4, 2021 1,056 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 48% 2%
AtlasIntel January 2–4, 2021 857 (LV) ± 3% 47% 51% 2%
InsiderAdvantage January 3, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 49% 2%
National Research Inc January 2–3, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 46% 9%
University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021 550 (LV) ± 4% 49% 48% 3%
Targoz Market Research December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021 713 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 51% 0%
1,342 (RV) 48% 49% 3%
AtlasIntel December 25, 2020 – January 1, 2021 1,680 (LV) ± 2% 47% 51% 2%
Gravis Marketing December 29–30, 2020 1,011 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 49% 3%
JMC Analytics and Polling December 28–29, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 54% 1%
Trafalgar Group December 23–27, 2020 1,022 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 50% 1%
Open Model Project December 21–27, 2020 1,405 (LV) ± 4.7% 50% 46% 4%
InsiderAdvantage December 21–22, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 49% 4%
Mellman Group December 18–22, 2020 578 (LV) ± 4.1% 47% 50% 3%
Reconnect Research/Probolsky Research December 14–22, 2020 1,027 (LV) ± 4% 42% 43% 15%
SurveyUSA December 16–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 5.1% 45% 52% 3%
Trafalgar Group December 14–16, 2020 1,064 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 46% 2%
Emerson College December 14–16, 2020 605 (LV) ± 3.9% 51% 48% 1%
InsiderAdvantage December 14, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 48% 3%
Wick December 10–14, 2020 1,500 (LV) 50% 48% 2%
RMG Research December 8–14, 2020 1,417 (LV) ± 2.6% 48% 49% 4%
Baris/Peach State Battleground Poll December 4–11, 2020 1,008 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 48% 9%
Trafalgar Group December 8–10, 2020 1,018 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 47% 3%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates November 30 – December 4, 2020 1,250 (LV) ± 3.2% 46% 47% 7%
Trafalgar Group December 1–3, 2020 1,083 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 45% 5%
SurveyUSA November 27–30, 2020 583 (LV) ± 5.2% 45% 52% 2%
RMG Research November 19–24, 2020 1,377 (LV) ± 2.6% 46% 48% 6%
Data for Progress November 15–20, 2020 1,476 (LV) ± 2.6% 47% 50% 4%
InsiderAdvantage November 16, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 49% 3%
VCreek/AMG (R)[upper-alpha 14] November 10, 2020 300 (LV) ± 5.6% 50% 46% 5%
Remington Research Group November 8–9, 2020 1,450 (LV) ± 2.6% 49% 48% 3%
Monmouth University October 23–27, 2020 504 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 51%
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 23–26, 2020 1,041 (LV) ± 3.4% 37% 51% 9%[lower-alpha 59] 2%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 47% 12%
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 13–19, 2020 759 (LV) ± 4.1% 41% 45% 14%[lower-alpha 60]
Quinnipiac University October 8–12, 2020 1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 52% 0%[lower-alpha 61] 4%
Data for Progress October 8–11, 2020 782 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 44% 16%
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 49% 8%[lower-alpha 62] 4%
Gravis Marketing (R)[upper-alpha 9] July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 37% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 10] June 25–26, 2020 734 (RV) ± 3.6% 40% 43% 17%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 32% 45% 18%[lower-alpha 63] 6%
Battleground Connect (R)[upper-alpha 8] March 31 – April 1, 2020 1,035 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 41% 19%
The Progress Campaign (D) March 12–21, 2020 3,042 (RV) ± 4.5% 38% 38% 24%
Hypothetical polling
Loeffler vs. Collins
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Loeffler
Doug
Collins
Undecided
Gravis Marketing (R)[upper-alpha 9] July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 28% 34% 37%
Public Policy Polling (D) December 12–13, 2019 711 (LV)[lower-alpha 64] 16% 56% 27%
Loeffler vs. Lieberman
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Loeffler (R)
Matt
Lieberman (D)
Other Undecided
Data for Progress October 8–11, 2020 782 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 41% 17%
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 39% 17%[lower-alpha 65] 5%
Gravis Marketing (R)[upper-alpha 9] July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 39% 15%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 32% 44% 18%[lower-alpha 66] 6%
Loeffler vs. Tarver
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Loeffler (R)
Ed
Tarver (D)
Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 32% 43% 20%[lower-alpha 67] 6%
Collins vs. Lieberman
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Doug
Collins (R)
Matt
Lieberman (D)
Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 38% 13%[lower-alpha 68] 5%
Gravis Marketing (R)[upper-alpha 9] July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 37% 16%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 44% 7%[lower-alpha 69] 5%
Collins vs. Tarver
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Doug
Collins (R)
Ed
Tarver (D)
Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 42% 8%[lower-alpha 70] 5%
Collins vs. Warnock
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Doug
Collins (R)
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Other Undecided
Monmouth University October 23–27, 2020 504 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 52%
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 23–26, 2020 1,041 (LV) ± 3.3% 42% 51% 5%[lower-alpha 71] 2%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 48% 6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 13–19, 2020 759 (LV) ± 4.1% 41% 45% 14%[lower-alpha 72]
Quinnipiac University October 8–12, 2020 1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 54% 0%[lower-alpha 73] 4%
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 49% 4%[lower-alpha 74] 4%
Gravis Marketing (R)[upper-alpha 9] July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 38% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 10] June 25–26, 2020 734 (RV) ± 3.6% 43% 41% 17%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 45% 6%[lower-alpha 75] 5%
The Progress Campaign (D) May 6–15, 2020 2,893 (LV) ± 2.0% 43% 41% 16%[lower-alpha 76]
Battleground Connect (R)[upper-alpha 8] March 31 – April 1, 2020 1,035 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 36% 15%
The Progress Campaign (D) March 12–21, 2020 3,042 (RV) ± 4.5% 41% 39% 20%
Loeffler vs. Broun
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Loeffler
Paul
Broun
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) December 12–13, 2019 711 (LV)[lower-alpha 77] 27% 14% 59%
Collins vs. Abrams
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 78]
Margin
of error
Doug
Collins (R)
Stacey
Abrams (D)
Undecided
The Progress Campaign (D) March 12–21, 2020 3,042 (RV) ± 4.5% 43% 47% 10%
Loeffler vs. generic opponent
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Loeffler
Someone else Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) December 12–13, 2019 711 (LV)[lower-alpha 79] 26% 30% 44%
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ December 8–14, 2020 1,377 (LV) ± 2.6% 46%[lower-alpha 80] 42% 11%[lower-alpha 81]
Quinnipiac University September 23–27, 2020 1,125 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 49% 3%

Results

2021 United States Senate special election in Georgia runoffs[171]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Raphael Warnock 2,289,113 51.04% +10.00%
Republican Kelly Loeffler (incumbent) 2,195,841 48.96% -5.84%
Total votes 4,484,954 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

By county

County[172] Raphael Warnock
Democratic
Kelly Loeffler
Republican
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # %
Appling 1,596 21.91% 5,690 78.09% -4,094 -56.18% 7,286
Atkinson 722 27.27% 1,926 72.73% -1,204 -45.46% 2,648
Bacon 559 13.53% 3,572 86.47% -3,013 -72.94% 4,131
Baker 625 43.40% 815 56.60% -190 -13.20% 1,440
Baldwin 8,569 52.03% 7,899 47.97% 670 4.06% 16,468
Banks 860 11.55% 6,586 88.45% -6,003 -76.90% 7,446
Barrow 9,417 29.36% 22,660 70.64% -13,243 -41.28% 32,077
Bartow 10,928 25.43% 32,049 74.57% -21,121 -49.14% 42,977
Ben Hill 2,193 38.30% 3,533 61.70% -1,340 -23.32% 5,726
Berrien 1,145 17.13% 5,539 82.87% -4,394 -65.74% 6,684
Bibb 39,972 62.92% 23,555 37.08% 16,417 25.84% 63,527
Bleckley 1,214 23.75% 3,898 76.25% -2,684 -52.50% 5,112
Brantley 613 9.27% 5,999 90.73% -5,386 -81.46% 6,612
Brooks 2,455 39.49% 3,761 60.51% -1,306 -21.02% 6,216
Bryan 6,009 32.30% 12,596 67.70% -6,587 -35.40% 18,605
Bulloch 9,848 37.68% 16,287 62.32% -6,439 -24.64% 26,135
Burke 4,695 49.43% 4,804 50.57% -109 -1.14% 9,499
Butts 3,026 29.64% 7,183 70.36% -4,157 -40.72% 10,209
Calhoun 1,206 59.35% 826 40.65% 380 18.70% 2,032
Camden 6,807 34.26% 13,063 65.74% -6,256 -31.49% 19,870
Candler 1,131 28.87% 2,787 71.13% -1,656 -42.26% 3,918
Carroll 14,819 31.42% 32,338 68.58% -17,519 -37.16% 47,157
Catoosa 5,985 21.55% 21,792 78.45% -15,807 -56.90% 27,777
Charlton 952 24.42% 2,947 75.58% -1,995 -51.16% 3,899
Chatham 72,550 59.83% 48,707 40.17% 23,843 19.66% 121,257
Chattahoochee 601 45.50% 720 54.50% -119 -9.00% 1,321
Chattooga 1,686 20.47% 6,550 79.53% -4,864 -59.06% 8,236
Cherokee 38,362 30.01% 89,480 69.99% -51,118 -39.98% 127,842
Clarke 33,187 71.84% 13,009 28.16% 20,178 43.68% 46,196
Clay 727 55.50% 583 44.50% 144 11.00% 1,310
Clayton 91,189 88.57% 11,765 11.43% 79,424 77.14% 102,954
Clinch 616 25.09% 1,839 74.91% -1,223 -49.82% 2,455
Cobb 203,876 56.85% 154,714 43.15% 49,162 13.70% 358,590
Coffee 4,082 30.88% 9,137 69.12% -5,055 -38.24% 13,129
Colquitt 3,727 26.51% 10,330 73.49% -6,603 -46.98% 14,057
Columbia 26,545 36.80% 45,588 63.20% -19,043 -26.40% 72,133
Cook 1,895 30.54% 4,310 69.46% -2,415 -38.92% 6,205
Coweta 21,825 32.44% 45,462 67.56% -23,637 -35.12% 67,287
Crawford 1,502 27.96% 3,869 72.04% -2,367 -44.08% 5,371
Crisp 2,702 37.85% 4,436 62.15% -1,734 -24.30% 7,138
Dade 1,111 17.53% 5,227 82.47% -4,116 -64.94% 6,338
Dawson 2,274 15.81% 12,113 84.19% -9,839 -68.38% 14,387
Decatur 4,121 41.02% 5,926 58.98% -1,805 -17.78% 10,047
DeKalb 293,902 84.12% 55,479 15.88% 238,423 68.24% 349,381
Dodge 2,021 28.14% 5,160 71.86% -3,139 -43.72% 7,181
Dooly 1,812 48.40% 1,932 51.60% -120 -3.20% 3,744
Dougherty 22,793 70.98% 9,320 29.02% 13,473 41.96% 32,113
Douglas 40,630 65.14% 21,743 34.86% 18,887 30.28% 62,373
Early 2,172 47.75% 2,377 52.25% -205 -4.50% 4,549
Echols 128 10.79% 1,058 89.21% -930 -78.42% 1,186
Effingham 7,137 25.66% 20,682 74.34% -13,545 -48.68% 27,819
Elbert 2,482 30.97% 5,531 69.03% -3,049 -38.06% 8,013
Emanuel 2,569 30.74% 5,787 69.26% -3,218 -38.52% 8,356
Evans 1,201 32.11% 2,539 67.89% -1,338 -35.78% 3,740
Fannin 2,436 18.13% 11,004 81.88% -8,568 -63.75% 13,440
Fayette 31,297 46.44% 36,094 53.56% -4,167 -7.12% 67,391
Floyd 10,834 30.27% 24,959 69.73% -14,125 -39.46% 35,793
Forsyth 37,687 32.73% 77,451 67.27% -39,764 -34.54% 115,138
Franklin 1,345 14.64% 7,840 85.36% -6,495 -70.72% 9,185
Fulton 354,552 72.54% 134,191 27.46% 220,361 45.08% 488,743
Gilmer 2,697 18.19% 12,132 81.81% -9,435 -63.62% 14,829
Glascock 130 9.53% 1,234 90.47% -1,104 -80.94% 1,364
Glynn 13,981 37.35% 23,448 62.65% -9,467 -25.30% 37,429
Gordon 3,929 19.30% 16,425 80.70% -12,496 -61.40% 20,354
Grady 3,102 33.25% 6,226 66.75% -3,124 -33.50% 9,328
Greene 3,758 35.41% 6,855 64.59% -3,097 -29.18% 11,247
Gwinnett 224,197 60.63% 145,597 39.37% 78,600 21.26% 369,794
Habersham 3,243 18.00% 14,776 82.00% -11,533 -64.00% 18,019
Hall 22,296 28.22% 56,718 71.78% -34,422 -43.56% 79,014
Hancock 2,780 72.43% 1,058 27.57% 1,722 43.84% 3,838
Haralson 1,626 13.37% 10,533 86.63% -8,907 -73.26% 12,159
Harris 5,034 27.52% 13,258 72.48% -8,224 -44.96% 18,292
Hart 2,847 25.42% 8,354 74.58% -5,507 -49.16% 11,201
Heard 801 17.12% 3,877 82.88% -3,076 -65.76% 4,678
Henry 68,576 62.68% 40,824 37.32% 27,752 25.36% 109,400
Houston 29,749 44.81% 36,644 55.19% -6,895 -10.38% 66,393
Irwin 885 24.47% 2,732 75.53% -1,847 -51.06% 3,617
Jackson 6,925 21.25% 25,658 78.75% -18,733 -57.50% 32,583
Jasper 1,683 24.74% 5,120 75.26% -3,437 -50.52% 6,803
Jeff Davis 937 18.44% 4,143 81.56% -3,206 -63.12% 5,080
Jefferson 3,767 54.39% 3,159 45.61% 608 8.78% 6,926
Jenkins 1,169 37.54% 1,945 62.46% -776 -24.92% 3,114
Johnson 1,047 29.28% 2,529 70.72% -1,482 -41.44% 3,576
Jones 4,534 34.00% 8,803 66.00% -4,269 -32.00% 13,337
Lamar 2,428 30.40% 5,558 69.60% -3,130 -39.20% 7,986
Lanier 910 29.97% 2,126 70.03% -1,216 -40.06% 3,036
Laurens 7,435 36.73% 12,806 63.27% -5,371 -26.54% 20,241
Lee 4,240 28.46% 10,657 71.54% -6,417 -43.08% 14,897
Liberty 11,875 64.78% 6,457 35.22% 5,418 29.56% 18,332
Lincoln 1,317 31.21% 2,903 68.79% -1,586 -37.58% 4,220
Long 1,803 38.87% 2,835 61.13% -1,032 -22.26% 4,638
Lowndes 17,382 43.63% 22,455 56.37% -5,073 -12.74% 39,837
Lumpkin 2,868 20.94% 10,831 79.06% -7,963 -58.12% 13,699
Macon 2,685 62.79% 1,591 37.21% 1,094 25.58% 4,276
Madison 3,102 23.49% 10,101 76.51% -6,999 -53.02% 13,203
Marion 1,217 37.90% 1,994 62.10% -777 -24.20% 3,211
McDuffie 3,752 40.64% 5,480 59.36% -1,728 -18.72% 9,232
McIntosh 2,417 40.64% 3,531 59.36% -1,114 -18.72% 5,948
Meriwether 4,036 41.00% 5,808 59.00% -1,772 -19.00% 9,844
Miller 651 26.53% 1,803 73.47% -1,152 -46.94% 2,454
Mitchell 3,569 45.36% 4,300 54.64% -731 -9.28% 7,869
Monroe 4,058 28.75% 10,057 71.25% -5,999 -42.50% 14,115
Montgomery 896 25.41% 2,630 74.59% -1,734 -49.18% 3,526
Morgan 3,129 28.91% 7,696 71.09% -4,567 -42.18% 10,825
Murray 2,028 15.61% 10,966 84.39% -8,938 -68.78% 12,994
Muscogee 45,049 62.99% 26,473 37.01% 18,576 25.98% 71,522
Newton 28,324 58.02% 20,493 41.98% 7,831 16.04% 48,817
Oconee 8,162 32.43% 16,595 65.94% -8,433 -33.51% 25,168
Oglethorpe 2,436 29.96% 5,593 68.79% -3,157 -38.83% 8,131
Paulding 29,704 34.79% 54,525 63.86% -24,821 -29.07% 85,385
Peach 5,920 47.19% 6,502 51.83% -582 -4.64% 12,545
Pickens 2,808 16.41% 14,075 82.23% -11,267 -65.83% 17,116
Pierce 1,100 12.16% 7,899 87.30% -6,799 -75.14% 9,048
Pike 1,505 14.04% 9,127 85.14% -7,622 -71.10% 10,720
Polk 3,658 21.02% 13,589 78.10% -9,931 -57.08% 17,399
Pulaski 1,217 29.98% 2,805 69.11% -1,588 -39.12% 4,059
Putnam 3,448 29.08% 8,291 69.94% -4,843 -40.85% 11,855
Quitman 497 44.94% 604 54.61% -107 -9.67% 1,106
Rabun 1,984 20.74% 7,474 78.11% -5,490 -57.38% 9,568
Randolph 1,671 54.36% 1,391 45.25% 280 9.11% 3,074
Richmond 59,124 67.95% 26,781 30.78% 32,343 37.17% 87,016
Rockdale 31,244 69.92% 13,012 29.12% 18,232 40.80% 44,686
Schley 462 20.31% 1,800 79.12% -1,338 -58.81% 2,275
Screven 2,661 40.15% 3,916 59.08% -1,255 -18.93% 6,628
Seminole 1,254 32.29% 2,611 67.22% -1,357 -34.94% 3,884
Spalding 11,784 39.13% 18,057 59.96% -6,273 -20.83% 30,116
Stephens 2,385 20.07% 9,368 78.82% -6,983 -58.75% 11,885
Stewart 1,182 59.40% 801 40.25% 381 19.15% 1,990
Sumter 6,318 52.00% 5,732 47.18% 586 4.82% 12,150
Talbot 2,114 60.02% 1,392 39.52% 722 20.50% 3,522
Taliaferro 561 60.45% 360 38.79% 201 21.66% 928
Tattnall 2,061 25.19% 6,053 73.97% -3,992 -48.78% 8,183
Taylor 1,387 36.13% 2,418 62.99% -1,031 -26.86% 3,839
Telfair 1,487 34.32% 2,825 65.20% -1,338 -30.88% 4,333
Terrell 2,376 53.80% 2,004 45.38% 372 8.42% 4,416
Thomas 8,708 39.85% 12,954 59.28% -4,246 -19.43% 21,853
Tift 5,322 32.68% 10,784 66.23% -5,462 -33.54% 16,283
Toombs 2,939 26.93% 7,872 72.13% -4,933 -45.20% 10,914
Towns 1,550 19.43% 6,384 80.01% -4,834 -60.58% 7,979
Treutlen 952 30.94% 2,101 68.28% -1,149 -37.34% 3,077
Troup 11,578 38.53% 18,143 60.38% -6,565 -21.85% 30,049
Turner 1,410 37.18% 2,349 61.95% -939 -24.76% 3,792
Twiggs 2,044 45.99% 2,370 53.33% -326 -7.34% 4,444
Union 2,801 18.00% 12,651 81.30% -9,850 -63.30% 15,560
Upson 4,201 32.55% 8,608 66.70% -4,407 -34.15% 12,905
Walker 5,769 19.65% 23,174 78.95% -17,405 -59.29% 29,354
Walton 12,682 24.82% 37,842 74.06% -25,160 -49.24% 51,095
Ware 4,211 29.67% 9,865 69.51% -5,654 -39.84% 14,192
Warren 1,469 55.41% 1,166 43.98% 303 11.43% 2,651
Washington 4,730 50.01% 4,663 49.30% 67 0.71% 9,459
Wayne 2,687 21.03% 9,987 78.16% -7,300 -57.13% 12,778
Webster 639 45.97% 748 53.81% -109 -7.84% 1,390
Wheeler 689 30.15% 1,583 69.28% -894 -39.12% 2,285
White 2,411 16.27% 12,222 82.49% -9,811 -66.22% 14,816
Whitfield 10,670 29.04% 25,636 69.77% -14,966 -40.73% 36,746
Wilcox 862 26.27% 2,403 73.24% -1,541 -46.97% 3,281
Wilkes 2,160 42.95% 2,823 56.13% -663 -13.18% 5,029
Wilkinson 2,075 43.50% 2,664 55.85% -589 -12.35% 4,770
Worth 2,395 25.79% 6,830 73.56% -4,435 -47.77% 9,285
Totals 2,289,113 51.04% 2,195,841 48.96% 93,550 2.0% 4,484,296

Republicans filed two federal and one state lawsuit in December to restrict the January 5 vote. On December 17, Judge Eleanor Louise Ross found that plaintiffs lacked standing based on possible future harm to toss out a consent decree regarding signatures on absentee ballot applications. Judge James Randal Hall threw out another case which tried to block the use of drop boxes for absentee ballots. A third lawsuit, to restrict the use of drop boxes, was heard in state court on December 24.[173]

On December 18, a federal judge threw out a Republican lawsuit alleging that out-of-state residents were voting in the runoff election, as Republican attorney Bill Price has recommended.[174] Another lawsuit was filed against the use of voting machines manufactured by Dominion Voting Systems, alleging that election officials are handling mail-in absentee ballots improperly and illegally.[175]

Judge Leslie Abrams Gardner, sister of Democratic politician Stacey Abrams, of the United States District Court for the Middle District of Georgia rejected the attempted purge of 4,000 voters in Muscogee County and Ben Hill County, Georgia on December 29. The ruling means the voters will be able to participate in the January 5 runoff election.[176] The ruling was amended to allow provisional voting to prevent election-day challenges.[177]

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. The American Action Forum is a 501 organization which usually supports Republican candidates.
  2. The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  3. Poll sponsored by Warnock's campaign.
  4. Poll sponsored by AARP.
  5. Poll sponsored by Matt Lieberman's campaign
  6. This poll's sponsor, DFER, primarily supports Democratic candidates
  7. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  8. Internal poll for Collins
  9. Poll is sponsored by OANN, a far-right television news channel.
  10. This poll is sponsored by End Citizens United, a PAC which has endorsed Democratic candidates who are against the landmark Citizens United court ruling.
  11. Steve Phillips, who sponsored this poll, is a senior fellow at the Democratic-leaning Center for American Progress
  12. Poll conducted for the Speaker of Georgia's House Republican caucus
  13. Internal poll for Loeffler
  14. Americas PAC exclusively supports Republican candidates
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Slowinski (L) with 1%
  3. "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  4. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  5. "Someone else" with 2%
  6. Slowinski (L) with 2%
  7. "Someone else" with 2%
  8. "Other candidate" with 4%; Slowinski (L) with 2%; "No one" with 1%
  9. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  10. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  11. "Someone else" with 2%
  12. Slowinski (L) with 3%; "Other Candidate" with 2%
  13. "Someone else" with 2%
  14. Would not vote with 1%
  15. Includes "Refused"
  16. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  17. Bartell (I), Did not vote, Johnson (R), Johnson-Shealey (D) and "Someone else" with 2%; Dien Winfield (D) with 1%
  18. Includes "Refused"
  19. "Someone else" with 0%
  20. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  21. Includes Undecided
  22. "Someone else" with 2%
  23. Fortuin (G), Johnson-Shealey (D) and Taylor (R) with 1%; Bartell (I), Slade (D) and Stovall (I) with 0%; Buckley (I), Grayson (R), Greene (I), Jackson (R), James (D), Slowinski (L) and Winfield (D) with no voters
  24. Slowinski (L) with 2%; "Other candidate" with 1%
  25. "Someone else" with 1%
  26. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  27. "Someone else" with 0%
  28. "Other Democratic Candidate" with 2%; "Third Party/Write-in" with 1%; "Other Republican Candidate" with 0%
  29. "Other candidate" and Slowinski (L) with 3%; "No one" with 0%
  30. Slowinski (L) with 3%; "Other" with 2%
  31. Slowinski (L) and "Other" with 2%
  32. Would not vote with 1%
  33. Includes "Refused"
  34. Slowinski (L) with 3%; "Other candidate" with 1%
  35. "Other Democratic Candidate" with 3%; "Another Third Party/Write-in" and "Other Republican Candidate" with 1%
  36. Would not vote with 1%; "Other candidate" with 0%
  37. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  38. Johnson-Shealey (D) with 5%; Bartell (I), Dien Winfield (D) and Johnson (R) with 2%; "One of the other candidates" and would not vote with 1%
  39. Slowinski (L) with 5%; Johnson (R) and would not vote with 4%; "Another candidate/still undecided" with 3%; Winfield (D) with 2%
  40. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  41. "Third party candidate" with 1%
  42. "Other candidate" with 5%; Slowinski (L) with 3%
  43. "Other" with 4%; Slowinski (L) with 2%
  44. "Other" with 4%; Slowinski (L) with 2%
  45. "Someone else" with 2%
  46. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  47. "Someone else" with 4%
  48. All other candidates with 5% or less
  49. "Another candidate who qualified to run but isn't listed" with 2%
  50. Bartell (I) with 2%; Slowinski (L) with 1%; "someone else" with 1%
  51. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  52. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  53. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  54. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  55. Johnson (R) with 4%; Winfield (D) with 3%; Bartell (I) with 2%; "refused" with 0%
  56. Democratic candidates have 31% of the vote combined
  57. Bartell with 5%; Johnson (R) with 2%
  58. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  59. "Someone else" with 9%
  60. Includes "Refused"
  61. "Someone else" with 0%
  62. "Someone else" with 8%
  63. "Someone else" with 18%
  64. Likely Republican primary voters, though there is no exclusively Republican primary for Georgia's special election
  65. "Someone else" with 17%
  66. "Someone else" with 18%
  67. "Someone else" with 20%
  68. "Someone else" with 13%
  69. "Someone else" with 7%
  70. "Someone else" with 8%
  71. "Someone else" with 5%
  72. Includes "Refused"
  73. "Someone else" with 0%
  74. "Someone else" with 4%
  75. "Someone else" with 6%
  76. Listed as "other/undecided"
  77. Likely Republican primary voters, though there is no exclusively Republican primary for Georgia's special election
  78. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  79. Likely Republican primary voters, though there is no exclusively Republican primary for Georgia's special election
  80. "It is more important for Republicans to have control of the Senate" as opposed to "It is more important for Democrats to have control of the Senate" with 46%
  81. "It does not matter which party has control of the Senate" with 7%; Undecided with 4%

References

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