Opinion polling for the next Italian general election

In the run-up to the next Italian general election, which will occur no later than 1 June 2023,[lower-alpha 1] various organisations have been carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention.

Results of such opinion polls are displayed in this article. The date range is from after the previous general election, held on 4 March 2018, to the present day. Poll results are reported at the dates when the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Party vote

Starting from the beginning of 2019, some polling agencies have polled Free and Equal (LeU), others The Left (LS), some others both. The two electoral lists, one for the 2018 general election and the other for the 2019 European Parliament election, have slightly different but partially overlapping compositions: the former includes Article One (Art.1), the latter the Communist Refoundation Party (PRC), while both include Italian Left (SI). Some polls also give data separately for Art.1 and SI.

Graphical summary

6-point average trend line of poll results starting from 4 March 2018, with each line corresponding to a political party.
  M5S
  PD
  Lega
  FI
  FdI
  LeU/LS
  +Eu
  NcI
  PaP
  EV
  C!
  A
  IV

2021

Date Polling firm Sample size M5S PD Lega FI FdI LS[lower-alpha 2] +Eu EV C! A IV Other Lead
3-8 Feb SWG 1,200 15.8 19.0 24.0 6.4 16.5 3.7 1.9 1.7 4.0 3.1 3.9 5.0
5 Feb Tecnè 1,000 13.6 19.4 23.8 10.5 16.9 2.9 2.2 1.5 3.5 2.7 3.0 4.4
3–5 Feb Demos & Pi 1,001 15.2 20.9 22.8 7.8 16.9 3.2 2.0 2.8 2.7 5.7 1.9
3 Feb Index 800 14.5 19.6 24.0 6.7 16.6 3.7 2.3 1.9 1.3 3.8 3.1 2.5 4.4
2 Feb EMG 1,482 13.9 20.1 23.9 7.7 15.8 2.8 2.1 2.1 1.1 3.7 4.1 2.7 3.8
1 Feb Euromedia 800 14.1 19.5 24.3 7.7 15.2 3.2 w. A 1.6 4.8 3.5 6.1 4.8
27 Jan–1 Feb SWG 1,200 16.3 19.8 23.3 5.8 15.9 4.0 2.1 2.1 3.6 3.2 3.9 3.5
29 Jan Tecnè 1,000 13.8 19.5 23.9 10.2 17.1 3.0 2.0 1.6 3.3 2.7 2.9 4.4
27–28 Jan Noto 1,000 14.0 20.0 23.5 7.0 17.0 2.7 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.0 4.0 4.1 3.5
27–28 Jan Ipsos 1,000 18.1 19.3 22.0 8.9 15.3 2.9 2.3 3.1 2.3 5.8 2.7
26–28 Jan Termometro Politico 3,000 15.7 19.7 24.2 6.0 16.7 3.2 1.2 1.3 0.5 3.5 3.3 4.7 4.5
25–28 Jan Ixè 1,000 15.4 20.6 23.2 8.8 15.8 3.5 1.5 2.0 3.7 2.1 3.4 2.5
27 Jan Index 800 14.6 19.2 24.3 6.5 16.7 3.7 2.4 2.0 1.1 3.7 2.9 2.9 5.1
26–27 Jan Winpoll 1,000 13.7 19.6 24.3 6.9 18.7 1.7 0.7 1.6 0.9 3.2 2.4 6.3 4.7
25–27 Jan Lab2101 803 14.6 20.2 25.7 6.6 16.7 3.8 1.9 1.6 3.6 2.9 2.4 5.4
26 Jan EMG 1,564 14.0 20.0 24.1 7.6 16.1 2.7 2.1 2.1 1.1 3.6 4.1 2.5 4.1
23–25 Jan Demopolis 2,000 15.0 20.2 23.0 8.8 17.2 3.8 2.9 2.8 6.3 2.8
20–25 Jan SWG 1,200 15.7 19.6 23.5 6.3 16.3 3.8 1.9 2.2 4.0 3.0 3.7 3.9
22 Jan Tecnè 1,000 14.1 20.2 23.2 10.2 16.8 3.1 1.8 1.7 3.4 2.5 3.0 3.0
19–21 Jan Termometro Politico 2,100 15.3 20.2 23.8 6.5 17.3 3.0 1.2 1.0 0.6 3.3 3.3 4.5 3.6
20 Jan Euromedia 800 14.3 19.5 24.8 8.0 15.5 2.7 1.6 1.4 3.5 2.8 5.2 5.3
15–19 Jan Index 1,200 15.0 19.5 23.2 6.5 17.0 3.6 2.5 1.9 1.2 3.8 2.9 2.9 3.7
19 Jan EMG 1,524 14.1 20.1 23.7 7.5 16.4 2.8 2.0 2.1 1.0 3.5 4.0 2.8 3.6
15–18 Jan Demopolis 2,000 15.5 20.8 23.0 8.0 17.0 3.7 2.8 2.6 6.6 2.2
14–18 Jan SWG 1,200 15.8 20.1 22.3 6.4 16.5 4.0 2.2 2.0 4.3 2.7 3.7 2.2
16–17 Jan Tecnè 1,003 14.3 20.2 23.2 10.4 16.6 3.4 2.0 1.6 3.2 2.2 2.9 3.0
14 Jan Index 800 14.6 19.2 23.7 6.8 16.9 3.5 2.5 2.0 1.1 3.7 3.5 2.5 4.5
14 Jan Noto 1,000 14.0 19.5 24.0 7.5 17.0 2.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 3.5 3.5 8.0 4.5
13–14 Jan Ipsos 1,000 16.3 19.9 23.1 10.2 15.0 3.5 2.5 1.5 3.3 2.4 2.3 3.2
10–13 Jan BiDiMedia 1,555 12.9 21.8 23.5 7.5 16.4 3.2 1.4 1.7 0.7 3.1 2.7 5.1 1.7
12 Jan EMG 1,684 13.9 19.8 24.0 7.4 16.2 2.7 2.2 2.2 1.0 3.6 4.2 2.8 4.2
11–12 Jan Euromedia 1,000 14.1 19.4 23.2 7.5 15.5 2.8 2.2 1.6 4.2 3.0 6.5 3.8
11 Jan Tecnè 800 14.1 20.0 23.4 10.5 16.6 3.1 1.9 1.5 3.1 2.8 3.0 3.4
7–11 Jan SWG 1,200 14.7 19.4 23.2 5.9 17.2 3.8 2.1 2.4 1.0 4.1 2.9 3.3 3.8
2–5 Jan Lab2101 1,000 14.4 20.4 25.7 6.9 16.6 3.6 1.7 1.8 3.2 2.7 3.0 5.3
4 Jan Tecnè 1,000 14.0 20.1 23.2 10.4 16.8 3.2 1.8 1.5 3.2 2.9 2.9 3.1

2020

2019

2018

  1. While elections in Italy are usually held on a Sunday or Sunday and Monday, there's no constitutional provision to do so; therefore, the latest possibile date for a general election is always the 70th day after the expiration of the previous Parliament's five-year term.
  2. Some polls include LeU instead of LS.
  3. Polls before 21 November refer to We Are Europeans (SE).
  4. Some polls have included former LeU member parties MDP or SI or both separately, instead of LeU. Starting from March 2019, some polls have include LS, a joint list formed mainly by SI and PRC.
  5. In the 2018 Italian general election PaP was a joint list, including PRC and PCI, which left the alliance a few months later. Some polls have included these two parties within PaP and/or CP.

Coalition vote

Graphical summary

6-point average trend line of poll results starting from 4 March 2018, with each line corresponding to a coalition.
  M5S
  Others (including LeU or LS)

2019

Date Polling firm Sample size Centre-right M5S Centre-left LeU[lower-alpha 1] / LS[lower-alpha 2] Others Lead
6 Nov Index 800 48.7 43.9 7.4 4.8
30 Oct Tecnè 1,000 51.1 41.0 7.9 10.1
22–24 Oct Scenari Politici – Winpoll 1,500 47.9 14.7 30.1 2.0 5.3 17.8
21 Oct Tecnè 1,000 49.2 42.7 8.1 6.5
18–20 Sep Quorum – YouTrend 1,000 47.2 46.2 6.6 1.0
16–17 Sep Ixè 1,000 45.6 21.9 27.2 3.2 2.1 18.4
9–10 Sep Ixè 1,000 45.3 22.0 28.2 2.5 2.1 17.1
7 Sep Piepoli 44.0 20.5 33.0 2.5 11.5
2–3 Sep Ixè 1,000 44.5 22.3 28.5 2.4 2.3 16.0
26–28 Aug Ipsos 998 45.6 24.2 25.5 2.5 2.2 20.1
21–23 Aug Scenari Politici – Winpoll 1,500 48.6 16.6 28.6 2.3 3.9 20.0
20–21 Aug GPF[lower-alpha 3] 609 46.2 23.1 29.1 1.6 17.1
19–21 Aug IZI 1,008 52.4 16.0 31.6 N/A 20.8
12 Aug GPF 802 46.8 23.7 28.0 1.5 18.8
30–31 Jul Ipsos 1,000 50.6 17.8 25.9 2.0 3.7 24.7
27–30 Jul Scenari Politici – Winpoll 1,500 53.0 14.8 27.3 1.9 3.0 25.7
22 Jul Euromedia 1,000 50.2 18.0 25.4 2.3 4.1 24.8
16–18 Jul Ipsos 1,000 50.1 17.4 27.1 1.8 3.6 23.0
15–18 Jul GPF 919 46.7 24.2 27.3 1.8 19.4
8–10 Jul GPF 807 47.3 23.7 27.1 1.9 20.2
29 Jun–4 Jul Bidimedia 1,698 48.1 18.1 28.7 1.9 3.2 19.4
26 Jun Noto 51.5 17.5 27.0 1.0 3.0 24.5
25–26 Jun Ipsos 1,000 49.3 17.3 27.1 1.9 4.4 22.2
18 Jun Noto 50.0 17.5 26.5 1.5 4.5 23.5
11 Jun Noto 50.5 18.0 26.5 1.5 3.5 22.0
10 Jun Euromedia 800 48.4 18.0 28.6 2.0 3.0 19.8
10 Jun Piepoli 505 49.0 17.0 28.5 1.5 4.0 20.5
3–7 Jun Termometro Politico 1,700 48.7 18.0 28.4 1.2 3.7 20.3
30 May Piepoli 1,000 50.0 17.0 28.0 2.0 3.0 22.0
28–29 May Scenari Politici – Winpoll 1,500 51.0 16.5 28.3 1.4 2.8 22.7
26 May EP Election 50.1 17.1 28.1 1.7 3.0 22.0
7–9 May Scenari Politici – Winpoll 1,500 47.4 22.7 25.8 2.1 2.0 21.6
6–9 May Ixè 1,000 45.9 20.5 25.9 3.4 4.3 20.0
5–9 May Termometro Politico 6,000 45.9 23.0 25.4 1.9 3.8 20.5
6–8 May Bidimedia 1,455 46.4 22.4 25.9 2.5 2.8 20.5
6–8 May Ipsos 1,000 44.4 24.9 25.5 2.1 3.1 18.9
6–8 May Demos & Pi 1,007 46.4 22.6 24.5 3.1 3.4 21.9
7 May Noto 46.5 21.0 24.5 2.0 6.0 22.0
30 Apr Piepoli 504 47.0 22.0 25.0 2.0 4.0 22.0
30 Apr Euromedia 800 48.4 20.6 25.5 1.5 4.0 22.9
30 Apr Noto 46.5 20.0 25.0 2.5 6.0 21.5
23 Apr Noto 48.0 20.5 24.0 2.0 5.5 24.0
18–23 Apr Scenari Politici – Winpoll 1,500 50.5 20.1 25.3 1.9 2.2 25.2
20 Apr Ipsos 50.2 22.3 23.0 2.1 2.4 27.2
18 Apr Tecnè 1,000 48.5 22.0 25.5 4.0 23.0
16 Apr Piepoli 503 47.5 22.5 25.0 3.5 1.5 22.5
16 Apr Euromedia 800 49.1 20.8 24.5 3.0 2.6 24.6
16 Apr Noto 48.5 20.0 24.5 3.0 4.0 24.0
2–10 Apr Termometro Politico 1,500 47.4 22.6 26.1 2.3 1.6 21.3
9 Apr EMG 1,845 46.8 22.3 29.0 1.9 17.8
9 Apr Noto 48.0 20.0 25.0 1.5 5.5 23.0
5–8 Apr Scenari Politici – Winpoll 1,500 51.1 20.5 25.3 1.7 1.4 25.8
2–4 Apr Ipsos 1,000 49.6 23.3 22.8 2.0 2.3 26.6
3 Apr Piepoli 504 47.0 22.5 24.0 3.0 3.5 23.0
3 Apr Euromedia 800 47.9 19.4 25.0 3.9 3.8 22.9
2 Apr EMG 1,725 46.5 22.7 27.4 3.4 19.1
2 Apr Noto 48.0 20.5 25.5 1.5 4.5 22.5
29 Mar–1 Apr Ixè 1,000 45.4 19.1 26.4 3.2 5.9 19.0
25 Mar–1 Apr Termometro Politico 4,000 46.7 21.3 26.8 3.6 1.6 19.9
28 Mar Tecnè 1,002 49.1 21.0 25.0 4.9 24.1
26–27 Mar Index[lower-alpha 3] 800 49.2 21.0 29.8 N/A 19.4
26 Mar EMG 1,865 46.8 22.9 27.4 2.9 19.4
26 Mar Noto 48.0 21.0 25.5 2.0 3.5 22.5
22–25 Mar Scenari Politici – Winpoll 1,500 50.9 20.3 25.7 1.5 1.6 25.2
21 Mar Piepoli 48.0 23.0 23.5 2.0 3.5 24.5
20–21 Mar Euromedia 800 49.2 19.8 25.3 2.2 3.5 23.9
19 Mar EMG 1,785 46.3 23.4 27.5 2.8 18.8
19 Mar Noto 48.5 21.0 25.0 1.5 4.0 23.5
12 Mar EMG 1,845 45.9 23.8 27.0 3.3 18.9
12 Mar Noto 48.5 21.0 25.0 1.5 4.0 23.5
12 Mar Piepoli 500 47.0 24.5 23.0 2.5 3.0 22.5
6–7 Mar Tecnè 2,000 48.3 22.2 24.0 5.5 24.3
5 Mar EMG 1,803 46.8 23.2 26.9 3.1 19.9
5 Mar Noto 48.5 21.0 24.0 1.5 5.0 24.5
1–3 Mar Scenari Politici – Winpoll 1,500 49.7 21.6 25.1 1.9 1.7 24.6
27–28 Feb Tecnè 1,000 50.4 22.0 22.8 4.8 27.6
26–28 Feb Ipsos 1,000 49.0 21.2 23.5 2.4 3.9 25.5
22–27 Feb Bidimedia 1,084 46.4 22.7 23.9 2.5 4.5 22.5
26 Feb EMG 1,603 47.5 23.8 25.2 3.5 22.3
25 Feb Piepoli 505 48.0 25.0 22.5 1.5 3.0 23.0
25 Feb Euromedia 800 50.7 21.8 23.1 1.9 2.5 27.6
24–25 Feb Tecnè 1,005 49.6 22.2 22.7 5.5 26.9
19 Feb EMG 1,802 46.9 24.8 24.9 3.4 22.0
19 Feb Noto 50.5 21.0 22.0 2.0 4.5 28.5
14–17 Feb Scenari Politici – Winpoll 1,500 50.2 23.2 23.2 1.8 1.6 27.0
12 Feb EMG 46.5 24.6 25.1 3.8 21.4
12 Feb Piepoli 500 46.0 27.0 20.5 3.5 3.0 19.0
12 Feb Euromedia 800 49.8 24.0 20.5 3.4 2.3 25.8
12 Feb Noto 49.0 22.0 23.0 2.0 4.0 26.0
6–7 Feb Ipsos 1,000 46.9 25.4 21.2 2.2 4.3 21.5
4–7 Feb Tecnè 16,000 48.7 25.1 20.8 5.4 23.6
2–6 Feb Bidimedia 1,113 44.4 24.9 23.6 2.6 4.5 19.5
5 Feb EMG 1,803 45.1 25.1 25.7 4.1 19.4
30 Jan Noto 47.0 24.0 22.5 2.0 4.5 23.0
29 Jan EMG 1,786 44.8 25.8 25.5 3.9 19.0
29 Jan Piepoli 503 45.5 27.5 20.0 3.0 4.0 18.0
29 Jan Euromedia 800 48.5 24.7 20.6 3.4 2.8 23.8
22 Jan Piepoli 503 45.5 28.0 19.5 2.5 4.5 17.5
22 Jan EMG 1,801 44.4 26.5 24.6 4.5 17.9
15–17 Jan Ipsos 1,000 46.9 25.4 21.5 6.2 21.5
15 Jan EMG 1,794 44.6 26.6 24.8 4.0 18.0
15 Jan Piepoli 505 45.5 28.0 20.0 2.5 4.0 17.5
15 Jan Euromedia 800 47.2 24.7 20.2 3.1 4.8 22.5
15 Jan Noto 45.5 23.0 22.5 2.5 6.5 22.5
13 Jan Noto 48.0 23.0 22.5 2.0 4.5 25.0
9–10 Jan Tecnè 2,000 46.8 25.5 21.5 6.2 21.3
7–10 Jan Bidimedia 1,096 43.8 25.6 23.9 2.4 4.3 18.2
8 Jan Piepoli 505 45.5 28.0 20.0 2.5 4.0 17.5
8 Jan EMG 1,540 44.2 26.1 25.5 4.2 18.1

2018

  1. After its dissolution on 14 November 2018, some polls might include MDP or SI or both, instead of LeU.
  2. Starting from the foundation of The Left (LS) as a coalition between SI and PRC, some polls started listing LS instead of LeU.
  3. Centre-left includes LeU, PaP and other left-wing parties; centre-right includes all other right-wing parties.

Seat projections

Chamber of Deputies

  • During the 18th legislature, the Chamber was composed of 630 seats. 316 seats were needed for a majority.
  • Following the 2020 Italian constitutional referendum, the Chamber was reduced to 400 seats. 201 seats were needed for a majority.
  • In some polls only the 392 (previously 618) constituencies in Italy proper are allocated, while the 8 (previously 12) abroad constituencies are omitted.
Date Polling firm Centre-right M5S Centre-left LeU Others Lead Majority
11 Jan 2021 YouTrend 248 41 87 13 11 161 +48
21 Sep 2020 After a constitutional referendum, the number of seats in the Chamber of Deputies is reduced from 630 to 400 starting from the next general election.
26 Aug 2019 Demopolis 410 92 120 0 8 290 +94
9 Aug 2019 Ipsos 413 88 115 0 2 298 +97
9 Aug 2019 YouTrend 416 81 119 0 2 297 +100
19 Jul 2019 YouTrend 413 81 122 0 2 291 +97
26 May 2019 Bidimedia (EP election) 404 79 135 0 0 269 +88
26 May 2019 Cattaneo (EP election) 415 81 122 0 0 293 +99
26 May 2019 CISE (EP election) 429 76 132 0 0 297 +113
26 May 2019 YouTrend (EP election) 406 78 134 0 0 272 +90
8–11 Apr 2019 Bidimedia
without tossups[lower-alpha 1]
397 106 115 0 0 282 +81
Bidimedia 385 105 113 0 15 272 +69
26 Mar 2019 YouTrend 382 127 107 0 1 255 +66
27 Oct 2018 YouTrend 338 187 90 0 1 149 +22
4 March 2018 General Election 265 227 122 14 2 38 –51

Senate of the Republic

  • During the 18th legislature, the Senate was composed of 315 electable seats plus 6 senators for life. 161 seats were needed for a majority.
  • Following the 2020 Italian constitutional referendum, the Senate was reduced to 200 seats, plus 6 senators for life. 104 seats were needed for a majority.
  • In some polls only the 196 (previously 309) constituencies in Italy proper are allocated, while the 4 (previously 6) abroad constituencies are omitted.
Date Polling firm Centre-right M5S Centre-left LeU Others Lead Majority
11 Jan 2021 YouTrend 124 24 43 3 6 81 +24
21 Sep 2020 After a constitutional referendum, the number of electable seats in the Senate is reduced from 315 to 200 starting from the next general election.
9 Aug 2019 YouTrend 210 40 57 0 2 153 +49
19 Jul 2019 YouTrend 208 40 59 0 2 149 +47
26 May 2019 YouTrend (EP election) 206 41 60 0 2 146 +45
26 Mar 2019 YouTrend 190 63 55 0 1 126 +29
27 Oct 2018 YouTrend 168 91 45 0 1 73 +7
4 March 2018 General Election 137 112 60 4 2 25 –24
  1. Constituencies are considered tossups if the lead is less than the margin of error.

See also

References

  • "PCM Sondaggi Politico Elettorali" [PCM Political Electoral Opinion Polls] (in Italian). Presidency of the Council of Ministers, Department of Information and Publications. n.d. Retrieved 18 January 2018.
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