2021 Baden-Württemberg state election

The 2021 Baden-Württemberg state election will be held on 14 March 2021 to elect the 17th Landtag of Baden-Württemberg.[1] The current government is coalition of Alliance 90/The Greens and the Christian Democratic Union led by Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann.

Next Baden-Württemberg state election
14 March 2021
All 120 seats in the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg (plus overhang and leveling seats)
61+ seats needed for a majority
 
Candidate Winfried Kretschmann Susanne Eisenmann Bernd Gögel
Party Green CDU AfD
Leader's seat Nürtingen (1st) – Enz (2nd)
Last election 47 seats, 30.3% 42 seats, 27.0% 23 seats, 15.1%
 
Candidate Andreas Stoch Hans-Ulrich Rülke
Party SPD FDP
Leader's seat Heidenheim (2nd) Pforzheim (2nd)
Last election 19 seats, 12.7% 12 seats, 8.3%
Constituencies to be contested in the election.
Incumbent Minister-President

Winfried Kretschmann
Green

Election date

The period of the 16th Landtag formally ends on 30 April 2021. The election of the 17th Landtag must take place before this date. On 24 March 2020, the state government designated 14 March 2021 as the date for the next election, in accordance with Section 19 of the State Parliament Election Act.[1]

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 70 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 50 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation, distributed in each of Baden-Württemberg's four government districts. Unlike other states, Baden-Württemberg does not use party lists to fill proportional seats; instead, they are filled by the best-performing candidates who failed to be elected in the single-member constituencies. Candidates elected in this manner are listed as winning a "second mandate" (Zweitmandat) in the constituency in which they ran. The minimum size of the Landtag is 120 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are excluded.[1]

Background
Main article: 2016 Baden-Württemberg state election

In the previous election held on 13 March 2016, The Greens became the largest party for the first time in any German state, winning 30.3% of votes cast. The CDU lost 12 percentage points, falling to second place on 27.0%. Alternative for Germany contested their first state election in Baden-Württemberg, placing third with 15.1%. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) lost almost half its voteshare and finished with 12.7%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) won 8.3%.

The Greens had led a coalition with the SPD since 2011, but this government lost its majority in the election. The Greens subsequently formed a coalition with the CDU, which took office as Cabinet Kretschmann II.

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the 16th Landtag of Baden-Württemberg.

Name Ideology Lead
candidate		 Leader(s) 2016 result
Votes (%) Seats
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen		 Green politics Winfried Kretschmann Sandra Detzer &
Oliver Hildenbrand (co-leaders)
Winfried Kretschmann (Minister-President)		 30.3%
47 / 143
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands		 Christian democracy Susanne Eisenmann Thomas Strobl 27.0%
42 / 143
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland		 German nationalism
Right-wing populism		 Bernd Gögel Alice Weidel 15.1%
23 / 143
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands		 Social democracy Andreas Stoch Andreas Stoch 12.7%
19 / 143
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei		 Classical liberalism Hans-Ulrich Rülke Michael Theurer 8.3%
12 / 143

In addition to the parties already represented in the Landtag, ten other parties will contest the election:[2]

Campaign

Lead candidates

On 29 May 2019, Susanne Eisenmann was confirmed as the CDU's lead candidate for the election. She currently serves as state Minister for Education, Youth, and Sports.[3]

On 12 September 2019, Winfried Kretschmann stated that he will stand as the lead candidate for The Greens in the 2021 election, seeking a third term as Minister-President.[4]

On 1 February 2020, state party leader Andreas Stoch was nominated as the SPD's lead candidate for the election.[5]

On 8 December 2019, the FDP state executive nominated Hans-Ulrich Rülke as their preferred lead candidate for the election. He was formally selected at a party conference in July 2020.[6] Rülke has served as leader of the FDP Landtag faction since 2009, and was the party's lead candidate in the 2016 election.[7]

In August 2020, AfD parliamentary group leader Bernd Gögel advocated against the selection of a lead candidate for the election. He stated that due to the party's position and the state's unusual electoral system, the lead candidate might fall short of election to the Landtag. "If the top candidate missed entry, that would be embarrassing."[8] In January 2021, Gögel defeated deputy parliamentary group leader Emil Sänze to become lead candidate after four rounds of voting in an online member survey.[9]

On 6 December 2020, The Left nominated state spokeswoman Sahra Mirow as their lead candidate for the election.[10]

Opinion polling

Party polling
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 Grüne CDU AfD SPD FDP Linke Others Lead
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1–4 Feb 2021 1,032 34 28 11 10 9 3 5 6
INSA 5–11 Jan 2021 1,010 30 30 12 12 8 4 4 Tie
Infratest dimap 14–16 Dec 2020 1,001 35 30 11 10 7 3 4 5
INSA 10–16 Nov 2020 1,001 29 31 12 11 7 5 5 2
Infratest dimap 8–13 Oct 2020 1,001 34 29 11 11 6 4 5 5
INSA 2–9 Sep 2020 1,000 28 31 12 12 7 5 5 3
Infratest dimap 27–28 Apr 2020 1,003 34 30 12 11 6 3 4 4
INSA 15–20 Apr 2020 1,523 29 31 11 13 7 4 5 2
Infratest dimap 5–10 Mar 2020 1,001 36 23 14 11 7 5 4 13
INSA 23–28 Oct 2019 1,036 30 27 13 11 9 4 6 3
Infratest dimap 16–17 Sep 2019 1,004 38 26 12 8 8 3 5 12
INSA 6–8 May 2019 1,040 28 27 12 11 10 6 6 1
Infratest dimap 20–26 Mar 2019 1,002 32 28 11 12 9 4 4 4
INSA 7–12 Feb 2019 1,006 29 27 12 13 9 5 5 2
Forsa 29 Jan–1 Feb 2019 1,007 33 23 13 9 9 6 7 10
Infratest dimap 5–10 Sep 2018 1,003 29 28 15 11 7 7 3 1
INSA 1–6 Sep 2018 1,046 27 25 18 12 9 5 4 2
Forsa 8–22 Feb 2018 1,003 32 27 12 12 9 4 4 5
Infratest dimap 26–30 Jan 2018 1,003 29 29 12 12 8 6 4 Tie
Infratest dimap 3–7 Mar 2017 1,004 27 28 11 20 7 4 3 1
Infratest dimap 9–13 Sep 2016 1,001 31 26 17 13 7 3 3 5
2016 state election 13 Mar 2016 – 30.3 27.0 15.1 12.7 8.3 2.9 3.7 3.3

Minister-President polling
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
None/Unsure Lead
Kretschmann
Grüne		 Strobl
CDU		 Eisenmann
CDU
Infratest dimap 16–17 Sep 2019 1,004 69 – 13 9 56
Infratest dimap 20–26 Mar 2019 1,002 63 17 – 12 46
Forsa 29 Jan–1 Feb 2019 1,007 59 5 – – 54
Infratest dimap 5–10 Sep 2018 1,003 67 14 – 10 53

Notes

    References
    1. "Landtagswahl 2021". Baden-Württemberg Ministry for the Interior, Digitalisation, and Migration.
    2. "Which parties are standing for election?". Baden-Württemberg State Returning Officer. 22 January 2021.
    3. "Volle Understützung für Eisenmann". Tagblatt.de. 29 May 2019.
    4. "Winfried Kretschmann will bei Landtagswahl 2021 erneut antreten". Spiegel Online. 12 September 2019.
    5. "Stoch soll Südwest-SPD in Landtagswahl 2021 führen". stimme.de. 1 February 2020.
    6. "Group leader Rülke leads the southwest FDP in state elections". Schwäbische Zeitung. 18 July 2020.
    7. "Baden-Württemberg: FDP-Vorstand für Rülke als Spitzenkandidat für Landtagswahl". n-tv.de. 8 December 2019.
    8. "Gögel against the creation of an AfD top candidate". N-tv.de. 18 August 2020.
    9. "AfD has chosen Gögel as the top candidate in the fourth attempt". N-tv.de. 31 January 2021.
    10. "Sahra Mirow nominated as the top candidate of The Left". Rhein-Neckar-Zeitung. 6 December 2020.
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