2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election
The 2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election will be held no later than August–November 2021 to elect the 8th Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.[1] The current government is a coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by Minister-President Manuela Schwesig.
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All 71 seats in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (plus overhang and leveling seats) 36+ seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Election date
The Landtag is elected for a period of five years in accordance with Article 27 of the Constitution of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. An election may be held between 58 and 61 months after the first sitting of the previous Landtag. As the 7th Landtag first sat on 4 October 2016, the election must be held between 4 August to 4 November 2021. It must take place on a Sunday.[2]
Electoral system
The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 36 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 35 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Landtag is 71 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are excluded from the Landtag.[1]
Background
In the previous election held on 4 September 2016, the SPD remained the largest party with 30.6% of the vote, a loss of 5.0 percentage points. Alternative for Germany (AfD) contested their first election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, placing second with 20.8%. The CDU won 19.0%, a loss of 4.0 points, while The Left won 13.2%, a loss of 5.2 points.
The SPD–CDU coalition which had governed since 2006 retained its majority and was renewed for a third term.
Parties
The table below lists parties currently represented in the 7th Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
| Name | Ideology | Lead candidate |
Leader(s) | 2016 result | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||
| SPD | Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands |
Social democracy | Manuela Schwesig | 30.6% | 26 / 71 | ||
| AfD | Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland |
German nationalism Right-wing populism |
Leif-Erik Holm | 20.8% | 18 / 71 | ||
| CDU | Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands |
Christian democracy | Michael Sack | Michael Sack | 18.0% | 16 / 71 | |
| Linke | The Left Die Linke |
Democratic socialism | Simone Oldenburg | Torsten Koplin Wenke Brüdgam |
13.2% | 11 / 71 | |
Campaign
Lead candidates
On 7 August 2020, the state CDU elected Michael Sack, district administrator of Vorpommern-Greifswald, as its new leader. He was also selected as the party's lead candidate for the 2021 state election.[3]
On 28 January 2021, parliamentary group leader Simone Oldenburg was nominated as lead candidate for The Left.[4]
Opinion polling
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
SPD | AfD | CDU | Linke | Grüne | FDP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forsa | 12–15 Jan 2021 | 1,002 | 26 | 14 | 24 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| Infratest dimap | 18–21 Nov 2020 | 1,000 | 27 | 15 | 27 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 6 | Tie |
| Infratest dimap | 3–6 Jun 2020 | 1,004 | 24 | 15 | 29 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Forsa | 2–10 Jan 2020 | 1,002 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 1 |
| Forsa | 18–23 Sep 2019 | 1,002 | 22 | 20 | 21 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| Forsa | 4–11 Jan 2019 | 1,007 | 22 | 18 | 22 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 8 | Tie |
| Forsa | 24 May–28 Jun 2018 | 1,002 | 25 | 22 | 18 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| Forsa | 2–11 Jan 2018 | 1,001 | 28 | 19 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 8 |
| INSA | 30 Jun–14 Jul 2017 | 1,608 | 31.5 | 20.5 | 22.0 | 13.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 9.5 |
| Forsa | 9–16 Jan 2017 | 1,002 | 32 | 18 | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11 |
| 2016 state election | 4 Sep 2016 | – | 30.6 | 20.8 | 18.0 | 13.2 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 9.8 |
Notes
- Leif-Erik Holm was elected on the AfD list in the 2016 election, but resigned from the Landtag in November 2017.
- Lead candidate, not party leader.
References
- "Landtag MV". Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag.
- "Landtagswahl 2021 in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern". State Office for Internal Administration/State Returning Officer.
- "New CDU state chief also top candidate for state elections". N-tv.de. 7 August 2020.
- "Oldenburg shall be top candidate of The Left". Norddeutscher Rundfunk. 28 January 2021.