Climate change in Kenya

Analysis of climate trends in Kenya's Arid and Semi Arid (ASAL) areas shows an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall between 1977 and 2014.[6] Climate change impacts are predicted to be particularly pronounced in ASALs where the economy and rural livelihoods are highly dependent on climate-sensitive activities, such as pastoralism and rainfed cultivation.

Köppen climate classification map for 1980–2016

Predicted Köppen climate classification map for 2071–2100

Increased temperatures, rainfall variability and strong winds associated with tropical cyclones have combined to create favorable conditions for the breeding of insects and pests. For instance, in early 2020 some parts of Kenya and neighboring East African Countries faced massive swarms of locusts.[4] Even if directly attributing specific infestations to climate change is difficult, climate change is known to be capable of changing the feeding and outbreak dynamics of some insect species.

Around 17% – 4,600 hectares (11,000 acres) – of Mombasa would be threatened by a sea level rise of 30 centimetres (12 in).[5]

River Shaba in Shaba National Reserve – one of the water resources that will be affected by climate change in Kenya

The replenishment of groundwater reservoirs, a major source of drinking water in Africa, is being threatened by a reduction in precipitation.[7] Rainfall levels between March and May/June decreased in eastern Africa from at least the 1980s onwards, and monsoon rain decreased between 1948 to 2009 in the Horn of Africa.[8] The annual flow of water from rivers passing through East Africa, such as the Nile, will decrease as a result of climate change. Increasing drought and desertification is expected to cause an increased scarcity of freshwater.[9] While international standards suggest that 1,000 m³ of water should be available per person, only 586 m³ was available in 2010, and this may fall to 293 m³ by 2050. The shrinking of Mount Kenya's glaciers has exacerbated water shortages. Rivers that once flowed year round due to glacial run-off now flow seasonally, aggravating conflicts over water resources.[5]

Climate change may significantly disrupt the ecosystem services involved in agriculture, such as by affecting species distribution, inter-species relationships, and altering the effectiveness of management regimes.[10] Such services are also needed by the $2.5 billion tourism sector.[5]^:3 Kenya's wildlife species are expected to be affected in a variety of ways as the climate changes, with changes in temperature and rainfall affecting seasonal events and species ranges.[11]

Forest cover 7.4 percent of Kenya's land, and provide services including improving water quality, preventing erosion, and absorbing greenhouse gases, in addition to being habitats for other wildlife. Around 5,000 hectares of forest is lost annually.[12] From 1990 to 2015, forest cover declined by 25% (824,115 hectares), which amounts to 33,000 hectares per year.[13] This reduces both the ecosystem services the forests provide, including by diminishing wood yield and quality, and the biodiversity they support. Climate change may impede the recovery of these forests. It adversely affects forest regenerative capacity, limiting tree growth and survival, as well as increasing pest and pathogen range. There is also an increased risk and severity of forest fires as temperatures increase and droughts increase in length.[14]^:16 Other affected habitats are coral reefs and mangroves, whose ecosystem services include protection from storm surges, providing opportunities for eco-tourism, and sustaining fisheries. Both are directly affected by increasing temperatures and rising sea levels.[5]^:3

The two most important sectors within the Kenyan economy, agriculture and tourism, are both highly vulnerable to effects of climate change.[5] A drought lasting from 2008 to 2011 caused an estimated $12.1 billion in damage.[15] Food insecurity caused be droughts from 2014 – 2022 affected approximately 3.4 million people while in 2018, about 500,000 people lost access to water.[16]

With a population of 48.5 million people,[17] Kenya is the largest economy in East and Central Africa, and serves as a diplomatic, communications, financial and trade hub within the region.[18][19] Economic damage caused by climate variability and extreme weather may equate to 2.6% of GDP by 2030.[5]

Climate change is already affecting the country's agricultural sector,[20][21] which is responsible for over 33 percent of Kenya’s GDP and is the primary source of sustenance for 60% of the population.[5] Three quarters of Kenya's farming produce comes from small scale farmers.[22] In some areas of Kenya temperatures can exceed 35 °C (95 °F), at which the heat is damaging to maize, a staple crop in Kenya.[5]

Kenya is one of the world's largest producers of tea, with the tea sector accounting for about a quarter of total export earnings and 4% of GDP.[23] The industry provides rural jobs that are key to the reduction of rural-urban migration, but areas currently used to cultivate tea are expected to experience increased climate driven stresses.[10]

High temperatures are also expected to increase pest and disease loads in domesticated animals, especially in arid and semi-arid (ASALs) regions.[5] Livestock trends in ASALs between 1977 and 2016 show cattle declined by 26.5%, while sheep and goats increase by 76% and camels by 13.3%. Climate change could result in the loss of 52% of the ASAL cattle population (or 1.7 million cattle) at a cost of US$ 340–680 million to the economy.[6]

A number of startups, non profits and companies are working to address climate change-related issues.[24]

Kenya's manufacturing sector, which produces good for both domestic use and exports, is one of the largest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Accounting for almost 10% of GDP in 2010, and employing 13% of formal sector labor in 2012,[25] its output was valued at over Kshs 1 trillion in 2014.[26] Consuming around 60% of electricity generated in the country, manufacturing produces about 10% of Kenya's greenhouse gas emissions.[25]

Kenya’s National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) identifies some impacts of climate change on the manufacturing sector:[25]

• Energy fluctuations or blackouts due to interruptions of energy supply arising from lower annual rainfall and severe droughts
• Greater resource scarcity such as water and raw materials due to climate variations and increasing scarcity of water
• Greater risk of plant, product and infrastructure damage and supply chain disruptions from extreme weather events such as heat waves, floods, droughts, cyclones and storms
• Higher costs of production due to unstable supply of electricity, and higher insurance premiums

The Arid and Semi Arid areas host 38% of the population, and produce 12% of GDP.[27] [14] Poverty rates in northern ASALs remains above 80%, despite overall decreasing national poverty rates.[5]

In urban areas, increasing population and informal settlement size is exposing more people to heat, flooding, and water scarcity. The consequences of climate change have impacts marginalized communities, women and the youth.[3]

Different effects caused or exacerbated by climate change, such as heat, drought, and floods, negatively affect human health.[14]^:12 The risk of vector and water borne diseases will rise.[28]^:1 83 million people are expected to be at risk of malaria alone by 2070,[28]^:3 a disease which is already responsible for 5% of deaths in children under the age of five and causes large expense.[5]^:4 Dengue fever is similarly expected to increase by 2070.[28]^:3

Among people aged 65 and over, heat stress-related mortality is expected to increase from 2 deaths per 100,000 per year in 1990 to 45 per 100,000 by 2080.[5]^:4[28]^:4 Under a low-emissions scenario, this may be limited to just 7 deaths per 100,000 in 2080. Under a high emissions scenario, climate change is expected to exacerbate diarrhea deaths, causing around 9% of such deaths for children under 15 by 2030, and 13% of such deaths by 2050. Malnutrition may rise by up to 20% by 2050. In 2009, it was recorded in Kenya that the prevalence of stunting in children, underweight children and wasting in children under age 5 was 35.2%, 16.4% and 7.0%, respectively.[28]^:4

The National Environmental Management Authority in the Ministry of Environment and Mineral Resources (MEMR), the National Climate Change Activities Coordinating Committee, and the Kenya Meteorological Department in the Ministry of Transport are the major components of the government's institutional framework tasked with the day to day building of climate resilience.[29]

In 2010 the Kenyan government published the National Climate Change Response Strategy.[30] The Climate Change Act 2016 establishes a National Climate Change Council, which is chaired by Kenya's President,[5]^:4 with the authority to oversee "the development, management, implementation and regulation of mechanisms to enhance climate change resilience and low carbon development for the sustainable development of Kenya", by the National and County Governments, the private sector, civil society, and others.[31]

The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) was implemented in 2015 to improve climate resilience.[32][33] The NAP contains the Adaptation Technical Analysis Report (ATAR), which examines sectoral economic vulnerabilities, identifies adaptation needs, and suggests potential adaptation actions in different counties.[32] The NAP supports the development of local County Integrated Development Plans (CIPDs), which includes the establishment of County Climate Change Funds (CCCFs).[33]

The current National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP 2018–2022) follows the National Climate Change Action Plan 2013–2017. The plan focuses on adaptation and mitigation measures the country can take, with the aim of "low carbon climate resilient development".[34] The National Environment Management Authority serves as the country's accredited body to international climate financing organisations such as The Adaptation Fund and the Green Climate Fund.[5]