Climate change in South Africa

There has been different confirmations over climate change effects in South Africa with a rapid decrease in rain fall and noticed high temperature levels along side with flooding disaster in the northern Algeria. This caused around 800 deaths and economic loss of about $400 million, a massive drought in East Africa region which was known to be the worst for ages.[8] Climate change has direct effects on the overall wellbeing and health. These start with the capacity to gain nutrition from land and oceans, to the growth and irritation on the level of infections and various viruses[6] According to the Second Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change, climate change is the top concern for health organizations on the global level in the 21st century.[9] The Climate and Health Alliance 2012 Climate Vulnerability Monitor predicts that the price that we are going to pay once we fail in taking considerable actions in Climate Change issues will exceed 400,000 related mortalities each year, increasing to 700,000 by 2030, and will cost US$1.2 trillion.[10]

Coming to South Africa status with respect to Climate Change it is extremely critical on the level governmental ability to reduce the increasing levels of illnesses.[11] Climate change is expected to raise temperatures in South Africa by 2-3C by mid-century, and 3-4C by the end of the century in an intermediate scenario.[4] Impacts will also include changing rain patterns and increased evaporation, increasing the likelihood of extreme droughts.[4] Popular awareness of these potential impacts increased with the 2018–20 Southern Africa drought and subsequent Cape Town water crisis.[12]

In South Africa, an unfair spreading of healthcare luxuries is clear to notice. Mainly the underprivileged groups have only to only 12% of the nation’s medical professionals.[6]

Agriculture

Main article: Agriculture in South Africa

The main challenge that faces any nation because of climate change is its direct effect on food security. In this sense, Africa is listed as the most vulnerable continent to climate changes.[13] In Ethiopia for example, food production faces a lot of challenges because of climate change. It is noted that there is an increase in the annual production losses to climate changes from year to year.[12]

Working, singing and eating, happy farm workers

Trellised vines in Stellenbosch

Agriculture is expected to be negatively impacted by droughts, reduced rainfall, pests, and other changes in the environment due to climate change.[4] Higher temperatures in South Africa[14] and less rainfall will result in limited water resources and changing soil moisture, leading to decreased cropland productivity.[15]

Some predictions show surface water supply could decrease by 60% by the year 2070 in parts of the Western Cape.[16] To reverse the damage caused by land mismanagement, the government has supported a scheme which promotes sustainable development and the use of natural resources.[17]

Maize production, which contributes to a 36% majority of the gross value of South Africa's field crops, has also experienced negative effects due to climate change. The estimated value of the loss, which takes into consideration scenarios with and without the carbon dioxide fertilization effect,[18] ranges between tens and hundreds of millions of lands.[19]

Like all countries which are party to the Paris Agreement South Africa will report its greenhouse gas inventory to the UNFCCC at least biennially from 2024 at the latest.[24]

Energy sector

This section is an excerpt from Energy in South Africa[edit]

Total primary energy supply in South Africa, 2012

Total electricity production in South Africa, 2018

South Africa has a large energy sector, being the second-largest economy in Africa.

The country consumed 227 TWh of electricity in 2018.[25] The vast majority of South Africa's electricity was produced from coal, with the fuel responsible for 88% of production in 2017.[26] South Africa is the 7th largest coal producer in the world.[26] As of July 2018, South Africa had a coal power generation capacity of 39 gigawatts (GW).[26]

South Africa is planning to shift away from coal in the electricity sector. The country aims to decommission 34 GW of coal-fired power capacity by 2050.[26] It also aims to build at least 20 GW of renewable power generation capacity by 2030.[27]

South Africa is the world's 14th largest emitter of greenhouse gases.[26]

South Africa aims to generate 77,834 megawatts (MW) of electricity by 2030, with new capacity coming significantly from renewable sources to meet emission reduction targets.[28]

Renewable energy

This section is an excerpt from Renewable energy in South Africa[edit]

Primary sources of renewable energy in South Africa are solar, wind, hydroelectric, and biomass. Pictured here are wind turbines in Darling, Cape Province.

Renewable energy in South Africa is energy generated in South Africa from renewable resources, those that naturally replenish themselves—such as sunlight, wind, tides, waves, rain, biomass, and geothermal heat.[29] Renewable energy focuses on four core areas: electricity generation, air and water heating/cooling, transportation, and rural energy services.[30] The energy sector in South Africa is an important component of global energy regimes due to the country's innovation and advances in renewable energy.[31] South Africa's contribution to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is ranked as moderate and its per capita emission rate is higher than the global average. Energy demand within the country is expected to rise steadily and double by 2025.[31]

Of all South African renewable energy sources, solar holds the most potential.[31] Because of the country's geographic location, it receives large amounts of solar energy.[31] Wind energy is also a major potential source of renewable energy.[32] Due to the high wind velocity on the coast of the country, Cape Town has implemented multiple wind farms, which generate significant amounts of energy.[32] Renewable energy systems in the long-term are comparable or cost slightly less than non-renewable sources. Biomass is currently the largest renewable energy contributor in South Africa with 9-14% of the total energy mix.[33] Renewable energy systems are costly to implement in the beginning but provide high economic returns in the long-run.[34]

The two main barriers accompanying renewable energy in South Africa are: the energy innovation system, and the high cost of renewable energy technologies.[31] The Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers Procurement Programme (REI4P) suggests that the cost associated with renewable energy will equal the cost of non-renewable energy by 2030.[34] Renewable energy is becoming more efficient, inexpensive, and widely used.[29] South Africa has an abundance of renewable resources that can effectively supply the country's energy.[33]

Transportation

Main article: Transport in South Africa

Cape Town minibus taxi rank

Modern Toyota share taxi in Cape Town

The transport sector in South Africa contributes 10.8% of total Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions in the country. Apart from the direct emissions, indirect emissions through the production and transportation of fuels also provide substantial emissions.[35][4] Road transport, in particular, contributes approximately three quarters to total transport emissions.[36]

The South African government drafted its National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (NCCAS) in 2019. This strategy presents a vision for adapting to climate change and increasing resilience in the country. This strategy also and outlines priority areas for achieving this vision, which includes water resources, agriculture and commercial forestry, health, biodiversity and ecosystems, human settlements, and disaster risk reduction.[2] This strategy was also developed to act on the country's commitment to its obligations in the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The South African government has committed to a peak of CO2 emissions between 2020 and 2025. South Africa has agreed to working with other signatories of the Paris Agreement to keep temperature increases below 2 °C.[37] However, independent observers have called the current actions by the government insufficient.[4] In part, this failure to act is related to the government ownership of Eskom, which is responsible for much of the coal operation in the country.[4] Similarly, the economy is one of the most energy-intensive in the world although it has not been setting mitigation targets for industry.[4] Catalysing finance and investment to transition to a low carbon economy and society is a major challenge for South Africa.[37]

Although research is limited to climate change and health in South Africa, there is evidence that climate change will have negative impacts on public health, especially due to the high proportion of vulnerable people.[38] There is already a high burden of disease in South Africa linked to environmental stressors and climate change will exacerbate many of these social and environmental issues.[39] Climate change is projected to threaten public health through increased heat stress, rises in vector-borne diseases and infectious diseases, worsening extreme weather events, a decline in food security, and increased mental health stress.[40] A 2019 survey of literature on adaptation and public health, found that "the volume and quality of research is disappointing, and disproportionate to the threat posed by climate change in South Africa.".[41]

Taking into consideration, Malaria, it is vital to consider discussing it since it is an important concern of morbidity and mortality on sub-Saharan Africa.[42] Temperature has unstable effects on vector-borne disease transmission.[43] In a study conducted on Climate Change and its burdens over the health sector in South Africa in 2019 within 4 areas in Kenya, huge effects were noticed. It showed a unimodal relationship between blood smear positivity for malaria and environmental temperature that peaked at 25°C.This shows the severe effect of temperature rise with respect to health crisis resulting.[44]