Stirling (UK Parliament constituency)

Boundaries

1983–1997: The Stirling District electoral divisions of Airthrey, Bannockburn, Castle, Dounebraes, Menteith, Queensland, St Ninians, Strathendrick, Viewforth, and Wallace.

1997–2005: The Stirling District electoral divisions of Bannockburn, Castle, Dounebraes, Menteith, Queensland, St Ninians, Strathendrick, Viewforth, and Wallace.

2005–present: The Stirling council area.

The constituency covers the whole of the Stirling council area. Most of the area is rural, which has tended to vote Conservative, but there are some large towns in the East, most notably Stirling itself, which used to vote Labour, but has now moved towards SNP. A similar constituency, also called Stirling, is used by the Scottish Parliament.

History

The area covered by the modern constituency was first represented in the British House of Commons in consequence of the Act of Union 1707 in 1708. The county town of Stirling was represented as part of Stirling Burghs and the county was represented by Stirlingshire, each returning one member.

In 1918, Stirling Burghs was abolished and Stirling was then represented by the Stirling & Falkirk Burghs and from 1974 Stirling, Falkirk & Grangemouth constituencies. Along with Clackmannanshire the county was meanwhile represented by Clackmannan and Eastern Stirlingshire and Stirling and Clackmannan Western (later Stirlingshire West).

The modern constituency of Stirling was established in 1983. In 2005 the west portion of Ochil was moved into Stirling.

Constituency profile and voting patterns

Constituency profile

The seat is large, in Central Scotland and covers the Stirling council area.

Its population is concentrated around the historic City of Stirling and surrounding areas of Bannockburn, Bridge of Allan and Dunblane on its eastern fringes around the River Forth and its lower tributaries. This area consists of a mixture of Conservative-leaning suburbs to the north and west, such as Bridge of Allan and Dunblane and the Stirling suburbs of Cambusbarron, Kings Park and Torbrex, and somewhat more secessionist and poorer SNP or Labour-voting areas such as Raploch and south-east Stirling, in addition to Bannockburn, and the villages of Cowie, Fallin and Plean south-east of the city.

Boundaries stretch up to the west following the Valleys of the River Forth and Teith, running up into the wooded glens of the Trossachs on the eastern side of the Loch Lomond and The Trossachs National Park, such as the more sparsely populated eastern shore of Loch Lomond, and it takes in a variety of fresh water lochs, such as Loch Katrine and Loch Venachar.

A number of small villages dot the corridors of the A84, A85 and A811 roads, including Callander, widely recognised as the gateway to the Loch Lomond and The Trossachs National Park, and more widely as the gateway to the Scottish Highlands. The scenic areas mentioned have proven especially rich territory for successful Conservative candidates and campaigns, hosting many retirees and wealthy investors.

Voting patterns

When the Stirling constituency was first created for the 1983 general election combining northern elements of the West Stirlingshire constituency with the town of Stirling from the Stirling, Falkirk and Grangemouth constituency and southern elements of the old Kinross and West Perthshire constituency it was thought of as a fairly safe Conservative seat, with Michael Forsyth winning the seat with a 5,133 vote majority. It became a tight Labour-Conservative marginal in 1987, and again in 1992, being retained by Michael Forsyth with less than 1,000 votes at both elections.

Labour gained Stirling at their 1997 landslide election victory, then held the seat and it's coterminous constituency of Stirling in the Scottish Parliament, usually with a majority of over 10% of the vote, until the SNP's breakthrough ten years later in 2007. The Westminster constituency of Stirling remained under Labour's control in 2010; however, it subsequently fell to Steven Paterson of the Scottish National Party in their landslide victory across Scotland in 2015. More recently, the Conservatives have made gains in the area, coming second in the overlapping constituency of Stirling in the Scottish Parliament, and taking more votes than the SNP at the 2017 Stirling Council election. At the 2017 general election, Stephen Kerr unseated Paterson by a narrow majority of 148 votes, becoming the first elected Conservative MP for Stirling in 25 years.[2] Kerr was subsequently defeated by Alyn Smith in 2019.[3][4]

Stirling voted against Scottish independence in 2014 on an above-average margin of 59.8% "No" 40.2% "Yes". At the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum on 23 June 2016, an above-average margin of 67.7% of the electorate in Stirling voted for the United Kingdom to remain a member of the European Union with 32.3% voting for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union.

Members of Parliament
ElectionMember[5]Party
1983 Michael Forsyth Conservative
1997 Dame Anne McGuire Labour
2015 Steven Paterson SNP
2017 Stephen Kerr Conservative
2019 Alyn Smith SNP

Elections

Elections of the 2010s
General election 2019: Stirling[3][4]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Alyn Smith 26,895 51.1 14.4
Conservative Stephen Kerr 17,641 33.5 3.5
Labour Mary-Kate Ross 4,275 8.1 14.0
Liberal Democrats Fayzan Rehman 2,867 5.4 2.0
Scottish Green Bryan Quinn 942 1.8 New
Majority 9,254 17.6 N/A
Turnout 52,620 76.8 2.5
SNP gain from Conservative Swing 9.0

This was the largest increase in the SNP's vote share at the 2019 general election.[6]

General election 2017: Stirling
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Stephen Kerr[7] 18,291 37.1 14.0
SNP Steven Paterson[8] 18,143 36.8 8.8
Labour Chris Kane 10,902 22.1 3.4
Liberal Democrats Wendy Chamberlain 1,683 3.4 0.7
Women's Equality Kirstein Rummery[9] 337 0.7 New
Majority 148 0.3 N/A
Turnout 49,356 74.3 3.2
Conservative gain from SNP Swing 11.4
General election 2015: Stirling[10][11]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Steven Paterson 23,783 45.6 28.3
Labour Johanna Boyd 13,303 25.5 16.3
Conservative Stephen Kerr 12,051 23.1 0.8
Scottish Green Mark Ruskell 1,606 3.1 1.5
Liberal Democrats Elisabeth Wilson 1,392 2.7 11.8
Majority 10,480 20.1 N/A
Turnout 52,135 77.5 6.7
SNP gain from Labour Swing 22.3
General election 2010: Stirling[12]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Anne McGuire 19,558 41.8 5.8
Conservative Bob H. Dalrymple 11,204 23.9 1.2
SNP Alison J. Lindsay 8,091 17.3 4.7
Liberal Democrats Graham Reed 6,797 14.5 6.2
Scottish Green Mark Ruskell 746 1.6 1.4
UKIP Paul Henke 395 0.8 0.3
Majority 8,354 17.9 7.0
Turnout 46,791 70.8 3.1
Labour hold Swing 3.5

Elections of the 2000s
General election 2005: Stirling[13]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Anne McGuire 15,729 36.0 −7.0
Conservative Stephen Kerr 10,962 25.1 +1.4
Liberal Democrats Kelvin Holdsworth 9,052 20.7 +9.2
SNP Frances McGlinchey 5,503 12.6 −4.5
Scottish Green Richard Illingworth 1,302 3.0 +0.9
Scottish Socialist Rowland Sheret 458 1.0 −1.7
Independent James McDonald 261 0.6 New
Christian Vote Michael Willis 215 0.5 New
UKIP Matthew Desmond 209 0.5 New
Majority 4,767 10.9 -6.5
Turnout 43,691 67.7 +2.8
Labour hold Swing −4.2
General election 2001: Stirling[14]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Anne McGuire 15,175 42.2 −5.2
Conservative Geoff Mawdsley 8,901 24.8 −7.7
SNP Fiona Macaulay 5,877 16.4 +3.0
Liberal Democrats Clive Freeman 4,208 11.7 +5.5
Scottish Socialist Charles Mullen 1,012 2.8 New
Scottish Green Mark Ruskell 757 2.1 New
Majority 6,274 17.4 +2.5
Turnout 35,930 67.7 −14.1
Labour hold Swing +1.2

Elections of the 1990s
General election 1997: Stirling[15]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Anne McGuire 20,382 47.4 +8.8
Conservative Michael Forsyth 13,971 32.5 −6.7
SNP Ewan Dow 5,752 13.4 −1.1
Liberal Democrats Alistair Tough 2,675 6.2 +0.5
UKIP William McMurdo 154 0.4 New
Majority 6,411 14.9 N/A
Turnout 42,958 81.8 −0.5
Labour gain from Conservative Swing +7.8
General election 1992: Stirling[16]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Michael Forsyth 19,174 40.0 +1.7
Labour Catherine Phillips 18,471 38.5 +2.3
SNP Gerald Fisher 6,558 13.7 +3.0
Liberal Democrats William Robertson 3,337 7.0 −7.8
Scottish Green William Thompson 342 0.7 New
Monster Raving Loony Ross Sharp 68 0.1 New
Majority 703 1.5 -0.6
Turnout 47,950 82.3 +2.9
Conservative hold Swing

Elections of the 1980s
General election 1987: Stirling[17]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Michael Forsyth 17,591 38.3 −1.7
Labour Michael Connarty 16,643 36.2 +8.3
Liberal Ian McFarlane 6,804 14.8 −9.1
SNP Iain Lawson 4,897 10.7 +2.5
Majority 948 2.1 -10.0
Turnout 45,935 79.4 +3.7
Conservative hold Swing
General election 1983: Stirling[18]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Michael Forsyth 17,039 40.0 +2.8
Labour Michael Connarty 11,906 27.9 -7.7
Liberal Ross Finnie 10,174 23.9 +12.6
SNP William Houston 3,488 8.2 -7.7
Majority 5,133 12.1 N/A
Turnout 42,607 75.7 N/A
Conservative win (new seat)

References
  1. "'Stirling', June 1983 up to May 1997". ElectionWeb Project. Cognitive Computing Limited. Retrieved 14 March 2016.
  2. Smith, Iain (2 March 2019). "Stirling election decided by 148 votes". Stirling News.
  3. "UK Parliamentary Election". Stirling Council. Retrieved 16 November 2019.
  4. "Stirling parliamentary constituency". Election 2019. BBC News. 13 December 2019. Retrieved 15 December 2019.
  5. Leigh Rayment's Historical List of MPs – Constituencies beginning with "S" (part 5)
  6. Elise Uberoi; Carl Baker; Richard Cracknell (19 December 2019). "General Election 2019: results and analysis" (PDF). House of Commons Library. UK Parliament.
  7. Wallace, Mark (24 April 2017). "Lee Scott back for Ilford North; Vicky Ford in final Chelmsford three". Conservative Home.
  8. Bews, Lynsey (22 April 2017). "General Election: SNP reselects 54 MPs". The Scotsman. JPI Media.
  9. Paterson, Kirsteen (4 May 2017). "Women's Equality Party to take on 'two Steves and a Chris' in Stirling". The National.
  10. "Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  11. "Results Election 2015 for the Stirling Constituency". Stirling Council. Archived from the original on 23 April 2016. Retrieved 26 August 2015.
  12. "Election Data 2010". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 26 July 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  13. "Election Data 2005". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  14. "Election Data 2001". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  15. "Election Data 1997". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  16. "Election Data 1992". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  17. "Election Data 1987". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  18. "Election Data 1983". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
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