2008 United States Senate election in Kentucky

The 2008 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 4, 2008. Minority Leader and incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell won re-election to a fifth term. Although Barack Obama lost Kentucky by a 16.22% margin to John McCain in the presidential election which occurred simultaneously, McConnell more narrowly kept his seat with a 5.94% margin against businessman Bruce Lunsford. This was a greatly reduced margin from when he won re-election in 2002 with a 29.4% margin.

2008 United States Senate election in Kentucky

November 4, 2008
 
Nominee Mitch McConnell Bruce Lunsford
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 953,816 847,005
Percentage 52.97% 47.03%

County Results

McConnell:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Lunsford:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Mitch McConnell
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mitch McConnell
Republican

Background

In 2007 Kentucky's unpopular Republican Governor, Ernie Fletcher, lost his re-election bid. The Democrats took control of both Houses of Congress in the 2006 mid-term elections and in October Chuck Schumer acknowledged they were aiming for McConnell's seat.[1]

State auditor Crit Luallen was considered a top contender for the Democratic nomination, but she decided to remain as auditor.[2] Lunsford was asked to run by Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear.[3] Seven candidates competed for the Democratic Primary nomination. The primaries for both parties took place on May 20, 2008 in which Lunsford took more than 50%.

Republican primary

Candidates

Results

Republican primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) 168,127 86.09%
Republican Daniel Essek 27,170 13.91%
Total votes 195,297 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

Democratic primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Bruce Lunsford 316,992 51.15%
Democratic Greg Fischer 209,827 33.85%
Democratic David L. Williams 34,363 5.54%
Democratic Michael Cassaro 17,340 2.80%
Democratic Kenneth Stepp 13,451 2.17%
Democratic David Wylie 7,528 1.21%
Democratic James E. Rice 2,365 3.28%
Total votes 619,904 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

In October Lunsford and McConnell were statistically tied in the polls. Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said "If Lunsford is actually doing this well, its got to be because the public is so upset by the economic meltdown and may be blaming the legislative leaders."[6]

A debate scheduled for October 7 hosted by the League of Women Voters was canceled when incumbent McConnell decided not to participate even though Lunsford announced he wanted to debate.[7]

On November 2, 2008, media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal noted that the website of The New Republic had reported that anti-McConnell flyers questioning the senator's sexuality as well as the reasons for his 1967 military discharge were being distributed in Kentucky.[8][9]

Predictions

CQ Politics rated this race as 'Republican Favored',[10] but later rated it 'Leans Republican'.[10] The Cook Political Report considered it 'Lean Republican'.[11] The Rothenberg Political Report once considered it a 'Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party'[12] but later called the race 'Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party'.[13]

Polling

Poll Source Dates administered Lunsford McConnell
Voter/Consumer Research January 6–8, 2008 37% 52%
Research 2000/
Lexington Herald-Leader/
WKYT-TV
May 7–9, 2008 36% 48%
Voter/Consumer Research May 21–22, 2008 39% 50%
Rasmussen Reports May 22, 2008 49% 44%
Survey USA June 13–16, 2008 46% 50%
Voter/Consumer Research June 15–17, 2008 39% 50%
Rasmussen Reports June 25, 2008 41% 48%
Rasmussen Reports July 29, 2008 42% 52%
Survey USA August 11, 2008 40% 52%
Voter/Consumer Research September 7–9, 2008 35% 52%
Research 2000 for Daily Kos September 15–17, 2008 37% 50%
SurveyUSA September 21–22, 2008 46% 49%
Rasmussen Reports September 30, 2008 42% 51%
SurveyUSA October 20, 2008 48% 48%
Rasmussen Reports October 21, 2008 43% 50%
Research 2000/
Lexington Herald-Leader/
WKYT-TV
October 22, 2008 43% 47%
Rasmussen Reports October 29, 2008 44% 51%
Survey USA November 1, 2008 45% 53%

Results

General election results[14]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) 953,816 52.97% -11.7%
Democratic Bruce Lunsford 847,005 47.03% +11.7%
Total votes '1,800,821' '100.0%'
Republican hold

Results breakdown

Election results by county. Red indicates McConnell led in a county, while blue indicates that Lunsford received more votes. Counties are shaded to indicate the margin of victory.
County[15]PrecinctsReportingLunsford% LunsfordMcConnell% McConnellTotal
Adair16162,19830.88%4,92069.12%7,118 (R)
Allen13132,33131.85%4,98768.15%7,318 (R)
Anderson14144,78746.27%5,55853.73%10,345 (R)
Ballard13131,89346.68%2,16253.32%4,055 (R)
Barren24246,73541.15%9,63058.85%16,365 (R)
Bath12122,74761.36%1,73038.64%4,477 (D)
Bell33333,49438.83%5,50561.17%8,999 (R)
Boone606015,22430.75%34,28569.25%49,509 (R)
Bourbon18184,32552.26%3,95147.74%8,276 (D)
Boyd474711,17454.23%9,43045.77%20,604 (D)
Boyle25255,85446.90%6,62753.10%12,481 (R)
Bracken881,38241.17%1,97558.83%3,357 (R)
Breathitt21213,11161.41%1,95538.59%5,066 (D)
Breckinridge15153,73644.02%4,75255.98%8,488 (R)
Bullitt444412,50141.85%17,36858.15%29,869 (R)
Butler12121,77133.59%3,50166.41%5,272 (R)
Caldwell13132,82146.30%3,27253.70%6,093 (R)
Calloway30306,87045.39%8,26654.61%15,136 (R)
Campbell666614,78937.55%24,59162.45%39,380 (R)
Carlisle661,22046.51%1,40353.49%2,623 (R)
Carroll11112,15757.23%1,61242.77%3,769 (D)
Carter23235,22053.74%4,49446.26%9,714 (D)
Casey15151,78330.55%4,05369.45%5,836 (R)
Christian44449,03040.79%13,10959.21%22,139 (R)
Clark26267,43648.49%7,89851.51%15,334 (R)
Clay20202,45833.85%4,80466.15%7,262 (R)
Clinton13131,02925.42%3,01974.58%4,048 (R)
Crittenden12121,61541.59%2,26858.41%3,883 (R)
Cumberland9976328.62%1,90371.38%2,666 (R)
Daviess848420,77947.94%22,56352.06%43,342 (R)
Edmonson10101,99638.06%3,24961.94%5,245 (R)
Elliott771,83071.99%71228.01%2,542 (R)
Estill15152,16241.36%3,06558.64%5,227 (R)
Fayette27427468,02954.15%57,60545.85%125,634 (R)
Fleming18182,84550.04%2,84149.96%5,686 (D)
Floyd424210,10564.35%5,59835.65%15,703 (D)
Franklin444413,88859.00%9,65141.00%23,539 (R)
Fulton13131,45653.49%1,26646.51%2,722 (D)
Gallatin881,43545.66%1,70854.34%3,143 (R)
Garrard13132,85840.11%4,26859.89%7,126 (R)
Grant23233,40839.33%5,25760.67%8,665 (R)
Graves30307,83948.76%8,23951.24%16,078 (R)
Grayson23233,86339.23%5,98360.77%9,846 (R)
Green10101,77735.73%3,19764.27%4,974 (R)
Greenup32328,25852.83%7,37447.17%15,632 (D)
Hancock10102,29856.09%1,79943.91%4,097 (D)
Hardin555517,31843.68%22,32656.32%39,644 (R)
Harlan35354,44045.92%5,22954.08%9,669 (R)
Harrison17173,81450.47%3,74349.53%7,557 (D)
Hart19192,96244.60%3,68055.40%6,642 (R)
Henderson424211,04856.06%8,65943.94%19,707 (D)
Henry20203,19446.52%3,67253.48%6,866 (R)
Hickman661,04947.49%1,16052.51%2,209 (R)
Hopkins40408,48144.87%10,41955.13%18,900 (R)
Jackson14141,24524.71%3,79475.29%5,039 (R)
Jefferson515515195,40155.73%155,24144.27%350,642 (D)
Jessamine37377,84739.60%11,96960.40%19,816 (R)
Johnson31313,25238.81%5,12861.19%8,380 (R)
Kenton10810819,21736.26%33,78763.74%53,004 (R)
Knott30303,47762.14%2,11837.86%5,595 (D)
Knox30304,32939.01%6,76760.99%11,096 (R)
LaRue12122,52341.97%3,48958.03%6,012 (R)
Laurel45456,85031.15%15,13868.85%21,988 (R)
Lawrence18182,64147.47%2,92352.53%5,564 (R)
Lee10101,07339.77%1,62560.23%2,698 (R)
Leslie17171,08325.15%3,22474.85%4,307 (R)
Letcher32324,19851.82%3,90348.18%8,101 (D)
Lewis14141,78738.26%2,88461.74%4,671 (R)
Lincoln17174,11945.47%4,93954.53%9,058 (R)
Livingston10102,14247.35%2,38252.65%4,524 (R)
Logan20204,37940.70%6,37959.30%10,758 (R)
Lyon661,82147.80%1,98952.20%3,810 (R)
McCracken545413,00642.91%17,30357.09%30,309 (D)
McCreary18181,57630.41%3,60669.59%5,182 (R)
McLean882,22550.55%2,17749.45%4,402 (D)
Madison565614,65745.96%17,23754.04%31,894 (R)
Magoffin14142,71958.81%1,90441.19%4,623 (D)
Marion17174,30457.68%3,15842.32%7,462 (D)
Marshall25257,46348.94%7,78551.06%15,248 (R)
Martin14141,20333.19%2,42266.81%3,625 (R)
Mason20203,09544.58%3,84755.42%6,942 (R)
Meade18185,14946.58%5,90553.42%11,054 (R)
Menifee661,52061.51%95138.49%2,471 (D)
Mercer17174,33844.17%5,48455.83%9,822 (R)
Metcalfe12121,76644.03%2,24555.97%4,011 (R)
Monroe12121,23727.16%3,31872.84%4,555 (R)
Montgomery18185,52654.25%4,66045.75%10,186 (D)
Morgan12122,47557.03%1,86542.97%4,340 (D)
Muhlenberg26267,43657.90%5,40642.10%12,842 (R)
Nelson26268,82349.60%8,96550.40%17,788 (R)
Nicholas551,73759.47%1,18440.53%2,921 (D)
Ohio25254,66447.08%5,24252.92%9,906 (R)
Oldham343410,20435.25%18,74464.75%28,948 (R)
Owen13132,01942.93%2,68457.07%4,703 (R)
Owsley8855934.46%1,06365.54%1,622 (R)
Pendleton12122,15537.97%3,52062.03%5,675 (R)
Perry37375,02649.10%5,21150.90%10,237 (R)
Pike575712,91257.16%9,67942.84%22,591 (D)
Powell11112,86357.91%2,08142.09%4,944 (D)
Pulaski57578,10832.20%17,07267.80%25,180 (R)
Robertson5549849.21%51450.79%1,012 (R)
Rockcastle14141,83730.55%4,17769.45%6,014 (R)
Rowan18184,71058.71%3,31241.29%8,022 (D)
Russell16162,45033.67%4,82766.33%7,277 (R)
Scott35359,23847.36%10,26752.64%19,505 (R)
Shelby33337,54641.15%10,79058.85%18,336 (R)
Simpson13133,11844.29%3,92255.71%7,040 (R)
Spencer11113,15939.64%4,81160.36%7,970 (R)
Taylor20204,16338.52%6,64461.48%10,807 (R)
Todd13131,77236.89%3,03263.11%4,804 (R)
Trigg14142,63740.76%3,83359.24%6,470 (R)
Trimble12121,92750.87%1,86149.13%3,788 (D)
Union16163,33555.46%2,67844.54%6,013 (D)
Warren636319,16243.84%24,54756.16%43,709 (R)
Washington14142,31645.04%2,82654.96%5,142 (R)
Wayne19193,04543.30%3,98756.70%7,032 (R)
Webster14143,00054.39%2,51645.61%5,516 (D)
Whitley36364,84936.37%8,48463.63%13,333 (R)
Wolfe881,88662.74%1,12037.26%3,006 (D)
Woodford16165,90348.65%6,23151.35%12,134 (R)

See also

References

  1. Stein, Sam (October 31, 2007). "Schumer Takes Aim At Senate's Top Republican". Huffington Post. Retrieved October 31, 2007.
  2. Daily Kos: KY-Sen: Schumer says Crit is in
  3. Gerth, Joseph (January 30, 2008). "Lunsford to challenge McConnell; Lewis is out". Courier-Journal.
  4. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on July 21, 2011. Retrieved August 1, 2017.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  5. "2008 Kentucky Statewide Election Results by Office". Kentucky State Board of Elections. June 11, 2008. Retrieved February 16, 2018.
  6. "McConnell, Lunsford race a dead heat". The Courier-Journal. September 27, 2008. Retrieved September 27, 2008.
  7. "Lunsford-McConnell Debate Now Off". Kentucky Post. September 30, 2008. Archived from the original on October 11, 2008. Retrieved October 17, 2008.
  8. "McConnell Outing Controversy Breaks Into National Mainstream Media". Proud of Who We Are (Press release). Proud of Who We Are. November 3, 2008.
  9. Michelle, Cottle; Orr, Christopher; Zengerle, Jason (November 2, 2008). "Democratic Gay-Baiting? You Don't Say..." The New Republic. Archived from the original on November 6, 2008.
  10. Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
  11. 2008 Senate Race Ratings Archived November 20, 2008, at the Wayback Machine The Cook Political Report, October 9, 2008
  12. 2008 Senate Ratings The Rothenberg Political Report, July 19, 2008
  13. 2008 Senate Ratings The Rothenberg Political Report, September 29, 2008
  14. http://elect.ky.gov/SiteCollectionDocuments/Election%20Results/2000-2009/2008/General%20Election/STATEwide%20by%20office%20gen%2008.txt
  15. http://elect.ky.gov/SiteCollectionDocuments/Election%20Results/2000-2009/2008/General%20Election/STATEwide%20by%20candidate%20by%20county%20gen%2008.txt
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