2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election
The 2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election took place on November 3, 2015.[1] Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Beshear was ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits.[2] Primary elections were held on May 19, 2015.[1] Despite trailing in most pre-election polls, Republican nominee Matt Bevin defeated Democratic nominee Jack Conway by a margin of 52.5% to 43.8% in the general election. Statewide turnout in this election was 30%.
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| Turnout | 30%  | |||||||||||||||||||
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 County results Bevin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Conway: 40–50% 50–60% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Kentucky |
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 |
 Government |
Democratic primary
Declared
- Jack Conway, Attorney General of Kentucky (2008–2016) and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010[3]
- Running mate: Sannie Overly, state representative[3]
- Geoff Young, retired engineer and candidate for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2014[4]
Declined
- Jerry Abramson, White House Director of Intergovernmental Affairs, former lieutenant governor of Kentucky and former mayor of Louisville[6]
- Rocky Adkins, Majority Leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives[7][8]
- Ben Chandler, former U.S. Representative, former attorney general of Kentucky and nominee for governor in 2003[9][10][11][12]
- Luther Deaton, banker[13][14]
- Adam Edelen, State Auditor of Kentucky (ran for re-election)[15][16][17]
- Greg Fischer, Mayor of Louisville[18]
- Alison Lundergan Grimes, Secretary of State of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (ran for re-election)[19]
- Crit Luallen, Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky and former state auditor of Kentucky[20][21]
- Daniel Mongiardo, former Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004[15]
- Greg Stumbo, Speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives, former attorney general of Kentucky and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2007[8][22][23][24][25]
- John Yarmuth, U.S. Representative[26]
Endorsements
Jack Conway/Sannie Overly
- Statewide elected officials
- Wendell H. Ford, former U.S. Senator and former Governor[27]
- Crit Luallen, Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky and former State Auditor of Kentucky[27]
- Alison Lundergan Grimes, Kentucky Secretary of State[27]
- John Yarmuth, U.S. Representative[27]
- Individuals
- Jim King, Louisville Metro Council President[28]
- David Yates, Louisville Metro Councilman[29]
- Shane Young, Hardin County Commonwealth's Attorney[30]
- Dan Boaz, McCracken County Commonwealth's Attorney[31]
- Les Burgett, Perry County Sheriff[32]
- Bobby Carpenter, Greenup County Judge/Executive[33]
- John Estill, Mason County Attorney[34]
- John Gardner, Barren and Metcalfe Counties Commonwealth's Attorney[35]
- Steve Gold, Henderson County Attorney[36]
- David O'Neill, Fayette County Property Valuation Administrator[37]
- G.L. Ovey, Lyon County Commonwealth's Attorney[38]
- Mike Pryor, Nicholas County Judge/Executive[39]
- Tommy Turner, LaRue County Judge/Executive[40]
- Jim Ward, Letcher County Judge/Executive[41]
- G. Davis Wilson, Bourbon County Attorney[42]
- Elisabeth Jensen, education advocate and nominee for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2014[43]
- Members of the Kentucky legislature
- Morgan McGarvey, state senator[44]
- Gerald Neal, state senator[45]
- Ray Jones, state senator[46]
- Dorsey Ridley, state senator[47]
- Rita Smart, state representative[48]
- Larry Clark, State Representative and former Speaker Pro Tem of the Kentucky House of Representatives[49]
- Leslie Combs, state representative[50]
- Mike Denham, state representative[51]
- Jeff Donohue, state representative[52]
- Kelly Flood, state representative[53]
- Doc Watkins, state representative[54]
- Ed Worley, former Minority Leader of the Kentucky Senate and former state senator[55]
- Jerry Rhoads, former state senator[56]
- Denver Butler, former state representative[57]
- Organizations
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 369[58]
- Jefferson County Teachers Association[59]
- Teamsters Joint Council 94[60]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jack Conway |
Geoff Young |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA | May 5–10, 2015 | 707 | ± 3.5% | 68% | 13% | 19% |
| Survey USA | March 3–8, 2015 | 640 | ± 3.9% | 61% | 12% | 27% |
| Harper Polling | January 28–31, 2015 | 255 | ± 6.14% | 59% | 13% | 28% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jack Conway | 140,627 | 78.8% | |
| Democratic | Geoff Young | 37,887 | 21.2% | |
| Total votes | 178,514 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Declared
- Matt Bevin, businessman and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014[62][63]
- Running mate: Jenean Hampton, former Chairwoman of the Bowling Green/Southern Kentucky Tea Party and nominee for the 20th Kentucky House district in 2014[64][65]
- James Comer, Agriculture Commissioner of Kentucky, 2012–2016; and former state representative, 2001-2012[66]
- Running mate: Christian McDaniel, state senator, 2013–present[67]
- Hal Heiner, former member of the Louisville Metro Council, 2003–2010; and nominee for Mayor of Louisville in 2010[68]
- Running mate: K.C. Crosbie, former Lexington-Fayette Urban County Councilwoman, 2006–2014; former finance chairwoman and national chairwoman for the Republican Party of Kentucky, and nominee for Kentucky State Treasurer in 2011[69]
- Will T. Scott, former associate justice of the Kentucky Supreme Court, 2005–2015; nominee for Attorney General of Kentucky in 1995 and for KY-07 in 1988 and 1990[70][71]
- Running mate: Rodney Coffey, former Menifee County Sheriff, 1999–2014; Kentucky Sheriffs Association President, 20142015 [72]
Withdrew
- Robert Lee Rosier, U.S. Army veteran[73]
- Running mate: John Yuen, candidate for the State Senate in 2012[73]
Declined
- Cathy Bailey, businesswoman and former United States Ambassador to Latvia[74]
- Andy Barr, U.S. Representative[75][76]
- Jess Correll, banker[77]
- Richie Farmer, former Agriculture Commissioner of Kentucky[78][79][80]
- Ernie Fletcher, former governor and former U.S. Representative[81]
- Trey Grayson, former Secretary of State of Kentucky and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[82]
- Brett Guthrie, U.S. Representative[77][83][84]
- Thomas Massie, U.S. Representative[85]
- Mitch McConnell, U.S. Senator and Senate Majority Leader[86]
- Phil Moffett, businessman, Tea Party activist and candidate for governor in 2011[87][88]
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator and 2016 presidential candidate[89]
- David L. Williams, judge on the Kentucky Circuit Courts, former president of the Kentucky Senate and nominee for governor in 2011[90]
Endorsements
James Comer/Chris McDaniel
- Individuals
- Jim Bunning, former U.S. Senator[91]
- Julie Denton, state senator[92]
- Anne Northup, former U.S. Representative and candidate for Governor in 2007[92]
- Ron Lewis, former U.S. Representative[93]
- Thomas Massie, U.S. Representative for Kentucky's 4th congressional district[94]
- Ed Whitfield, U.S. Representative[95]
- Organizations
- Associated General Contractors[96]
Hal Heiner/K.C. Crosbie
- Individuals
- Rebecca Jackson, former Jefferson County Judge/Executive and candidate for Governor in 2003[92]
- Organizations
- Kentucky Pastors Action Coalition [97]
Matt Bevin/Jenean Hampton
- Individuals
- Hugh Hewitt, author and talk radio personality [98]
- Sally Oh, co-founder of the Lexington Tea Party [99]
- Organizations
- Cincinnati Enquirer [100]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Cathy Bailey |
Matt Bevin |
James Comer |
Hal Heiner |
Will T. Scott |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA | May 5–10, 2015 | 517 | ± 4.4% | — | 27% | 26% | 25% | 8% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 6–7, 2015 | 501 | ± 4.4% | — | 25% | 28% | 27% | — | 20% |
| Triumph Campaigns | March 26, 2015 | 601 | ± 4% | — | 12% | 19% | 33% | 3% | 29% |
| Survey USA | March 3–8, 2015 | 520 | ± 4.4% | — | 20% | 20% | 28% | 8% | 25% |
| Harper Polling | January 28–31, 2015 | 261 | ± 6.07% | — | 18% | 25% | 19% | 9% | 30% |
| Remington Research | January 27–28, 2015 | 1,000 | ± ? | — | 19% | 22% | 18% | 5% | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 7–10, 2014 | 383 | ± ? | 11% | 25% | 20% | 18% | — | 26% |
| — | — | 22% | 28% | — | 50% | ||||
| Public Opinion Strategies | February 26–27, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | — | — | 42% | 14% | — | 13% |
Results
Primary results by county:
Bevin
- Bevin—51-60%
- Bevin—41-50%
- Bevin—31-40%
Comer
- Comer—91-100%
- Comer—81-90%
- Comer—71-80%
- Comer—61-70%
- Comer—51-60%
- Comer—41-50%
- Comer—31-40%
- Comer—21-30%
Heiner
- Heiner—51-60%
- Heiner—41-50%
- Heiner—31-40%
- Heiner—21-30%
Scott
- Scott—61-70%
- Scott—31-40%
Tie between Bevin and Comer—29%
On May 19, 2015, Matt Bevin won the Republican primary, defeating second-place finisher James Comer by 83 votes.[61]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Matt Bevin | 70,480 | 32.91% | |
| Republican | James Comer | 70,397 | 32.89% | |
| Republican | Hal Heiner | 57,951 | 27.10% | |
| Republican | Will T. Scott | 15,365 | 7.20% | |
| Total votes | 214,187 | 100.00% | ||
Independents
Declared
- Drew Curtis, entrepreneur and founder and CEO of Fark.com[101]
- Running mate: Heather Curtis, COO of Fark.com and wife of Drew Curtis[101]
- Gatewood Galbraith (formerly Terrill Wayne Newman), social worker (distinguish from politician Gatewood Galbraith)[102][103]
- Running mate: Elisabeth Anderson, retired legal secretary
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[104] | Tossup | October 26, 2015 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[105] | Tilt D | October 27, 2015 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[106] | Lean D | October 29, 2015 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jack Conway (D) |
Matt Bevin (R) |
Drew Curtis (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vox Populi | October 26–27, 2015 | 618 | ± 3.9% | 44% | 44% | 6% | 6% |
| 43% | 46% | 6% | 7% | ||||
| Survey USA | October 23–26, 2015 | 798 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 40% | 6% | 10% |
| WKU Social Science Research Center | October 19–25, 2015 | 770 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 40% | 7% | 8% |
| Mason-Dixon | October 6–8, 2015 | 625 | ± 4% | 43% | 41% | 6% | 10% |
| Survey USA | September 22–27, 2015 | 701 | ± 3.8% | 42% | 37% | 7% | 15% |
| Survey USA | July 22–28, 2015 | 685 | ± 3.8% | 43% | 38% | 8% | 11% |
| 45% | 42% | — | 13% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling | June 18–21, 2015 | 1,108 | ± 2.9% | 35% | 38% | 6% | 21% |
| 38% | 40% | — | 22% | ||||
| Survey USA | May 5–10, 2015 | 1,677 | ± 2.4% | 48% | 37% | — | 16% |
| Survey USA | March 3–8, 2015 | 1,917 | ± 2.3% | 42% | 36% | — | 22% |
| Harper Polling | January 28–29, 2015 | 640 | ± 3.87% | 45% | 41% | — | 14% |
| Gravis Marketing | January 5–6, 2015 | 608 | ± 4% | 44% | 36% | — | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 7–10, 2014 | 991 | ± 3.1% | 39% | 36% | — | 25% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Matt Bevin | 511,374 | 52.52% | +17.23% | |
| Democratic | Jack Conway | 426,620 | 43.82% | -11.90% | |
| Independent | Drew Curtis | 35,597 | 3.66% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 973,692 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
References
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