2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky
The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the six U.S. Representatives from the state of Kentucky, one from each of the state's six congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.
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All 6 Kentucky seats to the United States House of Representatives | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Results: Democratic hold Republican hold | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Elections in Kentucky |
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 Government |
Overview
| District | Republican | Democratic | Others | Total | Result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| District 1 | 246,329 | 75.0% | 82,141 | 25.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 328,470 | 100.0% | Republican Hold |
| District 2 | 255,735 | 70.9% | 94,643 | 26.3% | 10,021 | 2.8% | 360,399 | 100.0% | Republican Hold |
| District 3 | 136,425 | 37.3% | 230,672 | 62.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 368,097 | 100.0% | Democratic Hold |
| District 4 | 256,613 | 67.1% | 125,896 | 32.9% | 0 | 0.0% | 382,509 | 100.0% | Republican Hold |
| District 5 | 250,914 | 84.2% | 47,056 | 15.8% | 0 | 0.0% | 297,970 | 100.0% | Republican Hold |
| District 6 | 216,948 | 57.3% | 155,011 | 41.0% | 6,491 | 1.7% | 378,450 | 100.0% | Republican Hold |
| Total | 1,363,964 | 64.46% | 735,419 | 34.76% | 16,512 | 0.78% | 2,115,895 | 100.0% | |
District 1
The 1st district takes in Western Kentucky, including Paducah, Hopkinsville, Murray, and Henderson. The incumbent is Republican James Comer, who was re-elected with 68.6% of the vote.[1]
Declared
- James Comer, incumbent U.S. Representative[2]
Declared
- James Rhodes[2]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[3] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[4] | Safe R | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[6] | Safe R | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[7] | Safe R | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[8] | Safe R | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[9] | Safe R | June 7, 2020 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | James Comer (incumbent) | 246,329 | 75.0 | |
| Democratic | James Rhodes | 82,141 | 25.0 | |
| Total votes | 328,470 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
District 2
The 2nd district encompasses west-central Kentucky, taking in Bowling Green, Owensboro, and Elizabethtown. The incumbent is Republican Brett Guthrie, who was re-elected with 66.7% of the vote in 2018.[1]
Declared
- Kathleen Free[11]
- Brett Guthrie, incumbent U.S. Representative[11]
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Brett Guthrie (incumbent) | 65,313 | 88.6 | |
| Republican | Kathleen Free | 8,380 | 11.4 | |
| Total votes | 73,693 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian Party
- Robert Lee Perry
Populist Party
- Lewis Carter
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[3] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[4] | Safe R | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[6] | Safe R | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[7] | Safe R | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[8] | Safe R | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[9] | Safe R | June 7, 2020 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Brett Guthrie (incumbent) | 255,735 | 70.9 | |
| Democratic | Hank Linderman | 94,643 | 26.3 | |
| Libertarian | Robert Lee Perry | 7,588 | 2.1 | |
| Populist | Lewis Carter | 2,431 | 0.7 | |
| Write-in | 2 | 0.0 | ||
| Total votes | 360,399 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
District 3
The 3rd district encompasses nearly all of the Louisville metropolitan area. The incumbent is Democrat John Yarmuth, who was re-elected with 62.1% of the vote in 2018.[1]
Declared
- John Yarmuth, incumbent U.S. Representative[13]
Declared
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rhonda Palazzo | 19,806 | 42.4 | |
| Republican | Mike Craven | 19,676 | 42.1 | |
| Republican | Waymen Eddings | 7,275 | 15.5 | |
| Total votes | 46,757 | 100.0 | ||
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[3] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[4] | Safe D | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] | Safe D | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[6] | Safe D | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[7] | Safe D | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[8] | Safe D | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[9] | Safe D | June 7, 2020 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Yarmuth (incumbent) | 230,672 | 62.7 | |
| Republican | Rhonda Palazzo | 137,425 | 37.3 | |
| Total votes | 368,097 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
District 4
The 4th district is located in the northeastern part of the state along the Ohio River, including the suburbs of Cincinnati and a small part of Louisville. The incumbent is Republican Thomas Massie, who was re-elected with 62.2% of the vote in 2018.[1]
Declared
- Thomas Massie, incumbent U.S. Representative[15]
- Todd McMurtry, attorney[16]
Declined
- Kim Moser, state representative[17]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Thomas Massie |
Todd McMurty |
Kim Moser |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence[upper-alpha 1] | June 10–11, 2020 | 411 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 77% | 11% | – | 12% |
| WPA Intelligence[upper-alpha 1] | April 27–28, 2020 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 70% | 13% | – | 17% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 2] | February 4–6, 2020 | 300 (V) | ± 5.66% | 71% | 3% | – | – |
| WPA Intelligence[upper-alpha 3] | July 8–9, 2019 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 64% | – | 10% | 26% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Thomas Massie (incumbent) | 68,591 | 81.0 | |
| Republican | Todd McMurtry | 16,092 | 19.0 | |
| Total votes | 84,683 | 100.0 | ||
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Alexandra Owensby | 41,531 | 58.4 | |
| Democratic | Shannon Fabert | 29,557 | 41.6 | |
| Total votes | 71,088 | 100.0 | ||
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[3] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[4] | Safe R | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[6] | Safe R | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[7] | Safe R | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[8] | Safe R | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[9] | Safe R | June 7, 2020 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Thomas Massie (incumbent) | 256,613 | 67.1 | |
| Democratic | Alexandra Owensby | 125,896 | 32.9 | |
| Total votes | 382,509 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
District 5
The 5th district, one of the poorest and most rural in the country, is based in the coalfields of eastern Kentucky. The incumbent is Republican Hal Rogers, who was re-elected with 78.9% of the vote in 2018.[1]
Declared
- Hal Rogers, incumbent U.S. Representative[20]
- Geraldo Serrano, farmer and candidate for Kentucky's 5th congressional district in 2018[20]
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Hal Rogers (incumbent) | 76,575 | 91.1 | |
| Republican | Gerardo Serrano | 7,436 | 8.9 | |
| Total votes | 84,011 | 100.0 | ||
Declared
- Matthew Best[20]
Declined
- Rocky Adkins, minority leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019[21]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[3] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[4] | Safe R | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] | Safe R | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[6] | Safe R | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[7] | Safe R | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[8] | Safe R | June 9, 2020 |
| Niskanen[9] | Safe R | June 7, 2020 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Hal Rogers (incumbent) | 250,914 | 84.2 | |
| Democratic | Matthew Best | 47,056 | 15.8 | |
| Total votes | 297,970 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
District 6
The 6th district is located in central Kentucky, taking in Lexington, Richmond, and Frankfort. The incumbent is Republican Andy Barr, who was re-elected with 51.0% of the vote in 2018.[1]
Declared
- Andy Barr, incumbent U.S. Representative[22]
- Chuck Eddy, retired salesman[23]
- Geoff Young, perennial candidate and assistant director[23]
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Andy Barr (incumbent) | 62,706 | 90.7 | |
| Republican | Chuck Eddy | 3,636 | 5.3 | |
| Republican | Geoff Young | 2,765 | 4.0 | |
| Total votes | 69,107 | 100.0 | ||
Declared
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Josh Hicks | 81,305 | 72.4 | |
| Democratic | Daniel Kemph | 31,064 | 27.6 | |
| Total votes | 112,369 | 100.0 | ||
Endorsements
Josh Hicks (D)
- Charles Booker, state representative and former candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[25]
- VoteVets[26]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[3] | Likely R | July 2, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[4] | Safe R | June 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] | Likely R | July 2, 2020 |
| Politico[6] | Likely R | April 19, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[7] | Likely R | June 3, 2020 |
| RCP[8] | Lean R | October 24, 2020 |
| Niskanen[9] | Lean R | June 7, 2020 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Andy Barr (R) |
Josh Hicks (D) |
Frank Harris (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bluegrass Voters Coalition (D)[upper-alpha 4] | July 13, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 48% | 50% | 2% | 11% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Andy Barr (incumbent) | 216,948 | 57.3 | |
| Democratic | Josh Hicks | 155,011 | 41.0 | |
| Libertarian | Frank Harris | 6,491 | 1.7 | |
| Total votes | 378,450 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Would consider another candidate besides Massie" with 36%; "don't know" with 7%
- Partisan clients
- By the time of this poll's sampling period, the Club for Growth had endorsed Massie's re-election bid
- Poll sponsored by Massie
- The Club for Growth is an organization that exclusively endorses Republican candidates
- This pollster supports candidates it considers politically progressive
References
- Wasserman, David; Flinn, Ally (November 7, 2018). "2018 House Popular Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 8, 2019.
- Overstreet, Melinda J. (January 10, 2020). "Candidates seek to unseat Riley, Rowland and Givens; 17 file for nine Glasgow council seats". Glasgow Daily Times. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
- "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
- "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
- "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
- "November 3, 2020 - Official 2020 General Election Results" (PDF). Kentucky Secretary of State. November 20, 2020. p. 12–19. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
- Swietek, Wes (January 10, 2020). "Minter, Sheldon unopposed in 2020". Bowling Green Daily News. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
- "2020 Primary Election - Certified Election Results" (PDF). Commonwealth of Kentucky - State Board of Elections. Retrieved September 5, 2020.
- Munson, Emilie (January 6, 2020). "Exclusive: Another Republican joins 5th District race". Retrieved January 9, 2020.
- "KENTUCKY". Politics 1. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
- "Thomas Massie". www.facebook.com.
- Bailey, Phillip M.; Sonka, Joe (January 10, 2020). "Attorney in Covington Catholic case challenges Rep. Thomas Massie in GOP primary". Louisville Courier Journal. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
- Bailey, Phillip M. (July 3, 2019). "National Republicans may be maneuvering to unseat Kentucky's conservative darling, Massie". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved July 3, 2019.
- Bailey, Phillip M. (July 4, 2019). "Rand Paul: Thomas Massie has 'my full support' against GOP primary threat". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved August 13, 2019.
- Fair, Julia (January 7, 2020). "This is our best shot at changing things.' NKY Democrat nurse practitioner files to run against Republican Rep. Thomas Massie in 2020". Cincinnati Enquirer. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
- Mills, Jarrod (January 11, 2020). "Several races set as election filing deadline passes". Times-Tribune. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
- Desrochers, Daniel (December 2, 2019). "Rocky Adkins passes on U.S. Senate bid and takes job in Andy Beshear's administration". Lexington Herald Leader.
- "Andy Barr". Facebook. December 16, 2019. Retrieved December 25, 2019.
- Greene, Jonathan (January 14, 2020). "ELECTION 2020: Seven running for city commission". Richmond Register. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
- Schreiner, Bruce (August 1, 2019). "Marine veteran enters race for 6th District seat in Kentucky". Associated Press News. Retrieved August 1, 2019.
- Charles Booker [@Booker4KY] (October 21, 2020). "From the hood to the holler, there is a movement growing in KY. Regular folks are rising up to fight back. @joshhicksky is standing for the people of KY's 6th District, and I am proud to stand with him. Let's send a warrior to Washington: t.co/Tu53QsIu4N t.co/weHGxxkofB" (Tweet). Retrieved January 28, 2021 – via Twitter.
- https://joshhicksforcongress.com/votevets-endorses-josh-hicks-for-congress/
External links
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Kentucky", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Kentucky: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Kentucky". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Kentucky at Ballotpedia
- Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates
- Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates
- Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates
- Official campaign websites for 4th district candidates
- Official campaign websites for 5th district candidates
- Official campaign websites for 6th district candidates
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