2016 United States presidential election in Kentucky

The 2016 United States presidential election in Kentucky was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Kentucky voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Kentucky has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

2016 United States presidential election in Kentucky

November 8, 2016
Turnout59.10%[1]
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 8 0
Popular vote 1,202,971 628,854
Percentage 62.52% 32.68%

County Results

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county.

Although Kentucky was won twice by southern Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, Trump easily carried the state with 62.52% of the vote to Hillary Clinton's 32.68%, a margin of 29.84%. Trump won Kentucky by the largest margin of any Republican since Richard Nixon in 1972, and he swept counties across the state.[3] Clinton only carried the state's two most urban and populous counties: Jefferson County, home to Louisville; and Fayette County, home to Lexington, both of which traditionally vote Democratic. The Bluegrass State was also one of eleven states to have twice voted for Bill Clinton but against his wife Hillary in 2016.

Trump's victory in Kentucky made it his fifth-strongest state in the 2016 election after West Virginia, Wyoming, Oklahoma, and North Dakota.[4] Most notably, Trump ended Elliott County's nearly 150-year tradition of voting Democratic in every presidential election, winning with 2,000 votes to Clinton's 740, or 70%–26%. Nevertheless, he became the first Republican since Warren G. Harding in 1920 to win the White House without carrying Fayette County.

Primary elections

Republican caucus

Republican primary results by county.
  Donald Trump
  Ted Cruz

In order to avoid a local law forbidding one candidate to run for two offices in the same primary, Rand Paul paid to have a presidential caucus, which took place on March 5. Paul dropped out prior to this.[5]

Kentucky Republican caucuses, March 5, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 82,493 35.92% 17 0 17
Ted Cruz 72,503 31.57% 15 0 15
Marco Rubio 37,579 16.36% 7 0 7
John Kasich 33,134 14.43% 7 0 7
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 1,951 0.85% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 872 0.38% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 496 0.22% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 305 0.13% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 174 0.08% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 65 0.03% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 64 0.03% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 31 0.03% 0 0 0
Total: 229,667 100.00% 40 0 40
Source: The Green Papers, Republican Party of Kentucky

Democratic primary

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

Kentucky Democratic primary, May 17, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 212,534 46.76% 28 2 30
Bernie Sanders 210,623 46.33% 27 0 27
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 5,713 1.26%
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente 1,594 0.35%
Uncommitted 24,104 5.30% 0 3 3
Total 454,568 100% 55 5 60
Source: The Green Papers, Kentucky Secretary of State

Polling

Predictions

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Kentucky as of Election Day.

Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[6] Safe R November 6, 2016
CNN[7] Safe R November 8, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe R November 7, 2016
NBC[9] Likely R November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[10] Safe R November 8, 2016
Fox News[11] Safe R November 7, 2016
ABC[12] Safe R November 7, 2016

Results

By county

CountyClinton%Clinton#Trump%Trump#Johnson%Johnson#McMullin%McMullin#Stein%Stein#Others%Others#Totals#
Adair16.07%1,32380.61%6,6371.71%1411.12%920.43%350.06%58,233
Allen16.66%1,34979.87%6,4661.99%1610.78%630.57%460.14%118,096
Anderson23.06%2,63472.16%8,2422.79%3191.44%1650.47%540.07%811,422
Ballard19.90%81677.08%3,1611.88%770.56%230.49%200.10%44,101
Barren23.12%4,27572.93%13,4832.46%4550.90%1670.50%930.08%1518,488
Bath29.67%1,36167.19%3,0821.64%750.76%350.52%240.22%104,587
Bell17.70%1,72079.89%7,7641.48%1440.45%440.43%420.04%49,718
Boone26.08%15,02667.83%39,0823.99%2,2991.32%7630.66%3800.12%6857,618
Bourbon31.71%2,79163.26%5,5693.21%2831.09%960.59%520.14%128,803
Boyd29.44%6,02166.45%13,5912.42%4960.82%1680.82%1670.05%1120,454
Boyle33.07%4,28162.10%8,0402.82%3651.31%1690.56%730.14%1812,946
Bracken19.99%70576.86%2,7111.45%510.99%350.57%200.14%53,527
Breathitt26.79%1,53769.55%3,9912.04%1170.84%480.61%350.17%105,738
Breckinridge22.34%1,96073.90%6,4842.21%1940.91%800.54%470.10%98,774
Bullitt22.89%8,25572.67%26,2102.67%9640.98%3540.70%2530.09%3336,069
Butler16.98%94779.41%4,4282.44%1360.95%530.00%00.22%125,576
Caldwell21.09%1,26075.43%4,5071.97%1180.92%550.54%320.05%35,975
Calloway29.59%4,74964.60%10,3673.07%4921.75%2810.93%1500.06%1016,049
Campbell34.48%14,65858.93%25,0504.21%1,7891.30%5520.99%4220.09%3942,510
Carlisle16.61%43280.51%2,0941.61%420.73%190.46%120.08%22,601
Carroll28.69%1,10667.13%2,5882.59%1000.86%330.62%240.10%43,855
Carter22.14%2,27673.82%7,5872.31%2371.06%1090.56%580.11%1110,278
Casey11.91%76785.14%5,4821.88%1210.62%400.43%280.02%16,439
Christian32.55%7,18863.89%14,1082.15%4740.81%1790.54%1200.06%1422,083
Clark29.04%4,70666.09%10,7102.80%4531.25%2030.75%1210.07%1216,205
Clay11.11%75286.61%5,8611.23%830.59%400.38%260.07%56,767
Clinton12.26%54785.37%3,8091.34%600.52%230.34%150.18%84,462
Crittenden15.28%61781.50%3,2901.88%760.89%360.42%170.02%14,037
Cumberland14.97%45981.60%2,5022.19%670.72%220.36%110.16%53,066
Daviess30.92%14,16363.11%28,9073.25%1,4881.62%7410.99%4530.12%5545,807
Edmonson18.67%97978.85%4,1351.47%770.53%280.38%200.10%55,244
Elliott25.92%74070.05%2,0002.35%670.74%210.67%190.28%82,855
Estill19.98%1,10876.39%4,2362.33%1290.63%350.54%300.13%75,545
Fayette51.19%69,77841.74%56,8943.84%5,2301.93%2,6361.16%1,5800.14%197136,315
Fleming21.53%1,34875.43%4,7221.74%1090.81%510.32%200.16%106,260
Floyd24.27%4,01572.51%11,9932.16%3570.60%1000.34%560.11%1916,540
Franklin44.91%10,71749.52%11,8193.04%7251.44%3430.99%2360.10%2523,865
Fulton32.49%77465.03%1,5491.47%350.67%160.29%70.04%12,382
Gallatin22.44%74973.19%2,4433.00%1000.72%240.54%180.12%43,338
Garrard19.06%1,45377.45%5,9042.06%1570.87%660.43%330.13%107,623
Grant19.98%1,91076.03%7,2682.36%2260.80%760.74%710.08%89,559
Graves19.92%3,30876.30%12,6712.48%4110.67%1120.48%800.14%2416,606
Grayson18.52%1,95977.71%8,2192.45%2590.77%810.43%460.11%1210,576
Green15.60%83281.98%4,3721.58%840.36%190.45%240.04%25,333
Greenup25.47%4,14670.93%11,5461.96%3190.89%1450.67%1090.07%1216,277
Hancock28.96%1,24464.91%2,7883.00%1292.03%871.02%440.07%34,295
Hardin32.31%13,94462.50%26,9713.27%1,4131.02%4400.80%3460.10%4243,156
Harlan12.75%1,37284.87%9,1291.45%1560.45%480.36%390.12%1310,757
Harrison26.10%2,03169.85%5,4352.36%1841.00%780.59%460.09%77,781
Hart23.82%1,73073.24%5,3201.93%1400.44%320.54%390.04%37,264
Henderson34.03%6,70761.69%12,1592.57%5070.90%1770.72%1420.09%1819,710
Henry25.57%1,82869.16%4,9443.13%2241.23%880.81%580.10%77,149
Hickman20.82%44976.82%1,6571.21%260.88%190.28%60.00%02,157
Hopkins21.18%4,31075.09%15,2772.35%4780.80%1630.48%970.10%2020,345
Jackson8.76%48288.87%4,8891.44%790.49%270.36%200.07%45,501
Jefferson54.05%190,83640.72%143,7682.89%10,1881.36%4,7850.91%3,2240.08%298353,099
Jessamine26.34%6,14466.34%15,4743.55%8292.89%6750.73%1700.15%3423,326
Johnson13.06%1,25084.03%8,0431.70%1630.46%440.63%600.13%129,572
Kenton33.63%24,21459.67%42,9584.30%3,0931.30%9380.98%7030.13%9271,998
Knott21.60%1,24575.60%4,3571.77%1020.68%390.00%00.35%205,763
Knox14.66%1,76182.29%9,8851.57%1890.85%1020.53%640.09%1112,012
LaRue20.07%1,27875.37%4,7992.73%1741.26%800.44%280.13%86,367
Laurel13.85%3,44082.92%20,5921.90%4730.77%1920.46%1140.09%2224,833
Lawrence17.30%1,04579.71%4,8161.77%1070.61%370.53%320.08%56,042
Lee16.65%44480.65%2,1511.57%420.71%190.26%70.15%42,667
Leslie8.90%40089.38%4,0150.87%390.40%180.33%150.11%54,492
Letcher16.88%1,54279.84%7,2932.30%2100.54%490.41%370.03%39,134
Lewis14.82%78582.35%4,3631.79%950.64%340.30%160.09%55,298
Lincoln19.51%1,86576.75%7,3382.36%2260.86%820.46%440.06%69,561
Livingston19.10%88776.86%3,5702.48%1150.99%460.52%240.06%34,645
Logan25.28%2,75571.36%7,7782.10%2290.83%910.39%430.03%310,899
Lyon26.38%1,04570.39%2,7891.87%740.91%360.38%150.08%33,962
Madison31.56%11,79362.70%23,4313.18%1,1891.48%5520.94%3530.14%5337,371
Magoffin22.91%1,17274.75%3,8241.29%660.66%340.33%170.06%35,116
Marion33.03%2,67963.15%5,1222.65%2150.73%590.41%330.04%38,111
Marshall21.99%3,67273.79%12,3222.55%4261.04%1740.50%840.12%2016,698
Martin9.18%36388.62%3,5031.32%520.51%200.33%130.05%23,953
Mason27.29%1,97068.49%4,9442.40%1731.21%870.53%380.10%77,219
McCracken29.18%9,13466.36%20,7742.68%8391.02%3200.69%2170.07%2331,307
McCreary11.50%66486.77%5,0121.02%590.33%190.31%180.07%45,776
McLean21.64%98874.05%3,3813.00%1370.96%440.33%150.02%14,566
Meade24.74%3,02670.80%8,6602.72%3330.87%1070.79%970.07%812,231
Menifee25.19%70072.33%2,0101.55%430.50%140.40%110.04%12,779
Mercer22.63%2,39573.12%7,7402.60%2750.95%1010.64%680.06%610,585
Metcalfe21.13%97675.56%3,4911.86%860.89%410.48%220.09%44,620
Monroe12.04%60185.71%4,2781.52%760.46%230.26%130.00%04,991
Montgomery27.58%3,15868.60%7,8562.31%2640.79%910.59%680.13%1511,452
Morgan21.07%1,00675.98%3,6281.32%630.90%430.54%260.19%94,775
Muhlenberg25.05%3,27271.92%9,3931.76%2300.82%1070.34%440.11%1413,060
Nelson30.93%6,43464.57%13,4312.72%5650.97%2010.63%1310.19%4020,802
Nicholas27.70%78768.88%1,9572.29%650.67%190.32%90.14%42,841
Ohio20.00%2,08076.38%7,9421.99%2071.01%1050.62%640.00%010,398
Oldham31.25%10,26862.30%20,4693.74%1,2291.80%5900.86%2820.05%1532,853
Owen21.24%1,06274.89%3,7452.44%1220.86%430.50%250.08%45,001
Owsley14.55%25683.80%1,4741.36%240.00%00.00%00.28%51,759
Pendleton19.38%1,16476.64%4,6042.41%1451.10%660.45%270.02%16,007
Perry20.20%2,13677.17%8,1581.59%1680.54%570.44%470.06%610,572
Pike17.35%4,28080.06%19,7471.67%4130.50%1240.35%860.06%1524,665
Powell25.66%1,27270.87%3,5132.38%1180.44%220.54%270.10%54,957
Pulaski15.01%4,20881.67%22,9022.00%5620.78%2180.45%1270.09%2428,041
Robertson21.92%22274.93%7591.88%190.79%80.49%50.00%01,013
Rockcastle13.68%91583.83%5,6091.30%870.75%500.37%250.07%56,691
Rowan37.24%3,29558.48%5,1742.34%2070.77%680.96%850.21%198,848
Russell13.37%1,09383.96%6,8631.87%1530.59%480.00%00.21%178,174
Scott31.88%7,71562.20%15,0523.52%8531.66%4020.57%1390.16%3924,200
Shelby30.50%6,27664.12%13,1963.06%6291.57%3240.67%1380.08%1720,580
Simpson28.47%2,14467.41%5,0772.66%2000.86%650.50%380.09%77,531
Spencer20.19%1,92175.63%7,1962.49%2371.17%1110.46%440.06%69,515
Taylor22.58%2,55373.59%8,3202.06%2331.26%1420.47%530.04%511,306
Todd21.80%1,04275.58%3,6121.34%640.56%270.54%260.17%84,779
Trigg23.51%1,58773.04%4,9311.79%1210.87%590.67%450.12%86,751
Trimble23.14%87972.96%2,7712.32%880.74%280.53%200.31%123,798
Union21.43%1,33175.69%4,7011.85%1150.53%330.47%290.03%26,211
Warren35.01%16,96659.18%28,6733.31%1,6051.56%7570.86%4150.08%3848,454
Washington25.20%1,42071.20%4,0131.97%1111.06%600.30%170.27%155,636
Wayne17.91%1,43179.72%6,3711.45%1160.51%410.38%300.04%37,992
Webster21.36%1,24075.75%4,3971.91%1110.59%340.38%220.02%15,805
Whitley15.01%2,06782.13%11,3121.76%2420.75%1030.30%410.07%913,774
Wolfe28.58%75368.46%1,8041.59%420.99%260.34%90.04%12,635
Woodford36.56%4,95856.75%7,6973.90%5291.81%2460.86%1170.12%1613,563
Totals32.68%628,85462.52%1,202,9712.79%53,7521.18%22,7800.72%13,9130.10%1,8791,924,149

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Trump won 5 of 6 congressional districts.

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 72% 24% Ed Whitfield
James Comer
2nd 68% 28% Brett Guthrie
3rd 40% 55% John Yarmuth
4th 65% 29% Thomas Massie
5th 80% 18% Hal Rogers
6th 55% 39% Andy Barr

See also

References

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