2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election

The 2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election was held on November 21, 2015, to elect the governor of Louisiana. Incumbent Republican Governor Bobby Jindal was not eligible to run for re-election to a third term because of term limits established by the Louisiana Constitution.

See also: 2015 Louisiana elections

2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election
October 24 and
November 21, 2015
 
Nominee John Bel Edwards David Vitter
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 646,924 505,940
Percentage 56.1% 43.9%
Parish results
Edwards:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Vitter:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Bobby Jindal
Republican

 Elected Governor

John Bel Edwards
Democratic

Elections in Louisiana
Federal government
Presidential Elections

U.S. Senate

U.S. House
State government
State elections by year

Gubernatorial

Lieutenant gubernatorial

Attorney General
Ballot measures
2004
Amendment 1
Baton Rouge
Mayoral elections
New Orleans
Mayoral elections

New Orleans City Council
Shreveport
Mayoral elections
Government

Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appeared on the same ballot, regardless of party and voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. As no candidate received a majority of the vote during the primary election on October 24, 2015, a runoff election was held on November 21, 2015, between the top two candidates in the primary. Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system).

The runoff election featured Democrat John Bel Edwards, Minority Leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives, and Republican U.S. Senator David Vitter, as they were the top two vote getters in the primary. Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, both Republicans, were eliminated in the jungle primary.

In the runoff, which was held November 21, 2015, Edwards defeated Vitter by a count of 56.1% to 43.9%.[1] Edwards became the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Louisiana since 2008, when Mary Landrieu won her third term in the United States Senate; his victory also came one year after national wins for the Republican Party in congressional and state elections. The election was one of the most expensive in state history, with over $50 million spent by candidates and outside groups.[2]

Candidates

Filed

Declined

Filed

Declined

Ineligible
  • Edwin Edwards, former governor, U.S. Representative and state senator (ineligible due to 2000 felony convictions for bribery and racketeering)[25]

Filed
  • Beryl Billiot, restaurant owner and former Marine[26]
  • Jeremy Odom, minister[27]
  • Eric Paul Orgeron[28]

Declined

Endorsements
Scott Angelle
Organizations
  • Terrebonne Republican Party[34]
  • Republican Party of East Baton Rouge Parish[35]
  • Livingston Parish Republican Party[36]
Publishers
  • Greater Baton Rouge Business Report[37]
  • The Hayride, Louisiana Conservative Political Commentary Site[38]
Public Figures
Politicians
  • Paul Hardy, 48th Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana
  • Fred Mills, Louisiana State Senator
  • Guy Cormier, St. Martin Parish President
Jay Dardenne
Politicians
John Bel Edwards
Organizations
Politicians
Newspapers
David Vitter
Organizations
Politicians

Jungle primary

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Scott
Angelle (R)		 Jay
Dardenne (R)		 John Bel
Edwards (D)		 John
Kennedy (R)		 Mitch
Landrieu (D)		 David
Vitter (R)		 Other Undecided
MarblePortLLC October 20–21, 2015 1464 ± 3% 12.7% 14.1% 40.5% — — 28.5% — 4.3%
MRI October 15–19, 2015 600 ± ?% 17% 14% 36% — — 19% 2% 12%
Harper Polling (R) October 16–17, 2015 612 ± 3.9% 14% 14% 36% — — 26% — 9%
KPLC/Raycom Media October 7–13, 2015 602 ± 4% 7% 8% 24% — — 21% — 37%
The Advocate/WWL-TV September 20–23, 2015 800 ± 3.46% 15% 14% 24% — — 24% — 18%
Public Policy Polling September 21–22, 2015 616 ± 4% 15% 14% 28% — — 27% — 17%
Verne Kennedy July 27–31, 2015 600 ± 4% 25% 12% 20% — — 22% — 21%
MarblePort June 17, 2015 1415 ± 2.6% 11.1% 10.4% 28.8% — — 34.1% — 15.6%
Verne Kennedy May 27–29, 2015 700 ± 3.5% 17% 12% 29% — — 29% — 13%
SM&O Research May 5, 2015 600 ± 4.0% 6% 17% 25% — — 38% — 16%
MarblePort March 17, 2015 1,071 ± 2.99% 7% 14% 31% — — 34% — 14%
Triumph March 5, 2015 1,655 ± 2.4% 7% 15% 33% — — 35% — 11%
NSO Research* January 10–13, 2015 600 ± 4% 2% 10% 20% 13% — 24% — 32%
SM&O Research December 9–11, 2014 600 ± ? 3.1% 18.6% 25.7% — — 36.3% — 16.3%
Suffolk October 23–26, 2014 500 ± 4% 3% 9.8% 3.8% — 22.6% 31.6% — 29.2%
Multi-Quest October 22–24, 2014 606 ± 4% 2.3% 10.9% 4% — — 25.9% 3.8%[62] 53.1%
SM&O Research April 28–30, 2014 600 ± ? 3.8% 10.5% 5.5% 11.7% 28.9% 28.9% — 10.6%
PSB April 2014 601 ± ? — 14% 17% 8% — 18% 14%[63] 29%
Magellan March 24–26, 2014 600 ± 4.1% — 13.1% 4.6% 8.5% 26.4% 27.6% — 19.8%
V/C Research February 20–25, 2014 600 ± 4% — 11% 8% 9% 33% 25% — 15%
Kitchens Group** February 10–12, 2014 600 ± 4.2% — 9% 21% 7% — 26% — 38%
WPAOR^ November 12–14, 2013 800 ± 3.5% — 12% 2% 9% 20% 25% 11%[64] 11
— 22% — — 29% 35% — 14%
SM&O Research November 6–12, 2013 600 ± 4% 2.1% 18% 7.9% 18.9% — 30.3% — 22.9%
Magellan October 2–4, 2012 2,862 ± 1.9% — 6.5% — 7.2% 29.4% 31.1% 9.1%[65] 16.7%
  • * Internal poll for the John Kennedy campaign
  • ** Internal poll for the John Bel Edwards campaign
  • ^ Internal poll for the Jay Dardenne campaign

Results
Louisiana gubernatorial election, 2015[66]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Bel Edwards 444,517 39.9
Republican David Vitter 256,300 23.0
Republican Scott Angelle 214,982 19.3
Republican Jay Dardenne 166,656 15.0
Democratic Cary Deaton 11,763 1.1
Democratic S.L. Simpson 7,420 0.7
Independent Beryl Billiot 5,694 0.5
Independent Jeremy Odom 4,756 0.4
Independent Eric Orgeron 2,248 0.2
Total votes 1,114,336 100.0

Runoff

Campaign
Sign for John Bel Edwards

On November 5, 2015, Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne, who finished fourth in the primary election, endorsed Democrat Edwards in the upcoming general election against his intraparty rival, Senator David Vitter. Dardenne made the announcement at "Free Speech Alley" in front of the LSU Student Union building in Baton Rouge.[67] After the primary, polls showed Edwards with a commanding lead over Vitter. Verne Kennedy of Market Research Insight placed Edwards ahead, 54 to 38 percent or 51 to 40 percent, depending on the level of turnout among African-American voters, either 25 or 20 percent, accordingly.[68]

Dardenne's backing of Edwards drew fire from state Republican chairman Roger Villere and Reince Priebus, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, who termed the endorsement a betrayal: "You cannot claim to be a conservative fighter for Louisiana principles and publicly endorse an Obama liberal like Mr. Edwards," the two chairmen wrote. Vitter, who had sought Dardenne's endorsement, said he remains "very excited about our campaign and the tens of thousands of conservative Louisiana voters who have jumped on board in the past week, including so many that voted for Jay. We wish Jay and his family the best."[69]

Third-place contender Scott Angelle never spoke about any role that he would play in the general election, prior to the election.[69]

A debate between Edwards and Vitter was held on November 10 by Louisiana Public Broadcasting and the Council for a Better Louisiana.[70]

Early voting was possible from November 7 until November 14. Despite having one fewer day due to Veterans Day, turnout was significantly higher compared to the primary election early voting, especially among black voters and in urban parishes.[71]

Debates

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[72] Lean D (flip) November 13, 2015
Rothenberg Political Report[73] Tossup November 6, 2015
Sabato's Crystal Ball[74] Lean D (flip) November 19, 2015

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 David
Vitter (R)		 John Bel
Edwards (D)		 Undecided
JMC Analytics November 19, 2015 614 ± 3.9% 43% 47% 10%
RRH Elections November 12–16, 2015 359 ± 5% 42% 48% 10%
JMC Analytics November 14–16, 2015 635 ± 3.9% 35% 51% 13%
JMC Analytics November 14–16, 2015 635 ± 4% 38% 54% 8%
Market Research Insight November 11–14, 2015 600 ± 4% 38% 53% 9%
Hayride/MarblePort November 11, 2015 978 ± 3.1% 42% 48% 10%
Market Research Insight November 11, 2015 600 ± 4% 38% 52% 10%
UNO Survey Research Center November 2–8, 2015 600 ± 4% 34% 56% 10%
Triumph Campaigns November 5, 2015 1,818 ± 3% 41% 49% 10%
WVLA/JMC Analytics October 28–31, 2015 600 ± 4% 32% 52% 16%
Market Research Insight October 27–28, 2015 600 ± 4.1% 38% 54% 8%
Anzalone Liszt Grove October 26–28, 2015 700 ± 3.7% 40% 52% 7%
KPLC/Raycom Media October 7–13, 2015 602 ± 4% 33% 52% ?%
The Advocate/WWL-TV September 20–23, 2015 800 ± 3.46% 41% 45% ?%
Public Policy Polling September 21–22, 2015 616 ± 4% 38% 50% 12%
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% 50% 32% 18%
Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% 52% 30% 17%
The Kitchen Group* February 10–12, 2014 600 ± 4.2% 38% 32% 31%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 51% 30% 19%

*Internal poll for the John Bel Edwards campaign

Results

Edwards' win was the first statewide win for Democrats in Louisiana since Mary Landrieu won a third term to the Senate in 2008. He performed surprisingly well for a Democratic candidate in Louisiana, given that the Cook PVI for the state was R+12 at the time of the election and most Republican candidates won in landslides in prior statewide elections. He performed especially well in Caddo Parish (home of Shreveport), East Baton Rouge Parish, (home of Baton Rouge), and in the reliably Democratic Orleans Parish, (home of New Orleans). Turnout was slightly higher in the November run-off than in the October jungle primary.

Louisiana gubernatorial election runoff, 2015[75]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic John Bel Edwards 646,924 56.11% N/A
Republican David Vitter 505,940 43.89% N/A
Total votes 1,152,864 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

See also

References
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  62. Foster Campbell (D)
  63. Newell Normand (R) 10%, Mike Strain (R) 4%
  64. Rodney Alexander (R) 4%, Foster Campbell (D) 2%, John Georges (D) 2%, Jim Bernhard (D) 1%, Gerald Long (R) 1%, Newell Normand (R) 1%
  65. John Georges (D) 6%, Mike Strain (R) 3.1%
  66. https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/static/2015-10-24/resultsRace/Statewide
  67. Greg Hilburn (November 5, 2015). "Republican Dardenne endorses Democrat Edwards". The Shreveport Times.
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  73. "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". www.insideelections.com.
  74. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » The Baffling Bayou". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org.
  75. https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/static/2015-11-21/resultsRace/Statewide
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