2020 United States presidential election in Louisiana

The 2020 United States presidential election in Louisiana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Louisiana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Louisiana has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

2020 United States presidential election in Louisiana

November 3, 2020
Turnout69.49%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 8 0
Popular vote 1,255,776 856,034
Percentage 58.46% 39.85%

Parish results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Trump won Louisiana on the day of the election 58.5% to 39.9%, a margin of 18.6%, down from 19.4% in 2016. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, his strength in Louisiana came from Caucasian born-again/Evangelical Christians, who supported Trump with 91% of their vote. On the issue of abortion, 57% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in most or all cases. As is the case in most southern states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: Southern Caucasians supported Trump by 77%–22% while African-Americans supported Biden by 88%–10%.[3]

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 4, 2020. On March 13, they were moved to June 20 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[4] Then on April 14, they were further pushed back to July 11.[5]

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump was essentially uncontested in the Republican primary.[6] The state has 46 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[7]

Democratic primary

2020 Louisiana Democratic presidential primary[8]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[9]
Joe Biden 212,555 79.52 54
Bernie Sanders (suspended) 19,859 7.43
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 6,426 2.40
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 6,173 2.31
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 4,617 1.73
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 4,312 1.61
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 2,431 0.91
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 2,363 0.88
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 1,962 0.73
John Delaney (withdrawn) 1,877 0.70
Steve Burke 1,537 0.58
Robby Wells 1,395 0.52
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 902 0.34
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 877 0.33
Total 267,286 100% 54

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[10] Safe R September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[11] Safe R September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] Safe R July 14, 2020
Politico[13] Safe R September 8, 2020
RCP[14] Likely R August 3, 2020
Niskanen[15] Safe R July 26, 2020
CNN[16] Safe R August 3, 2020
The Economist[17] Safe R September 23, 2020
CBS News[18] Likely R August 16, 2020
270towin[19] Safe R August 2, 2020
ABC News[20] Safe R July 31, 2020
NPR[21] Likely R August 3, 2020
NBC News[22] Likely R August 6, 2020
538[23] Safe R November 2, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
270 to Win September 1 – October 22, 2020 October 27, 2020 36.7% 57.7% 5.6% Trump +21.0
FiveThirtyEight until October 25, 2020 October 27, 2020 37.5% 56.1% 6.4% Trump +18.7
Average 37.1% 56.9% 6.0% Trump +19.8

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,556 (LV) ± 3.5% 62%[lower-alpha 3] 36%
Swayable Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 378 (LV) ± 6.7% 57% 39% 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 2,633 (LV) 60% 38%
University of New Orleans Oct 22, 2020 755 (LV) ± 3.6% 59% 36% 4% 1%
Trafalgar Group Oct 4–6, 2020 1,048 (LV) ± 2.95% 54% 36% 3% 1%[lower-alpha 4] 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 2,475 (LV) 60% 38% 2%
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[upper-alpha 1] Sep 2–5, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 48% 42% 2% No voters[lower-alpha 5] 7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 2,587 (LV) 59% 38% 2%
Trafalgar Group Aug 13–17, 2020 1,002 (LV) ± 2.99% 54% 38% 3% 1%[lower-alpha 6] 4%
ALG Research/Perkins for LA[upper-alpha 2] Aug 6–12, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 43% 7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 2,998 (LV) 60% 39% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 1,134 (LV) 60% 37% 3%
Hypothetical polling
with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Opponent
Other Undecided
Multi-Quest International/The Hay Ride Jul 19–21, 2019 601 (RV) ± 4% 50% 39% 1%[lower-alpha 7] 10%
Market Research Insight Apr 9–11, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.1% 54% 37% 10%
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/LaPolitics Aug 6–12, 2020 600 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 43%

Statewide results

2020 United States presidential election in Louisiana[24]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
1,255,776 58.46% +0.46%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
856,034 39.85% +1.45%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
21,645 1.01% -0.89%
The Birthday Party Kanye West
Michelle Tidball
4,897 0.23% N/A
American Solidarity Brian Carroll
Amar Patel
2,497 0.12% N/A
Becoming One Nation Jade Simmons
Claudeliah Rose
1,626 0.08% N/A
C.U.P. President Boddie
Eric Stoneham
1,125 0.05% N/A
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman
987 0.05% N/A
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr
860 0.04% N/A
Freedom and Prosperity Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard
749 0.03% N/A
Life, Liberty, Constitution Tom Hoefling
Andy Prior
668 0.03% N/A
Unity Bill Hammons
Eric Bodenstab
662 0.03% N/A
Socialist Workers Alyson Kennedy
Malcolm Jarrett
536 0.02% N/A
Total votes 2,148,062 100.00%

Results by parish

Vote breakdown by parish[24]
Trump/Pence
Republican
Biden/Harris
Democratic
Jorgensen/Cohen
Libertarian
West/Tidball
Birthday
Pierce/Ballard
Freedom and Prosperity
Write-ins[lower-alpha 8] Total
Parish Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes
Acadia22,59679.49%5,44319.15%2410.85%450.16%60.02%940.33%28,425
Allen7,57477.21%2,10821.49%730.74%150.15%30.03%370.38%9,810
Ascension40,68765.28%20,39932.73%8161.31%1340.22%280.04%2610.42%62,325
Assumption7,27164.72%3,83334.12%680.61%160.14%30.03%440.39%11,235
Avoyelles12,02869.56%4,97928.79%1610.93%410.24%30.02%800.46%17,292
Beauregard13,57582.99%2,54215.54%1721.05%130.08%10.01%540.33%16,357
Bienville3,89155.19%3,06743.50%490.70%120.17%30.04%280.40%7,050
Bossier38,07469.66%15,66228.66%6321.16%820.15%150.03%1900.35%54,655
Caddo48,02145.77%55,11052.53%1,0210.97%2900.28%330.03%4370.42%104,912
Calcasieu55,06666.62%25,98231.43%1,0831.31%1640.20%270.03%3410.41%82,663
Caldwell3,97683.49%74515.64%210.44%30.06%10.02%160.34%4,762
Cameron3,67190.66%3248.23%230.58%50.13%00.00%160.41%3,939
Catahoula3,54172.89%1,26926.12%260.54%50.10%10.02%160.33%4,858
Claiborne3,77057.29%2,73141.50%290.44%120.18%40.06%340.52%6,580
Concordia5,55062.87%3,17735.99%640.72%50.06%40.05%280.32%8,828
De Soto9,11261.83%5,45737.03%790.54%210.14%90.06%580.39%14,736
East Baton Rouge88,42042.47%115,57755.52%2,4401.17%6190.30%770.04%1,0490.50%208,182
East Carroll1,08035.57%1,90062.58%200.66%40.13%10.03%311.02%3,036
East Feliciana6,06457.70%4,28040.73%890.85%160.15%40.04%560.53%10,509
Evangeline11,05371.72%4,15826.98%960.62%220.14%50.03%780.51%15,412
Franklin6,97071.71%2,65827.35%450.46%80.08%50.05%340.35%9,720
Grant8,11786.42%1,15712.32%790.84%50.05%40.04%300.32%9,392
Iberia21,25164.96%11,02733.71%2530.77%600.18%110.03%1110.34%32,713
Iberville7,89347.21%8,51450.92%1410.84%570.34%110.07%1030.62%16,719
Jackson5,39470.68%2,14328.08%510.67%160.21%30.04%250.33%7,632
Jefferson105,94954.69%84,47743.60%1,9351.00%5320.27%660.03%7740.40%193,733
Jefferson Davis11,42376.97%3,20821.62%1310.88%220.15%50.03%510.34%14,840
Lafayette72,51963.32%39,68534.65%1,5121.32%2560.22%470.04%5020.44%114,521
Lafourche36,02479.37%8,67219.11%4240.93%800.18%170.04%1710.38%45,388
LaSalle6,37890.12%6389.02%390.55%50.07%10.01%160.23%7,077
Lincoln11,31158.68%7,55939.22%2761.43%400.21%40.02%850.44%19,275
Livingston54,87784.13%9,24914.18%8171.25%980.15%130.02%1760.27%65,230
Madison1,93041.33%2,65456.83%230.49%120.26%70.15%440.94%4,670
Morehouse6,51056.25%4,94642.73%560.48%80.07%30.03%510.44%11,574
Natchitoches9,35856.53%6,89641.66%1721.04%280.17%60.04%940.57%16,554
Orleans26,66415.00%147,85483.15%1,6030.90%7080.40%760.04%9140.51%177,819
Ouachita42,25561.09%25,91337.46%6240.90%1250.18%150.02%2340.34%69,166
Plaquemines7,41267.30%3,41431.00%1030.94%310.28%60.05%480.44%11,014
Pointe Coupee7,50360.65%4,68337.85%940.76%210.17%60.05%640.52%12,371
Rapides38,34765.14%19,47533.08%6931.18%1250.21%180.03%2250.38%58,865
Red River2,41358.40%1,64439.79%310.75%100.24%10.02%330.80%4,132
Richland6,60766.47%3,22532.44%530.53%120.12%30.03%400.40%9,940
Sabine8,77682.82%1,73116.34%490.46%80.08%20.02%300.28%10,596
St. Bernard11,17963.34%6,15134.85%1881.07%490.28%60.03%770.44%17,650
St. Charles18,23363.96%9,80034.38%2941.03%630.22%140.05%1040.36%28,517
St. Helena2,71444.07%3,34654.34%430.70%100.16%20.03%430.70%6,158
St. James5,95447.33%6,51051.75%370.29%230.18%50.04%510.41%12,590
St. John the Baptist7,53835.17%13,58263.37%1180.55%630.29%160.07%1150.54%21,432
St. Landry23,17156.30%17,37242.21%3010.73%780.19%170.04%2150.52%41,154
St. Martin18,20367.32%8,43931.21%2050.76%550.20%120.04%1240.46%27,038
St. Mary14,81163.88%8,05534.74%1730.75%520.22%70.03%880.38%23,186
St. Tammany99,66671.13%37,74626.94%1,8681.33%2870.20%450.03%4980.36%140,110
Tangipahoa37,80665.57%18,88732.76%5891.02%1360.24%170.03%2260.39%57,661
Tensas1,19746.87%1,32952.04%110.43%40.16%00.00%130.51%2,554
Terrebonne34,33974.26%11,19824.22%4340.94%810.18%150.03%1730.37%46,240
Union8,40775.06%2,65423.69%760.68%140.12%30.03%470.42%11,201
Vermilion21,93080.26%5,00918.33%2280.83%450.16%120.04%1000.37%27,324
Vernon14,10781.69%2,89816.78%1881.09%180.10%30.02%540.31%17,268
Washington13,30768.20%5,97030.59%1200.61%400.20%30.02%730.37%19,513
Webster11,83064.94%6,17233.88%1190.65%240.13%50.03%660.36%18,216
West Baton Rouge7,68454.51%6,20043.98%1220.87%420.30%50.04%440.31%14,097
West Carroll4,31785.45%71014.05%120.24%30.06%10.02%90.18%5,052
West Feliciana3,86361.63%2,29836.66%661.05%150.24%10.02%250.40%6,268
Winn4,61974.20%1,54324.79%360.58%40.06%30.05%200.32%6,225

By congressional district

Trump won 5 of the 6 congressional districts in Louisiana.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 65% 33% Steve Scalise
2nd 28% 70% Cedric Richmond
3rd 68% 30% Clay Higgins
4th 61% 37% Mike Johnson
5th 65% 34% Ralph Abraham
6th 62% 36% Garret Graves

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
  5. "Refused" with no voters
  6. "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
  7. "Refused" with 1%
  8. Includes Brian T. Carroll, Jade Simmons, President Boddie, Gloria La Riva, Don Blankenship, Tom Hoefling, Bill Hammons, and Alyson Kennedy.
Partisan clients
  1. The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
  2. Poll sponsored by Adrians Perkins' campaign in the 2020 United States Senate election in Louisiana

See also

References

  1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. "Louisiana Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  4. "Louisiana postpones Democratic primary over coronavirus, the first state to do so". CNBC. March 13, 2020.
  5. "Louisiana presidential primary pushed back again, to July 11". ABC News. April 14, 2020.
  6. "Donald Trump, Joe Biden win Louisiana's presidential primary". Associated Press. July 11, 2020.
  7. "Louisiana Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 23, 2020.
  8. "Results for Election Date: 7/11/2020". Louisiana Secretary of State. Retrieved October 13, 2020.
  9. "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved July 11, 2020.
  10. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  11. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  12. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  13. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  14. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  15. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  16. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  17. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  18. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  19. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  20. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  21. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  22. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  23. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  24. "Official Election Results - Presidential Electors". Louisiana Secretary of State. Retrieved November 19, 2020.

Further reading

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