2018 Hessian state election

The 2018 Hessian state election was held on 28 October 2018 to elect the members of the Landtag of Hesse.[1] The incumbent coalition government of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and The Greens led by Minister-President Volker Bouffier retained its majority by a slim margin of one seat.

2018 Hesse state election
28 October 2018
All 137 seats of the Landtag of Hesse, including 27 overhang and leveling seats
69 seats needed for a majority
Turnout2,882,261 (67.3%)
5.9%
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Volker Bouffier Tarek Al-Wazir
Priska Hinz		 Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel
Party CDU Green SPD
Last election 47 seats, 38.3% 14 seats, 11.1% 37 seats, 30.7%
Seats won 40 29 29
Seat change 7 15 8
Popular vote 776,910 570,512 570,446
Percentage 27.0% 19.8% 19.8%
Swing 11.3% 8.7% 10.9%
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Rainer Rahn René Rock Janine Wissler
Jan Schalauske
Party AfD FDP Left
Last election 0 seats, 4.1% 6 seats, 5.0% 6 seats, 5.2%
Seats won 19 11 9
Seat change 19 5 3
Popular vote 378,692 215,946 181,263
Percentage 13.1% 7.5% 6.3%
Swing 9.0% 2.5% 1.1%
Minister-President before election

Volker Bouffier
CDU

 Elected Minister-President

Volker Bouffier
CDU

The election was held two weeks after the 2018 Bavarian state election, which saw the CSU and Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffer major losses, with third parties making major gains. The result in Hesse was largely similar, with the CDU and SPD losing more than 20 percentage points between them, while the Greens and Alternative for Germany (AfD) gained approximately 9 points each. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) and The Left also made gains. Compared to the 2013 election turnout fell by 5.9 points to 67.3%.[2]

Despite suffering the worst losses of any party, the CDU remained the largest party by a comfortable margin. The Greens and SPD each won 29 seats and 19.8% of the vote; the Greens moved into second place by an extremely narrow margin of just 66 votes. AfD, which failed to win seats in 2013, won 13.1% and 19 seats. By entering the Landtag in Hesse, it became the only third party present in all sixteen German state legislatures.

The election was overshadowed by the poor condition of the federal government in the aftermath of the "asylum quarrel" in June/July and the crisis around Hans-Georg Maaßen in September.[3][4] One day after the election, federal Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that she would not seek re-election as CDU leader at the party convention in early December, nor seek her party's nomination as Chancellor candidate for the next federal election.[5]

Background

The incumbent Hesse government coalition consisted of CDU and the Greens.

The regional election for Hesse, along with the Bavarian state election held just two weeks before, was widely seen as a test for the ruling CDU/CSU and SPD coalition of Angela Merkel's fourth federal cabinet.[6]

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the previous Landtag of Hesse.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2013 result
Votes (%) Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands		 Christian democracy Volker Bouffier 38.3%
47 / 110
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands		 Social democracy Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel 30.7%
37 / 110
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen		 Green politics Tarek Al-Wazir
Priska Hinz		 11.1%
14 / 110
Linke The Left
Die Linke		 Democratic socialism Janine Wissler
Jan Schalauske		 5.2%
6 / 110
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei		 Classical liberalism René Rock 5.0%
6 / 110

Opinion polling
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 CDU SPD Grüne Linke FDP AfD Others Lead
2018 state election 28 Oct 2018 – 27.0 19.8 19.8 6.3 7.5 13.1 6.5 7.2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 24–25 Oct 2018 1,025 28 20 20 8 8 12 4 8
Civey 18–24 Oct 2018 4,467 27.0 22.0 18.5 7.5 8.0 13.0 4.0 5.0
INSA 18–22 Oct 2018 1,004 26 21 21 8 7 13 4 5
Infratest dimap 16–17 Oct 2018 1,002 26 21 20 8 9 12 4 5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 15–17 Oct 2018 1,035 26 20 22 8 8 12 4 4
Civey 2–12 Oct 2018 4,549 28.5 24.9 18.2 7.5 5.6 11.8 3.5 3.6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 24 Sep–1 Oct 2018 1,038 29 23 18 8 6 13 3 6
Civey 19–26 Sep 2018 4,509 28.6 23.0 15.8 8.8 7.6 12.4 3.8 5.6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 17–19 Sep 2018 1,039 32 25 15 8 6 11 3 7
Infratest dimap 13–19 Sep 2018 1,000 28 23 17 8 7 14 3 5
INSA 3–6 Sep 2018 1,039 29 24 14 8 7 14 4 5
Civey 14–30 Aug 2018 4,532 31.1 23.9 13.4 7.9 7.1 12.7 3.9 7.2
Infratest dimap 14–19 Jun 2018 1,003 31 22 14 7 7 15 4 9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 4–11 Jun 2018 1,049 31 25 13 8 8 11 4 6
INSA 9–16 May 2018 1,067 33 24 13 8 7 11 4 9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 19–21 Mar 2018 1,011 31 26 13 8 7 10 5 5
Allensbach 19 Dec 2017–31 Jan 2018 760 31 26 12 7 9 11 ? 5
Forsa 8–22 Feb 2018 1,035 33 23 14 7 8 10 5 10
Infratest dimap 9–16 Jan 2018 1,006 31 25 13 8 8 12 3 6
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 – 30.9 23.5 9.7 8.1 11.5 11.9 4.4 7.3
Infratest dimap 5–10 Jan 2017 1,003 32 24 14 8 6 14 2 8
dimap 15–22 Aug 2016 1,000 36 27 13 6 4 9 5 9
Forsa 1–8 Apr 2016 1,004 33 27 11 6 7 10 6 6
Infratest dimap 12–16 Jan 2016 1,000 34 26 11 8 5 12 4 8
Forsa 17–26 Aug 2015 1,009 38 28 13 5 5 4 7 14
dimap 6–13 Jul 2015 1,003 41 27 14 6 6 2 4 14
dimap 10–14 Dec 2014 1,000 38 27 16 7 2 5 5 11
2014 European election 25 May 2014 – 30.6 30.3 12.9 5.6 4.1 9.1 7.3 0.3
Forsa 18–27 Feb 2014 1,002 39 27 12 7 5 5 5 12
2013 federal election 22 Sep 2013 – 39.2 28.8 9.9 6.0 5.6 5.6 4.9 10.4
2013 state election 22 Sep 2013 – 38.3 30.7 11.1 5.2 5.0 4.1 5.6 7.6


Results

Summary of the 28 October 2018 final election results for the Hessian Landtag[2]

Party Constituency Party list Total seats
Votes % +/− Seats +/− Votes % +/− Seats +/− Seats +/− %
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 843,068 29.3% −13.4 40 −1 776,910 27.0% −11.3 0 −6 40 −7 29.2%
Alliance '90/The Greens (Grünen) 517,904 18.0% +8.7 5 +5 570,512 19.8% +8.7 24 +10 29 +15 21.2%
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 670,637 23.3% −11.8 10 −4 570,446 19.8% −10.9 19 −4 29 −8 21.2%
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 362,210 12.6% +11.2 0 378,692 13.1% +9.0 19 +19 19 +9 13.9%
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 205,384 7.1% +4.1 0 215,946 7.5% +2.5 11 +5 11 +5 8.0%
The Left (Die Linke) 164,535 5.7% +0.5 0 181,332 6.3% +1.1 9 +3 9 +3 6.6%
Others 109,332 4.0% ±0 0 ±0 187,423 6.5% ±0 0 ±0 0 ±0 0%
Total 2,873,070 100.0% 55 2,881,261 100.0% 82 137 +27 100%

State government formation

Despite heavy losses inflicted on the party, the CDU returned to government after negotiating a coalition agreement with the Greens, the second consecutive such arrangement between the two parties. The two parties formed the narrowest possible majority in the Landtag, occupying 69 seats. As part of the agreement, the Greens increased their representation in the Cabinet, holding four of the eleven portfolios.[7] The returned coalition only became possible after a recount of votes took place several weeks after the election, due to computer glitches which affected some election night results. Following the recount, the state election commissioner announced that compared to the provisional figures, there were no significant shifts in the percentages, and the distribution of seats in the state parliament had not changed.[8]

References
  1. http://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm#termine-2018-01-23
  2. https://statistik-hessen.de/l_2018/html/landesergebnis Official result
  3. Was die Hessenwahl für die Bundespolitik bedeutet, Frankfurter Allgemeine, 28 October 2018
  4. Schicksalswahl für Merkels Koalition, Frankfurter Allgemeine, 26 October 2018
  5. Angela Merkel bietet Verzicht auf Parteivorsitz an, Die Zeit, 29 October 2018
  6. "Hesse election: Merkel facing double trouble in German vote". BBC News. 26 October 2018. Retrieved 28 October 2018.
  7. "How the unlikely team of CDU and Greens have reunited in Hesse". The Local. 20 December 2018.
  8. "Merkel's CDU and Greens can breathe sigh of relief after Hesse vote recount". The Local. 16 November 2018.

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