2018 Bavarian state election

The 2018 Bavarian state election took place on 14 October 2018 to elect the 180 members of the 18th Landtag of Bavaria.[1] The incumbent government of the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) led by Minister President Markus Söder lost its majority.

2018 Bavarian state election
14 October 2018
205 seats in the Landtag of Bavaria (including 25 overhang and leveling seats)
103 seats needed for a majority
Registered9,479,428
Turnout6,852,036 (72.3%)
8.7pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Markus Söder Katharina Schulze
Ludwig Hartmann		 Hubert Aiwanger
Party CSU Green FW
Last election 101 seats, 47.7% 18 seats, 8.6% 19 seats, 9.0%
Seats before 101 17 17
Seats won 85 38 27
Seat change 16 21 10
Popular vote 5,046,081 2,392,356 1,572,792
Percentage 37.2% 17.6% 11.6%
Swing 10.5pp 9.0pp 2.6pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Martin Sichert Natascha Kohnen Martin Hagen
Party AfD SPD FDP
Last election did not contest 42 seats, 20.6% 0 seats, 3.3%
Seats before - 42 0
Seats won 22 22 11
Seat change 22 20 11
Popular vote 1,388,622 1,309,078 690,499
Percentage 10.2% 9.7% 5.1%
Swing 10.2pp 10.9pp 1.8pp
Results for the single-member constituencies in the election.
Minister President before election

Markus Söder
CSU

 Elected Minister President

Markus Söder
CSU

The CSU and Social Democratic Party (SPD) both lost more than 10 percentage points compared to the 2013 election, finishing at 37.2% and 9.7% respectively. The SPD, which had previously been the second largest party, fell to fifth place. The Greens gained 8.9 points and emerged as the second strongest party with 17.5%. Alternative for Germany (AfD), which ran in Bavaria for the first time, placed fourth with 10.2% of the total vote. The Free Democratic Party (FDP), which failed to enter the Landtag in 2013, narrowly made it in with 5.1%, becoming the smallest party in the new legislature. The Free Voters of Bavaria (FW) gained 2.6 points and finished third, slightly ahead of AfD at 11.6%. Turnout soared to 72.3%, up 8.7 points from 63.6% in 2013.[2]

The election was overshadowed by the condition of the federal CDU/CSU–SPD government following two crises in the preceding months; the so-called asylum quarrel in June and July, followed by the controversy around Hans-Georg Maaßen in September. CSU leader Horst Seehofer played a major role in both events. Four days before the Bavarian election, federal SPD leader Andrea Nahles criticised Chancellor Angela Merkel, accusing her of a "lack of leadership".[3]

Election date and preparation deadlines

According to the Bavarian Constitution, the election must be held on a Sunday "at the earliest 59 months, at the latest 62 months" after the preceding state elections[4] which took place on 15 September 2013. This would theoretically allow an election date between 19 August and 11 November 2018, but in practice the elections since 1978 have always taken place between mid-September and mid-October.[5] The Bavarian state government proposed 14 October 2018 as the election date on 9 January 2018[6] and officially set it on 20 February after hearing the parties to the state parliament.[7]

The deadline for determining the population figures, which are decisive for the distribution of the 180 Landtag mandates among the seven Bavarian administrative districts and a possible new division of the constituencies, was 15 June 2016 (33 months after the election of the previous Landtag).[8] On this basis, the Bavarian Ministry of the Interior had to submit a constituency report to the Landtag until 36 months after the election[9] This was done on 6 September 2016.

Delegates to the internal constituency meetings could be appointed at the earliest 43 months after the preceding election, i.e. since 16 April 2017. The actual district candidates had been eligible since 16 July 2017.[10][11] The parties and other organised electoral groups which had not been represented continuously in the Bavarian Land Parliament or in the German Bundestag since their last election on the basis of their own election proposals (CDU, CSU, SPD, Free Voters of Bavaria, Alliance 90/The Greens, FDP, Die Linke, AfD) had to notify their intention to participate to the State Election Commissioner by the 90th day before the election, i.e. by 16 July 2018 at the latest.[12] The actual election proposals and any necessary signatures had to be submitted by 2 August 2018.[13]

Electoral system
Ballot paper for the second vote in electoral district 104 of the Upper Bavaria constituency.

Bavaria, in line with the rest of the country, uses mixed-member proportional representation to elect its members of the Landtag. Party representation is not apportioned statewide, the distribution of seats takes place separately within the seven administrative districts (Regierungsbezirke), which are referred to in the electoral law as constituencies. The constituencies are divided into districts in which one member is directly elected. The number of single member districts is about half the number of seats in the constituency. In contrast to the Bundestag election law, the distribution of seats by proportional representation takes into account the parties' aggregate first (district) votes combined with their second (constituency) votes, i.e. both the first and second votes affect the distribution of seats in the Landtag, as opposed to just the second votes, which is the norm elsewhere in the country. Only Parties and groups of voters who obtain at least 5% of the total votes (sum of first and second votes) in Bavaria participate in the distribution of seats. This threshold also applies to winning single-member districts; a party will forfeit all its district seats that it won if the party did not meet the 5% statewide threshold.

Unlike the other German states (and also countries using MMP), Bavaria uses an open-list system for its party-list seats. Voters not only cast a vote for a candidate in their district, but they also cast a vote for a list candidate in their region. For the distribution of list seats, all district (local) candidates are also constituency (regional) candidates with their parties. The party may also nominate regional-only candidates to account for the possibility of overhangs and expansion of the Landtag. A candidate (if he or she did not win his or her district) is ranked within his or her list by the number of first votes he or she receives within the district plus the number of second votes he or she receives from voters elsewhere in the region. In this manner, voters collectively can produce a list that is different from what the party submitted, which can result in the defeat of candidates that would have been elected (and vice versa) had the election taken place under a closed-list system.[14]

Boundary changes
Constituencies for the Bavarian state election, 2018.

In the statutory constituency report of September 2016, the state government stated that the numerical distribution of the 180 state parliament seats among the constituencies would have to be changed due to changes in the number of inhabitants. It was recommended that a seat previously to be awarded in the Lower Franconia constituency be allocated to the Upper Bavaria constituency.

Within Upper Bavaria, the additional seat was used to reshape the single member districts in the state capital of Munich, as two of them — Giesing and Milbertshofen[15] — exceeded the average population by more than 15 percent. Upper Bavaria now has 31 single member districts for the 2018 elections, nine of which are accounted for by the state capital.

Seats and single member districts are distributed as follows:[16]

Constituency Seats Single member districts
Upper Bavaria 61 31
Lower Bavaria 18 9
Upper Palatinate 16 8
Upper Franconia 16 8
Middle Franconia 24 12
Lower Franconia 19 10
Swabia 26 13
Total 180 91

Starting position
Anti-Söder-election poster in Großnöbach (Fahrenzhausen) in the Freising district.

Since the state elections in Bavaria in 2013, the CSU has again had the absolute majority of seats, as it did from 1962 to 2008. In December 2017, however, Minister President of Bavaria Horst Seehofer (CSU) finally declared his renunciation of the top candidate in the state elections in Bavaria 2018, partly due to the poor performance of the CSU in the 2017 Bundestag elections. In March 2018, he also resigned from his office as Minister President of Bavaria before the end of the parliamentary term. The former Bavarian Finance Minister Markus Söder was elected as the new top CSU candidate and later also as Minister President of Bavaria in the state parliament.

Campaign

CSU

In 2018, the CSU Markus Söder's government enacted the Kreuzpflicht, an obligation to display crosses at the entrance of public buildings. Söder has stated that the crosses are not to be seen as Christian symbols, but as symbols of Bavarian cultural identity.[17]

Some observers have described the Kreuzpflicht as a measure to appeal to voters deserting the Christian democratic conservative CSU for the right-wing nationalist AfD party. Also the CSU interior minister Horst Seehofer has taken a harder line on immigration.[18]

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 17th Landtag of Bavaria.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2013 result
Votes (%) Seats
CSU Christian Social Union in Bavaria
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern		 Christian democracy Markus Söder 47.7%
101 / 180
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands		 Social democracy Natascha Kohnen 20.6%
42 / 180
FW Free Voters of Bavaria
Freie Wähler Bayern		 Regionalism Hubert Aiwanger 9.0%
19 / 180
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen		 Green politics Katharina Schulze
Ludwig Hartmann		 8.6%
18 / 180

Leaders' debate

A Leaders' debate between Minister President Markus Söder (CSU) and Ludwig Hartmann (Alliance 90/The Greens) took place on 26 September 2018. The Bayerischer Rundfunk justified the party selection with the result of the Bayerntrend of September 12, 2018, according to which CSU and Greens can hope for the most votes in the election. SPD Secretary-General Uli Grötsch described this decision as "completely absurd".[19] A programme with representatives of the other five parties, whose survey results were above or close to the five percent hurdle, followed on 28 September 2018: Natascha Kohnen (SPD), Hubert Aiwanger (Free Voters), Martin Sichert (AfD), Martin Hagen (FDP) and Ates Gürpinar (The Left). The first programme was moderated by BR editor-in-chief Christian Nitsche, the second by Ursula Heller.

Opinion polling

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 CSU SPD FW Grüne FDP Linke AfD Others Lead
2018 state election 14 Oct 2018 – 37.2 9.7 11.6 17.6 5.1 3.2 10.2 5.4 19.6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 10–11 Oct 2018 1,075 34 12 10 19 5.5 4 10 5.5 15
Civey 6–10 Oct 2018 5,063 32.9 11.0 9.8 18.5 5.9 3.9 12.8 5.2 14.4
INSA 2–8 Oct 2018 1,707 33 10 11 18 5.5 4.5 14 4 15
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1–4 Oct 2018 1,122 35 12 10 18 5.5 4.5 10 5 17
Infratest dimap 1–2 Oct 2018 1,002 33 11 11 18 6 4.5 10 6.5 15
GMS 20–26 Sep 2018 1,004 35 13 10 16 5 4 12 5 19
INSA 21–25 Sep 2018 1,064 34 11 10 17 6 4 14 4 17
Civey 19–23 Sep 2018 5,061 36.0 12.0 8.6 17.9 5.0 3.3 13.2 4.0 18.1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 17–19 Sep 2018 1,114 35 13 11 18 5 4 10 4 17
Infratest dimap 5–10 Sep 2018 1,000 35 11 11 17 5 5 11 5 18
GMS 4–10 Sep 2018 1,006 36 12 7 16 6 4 14 5 20
Civey 30 Aug–9 Sep 2018 5,046 35.8 12.1 8.1 16.5 5.8 2.7 13.7 5.3 19.3
INSA 23–27 Aug 2018 1,033 36 13 8 15 6 3 14 5 21
Civey 15–26 Aug 2018 5,049 37.8 11.8 8.1 15.1 6.1 2.5 13.5 5.1 22.7
Civey 30 Jul–13 Aug 2018 5,047 38.1 12.3 7.3 15.0 5.3 2.7 15.2 4.1 22.9
Forsa 25 Jul–9 Aug 2018 1,105 37 12 8 17 5 4 13 4 20
GMS 25–31 Jul 2018 1,004 39 12 8 14 6 3 13 5 25
Infratest dimap 11–16 Jul 2018 1,003 38 13 9 16 5 4 12 3 22
GMS 5–11 Jul 2018 1,007 39 12 7 14 6 3 14 5 25
Forsa 4–6 Jul 2018 1,003 38 12 8 15 6 3 14 4 23
Civey 23 Jun–5 Jul 2018 5,093 42.5 13.7 6.0 13.2 5.2 2.8 13.1 3.5 28.8
INSA 25–27 Jun 2018 1,231 41 13 6 13 5 3 14 5 27
Forsa 21–22 Jun 2018 1,033 40 13 8 14 5 3 13 4 26
Civey 19 May–7 Jun 2018 5,066 41.1 13.4 7.0 12.6 4.8 3.5 13.5 4.1 27.6
GMS 11–16 May 2018 1,005 42 13 7 12 5 2 13 6 29
Civey 23 Apr–11 May 2018 5,082 42.1 13.7 6.6 13.5 5.1 2.9 12.0 4.1 28.4
Infratest dimap 22–27 Apr 2018 1,002 41 12 7 14 6 3 12 5 27
GMS 20–26 Apr 2018 1,002 44 14 6 11 5 3 12 5 30
INSA 17–20 Apr 2018 1,005 42 13 6 13 7 3 13 3 29
Civey 19 Mar–5 Apr 2018 5,048 44.5 14.8 6.5 11.3 4.2 2.8 11.9 4.0 29.7
GMS 16–21 Mar 2018 1,004 43 15 6 11 6 3 12 4 28
Civey 2–15 Mar 2018 5,004 41.4 14.2 8.4 12.0 4.6 3.0 12.1 4.3 27.2
Civey 12–26 Feb 2018 5,040 39.4 13.4 8.6 12.2 5.3 3.5 12.3 5.3 26.0
Forsa 8–22 Feb 2018 1,027 42 14 7 14 6 3 10 4 28
GMS 1–9 Feb 2018 1,510 40 15 6 11 6 3 12 7 25
Civey 6–16 Jan 2018 5,040 39.9 14.8 7.6 11.4 5.8 3.4 13.1 4.0 21.1
Infratest dimap 3–8 Jan 2018 1,002 40 16 7 14 5 3 10 5 24
GMS 27 Dec 2017–1 Jan 2018 1,007 39 15 7 10 7 3 12 7 24
INSA 12–13 Dec 2017 1,003 40 15 7 12 7 4 12 3 25
Civey 24 Nov–13 Dec 2017 5,019 36.7 16.0 8.3 12.1 7.1 2.9 12.9 4.0 20.7
GMS 27–29 Nov 2017 1,006 37 15 7 10 8 3 14 6 22
Civey 16 Oct–16 Nov 2017 5,034 38.8 14.9 6.5 10.8 8.0 3.6 13.5 3.9 23.9
Forsa 6–9 Nov 2017 1,017 38 17 7 11 9 4 11 3 21
INSA 2–3 Nov 2017 1,033 37 17 8 10 8 4 13 3 20
GMS 13–18 Oct 2017 1,004 41 15 6 11 7 3 13 4 26
Civey 25 Sep–13 Oct 2017 5,043 40.7 14.1 7.0 12.4 7.1 3.4 11.3 4.0 26.6
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 – 38.8 15.3 2.7 9.8 10.2 6.1 12.4 4.8 23.5
Infratest dimap 4–9 Jan 2017 1,001 45 14 7 13 4 3 10 4 31
GMS 27 Oct–2 Nov 2016 1,005 44 18 6 10 6 2 9 5 26
GMS 8–12 Oct 2016 1,013 45 19 6 10 5 2 9 4 26
GMS 9–14 Sep 2016 1,015 45 18 5 12 5 2 9 4 27
Forsa 4–15 Jul 2016 1,008 43 16 6 14 4 3 8 6 27
Infratest dimap 11–14 Jul 2016 1,000 45 17 5 13 4 – 9 7 28
GMS 8–13 Jul 2016 1,015 47 17 6 11 5 2 7 5 30
INSA 17 May–8 Jun 2016 1,698 47.5 17.5 4.5 11.5 3.5 3.5 7 5 30
Forsa 23 May–3 Jun 2016 1,010 40 16 6 14 4 3 10 7 24
GMS 27 May–1 Jun 2016 1,021 48 17 6 10 5 2 8 4 31
GMS 15–19 Apr 2016 1,018 48 16 6 10 5 2 9 4 32
GMS 14–16 Mar 2016 1,015 48 16 5 11 5 2 9 4 32
GMS 12–17 Feb 2016 1,010 46 17 5 11 4 2 9 6 29
Infratest dimap 7–11 Jan 2016 1,000 47 16 5 12 3 3 8 6 31
GMS 28 Dec 2015–3 Jan 2016 1,019 45 19 6 10 4 3 7 6 26
GMS 12–18 Nov 2015 1,016 46 18 5 11 4 3 8 5 28
GMS 1–7 Oct 2015 1,019 46 18 6 12 6 – 5 7 28
Forsa 23 Sep–2 Oct 2015 1,007 43 19 5 11 4 3 6 9 24
GMS 10–16 Sep 2015 1,007 49 20 6 10 5 – 2 8 29
GMS 16–22 Jul 2015 1,011 47 20 6 10 5 – 2 10 27
GMS 18–24 Jun 2015 1,012 48 19 7 9 5 2 4 6 29
INSA 5–15 Jun 2015 651 46 20 8 8 4 3 4 7 26
GMS 7–13 May 2015 1,008 48 18 7 10 4 – 5 8 30
GMS 9–15 Apr 2015 1,016 48 19 7 10 4 2 4 6 29
Forsa 19–31 Mar 2015 1,266 47 19 7 11 3 2 4 7 28
Infratest dimap 8–12 Jan 2015 1,004 46 19 10 9 3 3 4 6 27
GMS Nov 2014 2,000 49 18 7 9 2 2 5 8 31
pollytix 13–23 Nov 2014 1,700 47 20 8 10 2 3 6 4 27
Emnid 1 Oct–4 Nov 2014 2,114 48 18 9 9 2 2 5 7 30
2014 European election 25 May 2014 – 40.5 20.1 4.3 12.1 3.1 2.9 8.1 9.0 20.4
Infratest dimap 10–12 Mar 2014 1,002 46 18 12 11 – – – 13 28
Infratest dimap 9–13 Jan 2014 1,004 49 19 9 10 4 2 – 7 30
2013 federal election 22 Sep 2013 – 49.3 20.0 2.7 8.4 5.1 3.8 4.3 6.4 29.3
2013 state election 15 Sep 2013 – 47.7 20.6 9.0 8.6 3.3 2.1 – 8.7 27.1

Policy areas relevant to elections

On behalf of the RTL/n-tv Trendbarometer, Forsa Institute interviewed the survey participants about the "biggest problems at state level".[20] "In Bavaria, 34 percent of those surveyed named the CSU and Prime Minister Markus Söder. 28 percent called the subject refugees, 26 percent 'the situation on the housing market'".[21]

Infratest dimap asked respondents to the ARD primary election survey which topic is very important for their election decision. In the order of most percentage points these were school and education policy (55%), nature conservation in Bavaria (46%), creation of affordable housing (45%), reduction of injustice in society (41%), security and police (40%), regulation of immigration (39%), the behaviour of Horst Seehofer in the federal government (26%), the cooperation of CDU, CSU and SPD in the federal government (21%).[22]

Voter turnout

The voter turnout in the city of Munich remained high. Until 2 p.m. it was 54.6 percent including the postal voters. In 2013, the turnout at that time was 49.7 percent.[23] The final total turnout was recorded as 72.3% of eligible voters.[2]

Election result

Summary of the 14 October 2018 election results[2] for the Landtag of Bavaria

Party Ideology Votes Votes % (change) Seats (change) Seats %
Christian Social Union (CSU) Christian democracy 5,046,081 37.2% −10.5pp 85 −16 41.5%
Alliance '90/The Greens (Grünen) Green politics 2,392,356 17.6% +9.0pp 38 +20 18.5%
Free Voters (FW) Regionalism 1,572,792 11.6% +2.6pp 27 +8 13.2%
Alternative for Germany (AfD) German nationalism 1,388,622 10.2% +10.2pp 22 +22 10.7%
Social Democratic Party (SPD) Social democracy 1,309,078 9.7% −11.0pp 22 −20 10.7%
Free Democratic Party (FDP) Liberalism 690,499 5.1% +1.8pp 11 +11 5.4%
The Left (Die Linke) Democratic socialism 437,888 3.2% +1.1pp 0 ±0 0%
Bavaria Party (BP) Bavarian nationalism 231,731 1.7% −0.4pp 0 ±0 0%
Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) Green conservatism 211,951 1.6% −0.5pp 0 ±0 0%
Pirate Party (Piraten) Pirate politics 59,145 0.4% −1.5pp 0 ±0 0%
Party for Franconia (Die Franken) Regionalism 31,453 0.2% −0.5pp 0 ±0 0%
Others 193,151 0 ±0 0%
Total 13,564,747 100.0% 205 +25

Aftermath

Polls on a favorite coalition

The percentages indicate the proportion of respondents who would most like the particular coalition available for selection. The missing values to 100% made no statement.

Institute Date CSU Alone CSU
Grüne		 Grüne
SPD
FDP
FW		 CSU
AfD		 CSU
FW
Civey[24] 18 September 2018 19.3 % 15.4% 15.3% 13.7% 10.1%

State government formation

Before the election, CSU faction leader Thomas Kreuzer declared that the CSU would not form a coalition with the AfD or the Greens after the election.[25]

The CSU agreed on a coalition deal to govern with the Free Voters of Bavaria on 4 November 2018.[26]

References
  1. Wahltermine
  2. Landtagswahl am 14. Oktober 2018 Archived 2018-12-08 at the Wayback Machine. Der Landeswahlleiter des Freistaates Bayern. Retrieved 1 December 2018.
  3. Nahles kritisiert Merkel, Der Spiegel, 10 October 2018
  4. Artikel 16 (1) Satz 3 Bayerische Verfassung
  5. Landeswahlleiter Bayern: Übersicht über Wahltermine und -ergebnisse, abgerufen am 7. September 2016
  6. Wahltermine
  7. Bayerischer Rechts- und Verwaltungsreport: Staatsregierung setzt 14.10.2018 als Termin für Landtagswahl fest, Meldung vom 20. Februar 2018
  8. Artikel 21 (1) Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz
  9. Artikel 5 (5) Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz
  10. Landeswahlleiter: Landtagswahl 2018: Fristen für die Aufstellung der Bewerber
  11. Artikel 28 (2) Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz
  12. Art. 24 LWG
  13. Art. 26 LWG
  14. Day, Wilf (2016-01-08). "Wilf Day's Blog: Open-list mixed member proportional models: The Bavarian example". Wilf Day's Blog. Retrieved 2018-12-26.
  15. Bavarian State Government: Bericht der Bayerischen Staatsregierung über die Veränderung der Einwohnerzahlen in den Wahl- und den Stimmkreisen nach Art. 5 Abs. 5 des Landeswahlgesetzes vom 6. September 2016 Archived 2016-09-15 at the Wayback Machine, abgerufen am 7. September 2016
  16. "Gesetz zur Änderung des Landeswahlgesetzes" (PDF). Bayerischer Landtag. 2017-03-31. Retrieved 2018-03-08.
  17. France-Presse, Agence (2018-04-25). "Bavarian leader orders Christian crosses on all state buildings". the Guardian. Retrieved 2018-05-31.
  18. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/07/germany-hardline-csu-leader-unhappy-merkel-migration-plan-180701174707967.html
  19. Schwarz gegen Grün faz.net, 18. September 2018
  20. "Viele Bayern halten Markus Söder für ein Problem". Die Zeit. 2018-08-13. Retrieved 2018-08-19.
  21. "Bayern sehen CSU und Söder als Problem". n-tv. 2018-08-13. Retrieved 2018-08-19.
  22. Ellen Ehni (2018-10-04). "CSU sackt auf 33 Prozent". Tagesschau.de. Retrieved 2018-10-05.
  23. "Münchens Wahlbeteiligung mittlerweile bei 54,6 Prozent". welt.de. Retrieved 14 October 2018.
  24. Alleinregierung der CSU ist beliebter als Koalition, focus.de, retrieved 18 September 2018.
  25. CSU schließt schwarz-grüne Koalition in Bayern aus. Welt Online, 8. September 2018.
  26. Bavarian conservatives and Free Voters reach coalition deal. POLITICO (Europe edition). Author - Joshua Posaner. Published 4 November 2018. Updated 5 November 2018. Retrieved 1 December 2018.
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