2021 London mayoral election

The 2021 London mayoral election will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect the mayor of London. It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections across England. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

2021 London mayoral election
6 May 2021
 
Candidate Sadiq Khan Shaun Bailey Siân Berry
Party Labour Conservative Green

Incumbent mayor

Sadiq Khan
Labour


The position of Mayor of London is currently held by Sadiq Khan of the Labour Party, who was elected in 2016 with 44.2% of the first-round votes and 56.8% of the second-round votes. Khan was re-selected as the Labour candidate in 2018, Shaun Bailey was selected as the Conservative Party's candidate, and Siân Berry was chosen as the Green Party candidate. Rory Stewart, a former Conservative MP and minister, ran as an independent before the delay in the election. Siobhan Benita, who had been the Liberal Democrat candidate, also withdrew after the election delay and was replaced as the party's candidate by Luisa Porritt.

Background

The mayor of London has a range of responsibilities covering policing, transport, housing, planning, economic development, arts, culture and the environment, controlling a budget of around £17 billion per year.[1] Mayors are elected for a period of four years, with no limit to the number of terms served.[2] Under the Greater London Authority Act 1999, mayoral elections are held on the first Thursday in May in the fourth calendar year following the previous election, unless varied by an order by the Secretary of State. On 13 March 2020, the government announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[3] The change in election date is to be ignored when calculating the four-yearly election cycle, so the following election will be held in 2024, and the term of the mayor elected in 2021 will accordingly be reduced to three years.[4] The incumbent Sadiq Khan, a member of the Labour Party, was elected in the 2016 election, defeating the Conservative candidate, Zac Goldsmith.

In the 2018 local elections across Greater London the Labour Party increased its number of council seats to the highest level since 1978. Both the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party also gained seats. In the 2019 European Parliament elections, the Liberal Democrats came first in London; winning the most votes in the London region with 27% and gaining three MEPs, the party's best ever result. The Labour Party came second, with 24% of the vote, losing two seats and ending up with two MEPs.[5] The Brexit Party gained two MEPs and the Green Party won 12.5% of the vote, holding its one seat. The Conservative Party failed to get a single MEP elected in London for the first time in the history of the party. In the 2019 general election, there was no net change in the number of seats for each party, although several seats changed hand. The biggest changes in vote share were for Labour, who saw a fall of 6.5%, and the Liberal Democrats, who were up 6.1%, compared to the previous 2017 general election.

Electoral system

The election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates.[6]

  • If a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins
  • If no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated
  • The first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count
  • Voters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded
  • Voters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count

This means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two[7]

All registered electors (British, Irish, Commonwealth and European Union citizens) living in London aged 18 or over will be entitled to vote in the mayoral election. Those who are temporarily away from London (for example, away working, on holiday, in student accommodation or in hospital) will also be entitled to vote in the mayoral election. The deadline to register to vote in the election will be announced nearer the election.[8]

Mayoral candidates require 330 signatures of people on the electoral register in London supporting the nomination, 10 from each London borough and 10 from the City of London, and must give a deposit of £10,000 (returned if they get more than 5% in the election).[9]

Campaign

Before the delay (2018–2020)

The incumbent mayor Sadiq Khan announced in June 2018 that he intended to stand for re-election.[10] Later that year, he was automatically re-selected to be Labour's candidate after receiving enough nominations from local party groups and affiliated trade unions to confirm.[11][12] His re-selection followed speculation that a figure from the left wing of his party could challenge him for the candidacy because of his disagreements about the "direction of the party" with Jeremy Corbyn, who was then the leader of the party nationally.[11] Khan announced in early 2020 that part of his election platform would be to deliver a "green new deal for the city", by making London carbon neutral by 2030 and opposing building a third runway at Heathrow Airport.[13]

The Conservative Party selected Shaun Bailey as its candidate in September 2018. In his selection campaign, he emphasised fighting crime, and proposed "maximising" CCTV coverage of London as an alternative to increasing the number of police officers, as well as automatic jail terms for those who commit acid attacks.[14][15] In the weeks after his selection, Bailey was criticised for sharing an Islamophobic tweet attacking Sadiq Khan,[16] as well as controversial views he had previously published on multiculturalism, Islam and Hinduism.[17] He will be the first Conservative mayoral candidate to simultaneously stand in the concurrent London Assembly election.[18]

The Green Party chose Siân Berry, who had previously been their mayoral candidate in the 2008 and 2016 elections and who had served as co-leader of the party since 2018, as their candidate in February 2019.[19] She launched her campaign with a focus on housing, calling for a "people's land bank" which would let communities bring empty buildings and land back into use.[20][21]

Siobhan Benita was selected as the Liberal Democrat candidate on 21 November 2018.[22][23] Benita had run as an independent candidate in the 2012 London mayoral election, coming fifth with 3.8% of first preference votes, behind fourth-placed Liberal Democrat candidate Brian Paddick, who received 4.2%. Benita criticised Khan's response to knife crime in London.[24] She formally launched her campaign for the London mayoral election on 13 February 2020. She said she wants to legalise cannabis in London in a bid to tackle rising levels of knife crime, removing power and money from gangs and freeing up police time. She has also pledged to cut violent crime, cut air pollution, declared an aim to reach zero-carbon by 2030 and reopen closed police stations.[25][26]

The former UK Independence Party (UKIP) leader Nigel Farage announced in August 2018 that he was considering running as the UKIP candidate, claiming that he would be more successful than the Conservatives.[27] He subsequently left UKIP in December 2018 and became the leader of the Brexit Party in March 2019.[28][29]

Rory Stewart, a former Conservative MP and minister, started a campaign as an independent before withdrawing after the election was postponed

On 4 October 2019, Rory Stewart announced he was standing as an independent candidate for the London mayoralty.[30] At the time he was sitting as an independent MP: he had been a Conservative MP and came fifth in the 2019 Conservative Party leadership election, but was then expelled from their Parliamentary group for his opposition to a "no deal" Brexit.[31] He left the House of Commons when he did not contest a seat in the December 2019 general election.[30] In February, he asked for people to sign up for him to stay on their sofa for a night to hear about their concerns.[32]

After postponement (2020–2021)

On 13 March 2020, the election was delayed to May 2021 due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, along with other local elections in England.[33] Stewart withdrew from the campaign in May 2020, saying the delay in the election meant it was impractical to sustain a campaign as an independent. He chose not to endorse any other candidate.[34]

On 27 July 2020, Benita also withdrew from the campaign citing the financial difficulties of sustaining her candidacy.[35] The Liberal Democrats selected Luisa Porritt as their new candidate on 13 October 2020. She called for the bar and restaurant curfew to be removed and said she would use empty office buildings for housing and revive town centres in the suburbs. She said that low traffic neighbourhood plans and the introduction of cycle lanes were being rushed and "a good idea being done the wrong way".[36]

Following the COVID-19 lockdown, public transport across the United Kingdom saw a sharp fall in public transport use, this led to the government giving Transport for London a bailout of £1.6 billion.[37] This bailout had conditions from the national government put on the London government to raise the fees on the service, increase the London congestion charge, end free bus travel for the young and suspend free travel at certain times for over-60s.[38] Bailey made the accusation that Khan has raised the congestion charge, which Full Fact said was inaccurate.[39] The bailout has contributed to concern that Johnson's government wishes to intrude on the Mayor's power.[40] Later in 2020, housing minister Robert Jenrick sent a letter to Khan stating that the council housing programme and the balloting of council housing estates on any estate changes put into the new 2020 London plan should be dropped, in addition to criticising Khan's idea of rent controls.[41] On 24 October, Khan wrote in LabourList that he would not support the proposals from the government.[42]

By January 2021, an independent candidate, Brian Rose, was reported to be second favourite in the contest by a bookmaker.[43] Rose runs the London Real podcast and has actively promoted misinformation related to the COVID-19 pandemic.[44][45][46] On 24 January 2021, Rose and six of his staff were fined by police for breaking lockdown rules while filming promotional material for his campaign.[47]

Also in January 2021, the government stated that door-to-door campaigning or leafleting by individual party activists was not allowed under COVID-19 lockdown restrictions.[48]

Candidates

Labour Party

The incumbent mayor Sadiq Khan, who announced in June 2018 that he would run for re-election,[49] became Labour's candidate after more than half of local parties and party affiliates in London voted to automatically reselect him.[50] The comedian Eddie Izzard and Tottenham MP David Lammy had previously been suggested as potential candidates for the party.[51]

Conservative Party

Shaun Bailey was selected as the candidate of the Conservative Party in September 2018. Bailey has been a member of the London Assembly since 2016, having previously worked as a youth worker and as a special adviser to David Cameron.[52][53]

The party had started the process for selecting their candidate in June 2018.[54][55] The Guardian reported that more than twenty prospective candidates applied, mostly from local government. A longlist of ten was published in July 2018.[11] Following interviews, the party produced a shortlist of three for London members of the Conservative Party to vote on using a preferential voting system.[56][53] To vote, members needed to reside in London and to have been members on 26 June 2018.[11][57]

Bailey had been endorsed in the party's selection process by the Evening Standard, as well as Conservative Police and Crime Commissioners Anthony Stansfeld, David Lloyd, Matthew Scott and Roger Hirst.[58][59]

Conservative London mayoral candidate selection [53]
Party Candidate 1st round 2nd round
 First round votes  Transfer votes 
Total Of round Transfers Total Of round
Conservative Shaun Bailey 3,164 43.2% 740 3,904 55.1%
Conservative Andrew Boff 2,591 35.4% 595 3,186 44.9%
Conservative Joy Morrissey 1,566 21.4%
Selection process

Shortlisted

Longlisted but not shortlisted

Applied but not longlisted

Previously discussed as potential candidates

Liberal Democrats

Luisa Porritt, a former Member of the European Parliament from 2019–2020 and a councillor in Camden, was selected as the party's candidate in October 2020. Initially, the party had selected Siobhan Benita, a former senior civil servant and 2012 independent candidate for London mayor. Benita withdrew in July 2020 after the election was postponed to 2021.

Siobhan Benita was initially selected as the Liberal Democrat candidate before withdrawing after the postponement of the election to 2021

In the first selection process, Benita was chosen to be the Liberal Democrat candidate on 21 November 2018.[22] The other shortlisted candidates were the anti-Brexit campaigner and former and 2020 London Assembly candidate Rob Blackie, Ebookers founder Dinesh Dhamija, and former parliamentary candidate, consultant and 2020 London Assembly candidate Lucy Salek.[78][22][79][80] Benita came first among first preferences, but with less than half the votes. After last-placed Lucy Salek was eliminated and second preferences among her voters tallied, Benita had a majority of the votes cast and was chosen as the party's candidate.[81]

The former Conservative parliamentary candidates Azi Ahmed and Kishan Devani had previously been discussed as potential Liberal Democrat candidates for the mayoralty, as had Rachel Johnson, a journalist and sister to Boris Johnson, the Conservative Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and a former mayor of London.[82][83]

Liberal Democrat London mayoral candidate selection [53]
Party Candidate 1st round 2nd round
 First round votes  Transfer votes 
Total Of round Transfers Total Of round
Liberal Democrats Siobhan Benita 1,548 46.2% 223 1,771 54.2%
Liberal Democrats Rob Blackie 614 18.3% 169 783 24.0%
Liberal Democrats Dinesh Dhamija 614 18.3% 98 712 21.8%
Liberal Democrats Lucy Salek 576 17.2%
Luisa Porritt, the Liberal Democrat candidate

However, on 27 July 2020, Benita announced her withdrawal from the candidacy, saying she was unable to commit to another year of campaigning following the election's postponement to 2021 given the unpaid nature of the role.[84] The party began a new selection process following Benita's withdrawal.[85] A shortlist of two candidates was announced on 10 September: Luisa Porritt and Geeta Sidhu-Robb.[86] Porritt had served as an MEP for London from 2019 to 2020 and as a councillor on Camden London Borough Council from 2018, having become group leader earlier in September 2020. Sidhu-Robb had previously worked as a lawyer, and was the founder and chief executive of the health company Nosh Detox. She had formerly served as the vice-chair of the People's Vote campaign and served as chair of its successor, Democracy Unleashed.[87]

On 13 September, two days after the shortlist was announced, footage of Sidhu-Robb from the 1997 general election, when she was the Conservative candidate for the seat of Blackburn, re-emerged in which Sidhu-Robb said (in what has been reported to be Urdu[88] or Gujarati[89]), "Don't vote for a Jew, Jack Straw is a Jew. If you vote for him, you're voting for a Jew. Jews are the enemies of Muslims".[88] A few hours later, Sidhu-Robb was suspended from the party and as a candidate.[90] Sidhu-Robb apologised for the comments and said she had regretted making them at the time.[91] Following these events, Benita revealed that she had not only stood down as candidate, but had also resigned from the party.[89]

As a result, a vote among the membership was held on the same timetable, but with Porritt standing against only the option to reopen nominations.[92] The result was announced on 13 October 2020, with Porritt being selected.[87][36]

Candidate Votes
Votes %
Luisa Porritt 3,722
87.9%
Reopen nominations 514
12.1%
Turnout 4,236 19.1%

Green Party

Siân Berry, who has been co-leader of the Green Party since 2018 and a Member of the London Assembly since 2016, was announced as the party's mayoral candidate on 14 February 2019. She had previously been the party's candidate for mayor of London in 2008, when she came fourth with 3.2% of the first preference vote, and in 2016, when she came third with 5.8% of the first preference vote. Nominations had opened in November 2018 and closed in January 2019, with four candidates duly nominated.[93][94] The other nominated candidates were former deputy leader and candidate for the UK Parliament, London Assembly and European Parliament Shahrar Ali, actor and Cities of London and Westminster December 2019 candidate Zack Polanski, as well as former senior civil servant, general election candidate and London Assembly candidate Peter Underwood.[94][95][96]

UKIP

In November 2020, UKIP announced Peter Gammons as their candidate.[97][98] Gammons is a motivational speaker and a former Brexit Party member, who defected to UKIP in September 2019. Although styled by the party and himself as Dr Gammons, his doctorate came from a US institution not governed by the US Department of Education.[99]

Other candidates

The following other candidates are seeking to stand:[100]

  • Mandu Reid is standing for the Women's Equality Party, replacing their original candidate, Sue Black.[101][102]
  • David Kurten, a former UKIP member of the London Assembly, announced his intention to campaign on a social conservative platform as an independent candidate;[103] he has since started his own party, the Heritage Party.
  • Piers Corbyn, a COVID-19 conspiracy theorist and brother of former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, announced his intention to stand as an independent on 1 January 2021 on a platform of opposing pandemic lockdown measures.[104]
  • Farah London, an entrepreneur, said she would stand as an independent candidate[105] with a focus on the cost of living in London and public safety. She also plans to reduce the congestion charge in London.[105] London was previously involved with the Conservative Party.[105]
  • Brian Rose, a podcaster who has actively promoted misinformation related to the COVID-19 pandemic,[106][107] is standing as an independent.[108]
  • Count Binface, satirical candidate created by comedian Jon Harvey, as an independent.[109] He is crowdfunding the £10,000 deposit required.[100]
  • Drillminister, London-based rapper, campaigning on reducing homelessness, improving transport, increasing mental health support, diversifying the Metropolitan Police Service and rehabilitation to curb crime and improving air quality in the capital as an independent candidate.[110][111]
  • Winston McKenzie, activist and perennial candidate, is intending to stand for the party he founded and leads,[100] Unity in Action.[112]
  • Charlie Mullins, founder of Pimlico Plumbers, as an independent.[113]
  • Nims Obunge, pastor, as an independent[112]
  • Rosalind Readhead, as an independent, campaigning on environmental issues.[114]
  • Kam Balayev, Renew Party.[100]
  • Valerie Brown, standing for Burning Pink,[115] which calls for the removal of government and for it to be replaced with citizens' assemblies. Brown was arrested and charged for covering a number of charity buildings in pink paint, protesting their inaction on climate change.[116]

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

After May 2020

Pollster Client Date(s)
conducted
Sample size First preference Final round
Khan Bailey Berry Porritt Others Lead Khan Bailey Lead
Redfield and Wilton Strategies N/A 13–14 Jan 2021 1,500 49% 28% 10% 11% 5%[lower-alpha 1] 21%
YouGov Queen Mary University of London 16–19 Nov 2020 1,048 51% 30% 9% 4% 5% 21% 64% 36% 28%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies N/A 15–17 Oct 2020 2,000 50% 28% 10% 10% 2% 22%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies N/A 7–8 Sep 2020 2,000 48% 28% 9% 11%[lower-alpha 2] 4% 20% 63% 37% 26%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies N/A 5–7 Aug 2020 2,500 49% 26% 9% 12%[lower-alpha 2] 4% 23% 61% 39% 22%

Before May 2020

The polls below were taken when the election was expected in May 2020. Both Rory Stewart and Siobhan Benita both dropped out of the election following its delay.

Pollster Client Date(s)
conducted
Sample size First preference Final round
Khan Bailey Berry Benita Stewart Others Lead Khan Bailey Berry Benita Stewart Others Lead
YouGov Queen Mary University of London 2–6 Mar 2020 1,002 49% 24% 7% 4% 13% 4%[lower-alpha 3] 25% 67% 33% 34%
39% 21% 18%
41% 18% 23%
39% 27% 12%
YouGov Queen Mary University of London 30 Oct–4 Nov 2019 1,175 45% 23% 7% 8% 13% 4% 22% 44% 25% 19%
33% 25% 8%
35% 22% 13%
36% 25% 11%
YouGov Queen Mary University of London 7–10 May 2019 1,015 43% 23% 16% 10% 8% 20% 64% 36% 28%
YouGov Queen Mary University of London 3–6 Dec 2018 1,020 55% 28% 7%[lower-alpha 4] 4% 6% 27% 62% 38% 24%

Notes

  1. 2% for Gammons (UKIP) 2%
  2. At this point, Benita had withdrawn and Porritt had not yet been selected, so the question asked about "a Liberal Democrat candidate".
  3. Mandu Reid: 1%
  4. The poll question included Siân Berry as the Green Party candidate, even though she had not been selected at that time.

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